The Long Term Investor

Here.....is another earnings report of interest to many.....GE.

General Electric (GE) Q1 Earnings Surpass Estimates

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/general-electric-ge-q1-earnings-115511601.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"General Electric (GE) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.03 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.02 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.05 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.

This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 50%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this industrial conglomerate would post earnings of $0.08 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.08, delivering no surprise.

Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times.

GE, which belongs to the Zacks Diversified Operations industry, posted revenues of $17.12 billion for the quarter ended March 2021, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.61%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $20.52 billion. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates three times over the last four quarters.

The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.

GE shares have added about 25.5% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 11.3%.

MY COMMENT

NOT sure I would call this an earnings....."surpass". Earnings per share were hardly significant and were a distinct DROP from last quarter. Revenue was NOT a beat. The stock is DOWN by nearly 4% today so far.

I would NOT touch this company with a 30 foot pole. A perfect example of a FAILING business. A classic case of MANAGEMENT incompetence and malpractice by a celebrity CEO......years ago. It is very difficult to recover a company lke this after it is GUTTED by poor management. How sad.....this company used to be one of the crown jewels of the USA markets...not too long ago.

I owned GE as a core holding for many many years during the Jack Welch years. I SOLD as soon as Immelt become CEO. That was the last time I owned GE......and I anticipate that I WILL NOT everr own the company again.

 

HERE is the third BIG earnings.....so far today.....Eli Lilly.

Eli Lilly profit forecast trimmed as vaccines dent U.S. demand for Covid-19 drugs

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/27/eli-lilly-lly-q1-2021-earnings.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Key Points

• Eli Lilly on Tuesday missed expectations for first-quarter profit and cut the top end of its full-year earnings forecast as demand waned for its Covid-19 antibody therapies with the U.S. vaccine rollout in full swing.
• Nearly 30% of the U.S. population has been vaccinated against Covid-19, hitting demand for antibody drugs that already suffered from slower-than-expected uptake by hospitals.
• Sales of other high-profile Lilly drugs also fell short of Wall Street expectations.

Eli Lilly on Tuesday missed expectations for first-quarter profit and cut the top end of its full-year earnings forecast as demand waned for its Covid-19 antibody therapies with the U.S. vaccine rollout in full swing.

Nearly 30% of the U.S. population has been vaccinated against Covid-19, hitting demand for antibody drugs that already suffered from slower-than-expected uptake by hospitals.

“We didn’t get into this thinking about margins. We wanted to be useful during the pandemic,” said Lilly Chief Executive Officer David Ricks.

The company’s single antibody therapy is no longer being used in the United States after lab tests showed bamlanivimab alone was not effective against some of the new coronavirus variants now widely circulating. It is still being used effectively in combination with etesevimab, another Lilly antibody drug.

Sales of other high-profile Lilly drugs also fell short of Wall Street expectations and its shares fell 3% to $181.64 in morning trading.

“We assumed lower sales of COVID-19 antibodies would impact the quarter and guidance .... but the extent of the miss, especially for important products such as Taltz and Verzenio, is surprising to us,” said Mizuho analyst Vamil Divan.

Sales of psoriasis drug Taltz fell 9% to $403.2 million, missing estimates by $82 million, due to lower prices. The company said it expects the drug to return to net sales growth in the second quarter.

Sales of breast cancer drug Verzenio, facing tough competition, rose 43% to $269 million, shy of Wall Street estimates of $290 million.

Lilly reported sales of $810.1 million from its Covid-19 drugs in the quarter, below estimates of $985 million and fourth-quarter sales of $871.2 million.

The company now expects adjusted full-year earnings of $7.80 to $8.00 per share, from its prior forecast of $7.75 to $8.40 per share.

Lilly sees 2021 antibody combination therapy sales of $1 billion to $1.5 billion. It had previously forecast sales as high as $2 billion.

Excluding items, the company earned $1.87 per share, missing analysts’ estimates by 26 cents, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.

MY COMMENT

A big miss.....no matter how much you try to spin the pandemic and vaccine story line. THIS is exactly why I do not own drug stocks.....or auto....or banks....or insurance....or health care....stocks. These types of businesses are just too erratic and "jumpy" for my taste...compared to other types of BIG CAP companies. I strongly prefer STEADY growth type companies compared to those that constantly go.....UP and DOWN.

