It is all about....CRYPTO.....at the moment. AND....I believe the losses and volatility in CRYPTO this week is impacting the stock markets. At the moment....Bitcoin is DOWN 35% from its May high.......on the about May 12th. ETH is DOWN about 42% from its May high....... earlier this month. HERE is a taste of the action TODAY....yes...just today. Bitcoin Whipsaws Investors With Same-Day Plunge, Rally of 30% https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-erases-gains-since-elon-055028824.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "A 31% plunge in the morning. A 33% surge in the afternoon. Such was the wild ride Bitcoin took investors on Wednesday, lopping off billions in value before comments from some prominent proponents helped propel it on a torrid rebound. The extreme price swings in an asset known for its turbulence caused outages on major crypto exchanges and dominated chatter on Wall Street. The tumult elicited a tweet from Elon Musk that implied Tesla Inc. wasn’t among the sellers, while Cathie Wood said her monitors flashed a “capitulation” that put the digital token “on sale.” Justin Sun, a tech entrepreneur who founded the cryptocurrency platform Tron, tweeted that he bought $152 million in Bitcoin for around $37,000 a coin. Down to within a whisker of $30,000 just after 9 a.m. in New York, the coin pared its loss to 7% and periodically topped $40,000 again in the afternoon. It resumed declines into the next session and was trading around $35,500 as of 8:57 a.m. in Hong Kong on Thursday. Ether, the second-biggest coin, sank more than 40% Wednesday before cutting that nearly in half, and ended down 26%. It was down as much as 15% on Thursday. “The history of these assets has been littered with aggressive rallies and sickening selloffs,” said Stephane Ouellette, chief executive and co-founder of FRNT Financial. Rarely do they happen in a single session. The volatility dominated Wall Street on a day when stocks and commodities were also under pressure and the Federal Reserve was set to release minutes from its latest meeting. Frantic selling sparked outages on some of the biggest exchanges, from Coinbase Global Inc. to Binance. #Cryptotrading was trending on Twitter, where critics and fans alike were in a tither over the rout. Tesla CEO Musk touched off the wild moves last week. Bitcoin plunged when he announced the carmaker wouldn’t take it as a payment, but then reversed when he said the company had no plans to sell its corporate crypto holdings. He seemed to imply in a tweet Wednesday that Tesla is not selling into the rout. Volatility erupted in crypto-land last week when Musk retracted plans to accept Bitcoin for his company’s cars. Selling resumed over the weekend when the mercurial CEO seemed to suggest Tesla might want to sell its corporate holdings, but reversed after he tweeted that the carmaker had no plans to do so. A statement on the People’s Bank of China’s WeChat on Tuesday reiterating that digital tokens can’t be used as a form of payment added to the selloff. While all were proximate causes for the rout, nothing could explain the frantic rout Wednesday morning, when the coin dropped thousands of dollars in price in a matter of minutes. Selling gave way to more selling as investors lured into crypto in search of a quick buck bolted for the exits. The selling accelerated when Bitcoin fell below its average price for the past 200 days. Chart-watchers pointed to key technical indicators as the coin sold off. Bitcoin bounced off the $30,000 level and many are waiting to see if it can break back above its 200-day moving average line. If it doesn’t, it could potentially retest Wednesday’s lows. Cryptocurrency-linked stocks also dropped, with shares of Coinbase falling near 13% at one point and Marathon Digital Holdings Inc. slumping as much as 16%. Bitcoin had embarked on a multi-month rally following Tesla’s February announcement, soaring to its $64,870 peak, in large part due to the company’s embrace. Wiped Out At the time, Tesla’s acceptance was hailed as a watershed moment for the coin, with many in the crypto world seeing it as yet another step in its evolution. All that’s been wiped out following Musk’s head-spinning tweets. “Realistically, it is not the first time Elon Musk’s tweets have been erratic and, frankly, wrong,” said Ulrik Lykke, executive director at crypto hedge fund ARK36. “The crypto markets are extremely emotionally driven and their participants are prone to overreacting to events they perceive as negative.”" MY COMMENT As to the end sentence above.......YA THINK? WOW....down and up 30% in a single day. YOU can always count on our friend....China.
