Talking about.....EXTREMELY SPECULATIVE companies.....here is a young company that will......probably..... IPO this year. It seems that ALL the big boys are investing in this company....Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Salesforce. Of course this is why my Snowflake is VERY VERY speculative.....this company will compete against them. https://investmentu.com/databricks-ipo/ https://seekingalpha.com/news/36584...1-could-rival-snowflakes-blockbuster-offering https://siliconangle.com/2021/02/01...ion-databricks-takes-aim-ipo-rival-snowflake/ NOT recommending anything....just throwing this out there for people that like to evaluate start up companies.....and.....are looking for the next big thing. CAUTION....most of these NEW companies will not become dominant.....if this stock goes IPO in 2021 it will be an EXTREMELY SPECULATIVE investment.
HERE....is more short term...."stuff"....for long term investors....next weeks earnings STARS: Canopy Growth (NASDAQ:CGC) - Tuesday before the open. Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO) - Tuesday after the close. Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) - Wednesday before the ope. Zillow (NASDAQ:Z, NASDAQ:ZG) - Wednesday after the close. Uber (NYSE:UBER) - Wednesday after the close. Kraft Heinz (NASDAQ:KHC) - Thursday before the open. Disney (NYSE:DIS) - Thursday after the close. MY COMMENT If you want more info on these earnings leaders for next week....here you go: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/earnings-reports-to-watch-next-week-1028709625 We have a couple more weeks of numerous companies reporting....and....than....we taper down quickly to the end of earnings over the next two weeks. At that point the markets will move on....and...forward. Of course....it all starts over again in April. HOW are we doing.....well: "Halfway Through Earnings Season, 80% of S&P 500 Companies Are Beating Estimates Most companies tend to set expectations conservatively so that they can then exceed a low bar. So that 80% beat rate isn’t all that abnormal. In fact, it’s lower than the percentage of companies that topped estimates in the third quarter of last year. But the fourth-quarter results so far do have one thing over the prior period. Year-over-year growth has returned, after big declines earlier in the pandemic. Earnings, so far, are up about 6% on average." https://www.barrons.com/articles/80...fourth-quarter-earnings-estimates-51612519201 SO....very nice earnings to date....as of February 5, 2021. NONE of the predictions and DOOM&GLOOM for the third or forth quarter....came true. A BIG WARNING....for investors. AVOID....letting the short term predictions and media JUNK scare you into making moves. Invest for the long term......and.......avoid at all costs short term market timing. There is NO WAY....to predict the short term...and....any actions you take based on media blather.....or experts......or so called professionals........will simply be based on GUESSWORK and KILL your returns as you jump in and out of the markets. WE....are going into next week with GREAT momentum on our side. My opinion......the actual PROBABILITY....is for another nice week next week for stock and fund investors. In fact.....I think the......strong probability.....is for a GREAT couple of months all the way to first quarter earnings in April....based on the markets FINALLY taking the time to evaluate the current earnings and the INDIVIDUAL BUSINESS SUCCESS and achievement that the earnings are documenting. So far this year...it seems like the markets have been obsessed with DRAMA......and.....soap opera....stuff that is meaningless. Over the coming months it will be time to........ACTUALLY......see the fundamental data for what it is.....SPECTACULAR...considering the totality of the business circumstances at the moment. REALLY...looking forward to next week......as we move forward toward a NORMAL....post-covid.....time span.
