The Long Term Investor

Well we are near the start of another week. I dont see much of a dip coming.....there is way too much POWER in the fundamentals that are going to be UNLEASHED by the re-opening over the next 1-2 years. There will.....no doubt....be the normal corrections over that same time period.

My one question to anyone that is skittish.....run any time period longer than a year or two for the SP500. It is.....very...apparent that over the longer term...in the SP500....you are looking at an average annual total return of 10-11%. What other asset is going to give me that level of return for a lifetime? Perhaps some types of real property....but...I doubt it.

I will GLADLY take what the markets want to give me......in fact....I did......along with some individual stock buys along the way......and....that is why I have not worked in the past 23 years......other than as a professional musician. I had the benefit of being a successful small business owner for 22+ years. This gave me HIGH disposable income to invest for retirement and in my taxable brokerage account.

BUT....if I did not have that income and had worked in a regular job......with FOCUS and a good PLAN......I would have STILL piled up a good amount of investing money by being LONG TERM.....and understanding the power of COMPOUNDING. I saw my mom do this over a lifetime of investing.....as a stay at home housewife.......on the salary of my dad...... a career Army Officer. I doubt that his military salary when he retired with about 27 years in 1972 was over $25,000 to $30,000. We see stories all the time about someone that racked up an estate worth millions...on a regular job......by long term STEADY investing. This is what it is all about.....it is NOT about hitting the JACKPOT.

In fact.....one of my kids and spouse.....both first responders......have racked up $300,000 in a taxable brokerage account.....by simply investing in the SP500. They started investing about 8 years ago. They were able to put away a lump sum to get started when they sold a house......and.....they currently automatically invest $1000 per month in the INDEX between the two of them. They spend.....ZERO TIME....on the markets and investing. They started because I.....HOUNDED THEM.....to do it. BUT now.....they are BELIEVERS. They STILL spend ZERO time on the markets...but they now KNOW........... it WILL WORK......and grow money for them while they simply live their lives and dont even look at it.

Disney, Airbnb earnings, Retail sales: What to know this week

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/disn...l-sales-what-to-know-this-week-223125611.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Though first-quarter earnings season is winding down, a handful of major companies will still be reporting results this week, including some of the newly public names like Airbnb (ABNB), Roblox (RBLX) and Bumble (BMBL). The Commerce Department's retail sales report is also set for release, offering another update on the strength of consumer spending during the economic recovery.

So far, companies have been blowing past expectations this earnings season, with corporate profits easily exceeding estimates as demand rebounds from the worst points of the pandemic last year. According to FactSet data, as of Friday, about nine in 10 S&P 500 companies had reported first-quarter results, and 86% of these topped expectations. If that holds through the next couple weeks, it would mark the highest percentage of earnings beats since FactSet began tracking the metric in 2008.

Disney (DIS) will be one of the major index components reporting results this week. Different areas of the entertainment giant's business have been helped or harmed by social distancing standards stemming from the pandemic: While the company's Disney+ streaming service has flourished, its larger and more lucrative parks, entertainment and experiences business has floundered.

Disney reported in early March that Disney+ topped 100 million subscribers for the first time, crossing that milestone just 16 months after its late-2019 launch. That speedy growth trajectory has made the company a formidable competitor to long-time streaming incumbent Netflix (NFLX), which boasted more than 208 million worldwide subscribers as of the end of its first quarter.

However, Netflix's first-quarter results served as a possible harbinger of deceleration for Disney+ and other streaming services, with consumers beginning to return to in-person entertainment. Netflix added only 3.98 million paid subscribers in the first quarter, or sharply below the 6.3 million expected, and also guided below consensus estimates for current-quarter streaming additions.

Still, as a newer player, Disney+ may still have more room to grow until it starts to see a marked slowdown, even as consumers spend more time outdoors and away from screens this year. And Disney's management said in March it expected the service to reach between 230 million and 260 million global subscribers by the end of fiscal 2024. The business unit is expected to become profitable by that year as well, after the company's direct-to-consumer business segment containing Disney+ lost $2.8 billion in fiscal 2020.

But outside of streaming, many on Wall Street are hoping Disney also posts a rosier outlook for its parks business for the coming months as vaccinations allow for more reopenings.

