Back from my rehearsal.......NO........I dont have any cash (stock market money) set aside....EVER. I do have $20,000 to $25,000 available for investment in December of each year from the upcoming new years budget. So I invest those funds some time in December....ALL in as usual. AND.....I should know not to argue on the internet......it is just not productive......so I am putting myself on double secret probation and moving on. BUT....for the moment....I am busy elsewhere and will post later.
Wxyz, I don't want to turn this wonderful thread into a war zone. I will drop off for a while and just post elsewhere occasionally.
Nobody needs to go anywhere. Everyone has made their strategies clear. We all know where each other stands. We're good. Like I said, I think we are all on the same page, but words get misinterpreted far too easily on forums. If we all throw in the occasional and and drink some of Rustic's now depleted whisky, all will be well in Stockville Okay, too many emojis for one post.
Always keep a lil whiskey around. Keeps the old bones warm trying to protect the herd from coyotes that try to eat my young calves. This little critter was trying to be slick. He had a bad day at the farm. Made a long distance phone call.
WELL.....I think after 189 pages it is pretty OBVIOUS.....how and why....I invest the way I do. PROBABILITY based investing.....based on the long term market probabilities....AND.....the academic research findings regarding investor behavior and returns.....combined with 45+ years of personal experience investing in this fashion. My purpose....as I have said....in this thread is to create.....basically.....a personal investing journal. I have no intent or pretense that I am here to....."EDUCATE"....anyone. If someone gets something they can use in their own investing life from this thread or any of my comments.....good. If you dont.....well....good too. I agree with some of the prior comments. I have NO REASON to have money siting in cash. FOR me....the ONLY productive money....is money that is in the markets. I am satisfied with the stocks and funds that I own.....for the long term. I consider it a waste to have some chunk of money siting and waiting for some unknown future buy. ESPECIALLY since I have..NO INTEREST in short term trading, day trading, market timing, Technical analysis, dollar cost averaging, etc, etc. LITERALLY.....the amount of cash in my primary account is......5 cents. That is my.....cash balance.
AND....my view on bond yields...inflation.....and other general economic data points. I dont care what they are. I am stuck with them whatever they are as an investor. I rely on the GOOD corporate managers of the companies that I own to manage their business with whatever the underlying economic conditions happen to be. SO.....what yields are, commodities, gold/silver, Bitcoin, inflation, unemployment, the FED tight, the FED lose, politics,.....whatever....I have no control over it and I am certainly NOT going to jump in and out of positions to try to somehow invest according to the general economy. I happen to own......12...... very specific businesses and how those businesses perform is ALL I care about. Same with the funds that I own. How the SP500 or the Contra Fund perform is up to them. As long as I am satisfied at the end of the year with how they did....that is ALL I care about. I REFUSE to invest by.....micromanagement.
After rehearsing today....I am looking forward to the show tomorrow in San Antonio. Two 75 minute sets with a 30 minute break in the middle. Should be GORGEOUS weather with the temperature in the high 60's to low 70's and blue sky. A nice protected bandstand in case of wind......and a good sound-man. For me it will be an 8-9 hour day.
I have had some times in my investing life that I took a walk on the dark side and did some short term "stuff". In the Dot-com boom era I momentum traded 1000 share lots in a few select stocks.....COST, SBUX, AMGN, and a few others. It was easy to do well in that environment. Most of my trades at that time lasted 1-5 days. I did very well, mostly due to the type of market we were in at that time. Amgen had a lawsuit with one of their competitors at the time and I had 1000 shares outstanding at the time the news hit that they had prevailed. That was a BIG GAIN, couple of day, trade. BUT.....live by the gun, die by the gun......