In RECOGNITION of the Super Bowl today......here is a little investing article that contains the most POWERFUL message of them ALL for any investor....even if you are not pulling down tens of millions from a lucrative professional sports contract: How to Crush Your Retirement Savings Just Like Rob Gronkowski https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/02/04/crush-your-retirement-savings-like-rob-gronkowski/ (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Pro football player Rob Gronkowski did the unthinkable: He saved his entire NFL career earnings, lived off of endorsement money, and took his first retirement at 29 years old. Over his career, he's earned nearly $60 million from his NFL contracts according to Spotrac, and unlike many players, he's built himself a handsome nest egg for years to come. Although Gronkowski, known by the nickname "Gronk," is a star football player who was blessed with million-dollar contracts, his savings strategy is so simple that anyone can mimic it to achieve their retirement goals. If you're a little low on retirement savings or just want to boost your portfolio, these tips will allow you to claim your retirement victory sooner than you think. The game plan All great goals begin with a plan, and the first step you can take to crush your retirement goals is to start saving. Allocate as much of your earnings as you can to your savings accounts. Don't settle for only saving 10% to 20% of your earnings just because that's the standard path that everyone takes. If you can save more, go for it. If you can't save a lot now, then put yourself in a position where you can easily increase your savings rate one quarter at a time. Gronk's winning strategy, though, didn't require complex formulas and calculations. "Keep it easy, and I'd say keep it simple," Gronkowski said in a 2019 Business Insider interview. "Get what you need to be comfortable, save the extra." To save more, you typically have to increase your income or decrease your expenses. But if you're like Gronkowski, you can take on the challenge of doing both to expedite your progress. In his 2015 book, It's Good to Be Gronk, Gronkowski shares the habits that helped him maintain a sizable nest egg. "Look, to this day, I still haven't touched one dime of my signing bonus money or NFL contract money," the former Patriots tight end wrote. "I live off my marketing money and haven't blown any big bucks on expensive cars, expensive jewelry or tattoos. Heck, I still wear my favorite pair of jeans from high school." Tackle your goals like a pro Gronkowski saved every dime of the money he received during his NFL career and only touched his endorsement earnings. He landed deals with popular brands such as Nike, Dunkin', Cheerios, Tide, and others that helped to fund his lifestyle. But if you can't take advantage of all the glamorous endorsement deals that Gronkowski received, don't sweat it. There are perks that everyone can take advantage of at every income level to help them tackle their goals. For example, once you start saving, you can use a portion of your funds to max out your Roth IRA every year to accumulate tax-free income during retirement. The key here is to invest the money in your retirement account to score big returns. The IRS will even give you a bonus -- the saver's credit -- for saving toward retirement, which can put up to $1,000 or $2,000 back in your pockets in 2021 if you earned a modest income. For those who made too much money to contribute to a Roth IRA, then check out the traditional IRA. It's a tax-advantaged account that offers deductions that you can use immediately to reduce your taxable income. Don't forget to look into employer-sponsored retirement plans such as a 401(k) that can give you an additional boost to accelerate your savings goals. If all else fails, at the bare minimum, you can always pick up a side gig or gain an extra stream of passive income that you can save exclusively for your retirement needs. Having multiple sources of income makes it easier to save. The retirement touchdown Gronkowski is not only winning on the football field, but he's tackling retirement savings one game at a time. His moves on the field prove this: There's always a winning move you can make no matter where you stand. If you apply that same mentality to your retirement strategy, you'll be one step closer to scoring a touchdown in your savings. You may not wake up to millions of dollars overnight, but there's no doubt that Gronk's strategy will enable you to have a healthy nest egg to live the life you want now and in your senior years." MY COMMENT MOST ....of us are not highly paid professional athletes. BUT....you dont have to pull in the BIG BUCKS to set yourself up for a comfortable retirement......well above what other people would expect. It REALLY is that simple. 1. Have a plan for regular savings and investing. FOLLOW the old saying......"pay yourself first". Put your savings EVERY MONTH on automatic pilot.....have it go straight into your ROTH or IRA or 401K or brokerage account. 