Disneyland Paris and Disneyland and California Adventure in Anaheim, Calif. were closed throughout Disney's fiscal second quarter, meaning the company will still likely see a dent from that lost traffic in this week's report. Cruises were also still halted. However, Disney's California theme parks just reopened at the end of April with some social distancing restrictions, suggesting the business segment might finally begin to pace back toward profitability, after three consecutive quarterly operating losses. During the company's last earnings call in February, CEO Bob Chapek said he expected mask-wearing and social distancing to stay in place at Disney's parks at least through the end of this year, and likely into next year.

Overall, Wall Street is looking for Disney to post adjusted earnings of 28 cents per share on revenue of $15.85 billion, representing a fourth straight year-over-year drop in sales. Shares of Disney have increased 1.7% for the year-to-date through Friday, underperforming against the S&P 500's 12.5% gain over that period.

Meanwhile, newly public vacation rental company Airbnb (ABNB) is also set to report earnings results this week, with the company's results also closely tied to the pace of the economic recovery.

Consensus economists are looking for gross bookings, or the total dollar value of bookings on the Airbnb platform, to have increased to about $7.57 billion in the first quarter through March, rising from $5.9 billion in the final three months of 2020. In all, gross bookings were down 37% in 2020 to $23.9 billion, with overall bookings deeply undercut by the pandemic and stay-in-place orders.

But with more individuals now vaccinated and itching for getaways, Airbnb's recovery prospects have brightened. First-quarter revenue likely grew 56% to $717.96 million, though adjusted EBITDA is expected to have widened to $367.23 million from the $334.3 million reported in the same period last year.

Many on Wall Street have suggested Airbnb has an advantage over traditional lodging companies like hotels, since many of Airbnb's listings are single-home residences that might better cater to consumers looking to still steer clear of crowds.

However, like other travel companies, Airbnb's domestic business has picked up faster than its international business, and leisure travel has recovered faster than business travel, leaving a gap in results compared to pre-pandemic bookings levels.

"We are seeing a lot of resiliency in certain geographies, especially North America and Europe. What we've generally found is that domestic travel globally is pretty strong, and that the primary challenge is cross-border travel, in addition to, of course, business travel, where we're not as affected by business travel reductions," Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky said during the company's last earnings call in late February. However, he also noted that he largely expected "there will be a significant travel rebound" in 2021, once restrictions lift and borders begin to open.

Shares of Airbnb have risen 2.6% for the year to date through Friday's close, underperforming against the Nasdaq's 6.5% gain.

Retail sales, CPI
One of the key economic data reports investors will be watching this week will be the April retail sales report from the Commerce Department, due out Friday.

Most pundits are expecting some payback after an exceptionally strong March report, since spending then had been boosted by the latest round of stimulus checks sent to most Americans. Retail sales rose by 9.8% in March for the fastest pace since May 2020, as clothing, building material, and sporting goods and hobby store sales each advanced strongly.

"Retail sales are expected to post a decent gain again after jumping 9.8% month-on-month in March on the back of the $1,400 stimulus payments. The cash deposits were made in the second half of the month, and this should mean there is some carry-through on spending into April," ING Chief International Economist James Knightley said in a note Friday. "The reopening economy also means there are more options to spend money, and with household savings having risen $3 trillion during the pandemic, there is plenty of cash ammunition to use."

Consensus economists are looking for retail sales to rise by just 1.0% in April over March. Excluding auto and gas sales, retail sales likely climbed by an even slimmer margin, or just 0.5%.

And in addition to consumer spending data, more data on consumer price changes will also be released this week. Wednesday's consumer price index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to show a 3.6% year-over-year rise in consumer prices, accelerating from a 2.6% rise in March. And even excluding volatile food and energy prices, the index is expected to rise 2.3% year-over-year after a 1.6% gain in March.

Economists have attributed the main driver of the recent jump in consumer prices to base effects, or inevitable jumps off last year's pandemic-depressed levels. Month-over-month, the consumer price index likely increased just 0.2% from March to April, or 0.3% when excluding food and energy prices.

