The Long Term Investor

Hey Rustic1.

I really have no opinion on oil or shipping stocks. I just dont follow either. Over the decades I have owned Exxon and Chevron. But...they just never seemed to do much and every time I owned either of them....I ended up being disappointed and selling. I finally gave up on the oil stocks. I am just not a fan of companies that the products are commodities.

Shipping stocks? I have never owned any.....so.....dont really have any knowledge.

 

GO Zukodany........LOL....I am with you.

In 25-75 years.....there will be no Bitcoin. BECAUSE......everyone that bought it will be dead or senile and no one will be able to access their thumb drive or account without the password or even have any idea where or how they stored them. I have seen estimates as high as 20-28% of Bitcoin is already lost and unrecoverable. SO....since the supply will be limited....over time 50-60-70-80% of them will end up unrecoverable.

https://news.bitcoin.com/analyst-15...ss-than-14-million-coins-will-ever-circulate/

"Since 2010, about 4% of the Available Supply of bitcoin has been lost each year. This puts the current Available Supply at about 13.9 million coins, well below the 18.3 million Total Supply figure publicized. This means that about 28% of all bitcoins have been Irretrievably Lost"

Just being facetious.......perhaps.

 

My view on Crypto.

If it starts to ACTUALLY become a mainstream form of currency and method of payment.....GOVERNMENT.....will NOT allow it to happen. GOVERNMENT.....will NOT.....allow an unregulated alternative to their power to control, manipulate, and manage currency. The stronger Bitcoin or other Crypto currencies get.....the more government will CO-opt them.

If they get to the point of actually challenging government currency for dominance they will either be banned or regulated into basically being....government currency. The FED and the GOVERNMENT are NOT going to give up their power to control money.

The dream of having a.........money alternative.......that is totally democratic and free of control....is just that....a dream. It WILL NOT be allowed. Just like government BANNED the private holding of gold.......BITCOIN can be put out of business in an INSTANT.....if....it starts to come into conflict with GOVERNMENT POWER.

It will be JUSTIFIED.....for the public good....to prevent terrorism.....to prevent crime....to prevent fraud.....to protect the economy.....etc, etc, etc.

The US Constitution states:

Article I, Section 8, there is “Congress shall have Power…to coin Money, regulate the Value thereof, and of foreign Coin.” And from Section 10, “no state…shall make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts.”

ULTIMATELY....government WILL use these sections.....plus.....pass laws and regulations.....to basically take over or eliminate...........any Crypto that is a danger to government power. The FEW people that are LIBERTARIAN.........or CRAZY.....enough to think they can beat back government on this issue....will be CRUSHED in the (government) courts and probably charged as criminals. I can EASILY FORESEE......a time when government institutes a form of CONSTITUTIONAL IMMINENT DOMAIN toward Crypto....and require it ALL to be turned over to the government.....just as they did with gold.

 

For those that doubt the ability and will of government to CRUSH Crypto whenever they wish....here is reality.

For those......that dont know HISTORY......or are out of touch....or......through no fault of their own got a bad education......here is the history of gold being Illegal for private citizens in the USA:

How the US government seized all citizens’ gold in 1930s

https://theconversation.com/how-the-us-government-seized-all-citizens-gold-in-1930s-138467

When Owning Gold Was Illegal in America: And Why It Could Be Again

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/when-owning-gold-was-ille_b_10708196

"In 1933, Franklin D. Roosevelt was elected president of the United States by promising to end the Great Depression, which had driven the national unemployment rate up to 25% and gutted the economy.

During his presidential campaign, FDR promised to lower government spending and taxes, and balance the budget. Once in office, he did the exact opposite. FDR’s government spent more in an effort to create jobs and increase consumer demand. He raised taxes to fund the hike in spending, as well key government services. All of this was meant to stimulate the economy while assisting struggling American households, in order to bring the nation out of the depths of the economic depression that had begun with the 1929 stock market crash.

FDR quickly realized, however, that he could not print enough money to pay for his spending program, even by increasing taxes. The Federal Reserve Act of 1914 limited the amount of money that could be printed by the government. All Federal Reserve notes (paper money) had to be backed by 40 percent gold owned by the Federal government. In other words, for every dollar printed, the government needed 40 cents of gold in the bank.





FDR Outlaws Gold

One of FDR’s first acts as president, therefore, was to declare the fact that Americans were withdrawing their gold and currency from the beleaguered banking system “a national emergency.” He ordered all banks to close from March 6-9 “in order to prevent the export, hoarding, or earmarking of gold or silver coin or bullion or currency.”

