Semiconductors are strong today. Etf SMH is up 1.2% and I'm assuming/hoping that the semiconductor shortage reported in the media is at least somewhat genuine because if it is, the companies should have stable earnings for the balance of 2021. Moreover, many of the big semiconductor makers like Taiwan Semiconductor have announced plans to expand capacity by quite a bit over the next couple years. I would think this would look good in terms of continued earnings growth.
The shortage is definitely genuine because its near to impossible to find any kind of GPU these days. Its more than just crypto miners buying the stock.
We ARE going to see HISTORIC earnings over the next weeks. Does this translate into immediate gains for stocks and funds....perhaps. The short term will be DOMINATED by....news items on taxes.......and....various PSYCHOLOGICAL factors. BUT....at this point for the longer term......what is the alternative to stocks and funds.....nothing. Pump it Up: Earnings Season Starts Off Strong https://www.schwab.com/resource-cen...-earnings-season-starts-off-strong?cmp=em-QYC (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points With less than 10% of the S&P 500 having reported, results are strong and have boosted the blended consensus for first quarter year-over-year earnings growth from 25% to nearly 31%. Both the beat rate, and the percent by which companies have been beating estimates, are well above historical norms. The denominator effect of improving earnings (E) is helping ease some valuation concerns; but overall, the market remains historically expensive. Although it’s early in the first quarter earnings reporting season, it’s worth a look at the progress so far and the implications for the rest of the season, as well as valuations. Less than 10% of S&P 500 companies have reported; but to sum it up, so far so very good. Based on Refinitiv data, the year-over-year “blended” earnings growth estimate (combining actual reports to date with consensus estimates) has jumped to nearly 31%. If it remains at that level, it would be the highest quarterly growth rate since the fourth quarter of 2010. In aggregate, companies have reported earnings 30.8% above expectations; compared to a long-term (since 1994) average of 3.5% above estimates and average of 15.2% for the past four quarters. The percent of companies reporting better-than-expected earnings (“beat rate”) is 85%; with only 13% having reported weaker-than-expected earnings (“miss rate”). That compares to an average beat rate of 65% and miss rate of 20% since 1994; and an average beat rate of 78% and miss rate of 19% over the past four quarters. Jump The table below highlights the blended earnings growth rates for the S&P 500 overall; as well as each of the 11 sectors. Prior to reporting season getting underway, the first quarter growth estimate for the S&P 500 was 25%; which as noted has already jumped to nearly 31% thanks to the strength of the season so far. Topping the rankings in terms of growth rate for the quarter is the Financials sector—with a whopping 116% growth expected—followed by Consumer Discretionary. Looking ahead to next quarter, we can see that the traditionally most-cyclical sectors—notably Industrials and Energy—join Consumer Discretionary with eye-popping growth rates of more than 500% in the case of Industrials; and more than 200% in the case of Consumer Discretionary and Energy. These exceptionally strong gains are courtesy of “base effects” and the math associated with year-over-year comparisons relative to the second quarter of 2020; when much of the global economy was in lock-down. Source: Charles Schwab, I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv, as of 4/19/2021. Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. You can see the trajectory of earnings back to 2015 in the chart below. After a four quarter “earnings recession” from mid-2015 to mid-2016 driven by a collapse in oil prices and its impact on the Energy sector, earnings rebounded sharply. Although the overall U.S. economy did not roll into its COVID recession until February 2020; as you can see, S&P 500 earnings actually peaked well before that in 2018’s third quarter. The dotted bars show the aforementioned acceleration unfolding this quarter. Earnings Growth Set to Ramp Source: Charles Schwab, I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv, as of 4/19/2021. Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data. As mentioned, coming into first quarter earnings season, estimates were for 25% S&P 500 growth; but estimate revisions have been decidedly on the upside. The table below shows the roster of revisions underway since mid-March. In general, there has been an upward trend in the percentage of upward revisions vs. downward revisions; with the latest ratio at two-thirds up and one-third down. The bar chart below the table breaks down the S&P 500 by sector, with the blue bars representing upward revisions, and the orange bars representing downward revisions. In keeping with the lofty growth expectations of the Financial sector, it is dominated by upward revisions—although just shy of the Technology’s best ratio of up-to-down revisions. Source: Charles Schwab, I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv, as of 4/16/2021. Tech and Financials on Top re: Revisions Source: Charles Schwab, I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv, as