Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of December 14th! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Major Indices End of Week: Major Futures Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: Monday Electoral college votes cast for presidential candidates Tuesday FOMC begins two-day meeting 8:30 a.m. Import prices 8:30 a.m. Empire state manufacturing 9:15 a.m. Industrial production 4:00 p.m. TIC data Wednesday 8:30 a.m. Retail sales 8:30 a.m. Business leaders’ survey 9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI 9:45 a.m. Services PMI 10:00 a.m. Business inventories 10:00 a.m. NAHB survey 2:00 p.m. Fed decision 2:30 p.m. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell press briefing Thursday 8:30 a.m. Initial jobless claims 8:30 a.m. Housing starts 8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed manufacturing Friday 8:30 a.m. Current account
Dow Clings To 30K Amid IPOpalooza, Bonds Bid On Brexit & Bailout Busts This is not a bubble... Source: Bloomberg This is not complacency... Source: Bloomberg And this is not a short squeeze... Source: Bloomberg Trade Accordingly. Stocks were broadly lower on the week (with only Small Caps managing gains on the week)... The Dow benefited from an epic meltup in DIS (which added 150 points to the index today) Source: Bloomberg Here's The Dow this week...pinging around like a penny stock desperate to close above 30k (remember yesterday's close was 29,999)... Energy stocks outperformed on the week amid total chaotic swings. Tech and Financials lagged on the week... Source: Bloomberg VIX was higher on the week, decoupling from stocks... Source: Bloomberg Bonds were bid all week with the long-end outperforming... Source: Bloomberg 30Y yields are coiling... Source: Bloomberg And 2Y Yields plunged back near record lows... Source: Bloomberg Real Yields fell notably this week (suggesting more upside for gold)... Source: Bloomberg The Dollar ended the week higher amid utterly farcical swings intraday Source: Bloomberg Cable had a roller coaster week too amid Brexit headlines... Source: Bloomberg Bitcoin ended the week back below $18,000 as the crypto market broadly rolled over this week... Source: Bloomberg Commodities ended the week mixed with silver down 1%, crude up around 1% and copper and gold unch (despite some big intraweek swings)... Source: Bloomberg Either copper's too high, gold's too low, or yields need to go way higher...pick your poison Source: Bloomberg And finally, circling back to the start... this is not a bubble and this market is not expensive... Source: Bloomberg The big boys ain't playing along... Source: Bloomberg Even the 'soft' survey data is starting to give up hope... Source: Bloomberg
Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2020- S&P sectors for the past week-
Not All Bad for Small Business Tue, Dec 8, 2020 This morning the NFIB released their monthly reading on the small business sector. With case counts rising throughout November, small business optimism took a hit. Compared to September and October's identical readings of 104, November's reading fell to 101.4. Although that is lower, it remains above the levels seen from March through the summer. Additionally, there were several silver linings in this month's report. Glancing across the various components and sub-indices of the report, breadth was pretty mixed. Of the ten components of the headline number, six fell and the remaining four were higher. Of the other indices that are not inputs to the headline number, half of the indices were higher while another two were unchanged, and the other two were lower. As for the most pressing problems reported by small businesses, there was little change overall. Quality of labor remains the most widely reported problem, stealing share from those reporting the cost of labor as the biggest issue. The second biggest issue and the only other one to see an uptick in November was taxes. Perhaps due to the results of the election and the prospects of higher taxes down the road, the percentage of respondents reporting taxes as the most pressing issue rose 3 percentage points to 20%. Taking a deeper dive into the individual components of the report, the various indices concerning employment metrics were pretty strong in November. While the index for actual employment changes remains negative meaning more businesses reported declines in employment rather than increases, that is not to say businesses are not looking to gain employees. For starters, a higher number of responding firms (34% vs 33% in October) reported that they had at least one unfilled job opening in November. That is in the top decile of all historical readings. Breaking that number down further, the NFIB highlighted that 29% of those were for skilled workers and 13% were for unskilled workers. Additionally, businesses do plan to fill open positions in the near future. The index for plans to increase employment rose from 18 in October to 21 last month. Overall, more than half of firms said that they either hired or are trying to hire as 30% reported that either cost or quality