 

We are seeing the general markets....SLOWLY....make a come back attempt today. We have NOW improved to a mixed market. No doubt......the big companies above had a significant impact on the averages for he first few hours today. AND....of course EVERYONE is waiting for MSFT and GOOGL to report at the close today.

There is so much HYPE on MSFT and GOOGL.....it will be interesting to see if their GREAT earnings can compare to the hype.

The ten year treasury yield continues to sit in its little range and today at the moment is at 1.592%. It is amazing that no one is talking about it anymore. All the media attention of a month or two ago is now GONE. Looks like the short term traders.......and their media helpers.....have moved on for the moment. That story line about the 10 year yield drawing money out of stocks was such a MORONIC story line anyway. A perfect example of media FEAR MONGERING......assisting......the short term traders.

AND.....even the inflation....story line......is no longer getting much coverage. YES....there is no inflation.

 

I just looked at the portfolios that I own and manage for family. Pleasantly surprised to see them in the green.......very slightly.....but green is green. Lets see a little bit of MANIA today as we head to the open and the BIG earnings reports today. My definition of MANIA....being a very low bar......simply a green day for the averages.

Considering the old time company earnings above before the open....and the drag they create on the averages.....a green ending of any sort will be a very nice result today.

The earnings themselves are STILL in the mid 85% range for BEATS. the way we are going it would not surprise me in the least to see earnings BEATS end up near 90%. Partly due to the recovery from the business closing....BUT ALSO....will show the extreme STRENGTH of the business environment today. PRODUCTIVITY.....in my mind....is the BIG factor that is driving everything right now.

I continue to be fully invested for the long term as usual.

 

My little neighborhood of about 85 homes has a NEW coming soon sign on a home that is an identical match to our floor plan. The last house that was a one story, same square footage, and a similar floor plan just closed for $1.3MIL. I am very curious to see how the realtor prices the new coming soon home and where it sells.

Home prices surge by most since 2006

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/home-prices-surge-by-most-since-2006

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"U.S. home prices in February rose at their fastest pace in 15 years as the COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the urge to move from urban apartments to suburban homes.

Home prices climbed 12% year over year in February, according to the national Case-Shiller index, making for the fastest increase since February 2006. Prices are now 29% above their 2006 peak.

"The housing market is running full steam ahead," said Selma Hepp, deputy chief economist at CoreLogic.

The 20-City Composite rose 11.9% in February versus a year ago, up from 11.1% in the previous month.

All 20 of the index’s cities saw percentage gains over last year, led by Phoenix (+17.4%), San Diego (+17%) and Seattle (+15.4%). The smallest gains were in Chicago (+8.6%) and Las Vegas (+9.1%).

Every region recorded double-digit percentage gains, paced by a 13% increase in the West and a 12.9% rise in the Southwest.

The price increases have been bolstered by continued signs of a strengthening U.S. economy, in addition to low mortgage rates and a shortage of homes available for sale.

However, surging prices won’t last forever, cautions Hepp.

"More for-sale inventories and a narrowing pool of potential buyers will likely slow the speeding train, providing a clearer vision of what’s ahead," she said.

MY COMMENT

What amazes me about this CASE SHILLER index is the cities that are NOT included. HOUSTON, SAN ANTONIO and AUSTIN....three of the top ten largest cities in the country.......and.....among the most RED HOT markets at the moment. Just goes to show that national data is nice....but with housing....it is all about....local, local, local.

I have lived through about 3-4 real estate booms and about 3-4 real estate crashes in my lifetime. The crashes tend to come on very quickly.....the bottom can fall out of a local market in just a week or two. This current BOOM.....at least in my area.....I dont see it ending anytime soon. In fact it seems to be ESCALATING. Show me the money.......at least for now.

 

OK......here is one of the BIG ones today. Microsoft.

Microsoft books biggest revenue growth since 2018

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/27/microsoft-msft-earnings-q3-2021.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Key Points

• Microsoft exceeded analysts’ estimates on the top and bottom lines.
• Windows revenue growth from device makers was higher than the company had predicted.
• Azure revenue growth was flat from the prior quarter.

"Microsoft shares moved 3% lower on Tuesday after the company reported fiscal third-quarter earnings that came in stronger than analysts had expected.

Here’s how the company did:

• Earnings: $1.95 per share, adjusted, vs. $1.78 per share as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.
• Revenue: $41.71 billion, vs. $41.03 billion as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.