However, a number of companies have underscored during their latest quarterly earnings calls that supply chain disruptions and supply and demand mismatches have led to higher prices beyond those explained by base effects. As such, market participants are poised to closely watch the rest of 2021's inflation prints closely, eyeing signals of persistent price pressures.

"While there is unusually high uncertainty surrounding the near-term inflation outlook, we think inflationary bottlenecks for certain goods and services are likely to lead to continued firming of core inflation in the coming months," Nomura economist Lewis Alexander wrote in a note Friday.

Earnings calendar

• Monday: Marriott International (MAR), Coty Inc (COTY), Duke Energy (DUK), Tyson Foods (TSN), Workhorse Group (WKHS) before market open; Roblox (RBLX), Nuance Communications (NUAN), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Affirm Holdings (AFRM), Novavax (NVAX), The Real Real (REAL), SmileDirectClub (SDC), Virgin Galactic Holdings (SPCE) after market close
  
  
• Tuesday: Palantir (PLTR) before market open; Lemonade (LMND), Chesapeake Energy (CHK), FuboTV (FUBO), Opendoor Technologies (OPEN), Electronic Arts (EA) after market close
  
  
• Wednesday: Compass Inc. (COMP), Bumble (BMBL), Sonos (SONO), Vroom Inc (VRM), ThredUp Inc (TDUP), Green Thumb Industries (GTII); Poshmark (POSH), Wish (WISH) after market close
  
  
• Thursday: Alibaba (BABA), Yeti Holdings (YETI) before market open; Coinbase (COIN), DoorDash (DASH), Disney (DIS), Airbnb (ABNB), Blink Charging Co (BLNK) after market close
  
  
• Friday: N/A

Economic calendar

• Monday: N/A
  
  
• Tuesday: NFIB Small Business Optimism index, April (100.8 expected, 98.2 in March); JOLTS job openings, March (7.5 million expected, 7.367 million)
  
  
• Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended May 7 (-0.9%); Consumer price index, April month-over-month (0.2% expected, 0.6% in March); Consumer price index excluding food and energy, April month-over-month (0.3% expected, 0.3% in March); Consumer price index, April year-over-year (3.6% expected, 2.6% in March); Consumer price index excluding food and energy, April year-over-year (2.3% expected, 1.6% in March); Real average weekly earnings, year-over-year, April (3.9% in March); Real average hourly earnings year-over-year, April (1.5% in March); Monthly budget statement, April (-$659.6 million in March)
  
  
• Thursday: Producer price index, April month-over-month (0.3% expected, 1.0% in March); Producer price index excluding food and energy, April month-over-month (0.4% expected, 0.7% in March); Producer price index, April year-over-year (5.8% expected, 4.2% in March); Producer price index excluding food and energy, April year-over-year (3.7% expected, 3.1% in March); Initial jobless claims, week ended May 8 (500,000 expected, 498,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, week ended May 1 (3.640 million expected, 3.690 million during prior week)
  
  
• Friday: Retail sales, April month-over-month (1.0% expected, 9.8% in March); Retail sales excluding autos and gas, April month-over-month (0.5% expected, 8.2% in March); Import price index, April month-over-month (0.6% expected, 1.2 in March); Import price index, April year-over-year (10.3% expected, 6.9% in March); Export price index, April month-over-month (0.6% expected, 2.1% in March); Export price index, April year-over-year (9.1% in March); Industrial production, April month-over-month (1.2% expected, 1.4% in March); Capacity utilization, April (75.2% expected, 74.4% in March); University of Michigan consumer sentiment, May preliminary (90.1 expected, 88.3 in April."

MY COMMENT

For ANYONE......under age 30......investing in a steady vehicle like the SP500 over a lifetime WILL produce far more money that you can imagine. The KEY FACTORS:

Start young.
Invest as much as possible.
Invest a budgeted amount every month.
Invest over your entire lifetime.
Understand the power of COMPOUNDING.

In fact....MOST...people are instinctively doing this. It is called the 401K and/or the IRA.

LETS have a good week this week.....but......it is just the short term. Fun to watch....but NOT relevant....compared to racking up savings and investment gains over a lifetime as a long term investor. The BIG REQUIREMENT.........have faith.

