The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    HERE is how the above holdings RANK in the SP500.....the greatest 500 companies in the American business universe:

    1 Apple Inc. AAPL
    2 Microsoft Corporation MSFT
    3 Amazon.com Inc. AMZN
    5 Alphabet Inc. Class A GOOGL
    13 NVIDIA Corporation NVDA
    14 Home Depot Inc. HD
    15 Procter & Gamble Company PG
    41 NIKE Inc. Class B NKE
    43 Costco Wholesale Corporation COST
    48 Honeywell International Inc. HON

    Many of the other top 50 companies in the SP500 are the type of businesses that I......DO NOT....... like to own....drug companies, banks and financial companies, and oil companies. Just my personal BIAS.
     
    #5701 WXYZ, May 17, 2021
    Last edited: May 17, 2021
  2. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    W, do you worry about being too heavy on retail?

    I worry about being too heavy in one sector with our portfolio. I'd like to diversify but I am chasing value to the exclusion of all else.

    Any thoughts?
     
  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    NO I dont. In fact I do not consider many of my businesses retail.

    I would consider Amazon, Nike, Costco, Home Depot, and Proctor & Gamble as retail or a combination of retail and manufacturing. BUT....each is in a totally different area and serves a totally different market.

    Amazon is a home delivery retail conglomerate with general retail, plus their cloud computing and tech space.

    Proctor & Gamble is retail/manufacturing.......laundry and grocery products mostly carried in ALL the grocery chains as well as any online source.

    Nike is partly retail and partly a manufacturer....obviously shoes and apparel and sports equipment.

    Home Depot is perhaps the primary lumber, hardware and building supply chain.......to retail customers as well as the building industry/contractors..... in the USA.

    Costco is focused on grocery, clothing and many other sorts of items marketed under a UNIQUE membership program that brings in massive revenue just from the membership plan alone.

    SO.....all are in EXTREMELY different product lines and markets. They are ALL....also.....the go to place in their particular area of retail for the entire population of the USA as well as much of the world.

    I would consider Apple, Microsoft, Google, Nvidia, and Honeywell as manufacturers first.....with some retail secondary.....and....between them they cover the majority of the TECH business space as well as a significant amount of the world wide advertising and entertainment space. They primarily manufacture products and/or provide services to other businesses.....and government...for example the BIG defense contracts that Amazon and Microsoft compete for..... across the entire spectrum. To a certain extent they are TECH CONGLOMERATES when you look at all the various companies and subsidiaries they own.

    Over the past 45 years perhaps more.....my focus has ALWAYS been the BIG CAP, and DIVIDEND paying, DOMINANT, retail and manufacturing companies. I prefer companies that produce and sell products used by the BROAD spectrum of Americans and the WORLD.......on an every day basis. Products that have gotten to the level of necessity.......in many cases. This is why I consider this list of companies as SAFE and reliable investments......their products have gotten to the level of necessity in many cases and are purchased regardless of what is going on in the economy.

    I do NOT like companies that experience the boom and bust cycles you see with such as auto companies, drug companies, banks and finance, insurance companies, oil companies.....to name a few.

    I might see it as an issue if I owned both Lowes and Home Depot......or.....three shoe, sporting goods and sports clothing companies.....or......Intel, AMD and Nvidia....etc, etc. I try to go with the most dominant of the product and business niche and also look for businesses that STILL have room to grow and expand. In other words....BIG CAP GROWTH companies. BUT.....a good number of these companies were "value" companies when I first bought them.

    Probably the best SHORT ANSWER is.....this is simply how I have always invested......so I do what I know......keep it basic......and dont try to reinvent the wheel.

    I see these companies as providing GREAT diversification across many product areas and markets. BUT.....keep in mind that I do not believe in diversification as it is pushed on investors today.....either by type of company or how many stocks and industries an investor should own.
     
    #5703 WXYZ, May 17, 2021
    Last edited: May 17, 2021
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  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I FEEL......safer and more secure......as an investor with companies that produce KNOWN and ACCEPTED products. For example Proctor & Gamble....their brands:

    Brands with net sales of more than US$1 billion annually
    As of 2015, the company stated it owned the following brands with net annual sales of more than $1 billion:[1]

