For anyone disappointed in my Tesla sale, please speak openly. I will be happy to answer any questions left by the post in the Tesla thread.
GOOD MOVE. Retirement comes first. There comes a time with any investment when the investor is SMART to cash it in and cut retirement risk. YOU have a huge gain.........no reason to get greedy.
I’m not at all surprised at taking a gain. I am very interested to know why ALL Tesla was sold. Granted Tesla is not a $800B company at the moment and undoubtedly you’d be able to buy back in below $807 — but why now? And why 100%?
This makes me very sad, selfishly. You're one of our best contributors, I hope you aren't really going to read only. I always enjoying reading what you have to say, even on "investments" you are not in. However, I'm very happy you built yourself a comfortable retirement and hope you enjoy it as much as you can! Always happy to see people succeed!
^ This 1000% imho. Couldn’t agree more there with ya, T. Regulars like @TomB16 and @WXYZ are the cornerstones of this community. Like you said, hoping Tom isn’t going on lurking-only mode. I too enjoy reading Tom’s daily insights. They are soooooo invaluable to this board imho. Although, I seldom if ever post on Tom or WXYZ’s threads, I do read them everyday whenever I’m logged in here. Really appreciate his input. There aren’t a ton of people out there who are so willing to take their time and efforts out of their days to post their thoughts and insights. But, I’ve been personally very grateful of Tom doing exactly that here since becoming a prominent member of this community. From all of us here at Stockaholics, we thank you so much for all of your amazing contributions on this forum now and over the years! You’ve definitely been a huge part of this site’s growth, especially of late! I’m dead serious here. And I couldn’t agree more with @T0rm3nted — it’s really very awesome seeing people’s success! Enjoy your time wherever you decide to do next from here. But, please don’t be a stranger ‘round these parts! Pretty sure I speak on behalf of all our regulars here on the forums when I say we greatly appreciate all that you do here. Thank you from the bottom of my heart. It’s been so great having ya here Tom!
I appreciate the support, gentlemen. Thank you. I didn't sell Tesla to have a mountain of cash. Although, I must say the mountain boggles the mind of someone not used to seeing such numbers. I'm in my 50s so the cash needs to be invested. A couple of specific ideas have been percolating on the back burner for quite some time and the Tesla move is part of these ideas. For me, investing is an extreme long game of research, scenario projection, and carefully calculated movements. At some point, I will un-cloak the next move but it will not return anything like Tesla did. It will be boring.
Hi Chris. I explained it elsewhere but here is the short form: A great case for Tesla would be $3T valuation in 20 years. That's 3.8x. A stretch case for Tesla woudl be $7T valuation in 20 years. That would be nearly 10x. I expect 8x gain in 20 years from some pretty conservative companies that distribute heavily. Some of the hyperbole around Tesla is ridiculous. For example, doubling and tripling of present valuation due to energy storage? That's moronic. There is a lot to be made from storage, more than automotive (without transport as a service), but to price in 1.5T worth of growth based on energy storage? If you add up the entire net worth of all power utilities in the world, it wouldn't be much over that. Further, I believe power is going to go nuke, primarily. There is a ton of energy storage need and nukes won't stop that but demand isn't infinite. The primary value in Tesla is transport as a service and automated freight. These two things are each trillion dollar ideas. Much of this has been priced into $TSLA. Value (in order with lowest value on top) - solar roof - heavy trucks - cars/trucks - energy storage - automated freight (big jump) - transport as a service (highest potential value)
A quick note on the energy industry. Very few people have a clue about the energy industry and that includes people who work in the energy industry. A small group of people know everything about energy. Most people, however, make massive logic errors based on ridiculous ideas. If you know how the industry works, there is a lot of money to be made. We will see how well I understand the industry, in the coming years. My confidence may be misplaced. We will see. In terms of cars, a lot of people are catching up. My view of how it will go is not as unique or comparatively far sighted as it once was. It's time to move to a new sandbox and start beating up a new group of kids.
BORING......is a good thing. OK....I am going to follow what you have done TomB16......I will sell my TSLA when I have a 2200% gain. That should be in about 18 months the way things are going now.
If you get to 50 years of age and discover your life long operating mode of working hard, saving money, and investing aggressively has paid off to the point you can live comfortably under even the most pessimistic macro conditions, it's a revelation. Perhaps this would be a dream for some but it's far more arbitrary than I would have thought. I'm not particularly better off than I was a decade ago. My spending profile is actually lower now than it was then. I have everything I need. What, then, does it mean? I would contend life position has very little meaning. What we do every day and the struggle to succeed is more meaningful than any arbitrary success point. We are on an extended vacation. This morning, as I walked along the beach, enjoyed the sunrise, and felt the splatter of fresh bird shit on my leg that slowly flowed into my slouching sock with bad elastic, a few things became clear. We have gone from four core holdings to three. Selling Tesla leaves us with two and the buy-out of our largest holding leaves us with one core holding. This is an opportunity to start again. Perhaps, I will share more this time. Perhaps I can share two investment paths. One will be ultra-conservative with cash flow and capital preservation being key goals. The other will be value and growth investing. If either is successful, it might be beneficial to someone else. I expect both to be successful, to be honest. I still have friends in Fremont and Shanghai who provide information on Tesla. I will still follow and share info, as I can.