2. Invest in broad stock Indexes like the SP500 or the NASDAQ 100, or any of the others. Do it over a lifetime and ALLAYS reinvest ALL dividends and capital gains.....automatically. 3. Avoid the big savings killers....buying fancy cars, eating out all the time, expensive clothing and jewelry, expensive vacations, etc, etc, etc.......UNLESS.......you actually can afford to do so and STILL save for the future. It is amazing how much you can save......for example......by driving your car into the ground once it is paid off. It REALLY is that simple......have a lifetime plan and follow the plan......invest......and live a reasonable lifestyle for your income and situation. If you invest in stocks or funds.....for the long term.....and....reinvest ALL dividends and capital gains....the compounding will be AMAZING. It will seem impossible to make much at first....but....over time you will eventually hit that first BIG milestone......$100,000 in your account. After that the growth will be EXPLOSIVE. In a year where your index goes up 10% you will make $10,000 PLUS your additions.....in a year where your index makes 20% or 25% you will make $20,000 or $25,000 PLUS your additions. At that point you......WILL BE..... making it to that next goal....$200,000.....in ONLY 4-6 years. Once you jit that $200,000 goal....the gains will REALLY TAKE OFF.......$20,000....$30,000...$40,0000.....$50,000.....in ONLY ONE YEAR. ANYWAY....we ALL get the idea....BUT.....are you actually doing it? We ALL know it is so simple....but....are you actually doing it? As NIKE....apparel provider to the Super Bowl says......JUST DO IT.......for yourself and your family. As a side note: Come on here and talk about your goals....your money victories....your money defeats....your investing plan....CELEBRATE your successes....even if small......reward your brain by giving yourself PSYCHIC rewards for following your plan and hitting small milestones.....REINFORCE positive behavior. USE the POWER of compounding.....positive thinking.....goal visualization.....to.......JUST DO IT.
What a nice little article. Even though it is a couple of months old......the message is STILL totally true......perfectly in line with how we ended the year last year......and.....the opening 5 weeks of investing in 2021. What You Can’t See in Stocks’ Stellar Long-Term Returns https://www.realclearmarkets.com/ar..._stocks_stellar_long-term_returns_653101.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "In mid-November, US stocks were up about 11% year to date, on track for a ho-hum, nothing-to-see-here 2020—and in line with the market’s long-term history of 10% annualized returns. Right? Not quite. The path toward “average” included unprecedented economic shutdowns aimed at slowing a pandemic, US GDP’s cratering at a -31.4% annualized rate in Q2 before rebounding 31.0% in Q3, the S&P 500’s -33.8% five-week bear market and a presidential election featuring myriad twists and turns. The chaos underlying this seemingly “average” 2020 year-to-date return highlights a key investing lesson, in Fisher Investments’ view: Average long-term stock returns often obscure wild shorter-term swings. To reach their investment goals, we think investors who need equity-like returns for some or all of their portfolios must expect short-term volatility—and stay disciplined through it. Stocks may average about 10% annualized gains over the long haul, but that doesn’t mean the market will return anywhere near that figure in a given year. Since 1925 (when reliable US stock market data begin), the S&P 500 has risen between 5% and 15% in 17 calendar years. More than twice as often—35 years—the index has risen over 20%. Moreover, the 25 calendar years in which stocks declined raise an important reminder, in Fisher Investments’ view: Stocks’ 10% annualized long-term average includes all bear markets—fundamentally driven downturns of -20% or more. That means annual returns tend to be well above 10% during bull markets—extended periods of rising stocks—and far lower during bear markets. History shows how dramatic year-to-year swings can be, particularly after a bear market ends and a new bull market begins. The bear market that began in March 2000 ended in October 2002. The S&P 500 fell -22.1% in 2002 but surged 28.7% in 2003.[vi] The next bear market began in October 2007 and ended in March 2009. Returns then tell a similar story: The S&P 500 fell -37.0% in 2008 and jumped 26.5% in 2009. Many calendar-year returns during bull markets also don’t reveal short-term bumpiness related to smaller pullbacks and larger corrections (sentiment-driven declines of -10% to -20%)—both of which are common during periods of rising markets. The 2009–2020 bull market showcases several instances of this. For example, in 2016, the S&P 500 was down -10.3% by mid-February as collapsing oil prices and European bank struggles rattled investors. Stocks were still in negative territory as late as June 27, before a big second half delivered a 12.0% full-year return—a seemingly “normal” year if you merely looked at the final gain. Similarly, in 2011, US stocks were up more than 9% in late April—appearing