    Brands by product type
    Dishwashing
    • Dawn dishwashing liquid[6]
    • Joy dishwashing liquid (outside the United States)[7]
    • Gain dishwashing liquid
    • Ivory dishwashing liquid
    Menstrual hygiene
    Haircare
    Healthcare products
    Household
    • Ace stain remover liquid
    • Bounce fabric-softener sheet for dryers[9]
    • Cascade dishwasher detergent
    • Fairy (known as Dreft in the Netherlands) dishwashing liquid, toilet soap, household soap, laundry detergent and dishwasher detergent
    • Febreze odor control[6]
    • Flash cleaning product
    • Jar dishwashing liquid and dishwasher detergent
    • Mif (Russian: Миф) dishwashing liquid and dishwasher detergent
    • Mr. Clean household cleaners
    • Pampers disposable diapers
    • Puffs tissues
    • Luvs disposable diapers
    • Safeguard antibacterial soap brand[10] marketed by Procter & Gamble, introduced circa 1965. Safeguard soap is marketed under the brand name Escudo in Mexico.[11]
    • Swiffer cleaning products.
    • Microban cleaning products
    Laundry detergents
    • Ariel laundry detergent
    • Bold laundry detergent
    • Bonux laundry detergent
    • Cheer laundry detergent
    • Daz laundry detergent
    • Downy fabric softener[6]
    • Dreft laundry detergent
    • Era laundry detergent
    • Fairy laundry detergent
    • Gain laundry detergent
    • Ola laundry soap
    • PMC laundry soap
    • Tide laundry detergent
    • Lenor fabric softener
    • Mif (Russian: Миф) laundry detergent
    Skin care
     
  5. Jwalker

    Jwalker Active Member

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    :(
     
  6. Jwalker

    Jwalker Active Member

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    You probably know this but if you didn’t qualify for the first two stimulus checks based on 2019 return but you did qualify for them based on your 2020 you can get the 2 missed stimulus payments as a credit on your 2020 tax return.
     
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  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    YEP.....I did take a credit for the first and second stimulus payments that went out in 2020 on my 2020 tax return. It is the third stimulus payment of $1400......that was paid in 2021........ per person that I am waiting for......or if I never see it......I will take it as a credit on my 2021 tax return.

    The IRS is currently so backlogged including millions of 2019 returns....I consider it remote that I will get those $1400 stimulus payments in the mail. So, I anticipate taking them as a credit. I have NEVER seen the IRS this screwed up. Of course they are incompetent and their computer system is obsolete.....but they are currently REALLY MESSED UP. I am not sure they will EVER recover.
     
    #5707 WXYZ, May 17, 2021
    Last edited: May 17, 2021
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  8. gtrudeau88

    gtrudeau88 Well-Known Member

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    Well my stock goals have taken a little bit of interruption but this interruption may be useful to calculate and understand the result of not taking a long term approach to investing. The nuts and bolts of it are that my wife and I decided we need to remodel a big chunk of the house and now is the best time to do it for a multitude of reasons. Last week I sold half of my stock account, the budgeted amount for the remodel, and removed most of the cash.

    Value of account EOD May 5th before withdraws began - $50,940
    Value of account EOD May 17th - $50,887 (treating my withdraw amount as cash)
    Value of account EOD May 17th if I had left everything as is - $50,902
    Approximate taxes incurred due to sales: $250
    Approximate loss of monthly dividends: $65-$70 per month

    Positions liquidated: 362 KMI, 10 IVV, 161 GOF, 2 GOOGL, 10 DE, 16 VOO, 1 AMZN
    Positions improved: 119 KLIC (bought 69 of these at bottom of huge drop)

    Remaining positions: 285 CSSEP, 180 ENB, 199 KLIC. I kept these 3 (and improved KLIC as mentioned above) as I think these have the best opportunity for continued growth.

    I'm going to reply to this post at the end of each month (maybe every other) with how the account would have done had my original positions remained. The market now is very volatile with plenty of ups and downs. My posts may illustrate the importance of not withdrawing from the market when things go down.
     
  9. gtrudeau88

    gtrudeau88 Well-Known Member

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    Been a rough time market wise since the highs achieved the week ending 5/7. My IRA is down 1.88% since that time. The real bright spot has been RIO which is up 15.89% since I got into it at the start of April and has more than held it's own during the turmoil and volatility.
     
  10. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Good to see you back and posting gtrudeau88.

    As you know.....nothing wrong with using some of your money to do a house remodel. That is why people save and invest.....to be able to do the things they want to do and need to do in life. It is not like you are throwing the money away....housing....real property.....is ALSO an investment. In addition to the money investment in real property......it is a lifestyle investment. There has to be BALANCE in life.....and....creating a nice home for your family and at the same time adding value to the asset is understandable.

    If you are in one of the HOT real estate markets.....that investment in your home MIGHT end up paying off more than the stocks or funds. I see what you are doing as....DIVERSIFICATION.
     
