Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of December 21st! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Major Indices End of Week: Major Futures Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: Tuesday (all times ET) 8:30 a.m. Q3 GDP final reading 10 a.m. Existing home sales Wednesday 8:30 a.m. Personal income 9 a.m. FHFA home prices 10 a.m. New home sales 10 a.m. Consumer sentiment Thursday 8:30 a.m. Jobless claims 8:30 a.m. Durable goods 1 p.m. Early Christmas Eve closing for stock market Friday Markets closed for Christmas holiday
Silver Soars, Bitcoin Roars, Stocks Snore As COVID-Relief Rancor Continues A very mixed week into quad witch with Small Caps soaring and S&P and Dow snoring until the last few minutes of the week... Small Caps are at their strongest relative to mega-tech Nasdaq since March... Source: Bloomberg All of which makes you wonder... Energy stocks were the week's biggest laggards, despite a strong week in crude. Tech outperformed... Source: Bloomberg Treasury yields were extremely choppy on the week but ended higher and steeper... Source: Bloomberg 10Y Yield pushed back towards 95bps... a key resistance level... Source: Bloomberg The dollar extended its weakness (down 4 of the last 5 weeks)... Source: Bloomberg Testing down to critical support... Source: Bloomberg As the dollar dives, yuan surges up near critical levels... Source: Bloomberg A big week for cryptos overall... Source: Bloomberg Bitcoin soared to record highs with its best week since June 2019... Source: Bloomberg While gold was up on the week... Source: Bloomberg Bitcoin dominated it, pushing up to over 12x... Source: Bloomberg Silver soared above its 50- and 100-DMA this week, back above $26, its highest in 3 months... Source: Bloomberg This was Silver's 2nd best week in 4 months, crude rallied strongly again and copper and gold managed gains... Source: Bloomberg Gold gained but not as much as silver, unable to break $1900... Source: Bloomberg Sending Gold/Silver to its lowest since September... Source: Bloomberg WTI topped $49 today, its highest since Feb... Source: Bloomberg Finally, so much for that brief trip away from total and utter complacency as the Put-Call ratio is back at 14 year lows... Source: Bloomberg
Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2020- S&P sectors for the past week-
An Overbought World Fri, Dec 18, 2020 The majority of global equity markets tracked in our Global Macro Dashboard found a short-term bottom at some point in late October including the US. As shown below, of the 23 ETFs tracking each of these countries' equity markets, nearly all are up double digits since the end of October. A dozen have risen over 20% and Brazil (EWZ) has risen more than any other country, gaining over 40%. China (MCHI), on the other hand, is the only hold out as it has risen just 3.44% over the past month and a half. Given these moves, most of these ETFs are overbought as defined as trading at least one standard deviation above their 50-DMAs. Only Hong Kong (EWH) and China (MCHI) are not overbought by this measure while India (INDA) is currently the most overbought ETF trading 1.92 standard deviations from its 50-DMA. That is even though it is at the low end of the performance range of these country ETFs listed. Top-performing Brazil, on the other hand, is the second most overbought ETF trading 1.85 standard deviations above its 50-day. In percentage terms, Brazil is also the ETF trading the furthest above its 50-DMA. In the charts below, we show the trading range charts of each of these ETFs over the past six months. As shown, most are fairly elevated at or near some of the highest levels of the past six months. With that being said, there are some country ETFs that have seen a bit of a drift lower in recent days and weeks. For example, France (EWQ), Hong Kong (EWH), and Singapore (EWS) have all made a move lower within their respective trading ranges recently even though they are still overbought. Similarly, Sweden (EWD) has been more or less trading sideways since late November. The same had been true for Switzerland (EWL) and Norway (ENOR) until they began to break out to the upside in recent days. Click here to view Bespoke's premium membership options for our best research available. Leading Indicators Positive Fri, Dec 18, 2020 Leading Economic Indicators for the month of November came in higher than expected this morning, rising 0.6% versus estimates for an increase of 0.5%. One way we like to track the index of Leading Economic Indicators is to compare its ratio vs the index of Coincident Economic Indicators. The chart below shows the monthly ratio going back to 1959 with recessions highlighted in gray. If you aren't familiar with this ratio, it tends to rise during economic expansions and then roll over in advance of recessions. Then, towards the end of the recession, the ratio bottoms out and starts to improve. Even ahead of the current recession, the LEI/CEI ratio peaked in September 2018. While the pace of the decline wasn't nearly as steep as it was heading into prior recessions, the weakness in the ratio suggests that the economy was already at risk of a slowdown before the COVID outbreak. Who knows? If COVID never happened, maybe the US economy would have experienced a recession at some point in 2020 anyway. While it's a bit hard to see in the chart above, as the shorter-term chart of the LEI/CEI ratio below shows, November's reading isn't far from the