I'm starting to worry about this one. There are so many EV articles coming out there daily or weekly from other companies... today I saw VW increasing their battery usage. Ford wants an all EV fleet by 2030 I believe? Saw something about Toyota EV the other day... TSLA dominated by being first to market and I do believe their brand allegiance will be strong like Apple (it's uppity and trendy), but they'll be competing in a different marketplace than they ever had before. I wouldn't be surprised if it corrected down much lower in 2021 at some point maybe even $400 before finally channeling or getting an upward bounce. But, ultimately I will continue to observe from the sidelines. I don't feel passionate about either direction and not risking money either way.
Great point. Some assume they are just a car company losing market share daily to the competition. If we dig deeper we learn they have many tools in the box.
Great thoughts, jonebone. VW is surging on their SSB and electrification announcements. People are swooning but I would like to suggest the public is about as intelligent as a box of rocks. Consider this: - The first 40GWh battery plant will be in operation by 2023 but will not reach the 40GWh design capacity for years after. - At 80KWh per car, that 40GWh plant will be able to supply 500K cars. Six of those plants will be able to supply enough cells to make 3M cars by 2030. Tesla is ramping a 10GWh prototype plant across the road from Fremont. 240GWh of battery capacity is not world beating capacity and it also isn't a sure bet they will achieve that capacity. Panasonic struggled to meet the 35GWh target for two years, when they first started manufacturing at Giga Nevada. Keep in mind, Panasonic was the most advanced lithium battery company in the world, at that time. Consider this: VW mentioned 30% higher energy density and 13 minutes to charge to 80% but 30% compared to what? Tesla will increase energy density by almost 20% by simply moving to 4680 cells and they have chemistry and electrode enhancements that will also bring increased energy density. Further, the tabless cell design will significantly reduce internal resistance so I expect they will achieve 13 minute charging to 80% capability on the first Cyber Truck that rolls off the line. At least, in theory. A SuperCharger v3 will not be able to charge a Cyber Truck in 13 minutes, as it just doesn't have the capacity. Keep in mind, SuperCharger v3 can go beyond 250KWh so Tesla may unlock additional SC capacity with software, once they have vehicles that can take that much current. Perhaps we will find out how good SCv3 is before the end of 2021. Gotta say, I don't see any Tesla beaters out there. Competition does dilute Tesla's dominance, though.
Their 10yr head start is definitely going to keep their stock inflated for some time to come, but there are definitely some advantages the other EV car makers have, like existing dealerships that offer some perks for service such as free oil changes
Free tuneups also. ELON is light-years ahead of the grind. Anyone notice the latest filing aimed at the SEC. The new job titles are a slap in their face. the BTC on the balance sheet is doing great. This is my favorite of all time.
That's my point entirely. Look at what happened to Gopro stock or Fitbit (no longer traded after Google purchased). Those were easily mimicable technologies that benefited from first to market, stock went real high speculatively and then absolutely crashed and tanked. EV is not easily mimicable but big auto giants do spend their multimillions in engineering research before rolling stuff out. That money has been spent. I don't think TSLA will absolutely crash and tank but it's important to at least understand that analogy if you're really going long on them. Point being, TSLA was synonymous with EV for the past decade. 10 years from now they won't be. Sure they can always be a market leader (as Apple and Samsung are in smartphone), and you can argue the EV pie will increase (a smaller slice of a bigger pie may still have more area), but they absolutely will face competition where they hadn't before. And to summarize, lots of casuals in the market. Ones who invest based on the trend and market sentiment. Market sentiment has been Tesla = EV for quite awhile. Sure, techies and fundamentalist like yourself may know all of the intimate details about why Tesla is superior but casuals don't. When you start seeing all of these other EV headlines elsewhere it at least makes a casual like me take some caution. I'm an option novice but I may look into a straddle if it gets in the $550 range again. I'm not sure which way it would go but I'd fairly confident it wont trend there. Seems like money could be made even if you can't pick the direction.