of 4/16/2021. What does this mean for valuations? Last year was defined by a surge in multiples thanks to the strength in stock prices alongside the plunge in earnings. Although last year’s pandemic-related decline in the denominator (E) was epic relative to history, what is in keeping with history is the tendency for multiples to rise in the first year of a recovery as stocks price in the coming improvement to earnings. As shown below, toward the end of last year, the forward P/E for the S&P 500 had surged to 27. Given that was directly in line with multiples in the late-1990s into the March 2000 market peak; valuation concerns were rampant as we entered 2021. However, unlike the late-1990s—when earnings were rising toward a peak—the surge in the P/E recently was driven by the plunge in earnings. Recently though, thanks to the epic surge in earnings coming from the lows of last year, the forward P/E quickly reset to 22 (before bouncing to 23). That is by no means cheap; but highlights the power of the denominator in the current environment—distinctly different than what occurred in 2000. As you can also see, assuming no change in the price of the S&P 500 (I know, unlikely), the expected progression of earnings would bring with it a further decline in the forward P/E to less than 20. Thank You E Source: Charles Schwab, Bloomberg, as of 4/16/2021. For illustrative purposes only. Regardless of whether the forward P/E is cheap, expensive or something in between; it’s always important to remind investors that valuation is not an effective market timing tool. Markets can become expensive and stay expensive for some time, without a deleterious impact on stock prices—especially when investor sentiment and momentum are dominant drivers, as is the case today. As shown in the scattergram below; although there is a negative correlation between the forward P/E and subsequent one-year S&P 500 performance (i.e., higher P/Es have been followed by weaker stock market returns), it’s a very slight negative. In fact, even with a quick glance at the scattergram, you can see that the “exceptions” to the yellow correlation trend line are far and wide. Don’t Use P/Es to Time Market Source: Charles Schwab, Bloomberg, 1958-3/31/2021. Correlation is a statistical measure of how two investments have historically moved in relation to each other, and ranges from -1 to +1. A correlation of 1 indicates a perfect positive correlation, while a correlation of -1 indicates a perfect negative correlation. A correlation of zero means the assets are not correlated. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Forward P/Es are, of course, among many valuation metrics that investors tend to track. In the “heat map” below, you can see that although the forward P/E has retreated, it remains well in the red zone in terms of historical percentiles. Most other P/E valuation metrics are also well into the red zone; as well as price/book, Tobin’s Q (market value/assets’ replacement cost), and market cap/GDP (“Buffett Model”). Still in the green, however, are the yield-based valuation metrics of equity risk premiums and the Fed Model. Source: Charles Schwab, Bloomberg, The Leuthold Group. Forward P/E, price/book, price/cash flow, rule of 20 and equity risk premiums as of 1990-4/16/2021. Trailing and normalized P/E as of 1960-4/16/2021. Dividend yield as of 1928-4/16/2021. CAPE as of 1900-4/16/2021. Fed model as of 1965-/4/16/2021. Tobin's Q as 1950-4/16/2021. Market cap/GDP as of 1952-4/16/2021. Percentile ranking is shown from lowest in green to highest in red. A higher percentage indicates a higher rank/valuation relative to history. In sum The surge in earnings is providing a fundamental factor for bulls to cheer; while also serving as a catalyst for some easing in valuation concerns. As we saw earlier this year though, any acceleration in Treasury yields could put renewed pressure on higher-multiple segments of the stock market. In addition, as shown above, earnings growth is likely to peak in the second quarter; which is likely to correspond to the peak in the annualized quarter-over-quarter growth rate in real gross domestic product (GDP). Rich valuations coupled with stretched investor sentiment conditions suggest risk is high for a pullback or correction, and spikes in volatility. For now, market breadth remains healthy (more so for the S&P 500 than the NASDAQ or Russell 2000)—which has historically been a positive offset to stretched valuations/sentiment. This is a market environment that has started to reward strong fundamentals again, after a period dominated by lower-quality factors earlier this year. In fact, profitability was the leading performance factor last week, while accelerating sales is the best performing factor over the past month. A fundamentals-driven market is easier to navigate than a speculative low quality factors-driven market. Nonetheless, discipline around risk mitigation is essential; including diversification across and within asset classes, and periodic rebalancing. MY COMMENT We ARE going to be in a definite FUNDAMENTAL DRIVEN market for at least the next couple of years. With the re-opening having a long way to go....there will be MUCH room to run for stocks and funds. In the end....and in hindsight....it will be the era of the regular investor. Longer term, fundamental based, iconic company, investing will pay off nicely.