AND....as an example of supply and demand DISRUPTION and how it progresses.....or for those contemplating building a house: Lumber Futures’ Rout Deepens to 27%, Hinting at Rally’s End https://finance.yahoo.com/news/plunge-lumber-contracts-signals-turning-165920128.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "While builders are still paying record-high cash prices for lumber, the futures market is signaling that the historic rally could be coming to a close. The lumber contract for July delivery fell $63 on Tuesday, the maximum permitted by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, with the price sinking to $1,264 per 1,000 board feet. That’s the seventh straight session of falling prices for the futures contract, marking the longest streak of declines since September. Lumber’s most-active futures contract is down 27% from its May 10 peak of $1,733.50, a level more than four times higher than prices a year ago. While the drop suggests market weakness, with traders saying the preceding rally went too high, builders who need to buy wood for summer projects are still paying top dollar due to strong demand and tight supplies at sawmills. Higher costs and limited availability of building materials have halted some projects, according to the National Association of Home Builders. Demand for wood remains robust among retailers including Home Depot Inc., which is reporting strong sales in lumber products as well as across its home-improvement business. “We compare it to a storm environment where literally as soon as you bring it in, it’s selling,” Home Depot Chief Financial Officer Richard McPhail said Tuesday in an interview. “We’re really just focused on making sure we stay in stock and making sure we have the appropriate level of staff to serve our customers. The market will go where it goes.” The Fastmarkets Random Lengths U.S. Framing Lumber Composite Index soared to a record $1,495 per 1,000 board feet on Friday, the most recent pricing. That is up 6% from the week prior and nearly four times the price of a year ago. A composite index for oriented strand board, a plywood substitute product, jumped 3% from the previous week to $1,426 per 1,000 square feet, five times more than a year ago. Lowering Prices “The mills have this order file where they’ve sold the physical production through the middle of June,” said Westline Capital Strategies Inc. Chief Executive Officer Greg Kuta, whose Ohio-based firm specializes in lumber trading strategies. “They don’t have to come to the open market here and take counteroffers on their physical cash for at least two to three weeks.” While futures are leading the way down, Kuta doesn’t expect the cash price of immediately available lumber to likely follow until mid-June at the earliest since demand from builders remains strong. The futures and cash markets will likely converge two to four weeks before the July contract expires on the 15th of that month, he said. Mills could start lowering prices by the end of this week though such a drop won’t be as steep as with futures contracts, according to Brian Leonard, an analyst for RCM Alternatives in Chicago. “Futures are getting driven down right now by computerized trading and other platforms not related to the physical product, so it may end up going lower than the real market needs to go,” he said. “The mills know there’s a lot more buying than needs to happen.” He expects the cash market will fall to a new base level in June and trigger more buying, while futures could head back up by August. Leonard said he has seen this pattern repeat in his 35 years of trading in the market. “The market is digesting some very high levels right now,” he said. “I don’t know if we’ll make a new high, but I think we’ll take a shot at it again.”" MY COMMENT Prices go up and down....especially at the re-opening from the closure of the entire economy and for products the come from outside the country. Many factors are involved and as we are seeing with lumber futures.....they are often.....TRANSITORY. I suspect we will see these.....ROLLING......price increases and supply/demand distortions WASH THROUGH the economy for the next six to twelve months. The WORD OF THE YEAR........DISTORTION.
OK....may as well get the irrelevant government economic data out of the way early in the day. No one cares about this info at the moment.....apparently. Jobless claims fall by more than expected, hit fresh pandemic low at 444,000 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jobless-claims-for-the-week-ended-may-16-2021-123115352.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Workers filing for new unemployment benefits fell to a new pandemic-era low in the latest week, hitting their lowest levels in more than a year as the labor market continued to heal from the worst days of the COVID-19 outbreak. The Department of Labor released its weekly report on new jobless claims Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main metrics expected from the report, compared to consensus data compiled by Bloomberg: Initial jobless claims, week ended May 15: 444,000 vs. 450,000 expected and an upwardly revised 478,000 during prior week Continuing claims, week ended May 8: 3.751 million vs. 3.62 million expected and 3.655 million during prior week Thursday's data was the lowest level for initial claims since March 2020, when the data checked in at 256,000, according to Labor Department data. Since the beginning of the year, weekly jobless claims have tumbled by nearly half, and have fallen precipitously from their pandemic-era peak of more than 6 million last year. The Labor Department said weekly unemployment claims are at their lowest levels in more than a year. The 4-week moving average was 504,750, tumbling by over 30,000 from the previous week and also the weakest level since March 14, 2020, with the previous week's number revised up slightly, to 535,250. Steady improvement over the last several months — amplified by the COVID-19 mass vaccination effort and the relaxation of lockdowns across the country, have created more positions while sparking an increasingly acute labor shortage. Companies have had to hike wages in order to entice badly needed workers as demand surges, stoking a furious debate over supplemental unemployment benefits that critics contend have become a barrier to hiring. Prior to the pandemic, new jobless claims averaged just over 200,000 per week throughout 2019. "What a journey [this] has been," said Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate. "Economic momentum is now sufficiently robust as to be the source of reopening strains, compared to the pandemic-caused loss of activity experienced a year ago. Even so, the disappointing April payrolls picture has, at the very least, prompted a re-assessment and questioning whether matching millions of available jobs with the unemployed is more difficult than imagined." Last month, employers created a robust 266,000 jobs — but that figure was far below Wall Street's aggressive estimates. The disappointing figure tempered expectations over the U.S. rebound, and also led to a reassessment of how generous unemployment may have created a shortage of labor." MY COMMENT The slightly positive "NEW" claims data is not a big shock or much to hang your hat on. At this point EVERYONE that wants to is ALREADY on unemployment so there is not a lot of new claims capacity left. The figure that......REALLY MATTERS.....is the continuing claims which came in HIGHER than expected.....and....the UPWARD revision of the prior week. BUT......does anyone really care about any of this data anymore? It does not seem like it. The government just like the FED is now speaking and putting out so much information on the economy.....EVERY DAY.....it has lost all meaning. Data overload.....it gets to the point where is is just background noise....when it is being released....EVERY DAY.