Because he believed this action was not sufficient to prevent runs on banks and the resulting drain of gold from the system, on April 5, 1933, one month after taking office, Roosevelt used the powers granted to the president by the Trading with the Enemy Act of 1917 to make gold ownership illegal. He issued Executive Order 6102, which made gold ownership—both in coins and in bars—illegal for all Americans and punishable by up to ten years in prison. Anyone caught with gold would also have to pay a fine of twice the amount of gold that was not turned over to the Federal Reserve in exchange for paper money.



Americans Required to Hand Gold Into the Government
All Americans were required to turn in their gold on or before May 1, 1933 to the Federal Reserve in return for $20.67 of paper money per troy ounce. Americans who did not turn in their gold were subject to arrest on criminal charges and faced up to 10 years in federal prison. An exception was made for dentists, who could own up to 100 ounces. Proclamation 6102 also prohibited the use of gold in contracts. This was upheld by the Supreme Court on March 1935, in what were called the Gold Clause Cases.




Millions of Americans waited in long lines to hand in their gold. Many photos from this era are often cited as examples of people getting their money out of the banks when in fact, they were simply turning in their gold in accordance with FDR’s new laws.

With gold and paper money now separated, FDR was able to increase the federal deficit by issuing bonds (debt) in exchange for paper money. He used the paper money raised through government bond issues to pay for the many government programs he initiated as part of his New Deal program.

Sadly, FDR’s New Deal did not end the Great Depression. Instead, in 1937, the stock market collapsed by 90 percent and unemployment soared. Then, in the 1970s, the U.S. government removed the last remaining restraint on federal government deficits.

Nixon Ends The Gold Standard
At that time, foreign countries could exchange dollars they received through international trade for gold held by the American government, at $32 per ounce. In 1971, gold started to pour out of the U.S. government’s stockpile due to large deficits in both the federal budget and the trade balance. At 9 PM on August 15, 1971, President Richard Nixon gave a televised speech to the nation, announcing that he was taking the dollar off the “Gold Standard.” This move enabled the dollar to float freely against other currencies, and removed the final obstacle to ballooning federal deficits and trade imbalances.

The prohibition against owning gold wasn’t uplifted until 1974 when President Gerald Ford— unaware that it was a federal felony to own gold—saw sound-money advocate Jim Blanchard on TV raising a bar of gold and asking from his wheelchair: “Why can I not own this?”

Ford signed proclamation Pub.L. 93-373, which legalized gold ownership and also made it legal to include gold clauses in contracts, effective 1977. Ford failed, however, to reestablish gold as a back up to government fiat or the American dollar.

Deficits Climb and the Dollar Falls
As a result, deficits continued to mount. Today, the U.S. federal deficit is at $19 trillion with another $70 trillion in off-balance-sheet debt, which can be triggered if certain individuals or institutions renege on debts that the Federal government has guaranteed. The purchasing power of the U.S. dollar has precipitously declined, as well.



(source)

Do Today’s Presidential Candidates Think the Same Way?
To hear several U.S. presidential candidates remark that “we can always print more money” is disturbing. It was that line of thinking—first with FDR and later with Nixon—that instigated today’s mounting deficits and the dollar’s declining purchasing power. Printing more money is fraught with the very real risk of creating high rates of inflation that will destroy the purchasing power of the dollar further, and potentially damage every American’s savings and the livelihoods of people living on fixed incomes such as Social Security.

Could the Federal government ever move to seize gold from American citizens again? When the government nationalized gold coin and bullion nearly 80 years ago, it gave Americans less than a month to turn in their gold. It’s hard to imagine this happening again, but it’s important to be aware of the very real history of gold confiscation in the U.S. and to be conscious of the economic pressures that could make a president decide to take such action again."

MY COMMNENT

YOU can......bet your bippy.....that GOVERNMENT can and will do this with CRYPTO......in an instant........if or when they need to in order to protect their power and to justify their actions.

Those of us......that are ancient....remember VERY WELL....when every dollar bill stated on the face of the bill......."ONE DOLLAR in silver payable to the bearer on demand"....same with $5 or $10 or any bill. The certificates were initially redeemable for their face value in silver dollar coins and later (for one year – June 24, 1967 to June 24, 1968) in raw silver bullion.

GOVERNMENT.......has EXTREME power over the form, content, distribution, use, and creation of money and other assets. YOU own them at.....governments...... convenience.