Since it is the weekend.....time to talk about a topic that is on the fringe of investing.....retirement income....specifically income annuities. Of course.....this is ALL related to long term investing....since at some point everyone.....that is not a government worker....WILL have to manage their investment money to fund their retirement. It becomes a task of balancing.....stock market risk....with a steadily decreasing asset as money is pulled out for retirement.......and at the same time.......the RISK becomes higher....and....the time to recover from some adverse event becomes LESS. For the average investor it s going to be a RACE between account value and life expectancy. In my lifetime.....I have seen some pretty savvy investors....that were pretty well off....end up having to really budget and cut costs in retirement.......as their investment returns and gains.....as a function of risk..... were NOT able to keep up in retirement. I have approached that dilemma through the use of INCOME ANNUITIES along with Social Security....to create a substantial BASELINE income for my life and the life of my wife. This is ONE approach.....to convert a portion of your assets into a lifetime income stream. This is a basic decision that EVERYONE will face when in or approaching retirement. SO.....I like this little article on INCOME ANNUITIES. I WILL state.....I DO NOT.....like or recommend to friends and family....all the various other types of annuities that are insurance/Index/investment/etc vehicles and are SOLD as such. To me it is a question of the GOOD ANNUITIES.....simple income annuities.....versus....the BAD ANNUITIES...all the other types that you see typically badmouthed in the investing media. Annuities Just May Be the Broccoli of Retirement Planning Deferred income annuities are good for your long-term retirement health, but most people still don’t seem to crave them. But if you want to quit worrying about running out of money in retirement, you may want to dish one up. https://www.kiplinger.com/retiremen...st-may-be-the-broccoli-of-retirement-planning (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Few of us would go without auto, home, life or health insurance. But the kind of insurance that protects against the risk of running out of money in old age is still greatly underutilized. It’s called a deferred income annuity or a longevity annuity. I believe most people planning for retirement should strongly consider an income annuity, and a Brookings Institution report confirms that belief. The concept of this type of annuity is simple. The buyer deposits a lump sum or series of payments with an insurer. In return, the insurer guarantees to pay you a stream of income in the future. That’s why it’s known as a deferred income annuity. You choose when your payments will begin. Most people choose lifetime payments starting at age 80 or older. Guaranteed lifetime income is a cost-effective way to insure against running out of money during very old age. The main disadvantage is that the annuity has no liquidity. You’ve transferred your money to an insurance company in exchange for a guarantee of future income. People who can’t afford to tie up any of their money shouldn’t buy a deferred income annuity. What’s Behind the Reluctance to Buy Annuities Given that traditional company pensions have largely gone away, there should be great demand for income annuities, Martin Neil Baily of Brookings and Benjamin Harris of the Kellogg School of Management write in the 2019 Brookings Institution report, titled “Can Annuities Become a Bigger Contributor to Retirement Security?” But the demand just isn’t there. Why? A few reasons: People overestimate their ability to invest money wisely. They’re also concerned that if they don’t live long enough, the annuity won’t be worth the cost. But that’s a wrong-headed view, according to Baily and Harris, because it’s the insurance that’s the most valuable aspect of the annuity. And the topic is confusing to consumers, in part because of the terminology. Annuities include both income annuities as well as fixed, indexed and variable annuities that are primarily savings or investment vehicles, they point out. Why Do Deferred Income Annuities Work So Well? Income deferral is a key part of the equation. The insurer invests your money so it grows until you begin receiving income. For instance, if you buy an annuity at age 55 and don’t start income payments until 85, you reap the advantage of 30 years of compounded growth without current taxes. You reap the same growth and tax advantages with a 401(k) or an IRA, but with a nonqualified annuity (one that’s not in a retirement plan) you don’t have to take required minimum distributions (RMDs) starting at age 72 and thus can extend tax deferral. Furthermore, nonqualified annuities aren’t subject to annual limits on contributions like IRAs and 401(k)s are, so you can stash away much more if you like. The longer you delay taking payments from deferred income annuities and the older you are when you start taking them, the greater the monthly payout. Second, buyers who do not live to an advanced old age subsidize those who do. Such risk-sharing is how all insurance works, whether it’s home, auto or longevity insurance. No More Worries about Running Out of Money A deferred income