The Long Term Investor

WELL......a really pretty day in the markets today. I got beat by the SP500 by .50%.....but I dont care. The gains were BIG enough that I was STILL able to make some really good money today. My LOSERS today were AMAZON and NVIDIA.

 

This has got to be ANTI-INFLATIONARY.......a big company cutting their......AMERICAN....... work force by 25-50% over the next three years.

Exxon to cut U.S. workforce by up to 10% annually - Bloomberg News

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exxon-cut-u-workforce-10-200716753.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Top U.S. oil producer Exxon Mobil Corp is preparing to cut its U.S. office workforce by between 5% and 10% every year for the next three to five years, Bloomberg News reported on Monday citing people familiar with the matter.

The job cuts will target the lowest-rated employees relative to peers as part of a performance assessment program and will therefore not be classified as layoffs, the report https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-cull-u-s-white-collar-ranks-by-as-much-as-10 said."

MY COMMENT

This sort of thing is one BIG reason I have ZERO concern about inflation.......and......actual concern about deflation.....at least as a citizen. We have been seeing this sort of CONTINUOUS corporate employee cutting......due to technology....for many years now. Going forward......this is going to ESCALATE.

We are in a......golden era.....right now for employees and job seekers. BUT....going forward....we will quickly return to the era of BIG job cuts. Add in a global work force.......working from outside the USA.....and....we are likely to end up right back in the deflationary environment that we have been in for the past 12 years. The EU and the rest of the world has been experiencing a mild deflationary depression for many, many, years now.

As a shareholder of AMERICAN businesses....this technology driven gain in productivity is GOLDEN......for the country and workers...not so much.

 

Looks like we might be in for another good day tomorrow. I dont really see anything standing in the way of a really nice week for investors.

Stock market news live updates: Stock futures rise to extend earlier gains

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-june-22-2021-221405154.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Stock futures opened slightly higher Monday evening to extend earlier gains, with equities recovering from concerns over the path forward for monetary policy last week.

Contracts on the S&P 500 edged higher. Dow futures also advanced, after the 30-stock index jumped by the most since March earlier during the day.

Monday's session saw traders pile back into some of the cyclical areas of the stock market that came under the most pressure last week, when the Federal Reserve's increased inflation outlook raised concerns that higher prices would ultimately weigh on the economic recovery. However, according to some traders, now that the Fed has signaled it would move to stem fast-rising inflation, some of the longer-term allure of the cyclical trade may be lifted.

"I think the question is going to be here is, we were priced very dovishly going into the Fed. We appear to now be priced quite hawkishly. Clearly, the right outcome is somewhere in the middle," Stuart Kaiser, UBS head of equity derivatives research, told Yahoo Finance. "So will energy benefit from a rebalancing of those expectations? Potentially. I think right now though, what we're seeing is people are readjusting their expectations, a little bit less excited about those, quote, unquote, 'reflation' sectors and maybe focused a little more on tech at the moment."

Others offered a similar view.

"One of the things we've been watching very closely is which way inflationary pressure would tip some of the growth stocks," Ann Berry, Wheelhouse chief investment officer, told Yahoo Finance on Monday. "What we've seen today, which is the upward movement again on the Nasdaq, the upward movement again on some of the key technology stocks ... is very much in keeping with what we would have expected – which is, as folks look where to put their capital in a rising inflation environment, this return to growth feels natural."

"We're really looking now as people come out with announcements on what the second half of the year looks like, we're looking at what new business models are likely to persist going into this post-COVID environment," she added.

With second-quarter earnings season ramping up over the next couple of weeks, investors are also gearing up for a potentially repeat performance of strong corporate profit results, with earnings turbo-charged by vaccinated, savings-laden consumers eager to go out and spend. So far, analysts are looking for S&P 500 earnings to grow by 61.9% year-on-year in aggregate, according to FactSet data – an estimate UBS's Kaiser said may still be "need to be revised higher."