I am NOT a gold nut.....or conspiracy theorist.......if I was I would not be a stock investor.....BUT....I do understand the way politics and power works.

 

The above.....posts by me.....ASSUME......a BIG assumption.....that ZUKODANY is not right and this stuff becomes REAL.

Yeah....enough for me too......as an owner of 1/62.....of one Bitcoin.

It is....however.....a very fascinating.....and current/timely topic.

 

Since it is the weekend.....and....I am currently home-bound on......ICE PLANET ZERO.....and....the stock markets will not be open till.....THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW.....here is another interesting little future investment scheme being floated right now:

There’s a Plan to Bring Sports Gambling to the Futures Market

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...o-bring-sports-gambling-to-the-futures-market

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"The futures market is often referred to as Wall Street’s casino. Now, in a twist, there’s a proposal to let casinos start trading futures.

The marriage of the gambling industry and high finance is being pushed by a cryptocurrency exchange and a Washington lawyer. Hoping to grab a piece of the billions of dollars flowing into the U.S. sports betting industry, they’ve designed futures contracts based on National Football League games and are petitioning regulators to bless them.

That could be challenging: Congress banned financial instruments involving gaming in 2010. But the promoters argue that the futures, tied to the outcome of a football game, have nothing to do with gambling. Instead, they’re marketing the contracts as risk management tools for legal sportsbooks, akin to any other financial derivative a business might use to offset potential losses or protect against price swings. They’re essentially asking regulators to think of casino operators as farmers, but instead of using futures as insurance against a bad crop they might be trying to hedge a Tampa Bay Buccaneers win.

Trading in the football futures would be limited to licensed sportsbooks, vendors, and companies that agree to help set prices and take the other side of trades as market makers. Individuals and hedge funds that may just want to speculate on the contracts would be barred from the market. “This is not a substitute for gaming,” says Thomas Chippas, the chief executive officer of ErisX, the exchange that wants to list the contracts. “There is underlying economic risk that is being hedged.”

ErisX formally asked the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in mid-December to approve the futures, setting off a 90-day waiting period so that the agency could seek comments from the public. The exchange and its partner, attorney Jeff Ifrah, have spent several months meeting with the agency’s commissioners and making their case with help from a well-connected CFTC lobbying firm, Delta Strategy Group. If the CFTC assents to their proposal, they would like to quickly offer futures for professional basketball and baseball as well.

Sports Betting
The CFTC is treading carefully. It’s asked interested parties to weigh in on a series of questions, including whether the futures “are contrary to the public interest”; whether they could be used to influence the outcome of a sporting event; and if the products would fall under the ban on gaming contracts. If the agency signs off, some critics say the regulator, which was established mainly to police agricultural commodities and protect farmers, would be entering into territory it knows little about.

It could also in essence be putting a government stamp of approval on the gambling industry. Even if individuals are never allowed to trade such futures, giving gaming companies the ability to transfer some of their risk would allow casinos to accept more—and larger—wagers. “The only winner under this type of proposal are the casinos themselves,” says Les Bernal, national director of the Washington advocacy group Stop Predatory Gambling. “It’s going to lead to citizens losing billions of dollars more money than they already are losing.”

The CFTC’s “approval is highly unlikely,” says Patrick McCarty, who runs his own government affairs firm and as a Senate Agriculture Committee aide helped draft the derivatives provisions in the 2010 law that barred gaming contracts. He also notes that the CFTC should be wary of setting a precedent that down the road could put it in the position of doing an end run around gambling regulation, which is the responsibility of the states. “It’s like opening a door that the commission doesn’t want to go through.”

Another potential hurdle is the sports leagues themselves. In comments to the CFTC, both the NFL and the National Basketball Association were lukewarm on the prospect, saying the agency should take its time studying the issue. “We want to work with the sports leagues to make sure their concerns are addressed,” Ifrah says.

The CFTC’s decision is likely to be closely watched not only in the gaming world but also on Wall Street, where gambling is a favorite pastime of traders. Gaming is seen as a big business opportunity as well. Betting on individual sporting events, which was legalized by the Supreme Court in 2018, now accounts for an estimated $1.4 billion in annual revenue in the U.S., and data firm H2 Gambling Capital predicts that may double soon. Twenty-five states and the District of Columbia now allow sports wagering, and more are considering legalizing it.

“The numbers in this space are enormous,” says Chippas of ErisX. His company was brought into the venture after its lobbyists at Delta Strategy introduced the company to Ifrah. A criminal defense attorney who’s also developed an expertise in gaming law, Ifrah came up with the idea for the contracts and launched a business called RSBIX to design and market them. The lawyer says he’s never placed a bet himself.