annuity provides unique flexibility in planning your retirement. Suppose you plan to retire at 65. You can use part of your savings to buy a deferred income annuity that will provide lifetime income starting at 85, for example. Then, with the balance of your retirement money, you only need to create an income plan that gets you from age 65 to 85 — instead of indefinitely. You don’t have to deal with the uncertainty of trying to make your money last for your entire lifetime. The Brookings report makes a similar point. An income annuity can substitute for bonds in a portfolio. For instance, suppose a couple’s allocation is 60% equities and 40% bonds. The couple could safely sell all their bonds and use the proceeds to buy an income annuity. Holding an annuity provides stability in a retirement portfolio … making it unnecessary to hold bonds, or hold the same amount in bonds. Also, since you know you’ll have assured lifetime income later on, you can feel less constrained about spending money in the early years of your retirement. A Couple of Annuity Options to Consider If you’re married, you and your spouse can each buy individual longevity annuities. Or you can purchase a joint payout version, where payments are guaranteed as long as either spouse is living. What happens if you die before you start receiving payments or after only a few years when the total amount of payments received is less than the original deposit? To deal with that risk, most insurers offer a return-of-premium option that guarantees your beneficiaries will receive the original deposit premium. This is a popular option, but it does reduce the payout amount slightly when compared to the payout amount without the return-of-premium guarantee. If you don’t have a spouse or anyone else you want to leave money to, you won’t need this option. MY COMMENT THERE is MUCH content on the internet about INCOME ANNUITIES. SO...it is easy to educate yourself. The PAYOUT on these products is based on the.....10 year treasury yield. SO.....if interest rates rise......or become significantly inflated....this is one way to lock in those higher yields as a lifetime income. These products are NOT for everyone....but for those that want some source of guaranteed income in retirement with NO stock market or other risk....this is one option. We ALL think we are going to invest in retirement and have no issues as the stock markets......will take care of our needs. The VAST MAJORITY of people are going to find out that it is a little more difficult than they anticipated. It will be interesting to watch as the BABY BOOM and other generations deal with this. This site is one of my favorites and cited in hundreds of articles over the years: https://www.immediateannuities.com/...WFePpSpmOrG1Nn_Zg4PkpgelEGTsk3EgaAheOEALw_wcB They specialize in income annuities. If you click on the above you will go to their annuity calculator. You can play with it or the advanced calculator to get REAL.....CURRENT....annuity pay out information. Their calculators give REAL CURRENT DATA. AND.....it does not require you to give your contact info or email address or phone number.
HERE is the important earnings news we will get next week..... Top Earnings to Watch This Week: Home Depot, Nvidia, Salesforce https://www.thestreet.com/investing...epot-nvidia-salesforce?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Just over 10% of S&P 500 companies are set to report financial results in the week ahead including travel and leisure companies, a big DIY retailer and some notable tech names. Here’s a look at five key reports to keep an eye out for this upcoming week. Royal Caribbean Royal Caribbean Group (RCL) - Get Report is expected to report a quarterly loss of $5.20 a share on sales of $35.6 million before the market opens on Monday, based on a FactSet survey of 12 analysts. In the same period a year ago the company posted earnings of $1.42 a share on sales of $2.5 billion. It reported net income of $883.2 million. The stock has risen 39.6% since the company last reported earnings on Oct. 29 amid hopes for economic re-openings that are vital to the cruise industry. Home Depot Home Depot, Inc. (HD) - Get Report is expected to report quarterly earnings of $2.62 a share on sales of $30.6 billion before the market opens on Tuesday, based on a FactSet survey of 28 analysts. In the same period a year ago the company posted earnings of $2.28 a share on sales of $25.8 billion. It reported a net income of $2.8 billion. The stock has risen 3.9% since the company last reported earnings on Nov. 17. NVIDIA Corp NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) - Get Report is expected to report quarterly earnings of $2.81 a share on sales of $4.8 billion after the market closes on Wednesday, based on a FactSet survey of 34 analysts. In the same period a year ago the company posted earnings of $1.89 a share on sales of $3.1 billion. It reported a net income of $899 million. The stock has risen 10.4% since the company last reported earnings on Nov. 18. TJX) - Get Reportis expected to report quarterly earnings of 61 cents a share on sales of $11.5 billion before the market opens on Wednesday, based on a FactSet survey of 26 analysts. In the same period a year ago the company posted earnings of 81 cents a share on sales of $12.2 billion. It reported a net income of $828.3 million. The stock has risen 9.7% since the company last reported earnings on Nov. 18. Salesforce com Salesforce.com, inc. (CRM) - Get Report is expected to report quarterly earnings of 75 cents a share on sales of $5.7 billion after the market closes on Thursday, based on a FactSet survey of 37 analysts. In the same period a year ago the company posted earnings of 66 cents a share on sales of $4.9 billion. It reported a loss of 109 million. The company offered guidance of $0.73 - 0.74 a share on Dec. 2 at the time of its last financial report. Shares have risen 11.9% since then. MY COMMENT My main interest is Home Depot on Tuesday and Nvidia on Wednesday.......since I own both of them.