on track for a stellar year. Then volatility struck and, by October 3, the index was down -11.3% for the year. It then erased all of those declines in less than three weeks and, by year-end, the S&P 500 was up 2.1%—a relatively dull return obscuring a wild ride. An even more vivid example of extreme volatility in a seemingly “pedestrian” year: 1987. Those familiar with that year’s “Black Monday” plunge—a -20.5% single-day decline on October 19—may be surprised to learn the S&P 500’s overall return in 1987 was a blasé 2.0%. Yet it featured one of the biggest boom-and-busts ever, as investor sentiment swung from euphoria to despair. In late August, the index was up nearly 40% year to date; its subsequent tumble sent it as low as -7.5% on December 4, before a late-year rally pushed it back into positive territory. These examples, in our view, illustrate how short-term volatility is inevitable and unpredictable. However, investors who dump stocks in reaction to that movement may end up missing out on stocks’ powerful long-term gains. Selling stocks because of fear amid volatility may feel like reducing risk but, in Fisher Investments’ view, reacting emotionally is dangerous for investors. Though headlines tend to focus on stocks’ short-term movements, volatility is just one stock market risk investors must contend with. We think a bigger—and less-appreciated—risk is investors’ failing to reach their long-term financial goals. While every investor’s individual asset allocation depends on their unique goals, objectives, time horizon and circumstances, those who require growth will need market-like returns over time, in our view. We think the discomfort of short-term stock market volatility is the price many investors must pay to achieve their ultimate goals. Stocks’ impressive average long-term returns can cause investors to forget about that inevitable volatility—making them susceptible to emotion-driven decisions when big swings do strike. We think those who understand frequent bouts of volatility are normal stand a better chance of staying disciplined when turbulence does hit." MY COMMENT YES.....EXACTLY. This is WHY long term investing works. You can NEVER anticipate how the markets are going to end any particular year based on ALL the intra-year......extreme......volatility, booms, busts, corrections, euphoria, etc,etc. DISCIPLINE is the name of the game. You can NEVER achieve the GREAT long returns that the general averages show......if......you are NOT invested. If you simply look at the annual total returns of the SP500.....it ALL looks pretty pedestrian.....as the article states..... "a relatively dull return obscuring a wild ride". HERE.....are the key lessons of this little article for long term investors: * "investors who need equity-like returns for some or all of their portfolios must expect short-term volatility—and stay disciplined through it". * "investors who dump stocks in reaction to that movement (short term volatility) may end up missing out on stocks’ powerful long-term gains. Selling stocks because of fear amid volatility may feel like reducing risk but.......reacting emotionally is dangerous for investors." * "those who require growth will need market-like returns over time........the discomfort of short-term stock market volatility is the price many investors must pay to achieve their ultimate goals." * "Stocks’ impressive average long-term returns can cause investors to forget about that inevitable volatility—making them susceptible to emotion-driven decisions when big swings do strike.......those who understand frequent bouts of volatility are normal stand a better chance of staying disciplined when turbulence does hit." An important comment above......I had not thought of it this way but.....yes......many investors THINK they are........REDUCING RISK......by selling during periods of uncertainty.....but in doing that....they are simply trying to market time and will inevitably achieve the exact opposite.......MORE portfolio volatility and POOR results. In order to get the long term....10-11% average that the unmanaged Indexes achieve......you HAVE to be invested in the markets. Do the indexes....EVER....sell or leave the markets? NEVER......they simply plug along, fully invested all the time. Do the unmanaged Indexes EVER experience.....pain, emotion, discomfort, feelings, etc, etc? NEVER.......they are TOTALLY unemotional non-human constructs. As a result.......they are FULLY invested all the time.....for the long term.....and they routinely hit that 10-11% long term average. Volatility is NORMAL......Corrections are NORMAL.....even bear markets are NORMAL.....all the negative volatile events that happen in an average year are NORMAL....just like ALL the......POSITIVE......volatile events that happen in an average year are NORMAL. This article is the PERFECT explanation and rationale for.....first, long term investing......and....second, being fully invested all the time. ALTHOUGH.....the above assumes that an investor is at least operating at some level of........rational behavior......in picking their investments.
