The downward channel (red lines) from 61k works as support and resistance pretty well right now. The blue line is the medium-term support from late January. Doesn't seem to hold... a lower channel break wouldn't surprise me at this point. BTC has had a great run.
This will look like madness right now but how would you guys short BTC? Sell Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC)?
There are plenty of defi ways to short 2x, 3x or more btc Dangerous stuff when you are on the wrong side!
I guess, this is what institutional backing looks like? The price shot right back through the medium-support (blue trendline in the chart above) and to the upper channel line. Let's see if it holds as resistance for now or we're back to going up.
I would not look that deeply into lines on a chart. The big institutions are not looking at technicals to plan their trades, they start hedgefunds, ETFs and invest in exchanges to make money from the spreads. Bitcoin has seen plenty of big drops in the past, the reason why so many are willing to hold -20% to -40% drops is because in the past it has always bounced back and gone to new highs. Its probably important to note that there will be a peak at one point, we just can tell if thats now, or in 10yrs after it hits $300k.
This is all going according to the chart at the moment. Went back to the upper channel line, dropped from there and broke the lower channel line in the process, which seems to act as resistance now. I added another red parallel line at the bottom. This might be tested first, around 50.5k. The only major support left, I could identify, is the big blue line I drew back to mid-December. If the price breaks under that 49.5-50k support, there is probably not much support until the horizontal support at 45k (then 40k and 32k). This was a super interesting note, thanks. I was looking at it too much from the perspective of a trader. Still, I would think if they add crypto to their balance sheets like Tesla did, they will have some trader or at least technical guy sitting there opening the positions. Especially because the positions will be so large that they can't just use one order. And then they will use technicals, won't they? I've never worked on Wall Street, so I'm guessing. Another thing about shorting BTC. If I do it through selling short a stock, I'm restricted to trading hours. Which might suck if something happens on the weekend, for example.
This post is well worth paying attention to. Not only for BTC but the entire market abroad. Take note and make a post it for your wall. It tells a very true story that some refuse to believe. Although I am a BTC bull, it makes a great point.
I disagree. The price of BTC is irrelevant unless for some reason you have it in your head that you need to own a full coin and you dont have $55k lying around. The only time the term "expensive" should be used is in term of market cap. If anybody feels that $1T in market cap is unjustified and unsustainable, then there is a debate that can be had. Im not pointing at Bigpear, but I am saying that way too many people ignore market cap and look only at price, which is obviously wrong.
Very true. Both sides should always be considered. The very same debate can be said about TSLA, for years the non believers laughed and turned away. Now the joke is on them. BTC has followed the same path, with the naysayers chirping like birds while it continues to prove them wrong. I'm on the bullish side with a tad over 2 coins, although there is downside risk involved, I can afford to ride the duration. I dont imply anyone buy at any level, as we all must make our own decisions. I always welcome both sides of the debate.
There are not many good RSI oversold signals during a huge uptrend, but the 4hr chart does give one every so often. We are coming up on a short term oversold RSI signal now:
With approx 6 Billion in option expiry coming in we may see some downward pressure. Time will tell. More and more are widely accepting the fact that BTC is here to stay and my guess any dips will quickly be absorbed. I remain bullish and until I can be proven otherwise I will keep my tulip bulb garden watered and healthy with sunshine. To date the doubters have simply made fools of themselves and I simply look forward to anyone that can prove my stance otherwise.
While I do not feel the exuberance has been deflated, the downtrend has certainly wiped a lot of of the over-hedged longs at this point.
Same can be said in the markets, look at these new buyers that are already upside down in the last few months. I really feel bad for the ones that are taught the "fully invested" mentality. You always bring up a good point though. Important to see all angles.