Little to NOTHING going on in the news today that is relevant to investors. The articles I am seeing are simply a RE-HASH of all the various topics that have been BEATEN TO DEATH over the past few weeks. NOTHING.....is new or changed. Stocks will just have to BUMBLE along on their own today and tomorrow. At least we are starting the day in the green....especially the NASDAQ.....which is showing very strong early in the day numbers.
Some simple but important lessons in this little article.....especially for the younger and newer investors that are learning about the markets in the current media and trading environment. Even for older and more experienced investors......the most DIFFICULT thing is......recognize the power of SIMPLICITY. Run Your Race: Money wisdom from Vanguard's Jack Brennan https://finance.yahoo.com/news/run-race-money-wisdom-vanguards-040603080.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "When it comes to financial advice, you could do worse than listen to someone who helped steer more money than almost anyone else on the planet. When he was chairman and CEO of investment giant Vanguard Group, Jack Brennan oversaw a company that has since grown to over $7 trillion in assets. That torch has since been passed – first to Bill McNabb, then to current chair and CEO Tim Buckley – but Brennan still has plenty of wisdom to share in his new book “More Straight Talk on Investing,” a follow-up to the 2002 edition. An avid marathoner, Brennan sat down with Reuters to talk about how to pace yourself for the long-distance race of financial security. Q: A lot has happened since you wrote your previous book, so did your advice change at all? A: What has changed for investors in the last 20 years has been very beneficial. The cost of investing has been falling dramatically, which is a critical part of being successful. There have been a lot of great product enhancements, like the ubiquity of ETFs and target-date funds. And the choice of how to get financial advice today is completely different. Everything is lower-cost and more available. Q: Investors since 2000 have gone through so many different types of markets – how should they navigate all those ups and downs? A: It comes down to simple stuff. Do your homework, be disciplined, be skeptical in avoiding fads, keep learning. Those are four elements I tell people all the time. Q: Many young investors these days are getting market exposure by buying individual stocks on apps – does that give you pause? A: I worry about it a lot. It’s like March Madness on TV. I don’t get it, personally. If you want to speculate on some individual stocks, fine, but your core serious money needs to be in a diversified program. It’s very hard to beat the stock market. There’s an old joke that the quickest way to make a small fortune is to start with a large one, and then trade a lot. Q: What advice do you have on avoiding classic investor biases and mistakes? A: We are all subject to emotions when it comes to investing, so there are a couple of things that are very important. One is to tune out all the noise. You shouldn’t really care about what is happening today, or this month, or even this year. I’m 66, and I hope I still have a 30-year time horizon. The second thing is that once a year, you should reaffirm what you’re trying to accomplish. Think about the issue in buckets: Short-term resources, intermediate goals, long-term goals. Once a year, maybe on New Year’s Day, sit down and look at it all. You don’t even have to do anything about it, but stay engaged. Q: The market is around all-time highs, so any thoughts on where we stand right now? A: The market is fully valued, in my opinion. I think we will come strongly out of this pandemic, and there are a lot of reasons why equities are still an attractive asset class for most people. You also enjoy the growth of those underlying companies and valuations. If you had told me 11 years ago where the market is now, I might have said watch out, but there are justifiable reasons for it. Q: An extended bear market will come eventually, so how should investors prepare for that? A: It’s important to understand the role a bear market plays, which is to take all the excess out of valuations. It’s also a great chance, particularly for younger investors, to put their money to work at lower valuations. Go back and look at any period of time, even investors through the Great Depression, and you see that you will be rewarded over time. Q: In coming years we could see the greatest wealth transfer in human history, so will young investors be able to handle that? A: Boomers may not want to pass on quite yet. But if you do inherit money, you shouldn’t just take somebody else’s advice. You need to be a knowledgeable consumer yourself. That’s the big opportunity for Gen X and Millennials: To be smarter about financial issues than my generation was." MY COMMENT I always