 

It is kind of a BAD JOKE.....the old MEDIA line about MILLENIALS.....and how they dont want to own a house or buy things....they just want experiences. I feel sorry for the many young people that are trying to buy a house right now. It is truly a FRENZIED and DESPERATE market.......for buyers.

The DANGER.....people get caught up in the MANIA and buy something that is a BAD HOUSE and a bad buy.....just to buy something....anything. I really dont have an answer......it is a difficult thing to see yourself falling further and further behind......in ability to afford a home in the real estate market.

Homebuyer sentiment sinks to a 10-year low amid tight supply

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fann...mebuyers-sentiment-10-year-low-123008564.html

(Bold is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Homebuying sentiment hit a 10-year low in April as the housing market continues to heat up into the busy spring season, according to new data released Friday morning.

The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) fell 2.7 points to 79 last month from a month earlier. One part of the six-component index — buying conditions — turned negative for the first time in the survey's history. In April, the net share of consumers who say it is a good time to buy fell 14 percentage points from a month earlier. Three other components of the index, (home price outlook, job loss concern and change in household income), also decreased month-over-month, while selling conditions and mortgage rate outlook increased.

“April’s HPSI reading appears to have been acutely impacted by the ongoing lack of housing supply despite improving economic conditions,” said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist for Fannie Mae, in a press statement. “Consumer sentiment toward buying homes reached the lowest level in our survey’s 10-year history; unsurprisingly, respondents overwhelmingly cited the lack of supply and high home prices as primary reasons for their pessimism."

Last month, the percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to buy a home dropped to 47% from 53%, while the percentage who say it is a bad time to buy increased to 48% from 40%, according to Fannie Mae.

In April, the net share of consumers who say it is a good time to buy fell 14 percentage points, becoming negative for the first time in survey history, according to the Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index. [Credit: Fannie Mae]
Real estate veteran Barbara Corcoran recently told Yahoo Finance that homebuyers are "panicked, depressed for good reason" and are "forced to spend a lot more on the house than they would." Her thoughts were echoed earlier this week by Jeff Taylor, Mphasis Digital Risk co-founder and managing partner, who told Yahoo Finance: "We have seen bidding wars at every price point."

Home price growth is surging at the fastest pace in 15 years, according to the latest Standard & Poor’s S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index. The growth rate amounts to an increase of $35,000 in the median selling price for homes from just a year ago, according to Morgan Stanley strategist Vishwanath Tirupattur.

Median existing home prices reached a new high of $329,100 in March, up 17.2% from the same time a year ago — rising at the fastest pace of growth since the National Association of Realtors (NAR) started tracking prices in 1999.

"Demand and supply factors remain a tailwind for home prices," Tirupattur recently wrote in a research note, adding that millennials are partially driving demand for housing because that generation continues "to drive household formation at a rate 30-50% above the long-run rate of new household formation."

"Even before the [COVID-19] pandemic, demographic tailwinds and historically-low mortgage rates had pushed demand to high levels," Goldman Sachs economists said in a recent research note. "A shift in preferences during the pandemic caused demand to spike, and consumer surveys indicate that household buying intentions are now the highest in 20 years."

But the sticker shock is putting a damper on homebuying.

"The decrease in homebuying sentiment likely indicates that some consumers, potentially flush with savings – perhaps boosted in part by stimulus payments – may be attempting, but failing, to buy a home due to heightened competition for relatively few listed homes," said Duncan.

Total number of homes for sale in the U.S. fell to historic lows of 1.07 million units in March. Unsold inventory sits at a 2.1-month supply at the current sales pace, marginally up from February’s 2.0-month supply and down from the 3.3-month supply recorded in March 2020.

"The supply picture offers no quick fixes to the shortage of available homes," Goldman said. "Homebuilders are again facing headwinds that were already present before the pandemic, especially a lack of available plots to build on and a lack of construction workers. These constraints are likely to limit the pace of annual homebuilding to around 1.5 million in coming years."

Meanwhile, demand for homes doesn't seem to be waning. A leading indicator of future sales — pending home sales — ticked up in March after a two-month slowdown. And that means home sellers are probably feeling pretty good about this spring. The net share of those who say it is a good time to sell increased 8 percentage points in April month over month, according to the Fannie Mae.