pre-recession highs reached 26 months ago. Why is this important? For starters, at 26 months, the current streak without a new high isn't even the longest we have seen since the end of the financial crisis. The longest streak without a new high was 27 months from mid-2011 through mid-2013. Therefore, if the ratio rises again next month and makes a new high, it will be tied with that prior streak, one which didn't even result in a recession. More importantly, though, in every prior recession since 1960, the LEI/CEI ratio has never been this close to a new high and still in a recession. This means one of two things - either the LEI/CEI ratio has become flawed or the recession that began in February has been over for months. Real Santa Claus Rally Stock Trader’s Almanac founder and creator, Yale Hirsch, discovered and named the Santa Claus Rally in the 1972 in the Almanac and coined the phrase: “If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.” The “Santa Claus Rally” begins on the open on Christmas Eve day December 24and lasts until the second trading day of 2021. Average S&P 500 gains over this seven trading-day range since 1969 are a respectable 1.3%. This is our first indicator for the market in the New Year. Years when the Santa Claus Rally (SCR) has failed to materialize are often flat or down. The last six times SCR (the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the New Year) has not occurred were followed by three flat years (1994, 2004 and 2015) and two nasty bear markets (2000 and 2008) and a mild bear that ended in February 2016. As Yale Hirsch’s now famous line states, “If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.” VIX Run Above 20 Tops 200 Days Tue, Dec 15, 2020 With today's close, the VIX has now stuck above 20 for 207 trading days and counting. That marks the fourth-longest streak since the inception of the volatility index, and is approaching the late-1990s and early-2000s record runs. The index was above 20 for 239 trading days through the end of June 1999, and 236 trading days through May 8th, 2003. Of course, from 2008 to December 21st of 2009, the VIX was over 20 for 331 trading days (more than a year). Surprisingly, the current VIX streak has had an average reading higher than the two longer streaks in 1999 and 2003. The average 32.0 reading over its course so far is second only to the streak recorded over the global financial crisis. It's also interesting to note that at this stage in the streak (207 trading days), the current run has a higher reading than the three streaks which actually lasted longer. Wretched Retail Sales Wed, Dec 16, 2020 If Congress was looking for any evidence that additional relief for Americans was needed, the November Retail Sales report should provide some ammunition. At the headline level, Retail Sales fell 1.1%, which was nearly four times the decline of consensus forecasts. Stripping out Autos and Gas, the numbers were just as bad. As if that wasn’t enough, October’s report was also revised significantly lower dropping from a gain of 0.3% at the headline level to a decline of 0.1%. Adding it all together, Retail Sales for November were 1.5% lower than what was originally reported in October’s report. Breadth in this month’s report was also weak. Of the thirteen sectors that comprise the total pie, all but three of them were lower on the month. If you were expecting a new sweater this Christmas, don’t hold your breath as sales of Clothing were down close to 7%. Other big decliners included Bars & Restaurants (-3.99%) and Electronics & Appliances (-3.49%). With more cities imposing restrictions on activity, sales at Gas Stations also declined 2.41%. Were it not for the historic declines we saw earlier this year, drops of this magnitude would be considered pretty steep, but after the COVID shutdowns, nothing is a surprise anymore. Not every aspect of the Retail Sales report was weak, though. Bright spots included Food & Beverage Stores, Building Materials, and Online– all sectors you would expect to see hold up well as Americans hunker down. The characteristics behind the total level of sales have changed markedly in the post-COVID world. In our just-released B.I.G. Tips report, we looked at these changing dynamics to highlight the groups that have been the biggest winners and losers from the shifts. Chart of the Year Stocks continue to surprise to the upside, with the Russell 2000 Index (small caps) and the Nasdaq making new all-time highs on Tuesday. The S&P 500 Index, a chip shot from new highs, already has made 30 new highs so far this year. “One thing that surprises many investors is new highs happen in clusters that can last a decade or more,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Given that this cluster of new highs is only seven years old, history would suggest that we don’t bet against several more years of new highs.” One of the more amazing charts (and our friend Sam Ro at Yahoo! Finance called this the chart of the year) is how this new bull market has tracked the 2009 bull market. We’ve been sharing this chart for months now, noting if things continued to track 2009, then significant gains could be in store and sure enough that has played out. Here’s the catch, continued strength could still be in store, as 2009 continued to gain the next few months from this point forward. Lastly, will Santa come in December? We discussed this in detail at the start of the month in Big Gains Steal From Santa, but the truth of the matter is the S&P 500 Index is flat on average half way through the month and nearly all of the impressive December gains take place the second half of the month. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, if Santa is going to come in 2020, now is the time for the reindeer to get ready and for stocks to potentially bounce. Homebuilder Sentiment Unfazed Wed, Dec 16, 2020 In every month from August through November, NAHB's reading on homebuilder sentiment came in at record highs. That streak was bound to come to an end eventually, and it happened this month. The December reading released today was expected to decline from a record of 90 down to 88. Instead, the drop was even larger as the index fell to 86. Although lower, that is still the second-highest reading on record dating back to 1985. Each of the sub-indices were also lower this month with the declines in the bottom decile of all monthly moves, though again, the indices remain at historically strong levels in the top 1% of all readings. For the sub-index that tracks present sales, just like the headline number, the four-point decline in December hasn't done much damage as it was also still the second-highest reading on record. The indices for future sales and traffic likewise fell an identical four points. For future sales, the decline only brings it back to where it stood in September and the index for Traffic is at the lowest level since August. Those are the third and fourth highest readings on record, respectively. The picture also remains strong based on regions in spite of broad declines. While every region experienced a decline, the West's was the smallest. Additionally, the index for the West is the highest of the four regions. The Northeast, on the other hand, has the lowest reading for sentiment, though, it too is in the top 2% of all readings. Elsewhere in housing data today, the MBA's weekly mortgage application data showed another uptick in purchase applications. Purchase apps rose 1.8% week over week, and while still off the highs from the last week of November, purchases are running at the strongest level in over a decade. Even though this data remains broadly strong, homebuilder stocks have not been reflecting it. As shown below, the S&P 1500 Homebuilders group has yet to take out its October 15th high, currently trading 11.51% below that level. Since that high, the index has also fallen below its 50-DMA with multiple failed attempts to move back above. In fact, of the 43 trading days since that high, the group has closed below its 50-DMA on all but 10 days. While that paints a somewhat negative technical picture, on the bright side, the group has yet to make a lower low.
Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 12.18.20- Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices- Here are the current major indices rally levels from correction low as of week ending 12.18.20-
Stock Market Analysis Video for December 18th, 2020 Video from AlphaTrends ShadowTrader Video Weekly 12.20.20 Video from ShadowTrader
Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead. ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time*** Monday 12.21.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Monday 12.21.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 12.22.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 12.22.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 12.23.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE. Wednesday 12.23.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE. Thursday 12.24.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE. Thursday 12.24.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE. Friday 12.25.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE. (U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF CHRISTMAS DAY.) Friday 12.25.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE. (U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF CHRISTMAS DAY.)
And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead- ($KMX $FDS $PAYX $CTAS $NEOG $NVCE $HEI $EPAC $CVGW $YCBD $LESL) If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here- Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning December 21st, 2020 <-- click there to view!
Here is the Globex futures holiday schedule for this upcoming Christmas Day holiday: Here's to a VERY MERRY CHRISTMAS to all of our members here at Stockaholics! Have a great holiday with your families and friends and stay healthy and safe everyone! Many thanks goes out to all of you who keep this forum active on a daily basis for this seriously cannot be said enough times IMHO. thank you, Thank You, THANK YOU!
Nice bounce back for ABNB intraday, travel stocks getting hit a little bit today on the virus fears in Europe
This was posted on 17th but there's still juice to this call, if it holds. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/s...-s-p-500-surges-5-in-next-2-weeks-11608225371 Stock market timing expert calls for top at SPX 3907 (currently 3695), SPY 390.05, NDX 13240. Then a 5%-11% drop in first half of 2021. Just hoping there's no drop before end of year, as I'm trying to collect the dividends in my retirement fund.
Covid-19: More than 40 countries ban UK arrivals - BBC News The US didn't ban UK travel, let's hope it won't end up being a bad decision
PTON surges to the new ATH NLS also bouncing back nicely today after it got hammered in recent weeks on the reopening/vaccine rotation