In its application, ErisX is seeking approval for three different types of contracts on NFL games, each mirroring a common type of bet. One is based on the so-called moneyline, a wager on the outright winner of the game. Another contract takes into account the point spread for the favored team. And the third is on the “over-under,” or the total points scored. The futures are designed to help solve a problem in sports betting that’s cropped up because it’s legal only in individual states. That can result in the local team drawing most of the wagers, setting up a sportsbook for an imbalance that could potentially lead to a big loss.

The problem is particularly acute, the futures advocates say, with high-profile events such as the Super Bowl. In its CFTC application, ErisX cited reports of Rhode Island- and New Jersey-licensed sportsbooks losing millions on the 2019 game between the New England Patriots and the Los Angeles Rams—which the Patriots won, 13-3—because of uneven betting. The disparity, ErisX and Ifrah say, could be eased by the gaming company buying or selling futures contracts on games it’s concerned about. Sportsbooks make money on fees charged to bettors, so they try to stay as neutral as possible in the wagers they accept.

The trades would work like this: A casino in Pennsylvania, say, that’s getting too many bets on the Philadelphia Eagles against the Patriots is nervous that an Eagles win will force it to pay out much more than it’s taken in. The casino goes to the exchange and sells contracts based on the game, taking a position that the Patriots will win. The buyer on the other side could be a sportsbook in New Hampshire with the opposite problem.

Once a sportsbook makes a request to buy or sell, it will go to a central order book where other casinos, vendors, and market makers could see the offer and agree to the trade. From that point on the futures can be bought and freely sold by any of the allowed market participants before the game.

One company that’s agreed to be involved as a market maker—helping set prices and agreeing to take the other side of trades—is Susquehanna International Group. One of the largest options traders in the world, it also owns a sports betting business in Ireland, though that’s not involved in the U.S. futures effort. “It’s such a novel concept that addresses this need when sportsbooks have reached their limits,” says David Pollard, head of strategic planning for Susquehanna.

MY COMMENT

SURE.....sounds crazy to me. BUT....than again.....so do many of the types of futures that are legal and traded now. The FUTURE.....will be very interesting.....as usual.

SORRY.....I could not resist the TV/movie references in the opening lines of this post.......with today's weather here.

 

YEAH.......HAPPY VALENTINES DAY.....STOCKAHOLICS.

 

AND.....Elon Musk? TomB16.

All kidding aside.....he IS one of my favorite business leaders right now. Even if I did not own any of Tesla. We does his own thing and does it well. He is FEARLESS....and like all great leaders.....somehow makes things happen.

 

I did not realize this last Friday. SO.....YES....we start from a good place on Tuesday when the markets reopen:

All three major U.S. stock indexes end week at new records before President’s Day holiday Monday

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/s...otches-record-close-11613132014?siteid=yhoof2

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"All three major U.S. stock indexes closed at record highs Friday, as investors eyed the prospect of more financial aid from Washington to boost the economic recovery, while coronavirus cases are falling and vaccine distribution ramps up.

The indexes have risen for two consecutive weeks, led by the energy sector, with crude oil prices at 12 month highs, and by the financials sector, helped by rising long term U.S. bond yields.

The U.S. stock market is closed Monday for the Presidents Day holiday.

What are major benchmarks doing?

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.09% rose 27.70 points, or 0.1%, to 31,458.40, closing at a record.
• The S&P 500 SPX, +0.47% climbed 18.45 points, or 0.5%, to 3,934.83, marking its second straight all-time high finish.
• The Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.50% gained 69.70 points, or 0.5%, to 14,095.47, booking another record close.

For the week, the Dow rose 1%, the S&P 500 gained 1.2%, and the Nasdaq picked up 1.7%.

What’s driving the market?
Stocks inched higher helped by optimism about another large fiscal stimulus package from Congress, as the coronavirus vaccination rollout picks up steam, and as quarterly corporate earnings reports impressed analysts.

“It’s boring to say but it’s so true. The most important thing to investors is keeping an eye on virus control and vaccine distribution. If that goes off the rails, everything gets thrown into turmoil,” Brandon Pizzurro, portfolio manager at Guidestone Capital Management, told MarketWatch.

Equities showed little reaction to the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index, which unexpectedly fell to a six-month low, reflecting pessimism about financial security, especially among lower-income Americans.