I assumed it must be at somewhat genuine given that most auto companies have shuttered production at some plants due to the chip shortages.
I agree StockJock-e and "G". This shortage will be a good driver of rebuilding of the chip industry. There will be good incentive to ramp up facilities and development. AND....hopefully....move the business forward with a period of BIG INNOVATION and competition driving the chip companies. Innovation in the chip business WILL trickle down into the entire economy with EVERYTHING......since EVERYTHING is oriented to tech advancements..... now and into the future.
Consistently flipping between gains of .63 and .93, driven by the price of CSSEP. The number of shares bought/sold is always very small and it seems therefor to be more volatile than many other stocks. Overall though a great day.
Nasdaq at an all new high I’m at an all new high 2 months ago everyone was selling and losing it lmao people... just have a coke and a smile and ctfo already
NEVER......a bad thing to start the new week with a nice green day. Only two positions down today......SNOW and PG. AND.....a good beat of the SP500 by .14%. Looks like the SP500 is at.....yet another......new all time high.
Here we go....hot off the press......the TESLA EARNINGS. Tesla (TSLA) Q1 2021 earnings results: $10.39B in revenue, beats with $0.93 EPS https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-q1-2021-earnings-results/ (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) first-quarter for 2021 saw the electric car maker post $10.389 billion in revenue. The results, which were discussed in an Update Letter, were released after the closing bell on Monday, April 26, 2021. Tesla’s first quarter was impressive, with the electric car maker producing a total of 180,338 vehicles, an astounding number considering that Q1 is typically a soft quarter for car sales. The company also delivered 184,800 vehicles comprised of 182,780 Model 3 and Model Y, as well as 2,020 Model S and Model X. Tesla’s strong Q1 results were due in part to the accelerating Model Y ramp in the United States and the production push for the Model 3 and Model Y in Gigafactory Shanghai. This allowed the company to achieve impressive figures despite the halt in the production of the refresh Model S and Model X. The following are the key points in Tesla’s Q1 2021 Update Letter. REVENUE Tesla reported a revenue of $10.389 billion for the first quarter. In comparison, Wall Street expected Tesla’s Q1 2021 revenue to be at $10.29 billion. EARNINGS Tesla shareholders saw non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.93 in the first quarter. Wall Street, on the other hand, expected Tesla to report a gain of $0.79 per share. PROFITABILITY Tesla has posted a $594 million GAAP operating income, and $438 million GAAP net income." MY COMMENT I will be interested to see analysis and commentary. Looks like great numbers to me.