The software and hardware maker posted 19% annualized revenue growth for the quarter, which ended March 31, according to a statement. That’s the biggest quarterly increase the company has posted since 2018, thanks in part to gains in PC sales resulting from coronavirus-driven shortages last year.

The company said its Azure public cloud that competes with market leader Amazon Web Services grew 50%, faster than the 46% growth that analysts had expected, according to a CNBC review of 14 equity research notes. In the prior quarter Azure revenue grew 50%. Microsoft does not disclose Azure revenue in dollars.



Microsoft’s Intelligent Cloud segment delivered $15.12 billion in revenue, which was up 23% year over year and above the FactSet consensus estimate of $14.92 billion. Intelligent Cloud contains Azure, Windows Server, SQL Server, Visual Studio, GitHub and Enterprise Services.

The Productivity and Business Processes segment, containing Office, Dynamics and LinkedIn, contributed $13.55 billion in revenue, up 15% and more than the $13.49 billion FactSet consensus.

The company’s More Personal Computing unit, which includes Windows, gaming, devices and search, came up with $13.04 billion in revenue. That was up almost 19% and higher than the $12.55 billion consensus. Technology research company Gartner estimated earlier this month that PC manufacturers shipped nearly 70 million units in the quarter, 32% more than in the year-ago quarter, the fastest growth since Gartner started tracking PC market in 2000. That benefits Microsoft’s sales of Windows licenses to PC makers, which were up 10%.

The outcome was greater than Microsoft itself had forecasted. In January Amy Hood, Microsoft’s finance chief, had called for Windows license revenue from device makers to be up in the low single digits.

Microsoft said in the quarter it had won a U.S. Army contract worth up to $21.9 billion over a decade for augmented reality headsets based on its latest HoloLens device. The company also issued patches to address vulnerabilities in its Exchange Server on-premises email and calendar software that Chinese hackers exploited. It also closed the $7.5 billion acquisition of video game maker ZeniMax Media.

With respect to guidance, analysts polled by Refinitiv expect $42.98 billion in revenue for the fiscal fourth quarter, which would imply annualized revenue growth of 13%.

Notwithstanding the after hours move, Microsoft shares are up 18% year to date, compared with a gain of around 12% for the S&P 500 over the same time period.

Executives will discuss the results with analysts and issue guidance on a conference call starting at 5:30 p.m. ET."

MY COMMENT

YES.....I own this company. These are OUTRAGEOUS earnings. Blew away ALL the projections in EVERY category.

I am so tired of all the media people saying that this company and others are seeing these gains due to the pandemic. WELL....for this and other companies the pandemic is virtually over.....yet....I predict the earnings will continue to blow away all the predictions going forward.

This company is BACK from the dismal POST-GATES years. GATES did not do the company any favors with the management that he stuck the company with over the years. Steve Ballmer.....what a pathetic manager....but....anyway....the current management is TOP OF THE LINE. They are good enough that they caused to to RE-BUY the stock after selling in about 2002.

 

YOU do REALIZE that the word I used was......"ESCALATING"........NOT....you know what.

 

NOW......Google.

Alphabet reports big earnings beat as revenue grows 34%

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/27/alphabet-goog-earnings-q1-2021.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Key Points

• Alphabet reported big beats on earnings and revenue in Q1.
• The stock rose more than 4% in after-hours trading.
• YouTube ads grew nearly 50% year-over-year.

Alphabet reported huge beats on its top and bottom lines for its first quarter of 2021, as well as a new $50 billion stock buyback,which boosted the stock more than 4% in after-hours trading.

Here’s how Google’s parent company fared in the quarter relative to what Wall Street analysts polled by Refinitiv expected:

• Earnings: $26.29 per share vs. $15.82 per share expected
• Revenue: $55.31 billion vs. $51.70 billion expected
• Google Cloud revenue: $4.05 billion vs. $4.07 billion, according to FactSet estimates.
• YouTube ads: $6.01 billion vs. $5.70 billion, according to StreetAccount.
• Traffic Acquisition Costs (TAC): $9.71 billion vs. $9.25 billion, according to FactSet estimates.

Google’s revenue rose 34% from the same period a year prior. The company reported advertising revenue of $44.68 billion for the quarter. That’s a significant rise from $33.76 billion in the same quarter last year, making it the fastest annualized growth rate in at least four years, although the results were boosted by easy comparable, as the onset of the coronavirus pandemic caused a steep drop in advertising spend.



