YES....Emmett......as to the branch of the government called the IRS......I usually call them the INFERNAL REVENUE SERVICE. I just got home.....looks like the markets are WAFFLING........but, there still might be hope for the day. I am NOT including the DOW.....since I dont see it as really relevant or representative of the economy or markets anymore. A historical and traditional remnant of what used to be.
I am NOT complaining, but how much longer do you think TSLA can go? also could I get a suggestion on a stock I can invest in right now? got a little cash and for the last few days feel I have been missing out, was waiting a dip. The cash is in a separate account, not in my main account to add to them. Thanks
Had an excellent week this week. My portfolio is up for the first week of the year so I should be happy right? You would think... What I meant to write was... I had an excellent week - UNTIL TODAY... What happened? well one of my temporary holds was Serepta. I bought 4 bio tech positions in December. I couldn’t find a nice index fund for that sector so I decided to create my own: CRSP, RGEN, ILMN & SRPT.... Well it appears that the research studies on gene therapy treatment failed miserably and with it fell the stock... to the tune of 51% !!! OUCH! So I quickly sold (and added the remainder into ENPH), and went to play tennis with the wife... When I came back, I was STILL up for the day by 0.2 in my ENTIRE portfolio (long term and temp) mainly due to tsla. So... still a great week overall, but MAN ALIVE... what an experience!!! Figured I would share this here since we don’t usually get to hear about horror stories like these... especially not on such a GREEN day like today!
For biotech ETF funds I've used BBH, BBC, BBP from VanLick and Virtus for clinical and pre/post clinical companies. A little high on the expense ratio 0.79% however. XBI is the Spdr fund with half the expenses.
KILLER day.....KILLER week. The markets.....especially the DOW....really powered into the close during the last hour. I was strongly green today........hit a new all time high.........and beat the SP500 today by .55%. So.......the first week of the year is in the bag.....here is how we did: SP500 for the week +1.83% SP500 year to date +1.83% DOW for the week +1.61% DOW year to date +1.61% NASDAQ100 for the week +1.68% NASDAQ100 year to date +1.68% NASDAQ for the week +2.43% NASDAQ year to date +2.43% EXCEPTIONAL start to the new year. The KEY for investors....especially over the next month....will be to totally ignore all the general MEDIA DRAMA that will be spouted every day ALL day long. Time to get rested up for next week of investing. LETS SEE.....based on this week for the SP500 at +1.83%......and considering that there are 52 weeks in the year.......and taking 52 times 1.83%......we should end the year at +95.16% for the SP500. WHAT? You cant project it that way? DAMN. Well than lets say.....based on this one little week and this one little bit of preview of the year........at the end of December 2021......my GUESS is 17-25% total return for the SP500.
WOW.....Zukodany. That was a WILD day for you. I dont think I have EVER had a single stock go down 51% in one day. And than....to STILL end the day at +0.2%.....CRAZY. Those BIOTECH companies can be INSANELY risky. Many of them are hanging their hat on just one or two potential products. Thank goodness you DECISIVELY sold it. Bigmaix.....lets see stocks to invest in? I STILL like ALL the stock holdings in my portfolio model and would buy any or all of them today if I was starting out. As to TESLA and how long it can continue......really a relevant question. I looked today and my initial investment of about $13,500 is now worth over $53,000.......in 7 months. I.....at the moment......intend to hold on and ride this HEAVY MOMENTUM out for a good while. Although, this opinion could change on a dime. I would guess that there is a chance of a drop in TESLA of 20-40% if we hit a NASTY correction or some really negative news event for the company. It DOES make me nervous when a company goes up like this one has....but at the moment I will let it run. At some point I might......violate my general rule about not re-balancing.....and take some money off the table from this holding.....but not yet. Seems to me that the policies that we are going to see over the next four years towards EVERYTHING GREEN, GREEN, GREEN....will strongly favor a dominant EV company such as TESLA. On the other hand.....there is OBVIOUSLY.....a HUGE amount of speculative........UNEDUCATED.......crowd investing going on day to day in stocks, bitcoin, etc, etc.......especially darling companies like TESLA. At some point the music will end in this little game of investing musical chairs and the.....short to medium term...... bottom will fall out. It could be 6 months...it could be years.......impossible to know. Be guided by your risk tolerance and the importance.......to you...... of the money that you have tied up in these sorts of stocks. Whatever happens........the general markets.......are likely to be MR TOADS WILD RIDE this year. Buckle up........as a long term investor take heart.....and, hang on.
Yup. I thought I’ve seen it all during Feb- March of last year... guess again... I literally rebooted my stock app... next step was to reboot my phone I couldn’t believe what I was seeing I’m sure it will come back again cause it’s a great company but... no thank you!