HERE is another take on TESLA: Tesla posts Q1 earnings that top estimates, doubles down on eventual 50% annual deliveries growth target https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-reports-q1-2021-earnings-results-124505076.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Tesla (TSLA) posted first-quarter profit that handily exceeded estimates, with the results dovetailing the record deliveries the electric vehicle-maker reported during the first three months of 2021. However, first-quarter revenue came up slightly short of expectations, and shares dipped by about 1% in late trading. Here were the main results From Tesla's report on Monday, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg: Q1 Revenue: $10.39 billion vs. $10.42 billion expected and $5.99 billion Y/Y Q1 Adjusted earnings per share: 93 cents vs. 80 cents expected and 23 cents Y/Y Earlier in April, Tesla reported first-quarter vehicle deliveries that set a record at 184,800, with the vast majority comprised of the more affordable Models 3 and Y. The record number of hand-overs came even as Tesla and the broader auto industry contended with a protracted semiconductor shortage, and ongoing disruptions stemming from COVID-19. The results boded well for the electric vehicle-maker's first-quarter operating results, which saw the company post yet another quarterly profit. Automotive gross margins unexpectedly expanded by more than 1 percentage point to 26.5%, with cost-cutting helping expand profitability even as sales of Tesla's lower-priced models strongly outpaced those of its higher-margin Model S and X vehicles. In its letter to shareholders Monday, Tesla said it still plans to achieve 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries over a multi-year horizon, reiterating the target CEO Elon Musk floated on the company's January earnings call. Last year, Tesla delivered just under half a million vehicles, coming up just short of Wall Street's estimates at the time. "In some years we may grow faster, which we expect to be the case in 2021," Tesla said. "The rate of growth will depend on our equipment capacity, operational efficiency and capacity and stability of the supply chain." The ramp-up of production at Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory, which began delivering vehicles to customers in China in January last year, and its forthcoming facilities in Berlin and Texas are set to help achieve this goal. Both in-progress Gigafactories in Berlin and Texas are on track to begin production and deliveries this year, Tesla said Monday, and Tesla Semi deliveries will also begin later in 2021. To date, many analysts on Wall Street have viewed demand out of China as a key force behind the company's winning streak. The company does not break out deliveries or sales by geography, but Wedbush analyst Dan Ives has suggested China could comprise some 40% of Tesla's total global deliveries as soon as next year. In spite of stiffening competition from the likes of General Motors (GM) and Nio (NIO), "Tesla continues to see growing pent-up demand throughout China and Europe, with the U.S. on the verge of seeing a further inflection in demand in our opinion once the EV tax credit ceiling is lifted," Ives wrote in a note published ahead of earnings results. He cited the beneficial impact of the Biden administration's incentives as "green tidal wave" that may boost Tesla. "While Tesla has navigated a myriad of Chinese government PR issues, chip shortages, and a further spotlight on its auto pilot safety record (given the Texas crash) over the past month, the Street is now laser focused on gauging the annual delivery trajectory for 2021 heading into next week's main event which we expect to drive the stock much higher over the coming months," he added. The role of cryptocurrency in Tesla's future strategy was also set to be a focal point in Monday's earnings results. The company disclosed in February that it purchased $1.5 billion worth of bitcoin, and began accepting the cryptocurrency as a method of payment for its vehicles in late March. Quarter-end cash and cash equivalents declined by $2.2 billion to $17.1 billion, "driven mainly by a net cash outflow of $1.2 billion in cryptocurrency purchases," Tesla said in its shareholder update. Sale of bitcoin generated a $101 million positive impact to quarterly results, it added. Shares of Tesla have risen about 4% for the year-to-date through Friday's close, underperforming against the S&P 500's 11% rise over that time period. MY COMMENT Interesting that the article above and this article use different numbers for the "revenue" expectation. So one shows a revenue BEAT and the other a revenue MISS. REGARDLESS.......the future is very bright....the Texas and Berlin plants will be online this year....we should see some BIG numbers as those two plants ramp up production.