I ALSO like this little article as we head into the start of a new week. Wall St. Climbs a Wall of Worry https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-st-climbs-wall-worry-170027535.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The markets were not so friendly this week … why it’s nothing to worry about … Louis Navellier’s strategy for making money in any market. The markets took a breather last week. That’s the one-line explanation about what felt like a market pause after a super January and early February. Markets are pointing up as I write Friday morning, but investors this week seemed more concerned than before about a few things. For example, another 861,000 people filed first time unemployment claims last week, a four-week high. And the severe winter weather was slowing the pace of COVID vaccinations. “Wall Street loves to climb a wall of worry and there is a lot to be worried about this last week,” said stock-picking legend Louis Navellier. That’s not to say Louis is ready to move toward a bearish stance. In fact, if you read Louis Navellier this week, he noted that this kind of market pause is completely predictable. ***In a message to his readers, the editor of Accelerated Profits attributed the pause to three factors First of all, at the end of any earnings announcement season, the market likes to “burp” and digest its gains. The fourth-quarter earnings announcement season has been particularly stunning, as S&P 500 earnings and sales are expected to rise 2.9% and 2.8%, respectively. As you may recall, earnings and sales were initially expected to be down for the quarter. The second factor is the change in leadership. You may have noticed that some of the big NASDAQ names are growing tired. For example, Tesla (TSLA) hasn’t traded well these past two weeks. The reality is that it’s beginning to lose some of its luster as more competition from auto manufacturers is mounting… Keep in mind that Tesla is not making money on EVs but instead has been selling carbon credits to other manufacturers. This way they can meet California and European Union (EU) emission standards. So another issue is that as more competitors begin selling EVs, it’s possible that Tesla will receive fewer tax credits, which will weigh on its bottom line… The third factor is interest rates, as the 10-year Treasury yield is sitting around 1.3%. The problem is that the stock market competes with the bond market. In theory, the bond market could divert some money away from the stock market as yield-hungry investors chase the higher yields in Treasuries. However, the Dow and S&P 500 continue to yield significantly more than the 10-year Treasury, with the Dow’s yield at 2.4%. Louis explained more in one of his periodic podcasts that go out free to subscribers during fast-moving market conditions. In a podcast to his Accelerated Profits subscribers, he noted that the selling this week is on light volume, which means there is no panic selling. Plus, he noted that money is zig-zagging to some defensive stocks. That means money isn’t leaving the market, just “sloshing around.” Another bit of good news came in the retail sales report. January U.S. retail sales increased 5.3%, the third largest month-over-month increase on record. States easing lockdown restrictions, plus some more government stimulus getting to people led to the increased retail activity. Louis also highlighted one more stat he characterized as the most amazing this week. On Wednesday, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker on Wednesday predicted the economy will grow at a 9.5% seasonally adjusted annual rate in the first quarter, up from a 4.5% estimate. “I’m shocked, I’m absolutely shocked, I think they will have to revise that again,” he said. ***In sum, Louis is not worried about the market pause this week. The continued focus on fundamentally sound stocks means sloshy market conditions don’t concern him. This consolidation period shouldn’t last more than a couple of weeks, and once the stock market regains momentum, it should grow more narrow and fundamentally focused. "" MY COMMENT YES.......what it boils down to is just a NORMAL market. AND......many micromanaging stock and fund holders that are jumpy.....real jumpy. I see more short term trading going on now than....ever. So the markets are going to just be shallow and erratic from day to day week to week. Longer holding times will tell a different story and reflect ACTUAL fundamentals. I deleted the last paragraphs of the article that are an advertisement. If you want to see them...click the link.