"Consumer positivity regarding home-selling conditions nearly matched its all-time high, demonstrating a large divergence in perceived conditions between sellers and buyers, as measured by the gap between the two components," said Duncan. "As has become standard discourse in the housing industry recently, increasing the supply of homes for sale would certainly help bring balance to this strong seller’s market, but unfortunately the most recent data doesn’t suggest that inventory is likely to improve in the near future.”"

MY COMMENT

For buyers.......I dont have much help.......SORRY. BUT...in many areas....this sort of boom may not last. NOTHING goes up forever.......I have seen many housing booms followed by housing BUSTS over the past 30-40 years.

HOPEFULLY...others on here.....or.....other young people that have been able to successfully buy....will have some ideas or suggestions how to deal with this market if you are trying to buy your first home.

 

Much of the above and much on this thread BOILS DOWN to......be RATIONAL in your investing.....and.....keep expectations within the fundamental data and REASON.

The Limits of Investing Sanity

https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/the-limits-of-investing-sanity/

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Jerry Seinfeld had the most popular show on TV. Then he quit.

He later said the reason he killed his show while it was thriving was because the only way to identify the top is to experience the decline, which he had no interest in. Maybe the show could keep rising, maybe it couldn’t. He was fine not knowing the answer.

If you want to know why there’s a long history of economies and markets blowing past the boundaries of sanity, bouncing from boom to bust, bubble to crash, it’s because so few people have Jerry’s mentality. We insist on knowing where the top is, and the only way to find it is keep pushing until we’ve gone too far, when we can look back and say, “Ah, I guess that was the top.”

Two things are important here.

One is that every investment is valued by taking a number from today and multiplying it by a story about tomorrow. Sometimes an asset is mostly numbers, sometimes it’s all story. But there’s always a story about future potential involved. And stories aren’t beholden to reason or logic – they’re just whatever people want to believe.

Are bonds overvalued? What is bitcoin worth? How high can Tesla go? You can’t answer those questions with a formula. They’re driven by whatever someone else is willing to pay for them in any given moment – how they feel, what they want to believe, and how persuasive storytellers are. And those stories change all the time. They can’t be predicted anymore than you can predict what kind of mood I’ll be in three years from now.

The other is that if an investment might have potential to go higher, somebody, somewhere, will test it to find out. People’s desire to get rich far exceeds the number of easy and obvious opportunities. So if you put up a sign that says “there might be an opportunity in this box” somebody will always open the box. Which is to say: we have to identify where the top is.

That’s why don’t stay within the limits of sanity, and why they always overdose on pessimism and optimism. They have to. The only way to know we’ve exhausted all potential opportunity from markets – the only way to identify the top – is to push them past not only the point where the numbers stop making sense, but beyond the stories people believe about those numbers.


Always been the case, always will be.

There are two things you can do about it.

One is acceptance that an insane market doesn’t mean a broken market. Crazy is normal; beyond the point of crazy is normal. Every few years there seems to be a declaration that markets don’t work anymore – that they’re all speculation or detached from fundamentals. But it’s always been that way. People haven’t lost their minds; they’re just searching for the boundaries of what other investors are willing to believe.

The second is realizing the power of enough. Being more like Jerry. A few years ago Chamath was asked about earning the highest returns and remarked:

I would really love to just compound at 15% per year. Because if I can do that for 50 years that’s just enormous. Just slow and steady against hard problems. Start by turning off your social apps and giving your brain a break, so you are more motivated to not be motivated by what everyone else is thinking about.

Maybe there’s more out there, but it’s fine to say, “You know what, I’m pretty happy with this level of risk and I’m fine just watching this game play out.” Not everyone can do it – and markets on average can never do it – but more investors can and should probably try."

MY COMMENT

YES.....the human EGO is a typical KILLER in investing. We see it every day in the CRAZY stories that circulate. Of course...it is boring.....and....not news...to run stories about all the regular, normal, people that simply invest in a reasonable and rational way.

There have ALWAYS been the get rich quick schemes...the speculative investments.....the big score that is going to set you up for life. The difference now.....a.....sensationalist national media that is constant and relentless on the internet.