Bigmaix I have been thinking about your post regarding selling TESLA. I am thinking that.......if or when......the stock hits $1250....I will take $26,000 off the table. This will recoup my initial investment of about $13,000 plus a 100% profit. It will leave me with shares worth about $50,000. At least......as of today.....that is my tentative.....aspirational plan. I will than spread that money in $5000 chunks (investing term of art) among 5 of my holdings. My total gain at that point will be about 600%......that will satisfy much of my GREED. Of course.....if the markets are BOOMING.....I might be tempted to go longer.......as I said a very tentative plan. At the current rate....I should be doing that trade in about a week and a half. (a joke) DISCLAIMER: NOT suggesting anything to anyone else......this is a tentative plan....subject to change with additional thinking and subject to what is going on in the markets. This is NOT investment advice to anyone else.
Thanks for the reply, also I will be looking to see when you think it's a good time to make the move. Thanks again, had it nit been for you on that original TSLA move, I might not be where I am now in my short time of investing journey.
WXYZ, you said spread to 5 of your holdings, which ones are you referring in particular, if you don't mind? Thanks
Bigmaix Consider that it will probably be months if not more to get to the point that I make the sale of about 1/3 of my TESLA and reinvestment......assuming I get to my goal. At the moment......the stocks that I would add to are PG, NVDA, GOOGL, HON and HD. Why those stocks.....because they lag the others that I own in total value in the portfolio. I want to add to each of them to bring them a little closer to the value that I have in the other stocks. The other holdings are large enough.....for now..... compared to the total value of the entire portfolio. I will not add to SNOW because it is a long term speculative holding and I do not want to put any further money into it.....besides the amount that I used to purchase the original 100 shares. There will be plenty of time to add to it......later.....if it is justified as we go forward....and....considering their future financials. Keep in mind.....this plan and my current thinking is not set in stone. I will have plenty of time to consider what I want to do and when.......as I wait and watch TESLA over the coming months. I want to balance.......taking some profit......and......trying to capture the current HUGE momentum that TESLA is showing. This is ALL tenuous since......NO ONE......can predict the market over he next 2-4 months......and I will just have to play it by ear. Whatever I do........I will post it here when I do it.....as usual.
Bigmaix.....one last word on TSLA.....or any of my holdings. Be careful.....I appreciate you following some of my moves. BUT.....that is not why I post here. Please make any moves that you need to........based on your own personal situation or what is right for you.....REGARDLESS......of what I may do. It is NOT my intent in posting here to give specific investing advice. Of course....you or anyone else is free to do whatever they wish.......but.......please NO ONE has a CRYSTAL BALL and NO ONE.........NOT ME NOT ANYONE.......can predict the short to medium term markets or path that an individual stock will take. YES......over the long term......we know that we will ALL do well if we invest for the long term. BUT.......short term/medium term........please do what is the right thing for.......YOU.....regardless of what I might do.
I would like to express my opinion on tsla; I’m a proud owner of a Tesla model S since 2016, and bought the stock in mid 2018 right before its current bull run has begun. My wife and I love Elon Musk and appreciate his vision and contributions to the commerce, trade, labor and technology sectors as well as his innovative pursuit for clean energy. Elon is a POWERHOUSE that has often times came across resistance from major players in the market which were successful in shorting the stock time and time again, only to fail at the end. The above are the positive sentiments that I have for the company/stock. The negatives are; the obvious- evaluation, evaluation & evaluation. The stock has gotten to levels that even Musk himself hasn’t predicted. And while that is all nice and well here are my personal fears: politics. Elon is currently not a Washington favorite. He had done and said things which were not in sync with many current and future governing figures. While his sentiment is obviously harmless and comes from his personal struggles with running a business during covid hard restrictions - he is now being recognised as a powerful businessman, up there with Zuckerberg, Bezos and others. And that may be a threat to the incoming government. Add to that that tech companies like Apple, Google, Twitter, FB and the likes have shown a very strong and disproportionate show of strength in the past 72 hours, I fear that that may be used against someone as outspoken as Musk and may get him into uncharted waters. That could lead to further actions and cause a major crash with the stock. I am not here to spread doom and gloom, as I am a HUGE tsla fan and own shares in the company myself. But it’s very hard not to think about those things and have that cause a concern. Tesla is a very young company, but Musk is a savvy larger than life figure, favored by many around the world. Just not so much by the new powering figures in our country. Thank god China still likes him
"PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS" Lets talk.....REALITY. When I talk about TESLA at $1250.......and use the term "aspirational goal".......I am talking about future events that are NOT guaranteed to happen.....IN THE SLIGHTEST. It is something that I......WISH......will happen......something that I.......ASPIRE to. For this to happen it will need to go up another 42% from current levels. NOTHING.......no stock.....goes up like a rocket forever. (apologies for the "rocket" analogy Elon) The stock could stagnate tomorrow.....the stock could tank tomorrow....the stock could sit at current levels and waffle around for years. NO ONE KNOWS. I STRONGLY believe that everyone has gotten too carried away with this stock. I STRONGLY believe that way too many people have gotten WAY TO CARRIED AWAY with many stocks and investing in general. MANIA.....MANIA.......MANIA. EVERYONE has gotten too BLASE.......about believing future projections of CRAZY STOCK PRICES. THIS is why I am weighing taking SOME money off the table in this stock. I will........TRY.....to balance playing the MOMENTUM GAME versus taking the money out soon. If it looks like things are slowing or stabilizing with TESLA I WILL at least take out my initial investment of $13,400. I do......ASPIRE.....to be able to take out $26,000 (initial investment plus a 100% profit).....and....play with FREE MONEY from that point on.......but.......I RECOGNIZE the very speculative and dangerous nature of where we are with this company in terms of stock price and MANIA. I AM NOT talking about taking any other money off the table in ANY other holding.....I will hold them ALL for the long term through GOOD or BAD economic conditions...........until their business financials no longer justify holding them. On a GENERAL level....talking short term.....I have NO CONFIDENCE in how and what the politicians will do to the economy over the next four years. What I am hearing and seeing are NOT the sort of policies that have EVER resulted in a booming economy.......or good employment numbers. FORTUNATELY.....the stock markets ARE NOT the general economy and often DO NOT track what is happening in the general economy. We can talk about short term and medium term stuff on here till the cows come home....BUT....what really matters is being a LONG TERM INVESTOR and positioning yourself to take advantage of the long term.......total return gains..........achieved by being invested all the time for many years and religiously reinvesting ALL dividends and capital gains. I know it seems SCHIZOID.......but......I am always.......and remain........VERY POSITIVE for the future as a long term investor......the short to medium term stuff.......2-5 years.....are OPAQUE TO EVERYONE. SO....I will CONFIDENTLY and POSITIVELY remain fully invested for the long term as usual....and.....I will often talk about the short to medium term on here......BUT......ALWAYS with REALITY in the back of my mind. SO......lets go out there next week and make some money........day by day, week by week, month by month, year by year......eventually it ends up being NICE long term gains.
There is some justification for the $850B valuation. Some. Tesla could become a 3M vehicle per year, fully automated transport and freight service, sell a lot of energy storage, significantly expand their PPAs, and run their own distributed energy company. If all this happens, they will dominate the world and have a value far in excess of $850B. I have no doubt, most of this will happen. The thing is, all of their current business and much of their potential business is already priced into the stock. I got out because it is no longer a value investment. I dont gamble in stocks i think will go up. I invest in companies i feel have value. It is still possible to find value in Tesla. Cathy Wood values Tesla at $3T potential. She has also said she no longer sees much value in it so ARK is not expanding its Tesla position. So, i completely respect other people who feel Tesla is going to continue to do extremely well. In fact, I agree with them. Best wishes on continued success, Wxyz. 
I AGREE TomB16. If not, I would simply sell it all now. I do see it as a long term GROWTH holding for myself. I just want to......have my cake and eat it too....by locking in a 100% profit and still having a nice chunk of shares to hold for the long term. My concern is.....people read something on a message board and just see what they want to see and get carried away. Probably should not be a concern.....I think most of us on here are pretty RATIONAL. I try to NOT get BOGGED down in data and detail and financial analysis in this thread.........but.......in the end it matters......as does critical thinking about your specific investments. At least investing for the long term........in DOMINANT/ESTABLISHED COMPANIES......helps to take some of the risk out of the experience.
WX.... Is there any stock in time that you remember that performed like Tesla? And by that I mean mainly with 2 parallels: overvalued & steep climbs in a short period? I know that you had mentioned miscrosoft in the 90s I believe.... then there’s apple and Amazon... but didn’t all 3 stocks climbed on a smaller pace and were valued more or less proportionately as well as had a more organic climb with ups and downs?
Microsoft was not a slam-dunk in 1990, to say the least. What we had not seen, to that point, was the relentless work ethic of Microsoft and how they took a vastly inferior platform (to pretty much anything on the market) and developed it into an excellent platform. Microsoft was not gifted their success. They kicked the door in and then took it. They earned their position in the IT world. IBM thought being big was some kind of asset. Perhaps it was but complacency never wins the long haul. So, the people who bought 100 shares of Microsoft in the very early days were visionaries who were properly rewarded for their loyalty. Tom's opinion.....