WXYZ, I decided to start at the beginning of this thread , page 1 , made it to page 4, where you wrote this: FOR EXAMPLE here is the stock split history for MICROSOFT back in the glory days. I held this stock from 1990 to 2002 and believe me, there was a lot of money made leading up to each of these splits. 09/21/1987 2 for 1 04/16/1990 2 for 1 06/27/1991 3 for 2 06/15/1992 3 for 2 05/23/1994 2 for 1 12/09/1996 2 for 1 02/23/1998 2 for 1 03/29/1999 2 for 1 02/18/2003 2 for 1 For example, In 1990, I scraped together ALL FREE CASH that I could and put it all, about $80,000 into MSFT as a single stock bet. (this was a HUGE amount of money in 1990) I bought 1000 shares. If my math is right by the completion of the 3-29-99 split my 1000 shares would have grown to 72,000 shares. Now THAT is UNLOCKING SHAREHOLDER VALUE. Of course I did not have quite that many shares since I did sell off a few along the way to diversify into other holdings. At my peak I probably had about 30,000 to 40,000 shares. BUT, this one long term trade resulted in a MASSIVE gain in the millions of dollars. The POWER of doing stock splits. This was an extreme time for this particular company obviously. This is the SINGLE BEST stock holding I have had. I just wanted to say "GOOD CALL" And you aren't even from Seattle , I remember those days too. I remember the anticipation of seeing that letter from my broker , tearing it open and looking to see how many shares of MSFT I know owned . Being a Seattle native , and having both a father and father-in-law that were heavily in the market , I got on that gravy train early too. In Seattle we all called them the "Microsoft Millionaires" My initial investment was about 25% of yours , and I got out (stupid me) in 2004 . But that's a long painful story for when my fingers aren't this cold. And I will say "It is the single best stock purchase I have ever made as well" Have Good night all
Well.....those days were something else. AND......yes....even though I grew up in Texas.....and.....live back here now....I was in Washington State for many years.. I lived in the Seattle area for 32 years. Over that time I lived in Tacoma, Gig Harbor, and Redmond. At the time I owned the MSFT stock I lived in Redmond......same place as the MSFT campus and headquarters. I know Western Washington very well...actually....the whole state. Living up there is how I got involved.....very early....in stocks like Costco, Starbucks, Microsoft, Nike, Home Depot and perhaps one or two more that I am not thinking of at the moment. ALL of those companies were money machines when young......when company management had the BRAINS to do stock splits. What a WASTE that companies now........STUPIDLY......refuse to do splits. Elon Musk had the brains and sense to do the recent Tesla split. He understands.
Good morning guys, I need good book recommendations on investing and finance, please feel free to suggest me any books that will help me gain knowledge.
