The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    AND in TYPICAL Elon Musk fashion:

    Elon Musk pays tribute to fallen Starship SN10
    The prototype exploded Wednesday shortly after landing

    https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/elon-musk-pays-tribute-to-fallen-starship-sn10

    "Billionaire Elon Musk acknowledged the fiery death of SpaceX's SN10 Starship prototype on Friday.

    "SN10 is in Valhalla now," he tweeted to his more than 48.5 million followers, alongside a video of the incident.

    In Norse mythology, Valhalla is the great hall where heroes who died nobly in battle are received.

    It was a running theme for Musk, tweeting just three minutes earlier: "Cybervikings of Mars."

    Vikings, sea-faring Scandinavian raiders also known as Norsemen, date back to the eighth century. Their age lasted for less than 300 years, but their lore has been passed down and exists in popular culture.

    In addition, Musk has big plans for a mission to the red planet and in December he said he remained “highly confident” SpaceX will land humans on Mars by 2026.

    The SN10 Starship is an important part of that journey, although Wednesday's explosion was not the first. The spacecraft did technically land "in one piece" during the high-altitude suborbital test before going exploding on the landing pad in Boca Chica, Texas.

    [​IMG]Video
    The Starship is also a crucial component of Musk's proposed private commercial space trip scheduled for 2023.

    The stainless Starship is 160 feet tall and has a 30-foot diameter. SpaceX says it can carry more than 100 metric tons into orbit.

    Representatives for the company have said Starship, like their go-to Falcon 9 rocket, could begin launching satellites to Earth orbit as soon as 2022, according to Space.com."
     
  2. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    I feel like a lot of the market has shifted to “trends”, what with spacs & meme stocks getting a lot of attention. THAT to me is drawing parallels to the dotcom era, more than nasdaq and tech companies getting to silly highs. If I was to predict that ANY crash would occur- it would be with the trend stocks, and since that is a very recent shift in investing- it will likely take time till that crash occurs. Probably years from now.
    I think that things will be quite volatile for a little while, but no HUGE correction will occur in the next several years, and that is actually not a good thing if you train yourself to pay attention to the markets on a regular basis. Emotions will run deep and foolishness will consume the weak prompting them to make rushed decisions.
    I will stay focused on my investments - the companies I picked as my winners- and add to them as I see fit. My intentions are to WIN with the most BY the most and of course I will never win them all, and hopefully not LOSE.
    Here are my companies:
    Long term portfolio-
    TSLA TWTR PYPL EBAY FB GOOG DIS M NKE AMZN CSCO VZ NFLX YUM NVDA TWLO UBER NEE ED NOW CRM ENPH
    Short term-
    RGEN ADI QCOM CRWD BLDP PLTR SPWR BNGO GEVO TLRY

    Thank you W for providing me and others with an outlet to share our opinion and portfolios.
    Happy investing!
     
  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I LOVE to see inflows into the markets.


    A new era of volatility begins, but equity inflows continue: BofA

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...tech-inflows-continue-bofa-idUSKBN2AX0U3?il=0

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "LONDON (Reuters) - Investors poured billions of dollars into high-flying stocks even as the ongoing bond market rout led to sharp losses on Wall Street and kicked off a “new era of volatility”, BofA said on Friday.

    Hovering close to 1.6%, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have risen close to 45 basis points in the last month, triggering a sell-off in equities, which have lost $4 trillion in market value since the mid-February peak.

    The investment bank, analysing flows on the back of EPFR data, said equity funds saw $22.2 billion of inflows, driven by $2.3 billion into tech and $2 billion into financials in the week to Wednesday.

    The bond market slump is yet to prompt a major change in positioning among investors, with a record 62.6% of BofA’s clients invested in stocks.

    A $29 trillion monetary and fiscal stimulus has led to an “addictive” Wall Street-Fed dependency culture, Michael Hartnett, the bank’s chief investment strategist said in the note to clients. Markets will now likely push the Fed via higher yields into a yield curve control (YCC) policy announcement, he added.

    U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s messaging on Thursday disappointed Wall Street as investors had built expectations he would act on the yield spike in U.S. 10-year Treasuries.

    Bonds yields surged and high-flying tech stocks slumped as Powell spoke at a Wall Street Journal forum.

    “The bond market threw another tantrum,” said Steen Jakobsen, chief investment officer at Saxo Bank.

    “The most intense bond and equity selling unfolded while he spoke (on Thursday), clearly indicating a tantrum-like demand for more reassurance from the Fed that it will not allow rates to continue higher.”