Let me offer further clarification on selling Tesla. Tesla is no longer a deep value investment. Their over-valuation has consumed most of their potential to grow. I have no doubt, Tesla will continue to grow and do well but the value is mostly gone. Some value remains, for the extreme optimist. I happen to be an extreme optimist but the remaining value isn't enough to keep me. I have no idea what Tesla stock will do. I'm no trader. I don't technically analyze stock and I am not good at predicting market trends. In fact, the market cap for Tesla could hit 10T next week. Nothing is stopping it. The value, however, runs out long before 10T. The company is extremely unlikely to every be fundamentally worth $10T. If Tesla crashes, a lot, I will buy back in. That is extremely unlikely, however. I have found a company that has more short term value than Tesla, in my opinion. What's more, this company distributes nicely. Because of this and my life situation, I must re-tool. Again, I am all about value. What is a company fundamentally worth? What will that company fundamentally be worth in 5, 10, 20 years? How much of a discount can I buy it for? Tesla is currently priced 6 years into the future and that is best case. I have found another company that is under valued right now. I can buy it and just wait for people to realize what is going to happen.
Tom, what are you buying? You have a good track record. I’d like to copy your pick until such time as I can find one of my own. I’m not even trying to be lazy. It’s just coming from the indexing world I don’t know what or where to look at. Please do share.
Thank you for the vote of confidence, Chris. I will share, at some point. However, I cannot provide direct investing advice to anyone. That isn't just directed at you. I don't provide investing advice to my own family. My wife gets a free ride but she has certain skills that she exchanges for a comfortable life situation.
Tom, you've said if Tesla stock price crashes, you would get back in. At what valuation/share price would you then be comfortable hopping back in? I have zero plans to get in because I've already missed the big ride up, so I'm just curious what price you'd like. I've been watching you enlighten us all about tesla for a long time now.
Fair question. I project Tesla will grow into the present valuation in 6~7 years, if everything goes well. I expect everything to go well. To buy back in, i would need the price to where I value Tesla about 4 years into the future. That would be pretty far below where they are now. I don't see myself getting back in. Certainly, a drop back to $600 wouldn't entice me. Pricing Tesla is a messy business of subjectivity and predictions with little more credibility than an Ouija board but I would think the company would be comfortable around $400~500B. That would price in 7x unit growth, FSD, lots of energy growth, and the beginning of the ride network. This idea of value is about half current value, so it's a long way down.
I would not be shocked to see Tesla back under $600. Whatever happens, thanks for your insight all this time.
Do people realize vaccines arent going to let them return to life as 2019? I wonder if that will cause an economy crash. There are tons of reports of people contracting covid-19 a month after their first phizer immunization and its whole groups of people, not just the odd individual.
I don't know why people aren't paying attention. I'm sure they're hearing it from those administering the vaccines. You have to get the full dose (for pfizer it's 2 shots) and then wait 10-14 days before you're "good".
With Tesla gone, just over 50% cash, and our primary core holding about to collapse into a pile of small, unmarked, bills, it's a time for careful thought and consideration. This probably isn't all that different from someone just starting out. Further contributing to the cash is an opportunity to exit a tiny oil position at a nice little profit. I'm trying to simplify my portfolio. When I bought that oil stock two years ago, it was distributing nicely. By the end of 2019, it provided two returns on capital which returned my entire investment. I was pretty happy with the performance. After all, we were 100% de-risked and still had the stock. Shortly after the second return on capital, they announced cessation of the dividend. Two months later and a price war knocked the stock down to 25% of the level at which I bought in. A couple of weeks ago, I had the opportunity to sell the oil stock a few cents over purchase price in 2019. I did and got back the pocket change I had invested. Despite more than doubling my money in two years, this is not a win. First, I invested such a small amount, it is irrelevant to our portfolio. Next, I'm only passingly knowledgeable about the oil sector (far more than the average person but also far from an expert). I bought the stock because it showed amazing value and the company had no debt at all. So, I threw some pocket change at it. This is not how a successful investor operates. It was a distraction. We also exited another, less exciting, position. This position has treated us well and was a nice 12% earner in the 7 years we had it but it is no longer part of our core direction. Looking for the next Tesla I'm probably alone in not looking for the next Tesla. I'm looking for a stable company that is well run that will produce revenue for the next twenty years. There aren't a lot of industries that will still be around, undistrupted, in 20 years time. My job is to find them. I'm looking for a 10~15% return over time. That's all. I'm not lured by promises of high returns. I'm lured by well run businesses with low debt and a stable operation.