  11. oldmanram

    oldmanram Well-Known Member

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    TomB , I want one of those "MONDAY CHIPS" for my brain !!
    My brain could use the rest , It comes on Sunday afternoon and wakes me about 5 am Monday morning

    Zukodany, , I have a excel spreadsheet too, and every penny I make goes on it,
    my deductions on the other hand, not so much............ok I'm lazy , and tired , and just want to RELAX after the day. But if ever up in Seattle I'll throw a couple garbage bags of receipts at you and you can have at it !!
    agreed, ZUKODANY , it can take more time to straighten out what an accountant has screwed up than if I were to do them all by myself, which I did for many, many years.

    Market Report , thanks to the late rally only down .15% beating both Nasdaq & S&P
    I'll take that !!

    AT&T (T) yesterday , first thing it was up over 4% and by this afternoon it settled down 2.7%
    today looks bad so far , DOWN 7% at the opening !!
     
    #5711 oldmanram, May 18, 2021
    Last edited: May 18, 2021
  12. gtrudeau88

    gtrudeau88 Well-Known Member

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    Thank you. The market here in the upper midwest is quite hot and this investment will likely pay off in the long run. We've decided to live in this house as long as possible, i.e. till we're either dead or moving to a nursing home, so we need this home to be comfortable to retire in. If we did need to sell, the original kitchen would be a definite drag on resaleability.

    The remodeling is definitely is both a lifestyle investment and a real property investment.
     
  13. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    Sorry should have used my words more carefully. I’m sure you’re a great accountant!
    I’m sure that the problem is with me, I always blame myself for everything so I can take initiative and do a better job. It always works :)
     
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  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Well I got an earnings report for Home Depot.....BLOW OUT numbers......but as usual.....the stock is down today.

    Home Depot crushes estimates, its sales jump 32.7% as customers rang up bigger purchases

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/18/home-depot-hd-q1-2021-earnings.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Key Points
    • Home Depot handily beat Wall Street’s estimates for its fiscal first-quarter earnings and revenue.
    • The retailer has gotten a boost to sales over the last year during the coronavirus pandemic.
    • Home Depot didn’t release an outlook for fiscal 2021.
    Home Depot on Tuesday crushed Wall Street’s earnings estimates as consumers’ splurging on their homes lingers more than a year into the coronavirus pandemic.

    Shares of Home Depot rose more than 2% in premarket trading but fell less than 1% after the market opened. The stock has risen more than 20% this year, giving it a market value of $344 billion as of Monday’s close.

    Here’s what the company reported for the three months ended May 2 compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by Refinitiv:

    • Earnings per share: $3.86 vs. $3.08 expected
    • Revenue: $37.5 billion vs. $34.96 billion expected
    The retailer reported fiscal first-quarter net income of $4.15 billion, or $3.86 per share, up from $2.25 billion, or $2.08 per share, a year earlier. Analysts surveyed by Refinitiv were expecting earnings per share of $3.08.

    Net sales rose 32.7% to $37.5 billion, beating expectations of $34.96 billion. Global same-store sales surged 31% for the quarter, and online sales grew by 27%. More than half of digital orders were fulfilled through stores.

    This is the first quarter that the retailer is facing year-over-year comparisons to its business during lockdowns. A year ago, its first-quarter same-store sales grew 6.4%. Home Depot was classified as an essential retailer, accelerating sales for the company’s do-it-yourself supplies as consumers tackled new projects while stuck at home.

    A booming housing market has also helped fuel growth, although soaring lumber prices and higher interest rates have dampened sales of newly built homes in recent months.

    “The current shortage of new housing clearly is helping to drive improvements in the home values, which is a good thing for spending in the home,” CEO Craig Menear said on the conference call.

    For the company’s first quarter this year, it reported 447.2 million customer transactions, up 19.3% from a year earlier. Consumers were also spending more during their visits. Average ticket rose 10.3% to $82.37.

    Some of that increase in consumer spending could be tied to higher prices. For example, the price for a sheet of oriented strand board lumber has quadrupled over the last year, according to executives, but demand has kept pace. Menear said that the supply chain bottleneck is in saw mills, where cutting capacity hasn’t caught up with demand.

    “We don’t see a lot of capacity coming online, so we’re probably not going to see a lot of finished lumber product in distribution, so as soon as that product hits our stores, it sells,” he said.

    Consumers also had more cash in their pockets, thanks to stimulus checks from the federal government. However, executives said that it was too difficult to quantify the checks, most of which were sent to consumers in March.

    Home Depot hasn’t released an outlook for fiscal 2021. Last quarter, it cited the uncertainty caused by the pandemic.

    “Fiscal 2021 is off to a strong start as we continue to build on the momentum from our strategic investments and effectively manage the unprecedented demand for home improvement projects,
    ” Menear said in a statement.