I wanted to see if another good source was reporting a revenue MISS.......NO they are not. Tesla posts record net income of $438 million, revenue surges by 74% https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/26/tesla-tsla-earnings-q1-2021-.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points Tesla reported record net income of $438 million during the quarter, as well as earnings of 93 cents per share on $10.39 billion in revenue. In its earnings release, the company said it has weathered chip shortages that have plagued the auto industry, in part, by “pivoting extremely quickly to new microcontrollers, while simultaneously developing firmware for new chips made by new suppliers.” Tesla reported first-quarter results after the bell on Monday. The company beat expectations handily, but the stock dipped more than 3% after hours as investors digested the numbers. Here’s how the company fared in the quarter, compared to analyst estimates compiled by Refinitiv: Earnings: 93 cents per share vs. 79 cents per share expected Revenue: $10.39 billion vs. $10.29 billion expected, up 74% from a year ago Net profit reached a quarterly record of $438 million (on a GAAP basis), and the company recorded $518 million in revenue from sales of regulatory credits during the period. Elon Musk’s electric vehicle business reported in the first-quarter vehicle deliveries of 184,800 Model 3 and Model Y cars, beating expectations and setting a record for Tesla. However, the company also said it produced none of its higher-end Model S sedans or Model X SUVs for the period ending March. (It delivered2,020 older Model S sedans and Model X SUVs from inventory.) The company said it expects more than 50% vehicle delivery growth in 2021, which implies minimum deliveries of 750,000 vehicles this year. The fact the company grew vehicle unit sales by more than 100% year over year but only grew service centers by 28% and its mobile service fleet by 22% explains why some Tesla customers face frustratingly long wait times for repairs. Service expansion is not keeping pace with the volume of vehicles sold. Tesla said it has weathered chip shortages that have plagued the auto industry, in part, by “pivoting extremely quickly to new microcontrollers, while simultaneously developing firmware for new chips made by new suppliers.” It did not disclose the names of its new suppliers. It also reiterated CEO Elon Musk’s frequent claim that cameras, not radar, are a better path toward autonomous vehicles. “Our AI-based software architecture has been increasingly reliant on cameras, to the point where radar is becoming unnecessary earlier than expected. As a result, our FSD team is fully focused on evolving to a vision-based autonomous system and we are nearly ready to switch the US market to Tesla Vision,” the company said in in its earnings release. The company revealed in February it purchased $1.5 billion in bitcoin and would potentially invest in other cryptocurrencies in the future. By April, bitcoin rose to record levels before pulling back. In the earnings release, the company said it recorded a net cash outflow of $1.2 billion related to bitcoin during the quarter. Tesla said last month that Jerome Guillen, its former president of automotive, would be moving into the role of president of heavy trucking. It’s not clear who — if anyone — has replaced Guillen, but personnel updates could come during the earnings call after the bell." MY COMMENT In line with the first article that I posted. Of course.....down in after hours trading....typical.
Ended up .43% in my stock account and .68% in my ira so I beat both the S&P and DOW handily . Not bad but I didn't close at a high for my stock account which was at a .93% gain earlier in the day. My ira is at a high but I've only been in control of it for less than a month. ira up 4.68% since I took it over.
just thought i would get my party's views on taxes on the record. ---------- When you pay taxes, do you do so voluntarily? Or do you do so because you are forced to do so? If you don’t pay your taxes, what will happen? Will you be fined further? Harassed by the IRS or other government entities? Jailed? The Libertarian Party is fundamentally opposed to the use of force to coerce people into doing anything. We think it is inherently wrong and should have no role in a civilized society. Thus we think that government forcing people to pay taxes is inherently wrong. Libertarians advocate for voluntary exchange, where people are free to make their own choices about what to do with their lives, their time, their bodies, their livelihood, and their dollars. If Americans want to give money to the government for one reason or another, they should be free to do so. If Americans prefer to spend their money on other things, then they should be free to do that also.
I am ALSO a LIBERTARIAN.......or as I would call it.....a COSNTITUTIONALIST. UNFORTUNATELY.....the 10th amendment has been twisted TOTALLY beyond recognition.....resulting in the current FEDERAL MONSTROSITY. BUT.....a waste of time and effort to talk about it....and....this is NOT the place for me to do so. Others may if they wish...I am not a mod.