OBSESSING over what you....should have done.....is a waste of time as an investor. BUT....there is nothing wrong with evaluating past investor behavior to improve on your results going forward. The Year Investors Endured A grueling 12 months carries timeless lessons for investors. https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/marketminder/the-year-investors-endured (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) 12 months ago today, the S&P 500 hit its final all-time high of a bull market that began way, way back in March 2009. What markets endured over the next five weeks was awful, as was the pandemic’s toll on humanity—which we are still living through even now. Yet despite all the terrible things that have happened, the S&P 500 is now up 17.7% since that prior peak, illustrating the timeless value of discipline and a cool head. The list of struggles and tragedy endured worldwide over the past year is overwhelming, to say the least. Beyond the pandemic and its horrible death toll, we had wildfires, tornadoes, floods and deep freezes. Locusts wiping out harvests throughout Africa. Deep political divisiveness. Societal unrest. These events have touched many lives, and as a society, we have learned many lessons from them. But for investors, there is one big takeaway: Markets rose as the vast majority of these troubles unfolded. Even the pandemic’s worst effects, from the mounting death toll to the deep economic contraction resulting from lockdowns, occurred after stocks bottomed in March. That sharp downturn was stocks’ way of anticipating the economic trouble to come. Keeping a forward-looking perspective—and staying disciplined—was key to capturing the recovery and reaping the cumulative gains since 2020 began. Saying that in hindsight is one thing. Doing it at the time, in the heat of panic, was likely exceedingly difficult for the vast majority of readers. Between February 19 and March 23, the S&P 500 plunged -33.8%.[ii] Adding to the panic was the handful of sheer vertical daily drops—like March 9’s -7.6%, March 12’s -9.9% and March 16’s -12.0%.[iii] Like pretty much any bear market and early recovery, big swings clustered together, adding to the sense of panic. While this bear market’s suddenness was unusual, volatility coming in clumps is normal in a bear market year, as the very long table at the end of this piece shows. But that heightened volatility cuts both ways, as bear market years also feature more big up days than pure bull market years—particularly in calendar years when a new bull market began midstream. Many of those big up days cluster around the bear market’s lowpoint, making it crucial to be invested when a bull market begins. This is why selling after a big decline is among the most devastating errors a long-term growth investor can make. That was among the chief risks investors faced last year, in our view. When stocks plunged in the winter, for many folks, the initial emotional response was shellshock. Most investors were frozen. That kept them invested during the downturn, likely causing no small distress to many. But it also meant they were invested when the recovery began, positioning themselves to ride the rebound. However, realizing that potential required staying invested as historically awful economic data came out in the spring and summer. While the death toll mounted. As unrest gripped the nation, wildfires choked the West Coast and Colorado—and ever so much more, all the way through the chaotic conclusion to a tense US election capped off by January 6’s Capitol riot. If you managed to stay cool and disciplined throughout that, you deserve a moment to congratulate yourself. If you didn’t, then don’t get discouraged. There will be more bear markets, and what matters is that you don’t erase bad decisions from your memory. Rather, acknowledge and learn from them. Take the lessons you learned and put them to use next time—and the times that will follow. If your big lesson was that stocks are forward-looking, and they can recover even as bad data roll in and unemployment climbs, take that with you. If your big lesson was that widely discussed fears don’t hurt markets as hard as everyone warns they will, then take that with you. For if we know one thing about the world, it is that bad times come along with the good, and 2020 won’t be the last test of investors’ mettle." Annex: Historical Volatility in Bull and Bear Market Years MY COMMENT YES......it is NEVER.....usually....worse than all the MEDIA and others are YELLING about. What we currently see in much of the financial media mirrors the general media. SENSATIONALISM.....opinion masquerading as fact.....and just downright pathetic ignorance of subject matter. It is ALL about clicks and views. They run in one big.....PACK. Like now.....it is 24/7......inflation, inflation, inflation and interest rates, interest rates, interest rates. The ONLY way to handle this environment as an investor is to......SIMPLY IGNORE THE CLAMORING CROWD. Do what you do....how you do it.....and continue on....ESPECIALLY if you are long term.