    MY COMMENT

    I LOVE to see that half of digital orders are being picked up in the stores. NO DOUBT.....when someone goes to the store to pick up an order there is a significant chance that they will buy additional items while in the store.

    These are MONSTER EARNINGS. AND.....with what is going on in the housing markets they are going to make a TON of money over the next year.

    The fact that the stock is down on this sort of earnings report is simply INSANITY. There are some really STRANGE behaviors going on in the investing world when this sort of report and many of the others we saw this quarter are totally DISRESPECTED. They just about DOUBLED their NET EARNINGS from a year earlier........$4.15BILLION versus $2.25BILLION. Same store sales up by....31%......online by.....27%.....OUTRAGEOUS numbers.

    I dont know if this is some sort of indication of DISTORTION in the investing markets....but what we are seeing with great earnings being totally ignored this year is NOT right and NOT normal. I dont care how much anyone might use the excuse that it was anticipated.....according to the analyst estimates....this was NOT expected. In the SHORT TERM.....we are seeing the markets DISCONNECTED from REALITY....in favor of tabloid stories of DRAMA, FEAR, and SENSATIONALISM. We see the daily focus on MUSK and his tweets on CRYPTO and other tabloid JUNK. I am guessing that what we are seeing NOW in the business media and investing world is a PREVIEW of social and cultural changes that are creeping into our society. Time will tell if this escalates......or......is a temporary situation.

    BUT....I am NOT complaining....this company is KICKING ASS.....and I will GLADLY continue to be a long term investor in the business.
     
  15. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    Speaking of taxes... we had MANY deductibles this year, not sure if it’s because of covid or not, also, as jwalker said we DID miss 2 stimulus checks so they got taken off our balance, and the icing on the cake is that we didn’t have to account to OH state tax since we made less than 250k here in 2020 and according to OH that is the threshold we have to pass in order to pay any income tax generated from OH..... and last, looks like we’re getting a break on our property tax next year in NY which is WELL overdue
    That’s it... no more tax talks here for me
     
  16. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    I would LOVE to get in on HD... the company is expected to do well and it will especially now with this TITANIC resurgence in home buying which will require a ton of home improvement work and of course tools & material. It’s a bit too high for me to get in now, but watching it closely
     
  17. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I like the analysis in this little article.....I will not paste it since it is LONG and DRY....but it does have some good analysis.

    Weekly Market Pulse: Bonds Didn’t Get The Inflation Memo

    https://alhambrapartners.com/2021/05/16/weekly-market-pulse-bonds-didnt-get-the-inflation-memo/

    I will also not post this one.......I dont want to focus too much on Tesla....but it is interesting. Going to be an epic battle between Tesla and the shorts going forward. There are lots of additional articles with more detail on this story on the various financial and investing sites.

    Prophetic investor from 'The Big Short' is betting against Tesla

    https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/18/investing/tesla-michael-burry-big-short/index.html
     
  18. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I like this little article on the tax consequences of using CRYPTO to.....buy things. If you have a gain every time you buy something using CRYPTO...you are creating a tax consequence by triggering a capital gain. What a tax nightmare.......and.....a big hit when you are paying sales tax plus capital gains tax on a purchase.

    Crypto Tax Day Cometh
    What better way to celebrate Tax Day than to look at cryptocurrency tax quirks?

    https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/marketminder/crypto-tax-day-cometh

    "The Treasury wants a slice of your dogecoin gains.

    That is right, today is Tax Day, and if you sold bitcoin or any of the 10,000-plus other cryptocurrencies in existence for a profit last year, Uncle Sam wants YOU … to pony up. One might think this should go without saying, but apparently crypto tax compliance is so spotty that the IRS has issued summons to two crypto exchanges, requiring them to turn over customer records in hopes of catching folks who “forgot” to voluntarily declare transactions to the IRS. Now, we are sure all of our dear readers are fine, upstanding citizens whose tax reporting and paying is above reproach. That includes even the (likely small) percentage who dabble in bitcoin, et al. But given the ongoing crypto frenzy, we think a quick look at the complex tax treatment is in order, because even well-intended people might end up as accidental tax evaders if they aren’t careful.

    Much of the complexity stems from the IRS’s decision to treat cryptocurrencies as property, rendering them subject to capital gains taxes. In our view, this should be a primary consideration on anyone’s pro/con list when they consider buying a cryptocurrency, particularly if part of your thesis is that cryptocurrencies are the future of money.