    A flood of money supply and ultra-low or negative interest rates have boosted world stocks, which have added close to $40 trillion from the bottom of coronavirus sell-off last year.

    Stocks have added about $6 billion per hour, since last March, almost 10 times faster than the pace seen in the immediate aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis, according to BofA.

    “We think the Fed will inevitably move to YCC,” Hartnett said, adding the U.S. dollar could rise before that, but any announcement of a switch to YCC would likely trigger the start of a great bear market in the greenback.

    The U.S. dollar index hit November highs on Friday. Still, investors were largely bearish with net $30 billion dollar short positions, a bit less than the $35 billion at the end of January - which was the most since 2011.

    The Fed’s policy-making committee convenes next on March 16-17."

    MY COMMENT

    That money FLOWING into stocks an funds is confirmation that over the medium to long term investors have NOWHERE ELSE to go except for stocks and funds. No matter what short term events happen or impact markets.....the money is going into stocks and funds at record rates. A very positive indicator for investors.
     
  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Happy Investing to you too Zukodany. You know the bottom line is.....we are now in a NORMAL market. Prices are going to jump all over the place short term just like they always do. It is an ABNORMAL market when prices just go up, up, up. Many investors today are young enough they have NEVER invested in a NORMAL market. Anyone that started investing in 2009 has ONLY invested during one of the greatest BULL MARKETS in history......than the pandemic, also highly abnormal.....and now another record BULL MARKET recovery from the forced closure.
     
  5. gtrudeau88

    gtrudeau88 Well-Known Member

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    Just curious WXYZ. I know you wouldn't invest in the same as me and that's ok but do you consider me over-diversified, ok, or under-diversified? What constitutes a good balance of things? I've tried not to allow a single company > 15% of portfolio or a single sector > 20%. I may not be within guidelines on the per sector.

    Stocks

    ABBV - biotech
    CSSEP - telecomm
    DIS - telecomm/theme parks
    ENB - oil/gas
    GTN - telecomm
    KMI - oil/gas
    NVAX - biotech
    QTA-A - REIT
    TRTN - Shipping containers

    Closed-end fund

    GOF - bonds, loans, equities, and lots of other stuff

    Etf

    IWM - Russell 2000 index
    VV - Vanguard large cap
     
    #4245 gtrudeau88, Mar 6, 2021
    Last edited: Mar 6, 2021
  6. roadtonowhere08

    roadtonowhere08 Well-Known Member

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    Exactly. Money has nowhere else to go... unless it likes lower capital appreciation:biggrin:
     
  7. gtrudeau88

    gtrudeau88 Well-Known Member

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    Hope our thread doesn't get to boring without you know who. All we'll be talking is long term investment strategy with the occasional medium term strategy heresy spouted by me.

    Here's to peace and quiet.:)
     
  8. roadtonowhere08

    roadtonowhere08 Well-Known Member

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    I'll take boring over insults any day.
     
  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Gtrudeau88.

    I dont really follow any of your holdings so I dont really have any comment on specifics. You have raised a topic that could cover books and books of opinion.......portfolio construction....diversification.....allocation, etc.

    Just looking at your numbers above. It looks pretty balanced....you have small cap in the Russell and big cap in the Vanguard fund. You have some money in bonds, and other stuff in GOF. And than you have your individual stocks.

    No one can really tell you what is right for you......there is not magic formula or right or wrong. It is all about what you want to try to achieve and what you are ACTUALLY achieving......if you are reaching your goals. Once you have your investments in place it is all about performance. I would not get too caught up in criteria or measures of what is right or wrong.....if you are achieving your goals.

    I would start with my most basic goals if I was putting a portfolio together........am I looking for safety, what degree of risk am I willing to take, how aggressive am I. Am I looking for income, capital gains, dividends, growth, etc. Am I looking for short, medium, long term results. What is my time frame.....3 years.....30 years...or anywhere in between. How much risk can I take with the money....is it critical money...is it mad money not needed....is it retirement money, etc. What is the most simple way to achieve my goals and criteria? For example....if I had a certain set of goals and criteria.....a plan as simple as just investing everything in the SP500 might cover what I was trying to do. How often will I be adding funds...regularly, once in a while, every month, etc.