Yeah I like some humor, but Elon has said things which made TSLA drop in the past, which was meant to be funny. It sure isnt funny to option traders who get caught on the wrong side of his joke. He doesnt care if TSLA is at $500 or $1000, he is so deep ITM its all just fun and games at this point.
My biggest concern for TSLA isn't necessarily stock valuation, it's Elon becoming more and more full of himself and think he's so "untouchable" that he starts to make poor business decisions just to prove points to the haters or show that he's smarter than everyone else. I could be wrong, but my favorite words for him now are "becoming increasingly unhinged". I still wouldn't bet against the guy... yet...
I believe his team has enough control over the daily operations, he is just the figurehead for the company at this point. The board will reign him in when he drifts too far off base.
Oddly, I think both you and T0rm3nted are correct in your assessment of Elon. He has clearly become less table as T0rm3nted points out, however, even in his diminished emotional state, he can still toy with just about anyone. If Elon can't out smart someone and make them look like a fool at their own game, he can out lawyer them with his infinite barrel of money. Personally, he is bulletproof. The danger is that he will turn off potential customers but his fan base is a cult so I'm not sure there's much problem there, either. So, I guess we can just enjoy the ride.
To the competition. Its welcome. The top engineers in the world work at tsla, and up and coming brightest minds seek employment at tsla. Competition is playing catchup to tsla tech, using their tech. Competition will charge on tsla networks. Ev penetration, total market, compared to gas is what? 10% being generous? 2% last i checked. IF the market penetrates tsla’s apple like, lead, they will be tapping into an available 98% of total vehicles. While tsla cant meet the demand for the 2% of ev vs ice, as it is. Tsla could go to $400. I didnt think it would see $600 again when it was at $840. but if the market penetrates teslas ev dominance, it still wont stop them from pumping out revolving monthly income producing fsd equipped vehicles at full capacity for yrs to come.... loosely quoted from elon, if competition puts tsla out of business, then tsla met its goal. thats my .02
People cheered when VW announced six battery plants but how are those builds going to go when gas sales flag and will they have demand to for every cell? They are presuming a huge demand. I'm skeptical of their demand but not as skeptical as I was of Tesla. I never dreamed Tesla would dominate like this. It's real hard to get into a market against a monolith like Tesla, particularly when you're trying to build out battery and manufacturing plants the way VW is. I predict they will be money limited, in the next three years. They may get there but they won't breeze through their build funding like Tesla. For what it's worth, I love what I've seen of VW EVs. To be honest, I like their designs more than Tesla but it's 2021 and they are still talking about what they are going to do tomorrow. They need to show us something today because their time to jump off the ICE burning ship is running out. I'm not saying ICE sales are going to stop, however, when sales start to contract the profit evaporates real quick. It's tough as hell to make money in a shrinking market. Throw in the load of building out factories and they have a tough road ahead.
I would say ELON is where he wants to be, the team is assembled, the machine is well oiled. The competition is miles behind and being forced to spend billions playing the catch up game. That in itself was part of the overall plan, they fully understood they would have competition and the goal was to bring a stronger interest into the EV revolution. Most fail to understand Tesla is more than a car company. The board is well structured for the intended reason. The man spent years investing his blood,sweat and tears into his vision while the world slapped him in the face. He took it with stride and refused to concede. Its foolish to assume he is simply a figurehead, again, that was part of the plan. Point blank the man is a genius and this is simply a well engineered chess move. The 420 tweet was amusing, the funding secured was the ace in the hole for the SEC. Ultimately they paid the paltry fine and the rest is history. Again, he enjoys playing with them and the shorts like strings on a banjo, it it offends people then they should stay away from TSLA. The smarter ones fully realize, this is more than a car company and the creator has balls of steel and is now in a position where he can tell people to kiss his a$$, funny thing is there is nothing the can be done about it, other than a paltry fine. The rest is history. STARMAN says hello to all you earthlings.
I agree. I own some Tesla in a few funds here and there, but I find the man himself to be insufferable.
