Silver (SLV) Slides Back Below Its 50-DMA Tue, Sep 22, 2020 The Silver Trust ETF (SLV) is currently sitting on a year-to-date gain of more than 35% even after falling 16.15% since its early August high. Yesterday's session had a significant part to play in those recent declines as SLV had a rough start to the week with a decline of 7.6%. As shown below, since SLV began trading in 2006, there have only been 21 days (0.58% of all trading days) in which SLV has fallen greater than 7% in a single day with yesterday marking the 19th worst day on record. In what has been a volatile year, that was the biggest decline since August 11th's 13.6% drop; one day after its 52-week high. Prior to that, there was a 12.3% decline on March 16th, but before that, you would have to go back to 2013 to find another day with as large of a move. One other thing that yesterday's drop marked was a fall back below SLV's 50-DMA. SLV has been trading above its 50-DMA every day since May 7th (94 consecutive trading days). That brings to an end the second-longest streak on record that SLV spent above its 50-DMA. The only longer such streak was one that lasted exactly 100 days that came to a close on January 13th, 2011. Back during that streak, SLV had risen 59% compared to the 79.1% rally from May through yesterday.
Looks like the initial push is over, selling all the way down to the initial gap. Now to see if this uptrend can hold, Ill be buying if it breaks to new highs.
Watching. I have april and june calls. Today was a bit of a disappointment. Ive had them since wednesday or Thursday last week. Yesterday was good feelz. Today not so much. Lol. Hoping to see you buy a lot! had feb calls too, but got shaken out today.
I cant remember the last time I traded metals. I may get some 3x Silver like AGQ (I had to search for the ticker because I cant remember them anymore!) here if this finds support today or tomorrow.
@StockJock-e im just curious to your thoughts on the relation between paper and bullion silver. Like the ability to manipulate it. mine are that bullion would be safest. Lets say a true short call happened. Those holding bullion have the power. Those holding certificates for bullion could just get a “sowwy” letter. i tagged you because you are watching it and it seems you have been on or around the trading floors. Obviously, i value your opinion. is this just tin foil hat stuff, or a real possibility of happening? My understanding is that there isnt enough silver mined in the world to meet todays commercial demand, or cover a mass bullion call.
Honestly, there was a time years ago where I probably knew a bit more, but I forgot because it was pointless. All the theories that if you hold physical or take possession certs, then your force this firm to cover from that firm and then some magic genie or something comes along to makes Silver go to $10000 which is the true value. None of it ever happens. End of the day, its some trading desk at Goldman Sachs that decides they are positioned and want to make it move.
Is there a silver shortage or what? Can't seem to find a abundant supply with the dealers, the industrials buy in bulk not 1 oz or 100 oz bars. With the EV shift, obviously that will increase demand and I'm sure the pandemic has hampered mining. But if you look at futures it is stuck in the groove. Conspiracy theories ensue. Should I ebay my years old stash or wait for the 50s
Just a lot of retail buyers all piling on top of this. I cant tell you how coordinated it is, but they are trying to get some sort of social media movement going where everybody goes and buys physical.
Something I wrote at the end of August... update to follow The markets can go up, down and sideways and currently the silver chart shows that the precious metal is in a sideways range between the $21.60 and $30 price levels. When a market goes into a corrective mode, it can be in price or through time and for the silver market it has mainly been across the x-axis rather than the y-axis of your charts. In the mainstream media we often hear stories about manipulation, whether it be from the cohort of retail traders on Wall St. Bets pushing meme stocks, or their preferred broker (jokes) Robinhood who sell flow data to funds like Citadel. There was talk this year that the Reddit forums could be pushing the price of spot silver higher due to the well documented short paper interest and lack of physical supply. What hasn’t been mentioned in much detail across CNBC is what caused the precious metals markets to flash crash earlier this month at the start of trading on the 9th August. A few months earlier the media and market watchers had been talking up the impending Basel 3 regulations that were going to reclassify physical metals from a Tier-3 risky asset to a Tier 1 zero-risk asset that European banks could hold as part of their Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR). NSFR’s wider objective, within the Capital Requirements Regulation (CRR) II framework, is to oblige banks to finance long-term assets with long-term money in order to avoid the liquidity failures seen during the 2007/08 global financial crisis. For precious metals, NSFR will require 85% of Required Stable Funding (RSF) to be held against the financing and the clearing and settlement of precious metals transactions. Un-allocated or paper metal contracts would be deemed riskier assets and the banks would need to hold more reserves to keep them on the books within the regulatory guidelines. As stated above, the banks would need to hold 85% of the value of un-allocated contracts in zero-risk assets to back up the paper. The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) successfully negotiated out of having to be fully compliant but should be moving towards full compliance by the end of this year. Because there are a lot of unallocated positions which make up the futures markets, it is reasonable to suspect that a co-ordinated effort to move prices lower was done during thin holiday markets for some institutions to square their books as they move towards regulatory compliance. The effect was to instigate covering of unallocated by buying physical, but to buy physical you need someone to sell back to you. During the flash crash early in August there would have been an opportunity for such an act as institutional traders could have Exchanged Futures for Physical which is known as EFP. – EFP is a backdoor for paper trades to get converted to physical contracts, where you can lock in a physical price through exchanging at a paper price. Those traders that went into the weekend of the 7th August long gold and un-hedged probably puked their position as the price dropped like a stone, and as prices accelerated lower, speculators would have opened up more shorts pushing prices even lower meaning you don’t need to use a lot of contracts to move the market in a major way, you just need to trigger a speculators algo that chases momentum. All of this with the intention of buying the physical contracts in the liquidity event as institutions got the price they wanted through the EFP. The bids would have been placed at the price the weak hands of the physical (spot price) would have had the majority of their stops. The overall result would be those looking to get rid of unallocated contracts would have raided those with physical positions and made them sell the physical to them. A.K.A a switcheroo!
What we now can deduct from this activity is that the lows seen at the beginning of August are more than likely the base level for everything to build upon until the end of the year. If this is true, the lows of 2020 are the inception of the current rally, the swing high from the beginning of 2021 is the anchor and the August flash crash low is the pull-back, which if you use in conjunction with a fib extension tool, the next levels for take profit are $40-$41/oz for the measured move then 161.8% extension comes in at $53/oz. Even if the rally stalls at the first set of fib extensions that still brings in $31-$36/oz which is 3x the lows of 2020.
In the commitment of traders reports we are also seeing that commercial reporters are decreasing their short positions, which in March 2020 led to the start of the rise in silver from $12/oz to $30/oz. There are also mentions of refiners who make up part of the commercial reporting cohort, buying back deliverable silver contracts which are running at a discount to spot, to then redistribute to buyers and fulfill orders at a premium, because the physical market is so tight and there is high demand. US dollars have been in the safe-haven flows as worries around the fed tightening were abundant since the Hawkish June FOMC. The silver to greenback ratio in safe-haven flows has equaled each other out as prices have gone sideways in the XAGUSD but gold has had a lot of flows during these uncertain times. With the uncertainty in the markets around transitory inflation, COVID-19 delta variant disruptions, and the “will they, won’t they” raise rates from Fed watchers, gold is likely to receive safe-haven flows as is the US dollar for longer. That has been the trend so far at least. When we know more about what the Fed is planning with monetary policy, we should eventually move to a US dollar bear trend resumption and the spot prices for silver and gold should once again rise.