YouTube ads came in at $6.01 billion during the quarter — a 49% rise from year ago.

YouTube became the winner of the pandemic in terms of social media sites, according to a recent Pew report, which said the video platform saw usage grow from 73% of U.S. adults in 2019 to 81% in 2021.

YouTube during the first quarter also revealed its latest metrics for its TikTok competitor Shorts, which the company said had 3.5 billion daily views as of the end of January. It also announced it would be expanding to other countries, including the U.S. beginning this year.

Google Cloud revenue grew 46% year-over-year to $4.05 billion, which was in-line with Wall Street’s expectations. It lost $974 million during the quarter, significantly narrowing losses from the same period a year ago. Google Cloud includes infrastructure and data analytics platforms, collaboration tools such as Google Docs and Sheets, and “other services for enterprise customers.”

The company’s “Other Bets” segment, which includes its health tech unit Verily and autonomous-vehicle bet Waymo, lost $1.15 billion on revenues of $198 million.

Alphabet’s board approved an additional stock repurchase of up to $50 billion on April 23, Tuesday’s filing stated.

In March, Google announced a $7 billion investment toward expanding offices and data centers across 19 states, creating what will amount to at least 10,000 full-time jobs. That came as the company doubled down on bringing its workforce back to physical offices after the pandemic."

MY COMMENT

YEAH....the usual tip of the hat to the pandemic. Again......I believe these new levels will hold and increase from here.....even without the pandemic. another company that is growing amazingly.......and....obviously management has it all figured out. YES.....I do own this company.

 

My account was red today....but...so minimal as to nearly be meaningless. I ended dead even with the SP500.....down 0.02% for the day. ACTUALLY......the great majority of my holdings were in the green today. TESLA and GOOGLE were the couple of holding that dragged me down.

 

EMMETT.....yeah Coinbase. It is WAY too early for me to consider buying that stock. I was willing to buy it for a short term momentum trade......which ended very quickly when I missed the POP.......by being busy watching TV. BUMMER.....but who knows if I would have pulled the trigger......or ...if GREED would have got me.

BUT now......no way. I will GLADLY.....buy the company when it shows that it is becoming the DOMINANT crypto broker as a world wide player.......and is one of those ICONIC companies that I like to ivnest in. BUT....that is down the road.....if ever.

 

Tomorrow........another big show. The FUN continues with earnings from.......APPLE...BOEING...YUM...and...FORD. APPLE being the only one that I personally care about. Apple reports after the close. Boeing and Yum report before the open. Ford reports by transfer agent directly to shareholders.

So tomorrow....we will have the push/pull of some big companies reporting and perhaps DRAGGING the markets down at the open.....versus....the big earnings reports today......versus....the FED fear.

 

Well....after my little $100 buy of bitcoin today.....I NOW own 1/64 of ONE Bitcoin.

Just for fun....not an investment....Unless the price goes up to at least $10,000,000. Than I might be talking about some REAL money.

 

I like this little article on the future for AMAZON. As a shareholder of this CLASSIC, DOMINANT, company this is welcome analysis....and in my opinion justified.

Amazon stock is exciting for these two reasons: analyst

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amazon-stock-is-exciting-for-these-two-reasons-analyst-185337414.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Amazon's (AMZN) once hot stock has been anything but in 2021 as investors fret about sales at the tech giant's core retail business plunging this year as it cycles through comparisons to the start of the pandemic fueled e-commerce boom in 2020.

But widely followed tech analyst Brent Thill of Jefferies says putting too much focus on Amazon's retail business is misguided when considering the company has numerous other growth juggernauts. As long as those juggernauts — Amazon Web Services, advertising and Prime — continue their blistering paces of growth, Amazon's stock could break free from its slump, bulls like Thill contend.

"I think the power of AWS and their advertising and other software parts of their business and subscription models are the most exciting," Thill said on Yahoo Finance Live. "I think investors are really concerned about the overall e-commerce business in the short-term given how big the comparisons are."

Thill's latest research opines that Amazon has 70% upside potential in terms of valuation over the next three years driven by growth in AWS and advertising. That would put Amazon's stock at $5,700 or so compared to $3,400 currently.

"This implies Amazon's market cap approaches $3.0 trillion by 2024 and this does not include potentially meaningful contributions from multi-billion dollar opportunities in health care, home security, smart-home devices, and entertainment. The company also has room for further expansion in areas such as apparel, B2B [business-to-business], and SaaS [software-as-a-service]," Thill wrote earlier this month.