OK....lets have a.......SUPER BOWL BUMP......for the markets tomorrow and all week. Futures as I type this are UP by 155 points. meaningless....yes....but I like it....late on a Sunday night. SEEMS like everything is all lined up for a good week next week for investors. DISCLOSURE: Even though I have mentioned the Super Bowl a number of times on here.....I did not watch any of it. Now.....seeing the score, it looks like it was a typical........BORING.......Super Bowl. I used to watch PRO sports.......and......at one time even had season tickets for the Seahawks for 8-10 years. NOW....I strongly prefer college football and basketball.....and....rarely watch the Pro sports.
For those.....that are all excited by the Apple EV stories in the news over the past few days........WELL.......be careful what you TRUST from the MEDIA. The stories MIGHT eventually come true but....as of RIGHT NOW: Hyundai, Kia shares dive as automakers puncture investor dream of Apple car tieup https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hyundai-kia-theyre-not-talks-021952513.html "South Korea's Hyundai Motor Co said on Monday it is not now in talks with Apple Inc on autonomous electric cars, just a month after it confirmed early-stage talks with the tech giant, sending the automaker's shares skidding. Wiping $2.1 billion off its market value, Hyundai's stock slumped 4.2% by 0330 GMT. Shares in its affiliate Kia Corp, which had been tipped in local media reports as the likely operational partner for Apple, tumbled 12% - a $4.3 billion hit................................................................ ""We are receiving requests for cooperation in joint development of autonomous electric vehicles from various companies, but they are at early stage and nothing has been decided," the automakers said on Monday, in compliance with stock market rules requiring regular updates to investors regarding market rumors. "We are not having talks with Apple on developing autonomous vehicles."" MY COMMENT Kind of reminds me of all the stories a few years back about Apple taking over the television market.
I get the point WXYZ about not jumping ship every time the market drops a titch but what's wrong with this scenario: Stock x was bought at 50 per share and is now at 100 when a bear market starts. I sell at 90 which is a 10% drop and I rebuy at 80, it goes down to 75 and then starts rising again. I own it for the upswing and I didn't lose fully 25% before bull came back. It seems to me that if I keep my head and not react emotionally I can minimize my losses and still take advantage of the gain when bear comes back.
Actually I can think of 1 drawback. Taxes would go up since I the stocks might not be held long term.
NOTHING is wrong with that example gtrudeau88........if you want to be a market timer.......and....can actually successfully time the markets. I am not being critical......everyone has to invest THEIR money in the way they feel is best for them. If the strategy you describe works for you.....or.....allows you to be comfortable as an investor......than IT IS GOOD. BUT.....in general.....here is what the ACADEMIC RESEARCH.......says is the problem with what you are theorizing. 1. How do YOU know when a bear market starts? It is NEVER as clear cut or obvious as you think......and....often what you think might be a bear market might ONLY be a correction....or might be a market head fake and ONLY last a week or two......or might simply be a typical time of MEDIA panic and fear mongering....OR the market ROARS back up right after your sell, etc, etc, etc. 2. How do you know when bear market ends? Again, it is NEVER clear cut or obvious for many many reasons. How are you going to GUESS when to get back in......and....actually be correct? 3. Even if you know a bear market is ending or starting....will you actually get out at the perfect time or get back in at the perfect time. Your theory above.........is very common thinking. It has been accepted as a PLAN by many investors over the decades. BUT.....the reality....as shown by the actual research is that....what seems so simple and logical in theory is IMPOSSIBLE to actually do in reality. Trying to time the markets.....and....move in and out at just the right times is IMPOSSIBLE. This sort of behavior is why the research shows that over the long term investors will LAG the general averages like the SP500 SEVERELY. Investors trying to market time and jumping in and out will ONLY average 2-5% over the long term.....versus......10-11% for an unmanaged average like the SP500. The ACADEMIC