Cathie Wood added to her already huge TSLA position in the ARKK fund yesterday. Clearly still bullish to her.
I hope you're correct, T. Speaking of Tesla's vertical integration, they have their own Tesla brand membrane that is used under the solar roof.
Hourly chart. When I started this post it was at $750. Expecting the gap to fill today down to $740. Hourly chart.
I want to say that I am pleased with my sale of Tesla but not because of any negative thought toward Tesla. I'd love to still own Tesla and continue to be bullish. Tesla will be a trillion dollar company, before too many years go by. The reason I sold is because the value was gone for me. The people who hold Tesla for the next 10 years will be rewarded. My problem is I don't have too many decades left and I need to start managing my money a bit more conservatively.
To expound on this a bit, since it's basically already there, if this loses that support of $740 that I drew a few minute ago, I'm expecting the next drop to be to $718, then if it loses $718, $697. Because of the volatility of this stock, it could be by end of month.
If that happens and they just barely scrape by in Q1, as I expect, I just might be able to buy back in at $600 before summer. This is just a fantasy, as I doubt it will happen, but I'd love to buy back in strong in April or May, right before giga factories start coming online and Tesla starts openly discussing their in-house cell manufacturing juggernaut.
Right. I'm not saying it will see those two price points, but those are what I'd expect to trigger if it loses each of my price points. If it loses $740 and holds below it for an hour or so, I'd expect $718 next.
Consider this: Tesla 2020 Revenue (minus carbon credits): 298M Tesla 2020 carbon credit revenue: 428M Tesla 30 day equity change from BTC purchase: > 1B Tesla has done a stellar job and I completely admire everyone at the company but, in terms of "Are you shitting me?", they were valued over 800B a couple of weeks ago. So, I really want to own Tesla and I would pay a huge premium but not 100x the five year earnings value which is already 10x the annual earnings value.
Further.... As a growth company, we can estimate Tesla will produce 2M vehicles in 2024. Assuming margin is maintained, that will be $1.2B of corporate revenue, minus non core earnings. At that point, Tesla will be a trillion dollar company but that is three years away and it already gives them credit for PE of more than 10 *in the future*. At this point, the only way Tesla will succeed is with autonomy. I have full confidence they will achieve autonomy and monitize it years before anyone else. Tesla is probably worth the current market cap but the valuation is based on speculation that, itself, is based on speculation. I believe Tesla provides some value but they no longer provide the deep value they once did. For that reason, I have re-allocated some of my stake in Tesla into a nicely distributing company and the rest into completely non-distributing cash. If there is an impactful event that causes a buzz of Tesla not being able to succeed, I will buy back in because I know they will succeed. I have zero doubt. It is not a bad investment in any way.
They have a solid 10yr lead on the rest of the market, its going to be a challenge to beat them for some time to come.
I will buy 1 share and it goes to 500. The MMs are out to get me. Going to be some sad longs this morning after they wake up. Fear will be in the air.
Cathie added more shares equal to the size of 0.5% of her portfolio in ARKK, ARKW, and ARKQ. A combined 273K shares yesterday.
I'm holding steady. At this point, I put a sizeable chunk of our Tesla cash into a REIT that is distributing nicely. It is paying a nice sum each month. Plus, I could buy back every share I sold and still have a bit of cash left over. For now, I am keeping my powder dry while I watch for opportunities.
Just a reminder, I said I wouldn't be shocked to see $600 a couple weeks ago when this was still over $800