try to stay as SIMPLE as possible in my investing. If you read anything about very successful people and especially investors...most of what they say seems so simple and so common sense. that is because it ACTUALLY....is. One thing about this pandemic and work from home.....I am AMAZED at the seeing the home environment of all the so called EXPERTS that you see on TV every day. OBVIOUSLY many of them are NOT anywhere near as successful as they seem or claim to be. I see some guy on TV giving financial and investing advice from a tiny studio apartment with little to no furnishings.....all the time. It is very interesting to me to see the environment where many of these people work and live. It does NOT really give me much confidence that they REALLY know anything.....or....at least.....that they are able to ACTUALLY put to real live use any of the information they are spouting on TV. OBVIOUSLY.....many of them are MINIMALISTS.....OR......are ACTUALLY NOT very successful. I dont expect or care if everyone is not living in some HUGE mansion....but a successful person being put out there as an expert and role model.....SHOULD have.....some BASIC trappings of success.....IF...they are actually successful at what they are SPOUTING.
In a way it would make sense that the government will amp its rhetoric towards Wall Street and cause panic with investors just to get all those dumb gamblers to quit their new destructive hobby and help themselves and our country to go back to work
Last night's post ......................... Missed out on the dip buying today, was well over a point down, and thought what looks good out there ? I come back later and most of the markets had recovered , SH#T There’s an old joke that the quickest way to make a small fortune is to start with a large one, and then trade a lot. ME: I like that , WXYZ, glad someone else noticed that too, during a lot of those "Interviews" I found myself looking more at the persons surroundings than listening to what they said. Some had some posters on walls and looked like it was shot from a closet. And the one's that had written books always had copy prominently displayed.
Zukodany, in regards to a post you made the other day, on shhhhhh inflation Would it be OK with you if we refer to it as the "The "I" word "
That’s what I ALWAYS tell my friends when they tout that word... OH NO YOU DIDNT SAY THE I WORD DID YOU??? (Extending my fist in the air)
All aspects of media is a total clown show. I have not had cable for over 20 years, best life choice I ever made. I see clips on youtube when I research a subject and THEY ARE A TOTAL JOKE. Most smart people have went silent, and I can't blame them in are current culture. Happy Investing!
I know.....it is an EYEOPENER to see someones ACTUAL environment. The REALITY versus the fantasy. The other side of the same coin.....the people that have ALL.....or at least some.....of the trappings.....usually some expensive car......BUT are financed to the hilt and with all the payments and debt NEVER save anything. UNFORTUNATELY...those giving all the advice or being held out as experts.....often fall into the two extremes. The person being interviewed on TV....should....be the guy living a reasonable life style that managed to build up some good wealth over a lifetime of investing with reason and common sense. In other words...the person that is an ACTUAL role model....for the average person.
JUST so I dont seem like too much of a SNOB on here......but to give some concept of my reality.....I will post a photo of my little summer place........175,000 sq ft. We love the simplistic charm of the place when we want to get away from it all and put in some quality family time away from all the hustle and bustle.
What a crazy nasdaq rally today.. if I was to compare last years market to today’s... no words. A whole different ball game. Last year when we entered the bear market it was OBVIOUS and pronounced. Even the year before when there was a lot of volatility during the tariff talks with China... many days we’re swinging up and down but not to such a WIDE extent. All of this volatility going on since the year started is just NOTHING to write home about. It’s based on NOTHING and it means NOTHING. the only thing I learned really quick this year is to NOT look for dips this year. There are none and judging by the way things are for an extended period of time, there will be none either.... buy the dip in one stock, watch the other rebound, look into one sector, watch the other rotate. Rinse repeat. Nooooo thank you
WXYZ, After you take a relaxing 8 hour spin mowing your lawn , can you come and mow mine too ? And this time finish mowing on the edge and don't leave a random mower track down the middle of my lawn
hey, @zukodany , in case you missed it the house passed an anti-asian hate bill today, you are not legally allowed to hate your wife. so, be nice, dude.