"I continue to believe that earnings are going to outperform. Expectations are getting better and better managed. But if you look at the blowout first quarter we had, I think there's enough momentum to continue that, which are going to make stocks an interesting investment throughout the year," Mitch Roschelle, Macro Trends Advisors LLC Founding Partner, told Yahoo Finance. "There likely will be a correction somewhere during the year, because there always is, but right now going into earnings season, I see tailwinds and not headwinds." "

MY COMMENT

Could not agree more with the closing couple of paragraphs in this little article. We are potentially looking at a BIG second half of the year.....with....earnings continuing to be OUTSTANDING. I also agree that it is likely that some time this year we will see a correction.....but....that is just part of the normal market cycle and the reality of investing.

 

I cant ignore the news of the day.....Bitcoin. But.....the media is WAY overplaying the story....it is ALL Bticoin everywhere. This is a very volatile asset. At the moment it is down from the high....at some time in the future....it will be right back at another new high. That is just how it trades.

I am NOT a Bitcoin investor.....but....with the way it is structured.......with a cap on the maximum number of coins that will ever be created.....I would have to say that over the years......that has the potential to be a powerful driver of the coin. The greatest danger......various governments and whatever actions they might take toward Crypto over the coming years.

I......ALSO....hear the POWELL is going to talk today.......why? Do these people need to talk.......EVERY WEEK. Investors and the markets.....DO NOT.....need these people to talk all the time. Somehow we all survived over the years without hearing from the FED.....constantly. I assume it is to congress from what I see.......what a joke.

 

ENOUGH......PLEASE. I know...it will.....never....stop.

U.S. stocks pause for breath after bounce, with all eyes on Fed’s Powell

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/s...eyes-on-feds-powell-11624360464?siteid=yhoof2

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

U.S. stocks were putting in a mixed perforamnce early Tuesday, as investors assessed a sharp rebound in the previous session and awaited congressional testimony by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

On Monday, stocks bounced back sharply from the previous week’s heavy losses, with the Dow advancing 586.89 points, or 1.8%, while the S&P 500 rose 1.4% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.8%.

What’s driving the market?

Powell will testify before the House select subcommittee on the coronavirus pandemic at 2 p.m. Eastern, for his first public appearance since last Wednesday when the Fed chief acknowledged that policy makers had started to discuss the eventual reduction of the Fed’s monthly bond purchases. The Fed last week surprised markets at its policy meeting by revealing policy makers now expect two interest rate hikes by the end of 2023, earlier than previously anticipated.

“We at the Fed will do everything we can to support the economy for as long as it takes to complete the recovery,” Powell said, in prepared testimony released by the subcommittee late Monday.

“Powell reiterated his view that the recent jump in inflation would prove transitory. While such comments seem to have soothed concerns over the Fed’s hawkish tilt, the question is for how long?” said Lukman Otunuga, senior research analyst at FXTM, in a note.

“Given how markets remain highly sensitive to comments from Fed officials and inflation expectations, the next few days promise to be quite eventful for markets with numerous Fed speakers on the roster,” he said.

Investors will hear from other Fed officials before the spotlight falls on Powell. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester is scheduled to deliver a speech to a Norway Central Bank conference at 10:30 a.m. ET, while San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly is slated to talk about climate risk and the Fed in a speech before the Peterson Institute for International Economics at 11 a.m. ET.

Another busy week of initial public offerings is under way, with 17 deals on tap, including at least two expected to raise more than $1 billion.

In U.S. economic data, May existing home sales is due at 10 a.m. Economists look for the annual pace of sales to slow to 5.68 million from 5.85 million in April."

MY COMMENT

GOSH......Powell is going to talk for the first time since.......LAST WEDNESDAY. I bet a lot has changed in those.....THREE....market days. Another bad joke on investors.....these people just can not SHUT UP.......including both sides of Congress.

The other.......non-event....of the day...the real estate data. Since there is NO inventory...the data is worthless and obvious.

The REAL LESSON for today and every day......NONE of this daily stuff matters. This daily "stuff" is now relentless....every day....every week....it never ends. It is a constant disruption and distortion of the short term. We are LUCKY that.....so far.....this constant BLATHER has not impacted the long term market potential and returns.

