i suspect it'll be like this up until at least wednesday's fomc... i'm going to be super curious to hear if the FED mentions the big "T" word at all in this meeting. of course "T" = taper if not, then wow buckle the heck up. i suspect the market may take that a bigly green light for a summer RYFOR (rip your face off rally). the bull case for me is that the FED doesn't even acknowledge the recent data, and doesn't mention taper, or the path to taper, etc. in that case, then as crazy as this may sound, i could see a pretty epic summer rally. upwards of 500 to 750 handles higher in the spuz from here. Pretty outrageous, and a bigly reach I know.. But, that's just my 2c on the zero mention of taper scenario. more likely scenario i think would be some talk of taper (or at least the path forward in future meetings, etc) in which case i see the majors just chopping around mostly, until the next big thing, like the upcoming earnings season. of course, all of this is providing that there are no totally out of left field unexpected black swan events, which could obviously derail any of this, at least for the very short-term
interesting reversals in the yellow and black gold today. thinking crude needs a bit of a rest here after a pretty monster run the last few. not sure if we've seen bottom on the yellow and pm's yet, albeit off the extreme AM lows. bond yields also caught a bid today. wednesday will be a tell.
A late day rally pushing SPX into green Growth has done better than value lately, I like it more when growth stocks do better than value
just saw this tweet hit my twitter news feed a bit ago ... interesting move. i wonder how much cryptos gets credit for something like this materializing?
ye, looks like a pause ahead of JP's presser tomorrow should be interesting to see what comes (or doesn't) out of that. i'm on a discord server rn where the large consensus has it that there won't even be a single mention of that "t" word (tapering). that imo is kinda yuuuge. if that is indeed the case, then i really stick to what i said in a post here yesterday. think you could potentially see a pretty sizable rip higher in the majors this summer, as that would signal a green light for investors that the status quo is here to say for a long while still lol. we shall see!
Growth is weak today, I guess all about the FED tomorrow. If the FED causes the bonds yields to surge again then I can see growth stocks getting hammered a little bit
black gold now sitting at close to 3 year highs here ... not sure how much is left in the tank here (no pun intended) admittedly i thought some pause would be incoming at around that 70 even level, but it's just kept going i would be hella impressed if this were to take out the trump presidency highs at around i think 77 ... still thinking a pause/pull is overdue here imo
just a quick PSA in here that we have the fomc meeting announcement out today @ 2pm eastern time, with the Powell presser at 2:30pm eastern. while the overall consensus is looking for no change in policy (obviously), people will be tuning in to hear the verbiage, as far as "tapering" is concerned. a good majority of people i've spoken with thinks there will be no talk of tapering at today's meeting, but i think that could go either way here. while i'm also siding more on the no mention of the "T" word at today's meeting, i would not be surprised if it is brought up today. my market scenario goes like this: taper talks at today's meeting = pretty neg market reaction of up to -2% down on the majors. no taper talks at today's meeting + reiterating "transitory" = sideways to green on the majors. no taper talks + no acknowledgement of the recent data = possible RYFOR (rip your face off rally) on the majors. i'm thinking the 2nd one of the 3 above. if true, then i think we could be set up for a pretty choppy summer ahead. there's really only the upcoming quarterly earnings season coming up and the monthly jobs & inflation #'s. unless you guys are seeing other market moving events in the near future. seems it could be a rather mundane summer ahead, of course absent any totally out of left field black swan even that should surprise everyone and their uncles. we shall see! sidenote: as i've said in the past before, i think the fed's Jackson Hole meeting in August will be way more intriguing than this one. just my own worthless 2c here. ;p
looks like crude set a new record here (or at least data going back to when i was born lol), but with today's higher intraday high in wti, marks 14 consecutive trading days of higher intraday highs in oil, which is the longest since data going back to at least '83
man, that was quite the market reaction post-fomc yesterday and when i say market, i'm not necessarily speaking of the indices here (while yes, they did some some reaction too, albeit much more milder than things like the below). for example in the bond market, prices down = yields up. that's quite a notable move there! the dollar def caught a bigly bid after the announcement. pretty much sending all the majors pairs lower against the greenback, which shows this wasn't just 1 or 2 currencies that send the dollar higher, this was genuinely a bull move in the dxy. and finally, pm's, wow did they ever take it hard post announcement! been a while since i've seen a synchronized move down this much like this across the board
Dow Jones and Transports are pointing the way down. On a related note Chinese stocks (KWEB) have been having a poor month, so wouldn't be surprised if we pull back. Been watching TAL and EDU get murdered. Fear and Greed [edited typo] indicator is nearing 40, looking for a lower reading.
June OpX is this week. Next week after it is usually bad (since 1982...there's that year again). From the stock market almanac guy: https://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/...e-quarterly-options-expiration-week-and-after It is really red since 1990.
Dow has been having a bad month. QQQ has been alright, but it could turn down. SPX going to fill that gap around 4020?