    Anyway you get the idea.....I would let my goals and requirements CONTROL what I was including in my portfolio and in what percentages. For any holding I would ask myself....does this holding contribute to my goal.....for example.....if I was intending to be a dividend investor....I would NOT want a bunch of stocks that did not pay a dividend. Anyway that is the general process I would follow. Every investor is going to be different in what is right for them.
     
  10. gtrudeau88

    gtrudeau88 Well-Known Member

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    Thanks. I like what I've got.
     
  11. oldmanram

    oldmanram Well-Known Member

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    Some good reading above , by all of you, anybody want to buy a couple apartment buildings in Seattle ? That kind of came from left field, unless you have been working in one of the bathrooms for the last 4 days, replacing sub flooring , and tile , and fixing the plumbing that goes to the toilet.
    I'm too old for this sh*t . literally
    Was contemplating Monday moves , with the short term part of the portfolio
    I have lost interest in DLR , thinking of taking the short term loss , it should have gone through the roof with covid , but DN 17% since I picked it up.
    and sell CNRG (clean energy etf) UP 60% since I bot in Sept , The two should cancel each out as far as cap gains. Then take the cash and add to my position in something conservative like QQQ . Anybody ? :banana:
    OK OK
    VV
    VOO
    or VOOG
    I'm going to bed
     
  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Well gtrudeau88.....there is the answer to your question.....you like what you have. That is about it.....if you like what you have as an investor...that is all you need.
     
  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    That QQQ sounds like a plan oldmanram. It never bothers me to sell something......even at a loss. I always consider it a lateral move.....from one stock market holding into another one. AND....as you said....you get to offset some of the gains with the loss.

    Do you do most of your own maintenance work or do you ever hire it out? If I was an apartment owner I would just hire it out....I dont have very good skills with construction. Is the savings worth the time and effort on your part as the owner? I could see where some people like to do that sort of hand on stuff. BUT.....I dont think I would be cut out to be an apartment owner.....I would have to hire a property manager.
     
  14. gtrudeau88

    gtrudeau88 Well-Known Member

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    I had qqq and dumped it recently for a small loss. I dont understand why bond rate rises have anything to do with tech stock drops but there does appear to be a correlation. I'm a medium term investor so qqq won't work for me right now. Long term is another story. Qqq is good exposure to solid tech companies
     
  15. gtrudeau88

    gtrudeau88 Well-Known Member

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    Yup. On page 212 of this forum it says at the bottom "5 hidden conversations" with a link to unhide them. Don't click it!

    I'm enjoying the forum again.
     
  16. gtrudeau88

    gtrudeau88 Well-Known Member

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    Hey WXYZ,
    You've stated that stats back up long term investing as providing the best returns over time. What have you personally averaged in returns over say the last 20 years? Would you go back in time and change anything in your investing decisions if you could?
     
  17. Rustic1

    Rustic1 Well-Known Member

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    If you have cash on the side now could be a good time to add on the recent selloff, some have knocked out MONTHS of the recent gains. Depending on your investment horizon, others may decide to wait awhile longer.
    I'm a firm believer in observing the overall metrics of the markets, currently I along with many others are watching the YIELD CURVE.
    I may snipe a reload of a couple positions that I was able to observe and liquidate t hat recently took a hard hit.

    Regardless of your goals, it pays to follow the trend. Happy hunting. :D


    Screenshot_20210307-063307_Chrome.jpg
     
  18. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    The market has been selling off pretty aggressively the past 2-3 weeks... but don’t be fooled.. it could sell more.. a lot more!
    The only thing it needs is another Powellism, or an Ackman rant and it will TANK.
    I wouldn’t do ANYTHING now. And I’ve lost ALOT in the past 2 weeks. But I’ve lost ALOT MORE last year... Actually last year I was in the red and watching some of my positions go down by up to 50% my portfolio is still solidly green since I started 2 years ago... but that doesn’t matter... there is NO rotation to value happening, there are no SHIFTS in markets happening, it’s all volatility based on THE UNKNOWN, at the very best - based on the treasury and interest rates- it has NOTHING TO DO with certain branches of the market- just SPEC TALK and likely SHORT TALK
     
  19. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    zukodany likes this.
  20. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Well gtrudeau88.....I am guessing 14.5% to 16%.....is where I always seemed to be before I stopped keeping data. With money coming in and money going out over the years.....buying houses, art, etc, etc.....I stopped keeping that sort of data about 2006 or so. Up till than it was in that range long term. Now I tend to think in terms of how quickly I am doubling my money.....it usually averages every 5-6 years.....perhaps sooner in a booming time period.
     

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