    When you buy something with normal money, like dollars or pounds, the only tax you pay is sales tax. When you pay with bitcoin, it is quite different. A payment is a disposition—aka, selling your bitcoins. That means—you guessed it—your transaction is subject to capital gains taxes. It wouldn’t surprise us if this, not environmental concerns, were really behind Tesla chief Elon Musk’s widely discussed decision to stop accepting bitcoin as payment for cars. Not just because it would add tax headaches for customers, but because every transaction would complicate the company’s own taxes—each one would add a new lot with a different cost basis to Tesla’s own bitcoin stake. Have fun calculating that tax bill.

    Considering one of the most prominent questions on IRS Form 1040 aims to discover all taxable crypto transactions, you might think we are stating the obvious. But the IRS still wins the gold medal for unnecessary confusion, so the relevant question reads: “At any time during 2020, did you receive, sell, send, exchange, or otherwise acquire any financial interest in any virtual currency?” We can kinda see how someone who bought a car with bitcoin would see that question and think, “Does this apply to me? I didn’t sell my bitcoins on an exchange. I didn’t swap them for dogecoins. I didn’t send one to my aunt for her birthday.” If the form actually, clearly stipulated that paying for goods or services was a taxable transaction, we reckon there would be a lot less confusion—both in the world of tax compliance and about cryptocurrencies themselves. Then again, that could create a scramble to comply.

    The other obvious solution here is to require cryptocurrency exchanges to file 1099s and report to the IRS, akin to traditional US brokerage houses. But that is a matter for the relevant parties, not your friendly MarketMinder editors.

    Regardless, if we ran the world, cryptocurrencies would be called cryptocommodities. Then maybe people considering them would have a more sound understanding of what they are buying—speculative securities, not money. We aren’t inherently against them, mind you, but we are 100% in favor of investors making fully informed decisions—and staying off the Taxman’s naughty list."

    MY COMMENT

    SCARY STUFF......and I have not thought about this before. If I spend $1000 in dollars on a purchase.....ok...I pay sales tax. I spend $1000 of bitcoin on a purchase.....I pay sales tax and trigger a capital gains transaction. A total nightmare as the article point sout for a business accepting bitcoin for every little transaction.
     
  19. Bigmalx

    Bigmalx Member

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    Good morning Mr. WXYZ, I have a question for you. Do you think these stocks would work well in a traditional IRA. I will be rolling over my TSP into an IRA, and will be investing those funds myself. I also wanted individual stocks and was doing my due diligence, and wanted some suggestions. Anyone please feel free to comment. Oh yeah, I have about another 10 year horizon. Thanks.
     
  20. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    The....irrelevant.....economic news of the day. GOOD news for those that already own a home....especially in the HOT areas of the country......less supply....higher prices.

    US home construction falls a surprise 9.5% in April

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-home-construction-falls-surprise-125416949.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "U.S. home construction fell a surprisingly sharp 9.5% in April and economists attributed that partially builders to who delayed projects because of a surge in lumber prices and other supply constraints.

    The April decline left construction at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.57 million units, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. That was down from a rate of 1.73 million units in March, which had been the best showing since the peak of the housing boom in 2006.

    Applications for building permits, considered a good sign of future activity, rose 0.3% in April to an annual rate of 1.76 million units, a good sign that the April dip in construction will be temporary.

    Economists said the April dip is consistent with reports projects delayed by soaring lumber prices and snarled supply chains that have made it difficult to get products like appliances.

    The price of lumber alone has added $35,872 to the price of an average single-family home, according to the National Association of Home Builders. Part of those increases are new border taxes imposed by the Trump administration in a trade dispute with Canada. There was also a temporary shut-down in production when the pandemic hit a year ago.

    Even with the higher prices, economists expect housing, one of the stand-out performers in last year's pandemic, will continue to show strength in 2021.

    “Strong demand, a need for inventory and homebuilder optimism will support housing starts over the rest of 2021, while record-high lumber prices and supply chain bottlenecks may act as headwinds,” said Nancy Vanden Houten, lead economist at Oxford Economics.

    She predicted housing construction would hit 1.6 million units this year, up from 1.38 million last year. That would be the best annual showing since 2006.

    The weakness in April reflected a 13.4% drop in construction starts for single-family homes, which declined to an annual rate of 1.09 million units. Construction of apartments with five units or more rose by 4% to 470,000 units.

    The April decline in construction was led by a 34.% fall in the Midwest followed by an 11.5% drop in the South. Construction rose 9% in the West and was up 6.2% in the Northeast."

    MY COMMENT

    I am not sure the construction industry has the ability to ramp up home construction. I am sure there are significant LABOR issues. I am sure there are significant issues of build-able lots and property. BUT.....this is "economic" data and is likely to be generally....IGNORED as usual.
     

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