This is why I have ONE PRIMARY.....very simple investment GOAL....for life. AVERAGE an annual total return of 10% or more for the long term. What a boring goal....what a simple small minded goal......nothing exciting or sexy there.....no focus on the quick BIG HIT......the JACKPOT.

I am CONTENT to simply DOUBLE my money every 6-7 years. If I do better than that.....and I have.....great. BUT....not a requirement....and my simple goal NEVER changes. Perhaps the SINGLE DOMINANT PRINCIPLE behind everything I try to do investing is.......the Rule Of 72's. Realistic compounding of my money......over a time period that is RATIONAL....the long term. I can NOT predict anything about the short or even medium term markets. BUT.....I can predict......to a probability.......nothing is ever 100% sure.....but to a probabiliity......the longer term.

 

As to the short term....today....any particular reason for what and why the markets are doing what they do. Simple answer......NO. Just TYPICAL day to day random variation in the short term markets. Just a typical RANDOM bunch of short term factors....what stocks happen to be up or down,,,,,what the news of the moment happens to be....what people are pushing or freaking out about.......who is manipulating what....whatever the lemmings happen to be doing at the moment......etc, etc, etc.

Stock market news live updates: Stocks trade mixed with tech stocks under pressure, Dow sets record high

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-may-10-2021-112357573.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)
"Stocks traded mixed on Monday, with technology stocks under more pressure as investors weighed the risks that higher inflation during the pandemic recovery might weigh on high-growth names.

The Dow added more than 150 points, or 0.5%, to reach a new all-time high shortly after the opening bell. The Nasdaq dipped, reversing some of Friday's gains. The S&P 500 was little changed.

Treasury yields were roughly unchanged across the long end of the curve, with the benchmark 10-year yield hovering below 1.59%. West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices (CL=F) and gasoline futures (RB=F) gained after the Colonial Pipeline, a top U.S. fuel pipeline operator, temporarily cut off its fuel lines after a cyberattack.

Elsewhere, Ether (ETH-USD), the token built on the Ethereum blockchain, set an all-time high of more than $4,000, building on a rally that's doubled prices for the second-largest cryptocurrency since the beginning of April. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) prices edged slightly lower, hovering below $58,000.

Investors have been focused on the prospects of inflation during the economic recovery coming out of the coronavirus pandemic, with a surge in demand during reopenings apt to drive a surge in prices. This could in turn eventually prompt the Federal Reserve to tighten policies, and taken together, would risk weighing on the valuations of longer-duration growth stocks like those of technology companies especially.

Friday's sharply disappointing jobs report at least temporarily assuaged traders' concerns, with the miss viewed as adding fuel to policymakers' assertions that a full economic recovery remains a ways off. But with commodity prices advancing and a number of major companies citing rising input and end-user prices due to supply and demand mismatches, inflationary concerns are set to remain a key theme for investors to watch in the coming months.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' April consumer price index (CPI) due out Wednesday and producer price index (PPI) on Thursday will show the latest change in prices for consumers and suppliers, with both indexes expected to show a marked jump over last year's pandemic-depressed levels as demand resurges during the recovery.

"Before the pandemic, monthly CPI releases tended to pass without much comment. Now they will be scoured for any evidence of a post-pandemic jump in inflation," Neal Shearing, group chief economist for Capital Economics, wrote in a note Monday. He said investors should watch for three main themes in these reports and in other near-term data.

"The first is evidence of what might be termed 'opening up' inflation. This is likely to appear in goods and services for which there is a surge in demand as restrictions are lifted such as hotels, restaurants, airfares and clothing," he said. "The extent of pent-up demand in these areas means that, even in the best of times, supply might struggle to keep pace."

"The second is evidence of 'opening up' disinflation," he added, with emphasis his. "Some goods, including IT equipment and groceries, saw sharp increases in demand and prices as people were forced to stay at home. It follows that these components should see the reverse of 'reopening inflation.'"

"The final area to watch is evidence of 'commodities-related inflation.' Oil prices have recovered from their slump at the start of the pandemic and metal and grain prices have surged far above pre-pandemic levels," Shearing said. "These developments are already boosting inflation and will continue to do so in the near term. The extent to which they exert further upward pressure on inflation beyond the next six months or so will depend on whether the increase in commodity prices is sustained."

