From the 29th of January through 2/19 I grew my account by 3.31%. Not bad. But the S&P 500 grew by 5.17% in the same time period, the Dow by 5%, and Nasdaq by 6.15%. The positions I've elected haven't been bad per se (3% gain is a gain not a loss) but I've haven't chosen great positions. I'm not changing my philosophy regarding when to buy or sell nor the # of positions I have (< 20) nor the fact that I don't keep much of a cash reserve. But I need to do a little better research into picking what positions to buy as well as improve my buy point understanding (I already knew this one). The research I did has provided decent results but I want better. I'll let you all know what I figure out.
I've been developing my plan and here's the thinking. I'm not expecting anyone to tell me what to do but feel free to find holes in my thinking. Note that I look for stuff with solid fundamentals and serious growth potential, indicated by median price targets in excess of 10 to 15% of current values. This plan gives me 5% dividends of about $175 month i think. I will have 13 positions in the new world nstead of 18 now but will still be diversified. Here is what I'm keeping and why. Arkk- just bought a few the other day and will grow to 6% of portfolio. Great blogger sentiment and the gal who runs it gets great reviews. Smart girl. Exposes me to different industries that might do well when other stuff isn't. Cssep - has grown 12 to 13% and I think there is more room to grow. Over 9% monthly dividend. 12.4% of portfolio. Preferred stock. Enb - in excess of 7% dividend which grows most every year. Stock has done well and has room for growth. 10.4% of portfolio Gof - has shown some growth and has 10% dividend. Will grow this to 6.2% of portfolio Abbv - volatile but has great growth potential and almost 5% dividend. 7.4% of portfolio. Trtn - has grown almost 10% since I bought 2 weeks ago but has minimal growth potential so may sell in near future to lock gains. Over 4% dividend and 2.4% of portfolio. Qqq - good growth track record and relieves me of the need to own Microsoft or Apple by themselves. Has a small dividend. Will grow to 10% of portfolio. What I am getting rid of Msft - covered by QQQ and has microscopic dividend Abt - small dividend, stagnant, and not great growth potential. Vv - somewhat duplicative of QQQ and therefor superfluous Vz - limited growth potential and likely covered by QQQ Lly - some growth potential but a little lower on dividends Bnl - mistaken purchase. Decent dividend but not great growth potential Gtn - more risky and less gain likely than intended replacement IWM Gdv - not performing all that great. No good reason to own it other than 5% dividend. Kmi - its doing ok and has great dividend. Don't want too much $ in one industry and ENB is a more stable company. Stz - has gone nowhere since I bought it several weeks ago. Dis - thought of keeping since it could grow once pandemic over and all parks fully reopen. Not great dividend. May reconsider or repurchase later. Intending to buy Jnpr - seems to have good growth potential and solid fundamentals and good dividend. Will be 7% of portfolio. Stag - wanted one REIT. Has good dividend and some growth potential. Will be 6.4% of portfolio Aep - utility with good dividend and growth potential. Will be 8% of portfolio. Iwm - small cap etf that has great growth potential but will likely be less risky than buying single small cap stocks. Been burned by single small cap stocks in the past. Kmb - what it sells will always likely sell. Has better dividend than PG. Will be 5% of portfolio. Nvax - its vaccine is being well received. Made money on it earlier and I think I will again. Will be 8% of portfolio.
It will likely take the week or even longer to reorient all this. I had some good faith violations so I can only buy with money that has settled. I intend to buy and sell in small chunks to be sure prices are good. Whatever hassle I experience will be worth it in the long run.
Not to throw water on your epiphany, but the highlighted conclusions are 180 degrees in opposition to what Richard Wyckoff taught. But ignore me, I'm just reminded how un-important D.I.Y. fundamental analysis is to the retail trader/investor....carry on.
Holding time has nothing to do with it. That is a common misconception. Wyckoff is about following the money, following the big boys, following what they are actually doing in the market, instead of trying to guess what they might do by trying to duplicate their fundamental analyses. Sorry, I shouldn't have said anything. I don't really have time for it, but I'll give a short discourse to explain my adopted epiphany: The big boys have to quietly acquire most of their position in trading ranges. They make the supply of stock scarce so that when they are done, any little demand trigger will cause price to rise (Econ 101: supply vs. demand). Once they are done accumulating, they pass the baton on to the funds and speculators (public) to mark up the price. If the big boys were accumulating, the price has a 99.99% chance of going up. The big boys know what news is coming or they'll create it. The public really doesn't care about the fundamentals so long as the price is being marked up. Oh sure they have their theories about why it is going up, but the reality is that the stock is in short supply and new buyers have to pay up if they want in.