of labor have been the biggest roadblocks to their business. Given these apparently tight labor conditions, the indices for compensation and plans to increase compensation were both higher. We would also note that the divergence between businesses wanting/trying to fill positions and declines in the actual number of employees reported is consistent with what we saw in last week's data from the ISM report. Rising employment and compensation can be justified when looking at the indices concerning sales and earnings. While these broadly took turns lower this month, they remain at readings that are consistent with more companies than not seeing sales growth. The index for earnings changes turned a bit lower falling from -4 to -7. Despite that, it is still a level that is at the top of its historic range. Additionally, a net 5% of reporting firms saw higher sales over the past three months, down slightly from 6% last month. In turn, the net percentage of owners expecting sales to be higher also fell to a reading of 10% from 11% last month. Even though sales were a bit weaker, prices have continued to rise. The index for companies reporting higher prices rose from 15 to 18. That is the highest level of that index since a reading of 19 in May of 2018. NFIB highlighted further that the most common businesses to report higher prices were retail (28%) and wholesale (23%). Although the decline in expected sales was modest and businesses plan to increase hiring, the index that took the biggest hit in November was the reading for expectations for the economy to improve. That index for the general outlook of business conditions fell 19 points month over month to a low reading of 8. That is the lowest level since March when the index was 3 points lower at 5. Additionally, the only time the index has declined by more in just one month was in November of 2012 when it fell from 0 to -38 in just one month. Other indices like those for expenditures and whether or not it is a good time to expand similarly remain weak, but did not see the same sort of dramatic declines. Looking at other indices though, this decline appears to have been relatively extreme. A net 5% of owners report inventory levels are too low which is tied with September for a record high. While a greater share of firms plan to increase rather than reduce inventories, that index did fall from a 48-year high of 12 last month down to 5 in November. Despite that historically large single month decline, this monthly reading is still at a strong level. Meet the Nasdaq 100's Post-Election Leaders Thu, Dec 10, 2020 The Nasdaq 100 finally made a new high on Tuesday before pulling back yesterday, but in the run-up to new highs in the post-election rally, it hasn't been the same old crew of stocks pushing the index higher. While the Nasdaq 100 is up about 12.5% since the election, thirteen stocks are up by more than twice the amount of the index itself. Leading the way higher, Moderna (MRNA) is up over 100% after positive news regarding its vaccine. After MRNA, shares of Pinduoduo (PDD), a Chinese e-commerce play, have rallied more the 50%, rising from $97.72 up to $154.00. Tesla (TSLA) rounds out the top three with a gain of 47% in just the last five weeks. The next two stocks on the list - Applied Materials (AMAT) and Micron (MU) - can hardly be considered emerging stocks. In addition to those two stocks from the semiconductor sector, three others from the sector made the cut (LRCX. MCHP, and QCOM) as chips have been red-hot. At the bottom of the table, we have also included the performance of the five mega-cap stocks of the Nasdaq 100. While all five stocks outperformed for much of 2020, not a single one of them is outperforming the Nasdaq 100 since Election Day, and only Apple (AAPL) is anywhere close to matching the performance of the index itself. The chart below shows the performance of an equally-weighted basket of the five mega-cap stocks over the last year. From 9/2 to 9/23, this basket of stocks pulled back more than 16%, and while it has been steadily grinding higher in the eleven weeks since that low, up until this point, the prior highs from September haven't even come into play. Sentiment Still Overwhelmingly Bullish Thu, Dec 10, 2020 For the third week in a row, just under half of the respondents to the weekly AAII sentiment survey reported as bullish. This week's bullish sentiment reading came in at 48.06%, which was down just slightly from 49.07% last week. While lower in the past week, bullish sentiment remains elevated in the top decile of readings over the past decade. Granted, it is also still below the high of 55.84% from November 12th. Similarly, the Investor Intelligence survey of equity newsletter writers also saw bullish sentiment drop slightly, falling from 64.7% to 64.4%. But again just like the AAII survey, that is a historically elevated level in the top 3% of all readings since 1963. With bullish sentiment lower, a higher percentage of investors reported as bearish. Whereas last week saw bearish sentiment fall to 22.66%, the lowest level since the first week of 2020, this week