Thill maintains a $4,000 price target on Amazon and a Buy rating.

Amazon is slated to report first-quarter earnings on Thursday after the close of trading.

The company's guidance calls for sales growth of 33% to 40% year-over-year to between $100 billion and $106 billion. Operating income is seen in a range of $3.5 billion to $6.5 billion compared to $4 billion a year earlier.

Analysts are modeling for sales of $106 billion and $6.5 billion in operating income, in large part on the back of strength in those aforementioned juggernaut businesses. Core retail is also expected to be a solid performer as the pandemic stretches on, but perhaps not as robust a sales grower as most of 2020.

Indeed Amazon's stock reflects the caution on the Street regarding growth rates in the retail business.

Year-to-date, Amazon shares are up 5%, versus a 12% gain on the S&P 500 and 9.5% pop on the Nasdaq Composite. It's the third worst-performing component of the closely watched FAANG index (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google) of tech giants — Apple shares are up 1.4% on the year while Netflix has dropped 7%.

MY COMMENT

YES to the above. I have no concern for the retail part......or any other part..... of this company.

This is a company that has NEVER hesitated to spend the money necessary to go to the next level. Over the past year AMAZON hired 175,000 employees and increased their warehouse footprint by 50%. They ALSO made a major push to move to one day shipping for Prime members. Profitability has been impacted by a push in operating expenses for company infrastructure, employees, and shipping. This relatively young company....is STILL......willing to take a short term hit to build out the business for the longer term. In my opinion that is what has impacted the stock lately.....a significant increase in operating expenses......that will pave the way to the next level.

In my opinion this company....is the single most dominant business in the USA. A MUST HOLD for any long term investor.

Earnings will come out on this Thursday.

 

YES....market direction for the next year or perhaps two is strongly UP. BUT....I do not underestimate the power of government to kill the markets and the economy.

AND.....positive company data can only go so far. Today we see companies with GREAT earnings paying a price with shares down. We see other companies....Boeing and Amgen.....tanking the market with poor earnings. We see an IRRATIONAL focus on the short term......the FED and the government tax and spend DRAMA tonight......overwhelming any rational economic and company news today. AND.....I will NOT even begin to mention......because it will just cause turmoil and anger on an investing site....... the social, cultural, educational system, racial, immigration, capitalism versus other economic theories, etc, etc, issues that ARE going to SEVERELY impact and DISRUPT the country going forward.....for a long time.

On one hand we are in a market BOOM.....deservedly.....based on company results and business. On the other hand we have many many potential issues.....some of which are mentioned above.........many are not mentioned above since I dont want to be too negative.....that WILL have SEVERE IMPACT on our economy either directly or indirectly.

 

On the positive side....at least for the very short term....the open today....we are seeing the SP500 hitting a new all time high and we are seeing the NASDAQ also up. The....not too relevant DOW.....understandably is down so far today.

In the current environment....considering ALL FACTORS.....capturing the gains in stocks and real estate and other assets....collectables, art, hard assets....requires being invested. BUT....caution is STILL necessary. ONLY invest what you can afford to have in any particular asset. Make sure you are NOT overextended. Invest REAL MONEY....not leveraged money. AVOID the mania and greed factors.

We are in a great time for investors and owners of many sorts of assets. BUT....at the same time.....the issues I see have great potential to DISRUPT. SENTIMENT can change very quickly......in any market. Any long term investor MUST invest with the realization that risk tolerance and time span are CRITICAL. My view at this moment......yes, capture the gains and invest for the long term.....but be cautious and aware of what is going on around you......not because you are going to time the markets.......but to avoid being caught overextended. In other words......plan for the best outcome.....and....plan for the worst outcome.....if you can live with either without an impact on your lifestyle and financial security....you are ok.

 

NOT a bad day in my account.....on the positive side.....I am hoovering at an all time high......and the account is being supported today by AMAZON and GOOGLE.....barely. On the negative side.....it is a very shallow day today....at least in my account. Not a lot of confidence or movement either direction. A day when the markets are lingering and waiting for some news item.....or something.....to establish a clear direction......a directionless day with no confidence in the markets.

If I had to guess....days like this tend to often tip to the negative as the day progresses.....but....LUCKILY......being long term........I dont have to "guess" about the short term markets.