 

At least NVIDIA has resumed their positive trend....at least so far today. UP $12 so far today....so it has ERASED the loss yesterday and added a few dollars on top of it.

 

I find this little article very interesting. I am NOT going to post the whole thing.....read it if you wish. (there is a tiny bit of mention of the Biden tax policy, but that is not the point of the article) This is a Bloomberg article.

BUT.....even the threat of tax changes can have MAJOR impact on business and the economy. As this article suggests there are going to be a HUGE number of family businesses sold and changed due to threats of tax changes. It is happening NOW and will escalate this year. I suspect that the NEW corporate owners of many of these family businesses will end up WRINGING profits out of the business by increasing productivity....in other words ELIMINATING workers and jobs.

A Record Buyout Is Just the Start as Wealthy Flee U.S. Tax Hike

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/record-buyout-just-start-wealthy-120000843.html

This is the problem with SCREWING with the tax laws...especially CAPITAL GAINS....the people that provide the capital to keep the economy going and provide jobs.....WILL......walk away.

How do I know....because history tells us this WILL happen. AND....on a MICRO level this is what I did MYSELF. When taxes and regulatory fees got too high on MY business......to the point that I was risking my personal assets to run and maintain a business....while my silent partner....GOVERNMENT...took about half the money......I simply made the choice to BAIL. It is a.....very simple....financial calculation....there is a point where government tax and regulatory policy....makes it more attractive to NOT be in business.

My business was very successful......but.......there was no reason to take all the risk and headaches and time involved in running a business....compared to just walking away with my money. Looking back at early retirement at age 49 and the 22 years since......it was a GLORIOUS decision.....for me. I took care of my workers and made sure they got other jobs....because I cared and was a good boss......but my silent partner....BUMMER.

 

I will mention.......

There is......MASSIVE.....content that I......NEVER......post here. Politics, social commentary, culture, history, education policy, taxes, government, etc, etc....CONTENT....that has a HUGE impact on investing and business. I do not ever post it because it is....TOXIC.....in the current world. It will destroy this thread and is KRYPTONITE to any message board.

This thread would be 1000 pages instead of 300 pages......if I was posting the daily stuff in those areas that SEVERELY impact investors, investing, and business. I simply read it.....for myself.....and take it into account.....for myself....in my investing.

I....AM NOT....inviting comment on any of these topics in this thread by doing this post. I am just mentioning to any reader....that this type of information is CRITICAL to any investor.....but....you will NOT see it mentioned on here.

 

WOW.....I do a LOT of daily reading and posting and talk about investing...in general. BUT....I dont look at my account often....because......I have NO intention of doing anything...short term. It sits....and does its thing....by itself.

BUT....I just looked and I am at a significant NEW PERSONAL HIGH today....at least so far. I was surprised. My ONLY holding that was NOT in the green was Google.

HOPEFULLY......we can build on this as the day goes on.

 

LOL....we all know that stock splits are...NEUTRAL EVENTS. BUT...looking at the announcement of the NVIDIA split on May 21.......and the 30 additional shares that I bought that day.....now 35 additional shares.......here is what I see as we move SLOWLY toward the actual split on July 19/20.

The shares are Up by 25% since May 21.....that is a gain of $152 per share......so far. That is what I call....creating shareholder value. The share price on May 21 was $599.....it is now....$751.

I would hate....ACTUALLY LOVE....to see what would happen to AMAZON if they had the GUTS to do a split. I believe that ANY of the major BIG CAP GROWTH stocks that now trade over $200 per share would be SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER....it they did splits to maintain a REALISTIC and AFFORDABLE share price. You know....in the OLD DAYS......before year 2000.....MOST companies would split their stock if the share price got much above about $100 per share.

 

I would....LIKE....Emmets post above 100 times if I could.

 

Ok......sounds good to me and deserved.

 

ANOTHER....big day today. I was all green except for HON today. Plus a good beat of the SP500 by .81%.

This puts me at +11.06% year to date. I am STILL chasing the SP500....which is at +13.06% year to date.