bearish sentiment rose 4.2 percentage points to 26.86%. That is still below the reading of 27.47% from the last week of November and at the low end of the past few years' range. In terms of bearish sentiment, the Investors Intelligence survey is again echoing these results. This survey saw bearish sentiment rise 0.1 percentage points to 16.8%. Overall, sentiment remains heavily in favor of bulls. As shown below, for both the AAII and Investors Intelligence surveys, the bull-bear spreads are at historically high levels. Rally To Resume Mid-Month - Typical December Seasonal Pattern For the most part, this December has unfolded in rather typical seasonal fashion. The market started the month off with solid gains and continued to rally through the fourth trading day before turning somewhat mixed. Russell 2000 and NASDAQ advanced an additional two trading days while DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 see-sawed essentially sideways until yesterday, the seventh trading day of December. Currently the major indexes are navigating the often-dull period that has historically begun around the fourth trading day of the month through the eighth. Afterwards, later this week into early next week, another patch of weakness is possible. Then right around mid-month, the rally that began in at the beginning of November, is likely to resume. The resumption could be bumpy but once quarterly options expiration passes our Santa Claus Rally will begin on the open of trading on December 24. Since 1969, S&P 500 has enjoyed an average gain of 1.3% during the Santa Claus Rally that spans the last five trading days of this year and the first two trading days of next year. Outlook 2021: Focus on International 12/10/2020 This week we released Outlook 2021: Powering Forward, with our 2021 market and economic views. In the past several Outlook publications, we have favored the United States over developed international in equity allocations (international developed markets are composed primarily of Europe and, to a lesser amount, Japan). Each time we settled on those views, and as valuations for stocks outside the United States got relatively cheaper, we had thought we might be getting closer to an eventual sustainable rotation. But we didn’t get there. It’s been like taking a road trip with the kids and hearing, “Are we there yet?” too many times. Continue to Favor the United States This year is shaping up in a similar way. We continue to favor US equities over their developed international counterparts, as we noted in Outlook 2021, even though the valuation gap between the US and these international markets has widened further over the past year. But as we look ahead, we can envision a scenario at some point in 2021 when markets may respond to a coordinated global economic expansion after the developed world gets through the pandemic. A weaker US dollar may help. Japan may get a boost from the massive amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan have implemented to boost its economy. A rising tide may lift all boats—including those that have not been the strongest in recent years. We simply think now is too early to make that shift in a meaningful way. Favorable Emerging Markets Outlook The outlook for emerging markets stocks looks better to us as 2021 approaches. This asset class is made up mostly of Chinese equities but includes several other Asian, European, and Latin American countries that index-provider MSCI classifies as emerging or developing. “We expect emerging market economies to lead the global economic rebound in 2021,” said LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “We believe growth in international developed economies may lag behind the United States, although a strong fiscal response may help Japan.” LPL Research forecasts global gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the 4.5–5% range in 2021, as shown in the LPL Chart of the Day. Is Inflation Looming? The November reading for the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the most well-known measure of inflation, was released Thursday, December 10, and while both the headline and “core” readings (excluding food and energy) came in slightly higher than the Bloomberg-surveyed economists’ consensus, core inflation remains tame at 1.6% over the trailing year. Inflation is likely to pick up as the economy improves and may run a little hotter than we’ve seen in recent years in 2021, but we believe the risks of a substantial inflation surprise over the next year is limited. “Congress and the Fed provided massive stimulus this year and it seems like that should be inflationary,” said LPL Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick, “but it’s important to remember that the stimulus was there to fill a giant hole from lost wages and an economy running well below its potential.” As shown in today’s LPL Chart of the Day, core inflation on a trailing-year basis still has some catching up to do, although the one-month reading is now largely consistent with pre-Covid levels. inflation over the last decade has remained subdued and largely steady.
Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 12.11.20- Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices- Here are the current major indices rally levels from correction low as of week ending 12.11.20-
Stock Market Analysis Video for December 11th, 2020 Video from AlphaTrends ShadowTrader Video Weekly 12.13.20 Video from ShadowTrader
Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead. ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time*** Monday 12.14.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! (NONE.) Monday 12.14.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! (NONE.) Tuesday 12.15.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! (NONE.) Tuesday 12.15.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 12.16.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 12.16.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 12.17.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 12.17.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 12.18.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 12.18.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!
And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead- ($FDX $HEXO $RAD $NKE $BB $CTK $GIS $ACN $TTC $LEN $WGO $JBL $DRI $UXIN $CNTG $SAFM $MTSC $ABM $WOR $AOUT $NDSN $APOG $DL $BLBD $AIR $ASPU $APDN $CAMP $SCHL $QTT $SCSC $VNCE $RFIL $CSBR $NAV) If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here- Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning December 14th, 2020 <-- click there to view!
Was a nice week for DIS last week. I just checked finviz today, and they have a 41.6% growth rate forecasted. Right there with NFLX's 41%.
Thanks. You too @T0rm3nted! and everyone else in here as well of course. Just dropping in here for a quick bit. Rarely have I had any time to log in here at any point during the week the past few months, but as we are approaching the holidays, my stress and workload levels have FINALLY started to ease a bit. It has admittedly been quite a while, and if I'm being wholeheartedly honest here, I have been very much out of the loop as far as the market action has gone of late, really ever since the late summer. However, my overall workload should be decreasing a lot more in the new year, which means I could potentially return back to somewhat of a normal life again here on the forums lol. That being said, I haven't been entirely MIA from the forums, I've been mostly working in the "background" here nowadays. Just haven't really been all that interested to discuss the market action of late though, but that will likely change in 2021. BTW, I'm not too sure how many of you ever frequent the Discord Live Chat? I know @T0rm3nted logs in there from time to time. Admittedly, I have been largely spending most of my free time programming discord bots for the chat server the past few weeks. In fact, I literally just completed a massive undertaking the past week, which I thought was going to be impossible, but am super impressed with myself at how well it came out! So much so, that I wanted to share it with you guys here as well. If any of you ever have some free time on your hands, come check out the live chat. Here is the official invite link: https://discord.gg/SnV4gWAMQZ You guys may have already known this, but in case you didn't, that chat is connected through our Reddit community, but is also shared with our Stockaholics community. Here is just a quick screenshot to give you guys a brief visual. I've codeded quite a ton of discord bots for the chat over the years, but this most recent one was maybe my largest project that I had ever taken on and completed successfully. On the right sidebar of the screenshot below is where I did my work. I created bots in the chat that auto updates market data on 5 minute intervals with real-time data from my broker's API. Would be really cool to have you guys log in there and check it out one of these days. Just saying. My login name is the same as on all of my stock communities. Anyway, so yeah that's that. Sorry to have spammed the weekly thread with this. Just wanted to share that with you guys cause I really worked crazy hard to make that all work in there. Hope you all have been doing well!
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The thing I've noticed about DIS streaming service is content is added to it SO SLOW, or I'm not noticing it. Netflix there's a ton more content with huge updates monthly. New seasons of shows you've already watched with notifications they're coming, etc. It's a far superior service. The upside of Disney is for children shows and movies with bigger names for kids. A lot of it is pure nostalgia though. I remember it being super popular with millennials when it launched so they could watch the movies they watched as kids. A lot of my peers said some of those movies didn't hold up to what they remembered and kids didn't like the worse graphics than they're used to. My 3 year old did not care for Jungle Book, Bambi, etc. even though I watched them a lot as a kid. My wife who was obsessed with DIS streaming service abandoned it after about a month. I'd say our breakdown of streaming services is something like: Netflix - 80% Prime - 15% DIS - 5% We also have Xfinity comcast as our cable provider mostly for anything live we watch which is basically only sports or occasionally the news.