It’s why analysts see the prospect for further stock market gains tied to expectations that Congress will approve another round of aid spending closer to President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion proposal.

A House committee on Thursday approved half of Biden’s relief plan, advancing $1,400 payments to millions of Americans alongside other measures opposed by Republican lawmakers. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called for further fiscal support in a virtual meeting with G7 finance ministers and central bank governors.

The U.S. is on pace to exceed Biden’s goal of administering 100 million vaccine doses in his first 100 days in office, with more than 26 million shots delivered in the past three weeks. Roughly 34.7 million out of some 331 million Americans have received at least their first dose of vaccine, according to the CDC. In the past week, an average of 1.62 million doses a day were administered. Biden on Thursday said the U.S. will have enough COVID-19 vaccine by the end of the summer to inoculate 300 million Americans.

Corporate earnings have also been a positive factor, analysts said. As of Thursday, fourth-quarter earnings per share surpassed prior year levels and four-quarter rolling EPS are now expected to hit records in the second quarter, said Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist at Credit Suisse, in a note.

Though stock-market valuations were on the higher-end of historical levels, the potential of U.S. large-capitalization businesses to post a sharp bounceback in profits meant markets were not as “frothy” as trading in individual stocks might suggest, said Lori Heinel, deputy global chief investment officer at State Street Global Advisors, in an interview.

“The U.S. has the biggest likelihood of achieving its earnings estimates,” said Heinel.

Trading activity was subdued though Friday. Much of Asia was closed due to holidays, while U.S. investors were preparing for a three-day weekend. U.S. markets will be closed Monday for Presidents Day.

Which companies are in focus?

• Shares of Walt Disney Co. DIS, -1.70% fell 1.8% even after the entertainment juggernaut late Thursday delivered a surprise fourth-quarter profit, which came as a surge in Disney+ subscriptions led a revenue rebound from the previous quarter.
• S&P Global Ratings said Thursday afternoon it had downgraded Chevron Corp. CVX, +0.58% bonds to AA-, from AA, with a stable outlook. Shares of the oil giant gained 0.6%.
• Shares of Cloudflare Inc. NET, -5.84% slid 5.8% after the cybersecurity company’s results and outlook topped Wall Street expectations on Thursday. The shares have surged nearly 400% over the last 12 months.
• Expedia Group Inc. EXPE, -2.27% late Thursday reported results that showed the continued effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the travel industry, with gross bookings and revenue each plunging 67% in the fourth quarter. Shares finished down 2.3%.
• Shares of Coherent Inc. COHR, +13.75% soared 13.8%, after The Wall Street Journal reported that II-VI Inc. IIVI, -9.70% plans to make a roughly $6.5 billion bid for the laser technology company. Shares of IIVI fell 9.7%.
• South Korean e-commerce retailer Coupang filed for an initial public offering in the U.S.

What are other markets doing?

• The yield on the 10-year Treasury note TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.209% jumped 3.1 basis points at 1.199%. Yields and bond prices move in opposite directions.
• The ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY, +0.03%, a measure of the currency against a basket of six major rivals, was up 0.1%.
• Oil futures edged higher, with the U.S. benchmark CL.1, +2.56% rose 2.1% to $59.47 a barrel, nearing the key $60 level. Gold futures GC00, -0.11% ended 0.2% lower to settle at $1,823.30 an ounce, trimming an 0.6% weekly gain.
• The pan-European Stoxx 600 index SXXP, +0.64% rose 0.6% and London’s FTSE 100 stock index UKX, +0.94% gained 0.9%.
• Markets in Hong Kong and Shanghai were closed for the Lunar New Year holiday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index NIK, -0.14% shed 0.1%."

MY COMMENT

Yes....vaccines are steadily plugging away and as you would expect the number of people vaccinated will multiply week by week as we move toward a steady supply stream. And.....the impeachment DRAMA is now over.

The BIG ONE.....for me.....we are coming out of this economic shutdown with.....REALLY NICE.....company financials. AND....from where we are right now....there is HUGE UPSIDE over the next year for company financials to....ECLIPSE....ALL prior records...quarter after quarter. This.....room to run......has the potential to take markets and HIGH QUALITY companies to record share prices. In my opinion....all companies will benefit from this....but those with great management and the ability to execute will really SHINE.

We are NOW where we have ALL been waiting for.....the end of the pandemic and the TOTAL reopening of the economy. POTENTIALLY......no, not a sure thing....but definately potentially......a GOLDEN TIME for stock and fund investors.