I am close to......or at..... an all time high.......I am not sure where the last one was. I did notice that today my total return year to date......went up to 8%. So I am 3.49% behind the SP500.....at the moment.....year to date this year. As I have said before......my BIG CAP tech and fang stocks are lingering. I EXPECT that this WILL NOT be the case......at some point.....going forward. I am VERY confident that the......tech and fang..... business leaders......will continue to be the leaders for a long time to come. PATIENCE is a virtue....as a long term investor. I also....have no interest in chasing averages or returns. Part of the REALITY of being a long investor is the fact that there WILL be years when you lag some or even all the averages. To me.....it is ALL ABOUT the long term return......beating the SP500 for one year....or some particular year.....or for the first 4 months of the year......is NOT important to me. On another topic....I see that the NASDAQ hit another record today. I see that the BIDEN speech is on Wednesday....earlier I had thought it was on Tuesday. SO.....I guess we get another........free day tomorrow.......before the government steps in with their commentary. GLORIOUS.
TOMORROW.....will be HUGE earnings day for me.....and....for the markets. Stocks that I own that report tomorrow are Google and Microsoft. Other stocks that report tomorrow.....that are important market indicators going forward.......ALL of which I have owned at some point over the past 45+ years of investing are.....3M...Eli Lilly...AMD...Amgen...GE...and...Starbucks. It will be one HUGE day for earnings. We will have the earnings from 3M...Eli Lilly....and GE...BEFORE the open. The rest will report after the close.
The crypto plunge will be the trigger for me. I think that the bubble pop will be central banks/treasuries banning cryptos (like India is trying to do now) because of the real or perceived risk to market/economic stability. I think that China will be next and then EU/USA. Could take another few years but I think it is likely. The US did outlaw holding gold bullion during the 1930s so anything is possible... Did you see that Rishi Sunak is touting the idea of a BritCoin...what nonsense... War between the Ukraine and Russia is always possible but I am not sure Russia feels able to take NATO head-on yet. I think that their plan is to destabilize the Ukraine step-wise and to eventually install a Russia friendly puppet state (like Belarus, Kazakhstan etc..), probably via some corrupt "democratic" process. Its more their style... sneak and steal... They are already claiming that two self governing Ukrainian provinces in the East have asked for their "help". https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-56720589 But I agree it will not be good for markets whatever they do..
A.M. off to a rough start but I'm green .31% in my stock account and just a hair red in my ira. A toast to a dandy rest of the day.
Well someone has to do the heavy lifting.....looks like it will be the little consumer......as usual. U.S. consumer confidence vaults to 14-month high in April https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-consumer-confidence-vaults-14-141118476.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "U.S. consumer confidence jumped to a 14-month high in April as increased vaccination against COVID-19 and additional fiscal stimulus allowed for more services businesses to reopen, boosting demand and hiring by companies. The Conference Board said on Tuesday its consumer confidence index raced to a reading of 121.7 this month. That was the highest level since February 2020, just before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, and followed a reading of 109.0 in March. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index increasing to a reading of 113.0 in April. MY COMMENT YES.....as usual the poor economists are WRONG to the down side as usual. Typical....they dont understand the "little" people.....neither does the government (either party) or the media or the financial elites. The people that are the very foundation of the markets and the economy are always disrespected.......and/or......underestimated.
One of the BIG earnings today was 3M....before the bell. 3M (MMM) Q1 Earnings and Revenues Top Estimates https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3m-mmm-q1-earnings-revenues-115511592.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "3M (MMM) came out with quarterly earnings of $2.77 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.25 per share. This compares to earnings of $2.16 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items. This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 23.11%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this maker of Post-it notes, industrial coatings and ceramics would post earnings of $2.19 per share when it actually produced earnings of $2.38, delivering a surprise of 8.68%. Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times. 3M, which belongs to the Zacks Diversified Operations industry, posted revenues of $8.85 billion for the quarter ended March 2021, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.92%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $8.08 billion. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates two times over the last four quarters. The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call. 3M shares have added about 15.7% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 11.3%." MY COMMENT This is a HUGE earnings beat for 3M. Earnings per share was a blow-out number. Revenue was UP nicely also. Of course.....the stock is DOWN by over 3% on the news. Typical.