Ah... wonder what WXYZ would say about this. My guess is he would say he doesn't care what the big boys do because he is planning on holding it for 30 years and the big boys will both buy, sell, long, and short the stock a bunch of times each in 30 years. But in that 30 year period he has probably gone up substantially. I might have to read Wyckoff.
YEAH....I have no opinion on buying or selling any of your particular stocks or potential stocks. But I do wonder about the following You appear to be interested in longer term investing. Yet you are comparing your return of your holdings to various averages over just....3 weeks.....extremely short term. Just seems like a contradiction to me......thinking of investing for the longer term yet judging your positions over an EXTREMELY short term...3 weeks. Now if you are intending to be a 1-3 week short term trader that is a different story. How are you determining....."serious growth potential"? That might be a good criteria to use.......but if how you are determining "serious growth potential" is flawed or not accurate....than the entire basis for what you are buying or selling is meaningless. So...how accurate is your measure of "serious growth potential" Same question with determining...."median price potential"......how.....and....how do you know that however you are measuring this is accurate or meaningful? As to Wyckoff I have no opinion.
Assume 2 possible position scenarios. The 1st is currently 10 with a low target of 12, a median of 15, and a high of 20. The 2nd is at 13 currently, a low of 10, a median of 15, and a high of 35. I never expect to reach the high so I ignore the high targets. The 1st target gets me a 20% gain if I reach the low and a 50% gain if I reach the median. I'll buy the 1st one. The 2nd has only a gain of 11 or 12% if I reach the median and the price is already above the low target. I would not buy the 2nd position. Does my approach make sense? Not that you think I'm right. You probably think I'm nuts. But do you understand what I mean? I am trying to think like a long term trader without being confined to only thinking that way. I want positions that I don't have to touch for a year or more but I try to find positions that will make me the most gains .I don't want to be making changes on a daily basis. I haven't the time. Guess I have an impasse
STZ started to drop again so I sold it. Also sold my ABT position which was stagnant although I did gain a little. I'm going to hold GDV and likely BNL through end of March so I can capitalize on the run-up that usually comes as the ex-dividend date gets near. LLY and MSFT down so holding on selling to see if they come back up a bit. Other stuff I intend to sell rising so I'm holding on these for the time being.
You ever feel like you are a cat chasing its tail? You seem to have a longterm vision with a shorterm mentality. Honestly I hope you do VERY WELL. Infact you may have better results if you quit chasing the market.
Thanks Rustic1 for the comment. I hope you do well too. I have a long term vision for sure but I think my mentality is more medium term (1 to 3 months) versus short term (a couple weeks). I tried a couple trades back in January like ACI where I bought shares because of a positive earnings surprise which ultimately bore no fruit so I sold a few days later. But those kind of short term things didn't pan out and I learned my lesson. Also I bought I few shares of AAL and SLV when reddit users said they were trying to create another Gamestop. I bought a few shares and lost a few hundred bucks so I won't do that again either. Lastly I don't have the time or real desire to learn all the charting that needs to be known to day trade or swing trade successfully. I know some charting skills would be useful so I am trying a bit there since it would likely improve my buy points. I've owned CSSEP since early December, KMI since early Jan, and ABBV since Sept (with some buys and sells along the way) so I think I have at least a willingness to hold when it seems smart to hold. Other positions that I gained and sold in December were bought back in September. I sold when I had substantial gains to lock in the profits and I wasn't convinced there was more growth room (been right aboiut that more than a few times). Am I chasing my tail? I don't feel that I am but maybe I'm too dumb to not recognize it. I gained over 5% so far YTD and 14% or so since Sept but I'm not satisfied with that. I'm not feeling bad about it but I want to see if I can do even better. Maybe I am chasing my tale.
I kind of agree with Rustic1. AND...I was thinking the same thing as tomB16 when I read that. Without commenting on your holdings or other specifics. I think you would benefit from doing some real thinking of what sort of investor you are trying to be......a short term trader? A medium term trader....3-12 months? A long term investor? Once you make that decision than....really educate yourself on what philosophy you wish to follow in that particular discipline.....including......evaluating the odds of success in any particular style of trading or investing. Read up on the basic investor behaviors that cause most investors to either FAIL or under-perform the markets. And see if any apply to what you are doing or not doing. That would be my suggestion.......look at the FOUNDATION of your investing concept.....of what you are trying to do and how. While doing that you can STILL be totally exposed to the markets by using Index funds like the SP500 or NASDAQ 100 if you wish. There are many ways to invest besides stock picking or trading. When the time comes I will have NO PROBLEM simply being an Index fund investor for the rest of my life. Simple, easy, and no time or work required.
Cretaceous, as that is the last part of the Mesozoic. Over 20 years investment horizon would be Jurassic.