—

10:08 a.m. ET: Positive market reaction to Friday's jobs report came because 'the party continues' with Fed liquidity: Strategist

Friday's jobs report — which showed a disappointing 266,000 payroll gains and an unexpected move higher in the unemployment rate – resulted in a positive market reaction, with the Dow and S&P 500 setting new highs despite the disappointing data.

According to many strategists, those moves came as the weak data appeared to solidify the Federal Reserve's stance to keep monetary policy accommodative at least in the near-term.

"It's primarily because 'the party continues,' if you will," JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist for TD Ameritrade, told Yahoo Finance on Monday of the market's reaction to the report. "And by that I mean, the Fed continuing to keep liquidity in the system, not talking about raising rates in the short term, because there's not the pressure on wages that many had expected."

"You did see the leisure and hospitality industry create more jobs than actually the whole report did. I would expect that to continue," he added.

"We have such differences from what the states are doing, from some that are wide open to others that are talking about coming out of some of the restrictions next month," Kinahan said. "I think it's very difficult to predict at what point these bars and restaurants, particularly, and hotels, are putting people on the payroll.""

MY COMMENT

In spite of posting on here regularly....as sort of an investing diary and blog and documentation of momentary thought......the shortest data that I keep as an investor is.......ONE YEAR data. The FULL EXTENT of the data that I keep......for each year is........the annual performance of the SP500......and the annual performance of any FUND that I happen to own. I also note by a little symbol whether or not any FUND that I own beat the SP500 for the year and a little symbol for any fund or index that I own that gained at least 10% for the year.

I dont....personally keep any data at all for the performance of the stock side of my portfolio. I can simply look that up at Schwab.

SO......the shortest term data point that I keep or consider in evaluating....."MY OWN".....investing performance is for a ONE YEAR......calendar......TIME SPAN.....January 1 to January 1. Keeping or evaluating any data or time period shorter than a year is simply........meaningless BUSY WORK.

 

HERE is a little bit of a message on the current economy....mortgage rates......they are STILL at historic lows. (As of May 9, 2021)

Mortgage rates fall deeper below 3% and ‘window of opportunity' widens

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgage-rates-fall-deeper-below-170000302.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)
"The cost of America’s most popular mortgage has fallen to its lowest level in nearly three months, a long-running survey shows.

That means spring home shoppers now have a second shot at some of the cheapest money ever to be had in the mortgage market, following a series of steep hikes early in the year.

And if you already own a home, it means you still have a window to save hundreds a month by refinancing your existing loan.

The average interest rate on a 30-year fixed loan has slipped to 2.96%, mortgage giant Freddie Mac reported Thursday.

That bargain rate — the lowest since mid-February — was down from 2.98% a week earlier. A year ago at this time, the average was 3.26%.

With the most recent drop, 30-year fixed mortgages have now remained under 3% for three straight weeks. The return of historically low rates is welcome news for homebuyers, says Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist.

"It’s also good for homeowners who may have missed prior opportunities to refinance and increase their monthly cash flow," Khater says.

Black Knight, a mortgage technology and data provider, says 13 million mortgage holders stand to save an average $283 each month by refinancing.

15-year mortgages
The average rate on a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage dipped slightly last week to 2.30%, down from 2.31% the previous week, Freddie Mac says.

These shorter-term mortgages are a popular option for borrowers who can afford higher monthly payments or are refinancing to slash their interest costs.

A year ago, the 15-year fixed rate was averaging 2.73%.

The average rate on a 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage hit 2.7% last week, up from its lowest level in years: just 2.64%. Last year, the average 5/1 rate was 3.14%.

Adjustable-rate mortgages generally start out with lower rates than their fixed-rate counterparts, but after a period of time the rates “adjust.” In other words, they move up or down in sync with the prime rate or another benchmark.

A 5/1 ARM has a fixed rate for five years and then adjusts every (one) year after that.

With so few homes up for sale during the pandemic, competition has been scorching hot across the country. Bidding wars are driving up prices that were already uncomfortably high.