research shows that investors trying to GUESS when to get out of the markets or when to get in the markets are right about 50% of the time. SO.....in my opinion....simply RANDOM CHANCE. By ONLY being right half the time.....returns take a severe hit. If you want more information....simply "google"......."does market timing work research". HERE are some of the articles you will find: Market Timing: More Evidence Why It Doesn't Work https://www.ifa.com/articles/market-timing_more_evidence_really_doesnt_work/ Market Timing Fails As A Money Maker https://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/07/market_timing.asp Market Timing: The Importance of Doing Nothing https://www.kiplinger.com/article/i...t-timing-the-importance-of-doing-nothing.html 6 Reasons Why Market Timing Is For Suckers https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimwan...market-timing-is-for-suckers/?sh=544577ae49d8 I could post THOUSANDS of articles and much actual research that backs up the above articles....but in the end....every investor must learn for themselves. IN my opinion......... it is VERY DANGEROUS thinking to think that you can somehow........GUESS......when it is time to get out or get in. It is just as like as going to a CASINO and thinking that since black has come up five times in a row that red will come up next. Want to test your theory? WELL.....start a thread on this board......and.....post your actual holdings AND buy days and sell days....on the day they happen. You will than have a clear cut.......RECORD....... of your theory that you can look at a year or two or three or five down the road and see if you did actually come out ahead. I am NOT being FACETIOUS......I am suggesting a REAL experiment...that would be interesting for investors to observe. To really be accurate....you would need to do this for perhaps.....5 years....to get accurate results.
“Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” – Peter Lynch
FOR....those interested......HERE is a link that will take you to an ACTUAL Dalbar report......a good example of what they do and their findings: DALBAR 2018 QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF INVESTOR BEHAVIOR https://content.swanglobalinvestments.com/hubfs/Third Party Documents/Dalbar 2018 QAIB Report - Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior - Advisor Edition.pdf This will give you some idea of their research. The CHART on page 6 shows their research results for average equity investors returns for 1, 3, 5, 10 and 20 years......versus....the SP500.
The out time seems straightforward to me, namely when a position drops 7%. The time to get back in isn't so straight forward. Thanks for giving me something to think about.
I'm a firm believer that you don't time the market, it times you. However I have learned to be patient and a little more cautious. I hold 1 position long term and have done very well playing the option sides lately without fighting the trend. Instead of tying up the majority of my capital in holdings. I'm simply riding the wave. We all have different methods.
gtrudeau88 Interesting discussion......thank you. OK....but my question is.....what does a single stock going down 7% have to do with whether or not we are entering a ......"bear market"? And....if a 7% drop is your criteria to sell that means that you will NOT be timing bear markets......you will be simply timing EACH individual holding based on dropping 7%. I DOUBT that a 7% drop in one holding has any correlation with a bear market.....or any correlation with selling any other position. BUT.....I am not intending to give investing advice. The ONLY way you will know if you have created a trading system that works will be to.....give it a try.....with REAL holdings and REAL money. THUS....my suggestion for a gtrudeau88 trading thread.
WELL....I STILL have a gain today....but...7 of my 12 stock positions are currently down. Looks like this will be one of those days that is extremely stock specific. Market close...will tell the story for each specific investor today. ON a different topic.....I post once in a while about real estate conditions in my area. I have previously posted that my "little" area has 3000 homes. WELL.....I saw in the paper the other day that we actually have.......4200 homes. The strong market continues with 2 homes for sale above $2.6MIL and 3 homes for sale below. That is it....five homes out of 4200....if you want to buy here. I suspect that most if not all of the 3 homes below $2.6MIL are already pending.....even though they are shown as active listings.
