so, it looks like this was the worst first trading day of a new year for the market since 2001, and the first red first trading day since 2016 meanwhile, the 7-day santa claus rally period (which is typically gauged from the last 5 trading days of the old year, and the first 2 trading days of the new year) ends at market close tomorrow. i admittedly have not been keeping track of that this time around lol. but, ima do it on my google spreadsheet momentarily to see where we're at with that and i will share that in here once i have my findings
Thanks @bigbear0083 Did I miss the January indicator post? Something about the first 5 days of January, and the whole month of January; think you did it last year. Another one I hear that is interesting is if you fall below the low of December, in the first quarter of the new year. Although no stats to confirm this one.
haha, so basically flat after today's close will be interesting to see where this closes out tomorrow the scr (santa claus rally) is pretty widely watched to see how the trading year historically performs. not always of course , and i'll try to dig up some of the recent stats on that. but, if i'm not mistaken, i think the scr has been somewhat of an indicator on how the year goes.
ah yes! the "ffd" first five days indicator. and the january barometer (full month of january performance). i'll try to dig up some stats now and see what i can find! oh and yeah i heard about that december low one as well. think i stumbled across that one the other week actually. i'll check.
oops, i just need to make a small correction to my above comment. this was actually the worst first trading day for the spx since 2016, but just narrowly so lol. it woulda been the worst first day since 2001 if not for that late spurt in that final hour though lol
Premarket started with about +150 and ended with almost -400 (low abt -700). With new stimulus money and more funds to IRAs and other funds due to new year, market was still significantly down with wild swing. Made some $$ with the YM swing . UK Covid lockdown is in play, ZM is up but techs including AMZN are down... tomorrow would be interesting, curios how EU would do tonight. This is concern.
haha, likewise! and admittedly i've missed you guys lots (no joke here!). the last few months were admittedly tough for me. but, happy to say slowly getting over that, and should *hopefully* have a bit more free time to post in here, and who knows, maybe place some trades here and there as well lol! it has admittedly been far too long
Those recovery stocks like airlines and hotels sold off a little bit today for sure, stocks that benefit from Covid like TMO and QDEL outperformed
Just saw your real time tracker, guess there were some decent up days at the end of December, thought we don't stand much of a chance of a SCR after today
this chart here is one of the reasons why i can't get too terribly excited about the downside *yet*, and a lasting one at that. the previous best starts to a new bull market which were in 1982 and 2009 rocketed higher for months to start, then got choppy over the next several months, but not selling off too hard or revisiting any lower levels. typically after a pretty historic move up from the bottom, some choppy action is to be expected and is normal. but, no major down leg like the one we saw back during q1 of last year.
can't find recent stats on the "ffd" (first five days) indicator yet, but still looking. but here's a little something i found now. here's the historical market performance during that traditional 7-day SCR period over the past 20 years- ...and here are the years when we had a red SCR, and how the market performed for january and the full year. seems only 2 years it didn't really work, 2004 and most recently 2015.
ah nevermind! here we are lol. this chart here has all 3 (january early indicator trifecta as its called) which has the SCR (santa claus rally), FFD (first five days), and the JB (january barometer) since dating back to 1950. with the historical market performance for february; the final 11 months of the trading year; and for the full year as well.
also just found this, but post-election january's since 1950 have historically been pretty positive. so we'll have to see how this months plays out after just having one of the worst first trading days to start a year today. chart courtesty of sta (stock trader's almanac)-
haha yep. also i guess i should make my sheet public so you guys can track it for when the SCR officially concludes at tomorrow's market close. -> Click Here! <-
oh wait a minute here guys lol. i think i have my starting dates on my scr tracker spreadsheet wrong there. i had it starting from 12/24 market close when it should actually be starting from the 12/23 market close. thus, i wasn't even counting 12/24 then oops! you can tell i'm a little rusty since coming back from my hiatus here lol. so here's the update on that- this should be correct now. (so the scr is still holding in the green, even after today's down day. it needs to be down greater than 0.29% tomorrow, at least for the spx, to have it end as a red scr )