But now, would-be buyers stuck on the sidelines may have a chance to jump in.

George Ratiu, senior economist for Realtor.com, says recent data shows the number of sellers choosing to list their homes is growing as more states ease COVID-19 restrictions.

“For first-time homebuyers, rising inventory and low interest rates open the window of opportunity wider as we move through May, hinting that we might see price gains begin to moderate,” he says in a statement.

If you’re eager to land a cheap rate before they rise again, the first step is to make sure you have a solid credit score. If you don’t know what your score is, it’s easy these days to take a peek at your credit score for free.

Then, to ensure you maximize your savings, you have to shop around. Studies have shown that getting mortgage offers from multiple lenders — five at a minimum — can mean paying thousands less over time.

And while you’re shopping around, consider gathering quotes from multiple insurers, too. It’s easy to fixate on mortgage rates, but a lower premium on your homeowners insurance will also translate into major savings in the long run."

MY COMMENT

My....simple non economist view......this tells us a lot about what the markets REALLY think about the inflation story line, the yield story line, the overheating story line, the FED story line, the media story line. Where the rubber ACTUALLY meets the road.....the mortgage market committing to 30 year loans......rates are at historic lows. Does NOT seem like a lot of pressure to go up in the rates to me......over the past few YEARS. What does that tell you?

 

The DOW is NOW over 35,000. It was ONLY in December of 2020 that it hit the HISTORIC LEVEL of.....30,000. There were front page articles......news everywhere......about this historic level for the DOW. NOW....we are 5000 points higher in ONLY.....5 months. CRICKETS. A few articles here and there and of course some mention on the business shows.....but...generally NOTHING TO SEE HERE.....move on.

How FICKLE the markets.....and the media..... are.

It is interesting that in spite of ALL the various BUMPS and BRUISES over the past.....TWELVE YEARS......the stagnant economy of 2009 to 2016....the insanity of shutting down the economy.....etc, etc.....we have been in a HISTORIC BULL MARKET for.....the past 12 years. It has been that long since the last REAL BEAR MARKET.

HERE are the SP500 total returns for those 12 years.....looks like a BULL MARKET to me. NOW....if you have a REALLY GOOD memory....go back and think about ALL the DOOM&GLOOM that you saw EVERY DAY over that time. ALL the NEGATIVITY for investors. ALL the FEAR MONGERING in the media and elsewhere. ALL the....... "STUFF"......that scares people and keeps them from being an investor. THIS.....is typical of any time period....the short term is FULL of scary "stuff". Fortunately....MOST of it just does not come true.

2020 +18.40%
2019 +31.49%
2018 -4.38%
2017 +21.83%
2016 +11.96%
2015 +1.38%
2014 +13.69%
2013 +32.39%
2012 +16.00%
2011 +2.11%
2010 +15.06%
2009 +26.46%

YES.....of course....the rules have not been suspended.....there will be corrections and there will still be bear markets. Think of how many corrections there was during the above 12 years......20......40....100 or more? Do you see them if you just look at those ANNUAL numbers? NO....over the long term they CEASE to exist....they are forgotten. Same with bear markets.....super pain short term when they happen....but overwhelmed by the gains and progress forward....when they end......and as always with human nature...they are eventually forgotten.

 

As we NOW see the SP500 approaching NEUTRAL for the day....and perhaps going positive....my NON-TECH holdings....Nike, Costco, Home Depot, Honeywell, and Proctor & Gamble.....are doing their jobs today and offsetting much of the weakness in my BIG CAP TECH holdings.

 

Agree oldmanram. This will either be a problem....or....in the least is and will create much turmoil and drama as it works itself out. It is amazing that the government was able to pull this off.....interference with landlord and tenant contracts..... without any court...or any consequence...stepping in to stop it.

What are the odds that they will once again just kick this issue down the road with an extension?

 

We are at the start of what appears to be a TYPICAL week lately. Market down today as was my account. Plus got beat by the SP500 by .70%......obviously...considering my BIG TECH emphasis. I continue week to week to BOUNCE back and forth from a new all time high to down 1% to 2%. All in all I really cant complain about lingering within 1 or 2 percent of an all time high.