WELL....after one day........earnings are good.......and......the response of the markets in TYPICAL fashion.....is down. Today...Goldman Sacs, down 1.2%, JP Morgan, down 1.5%. In sympathy...two of the banks that report tomorrow....Wells Fargo, down 2% and Citigroup, down 1.5%. Delta airlines also got hammered today....they report tomorrow also. So....not a great start to earnings.....for each of these companies. AND.....lucky us.....the FED....which just CAN NOT shut up....is going to be talking yet again tomorrow at about 12 PM ET...when Powell is once again going to speak. He testifies before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday. AND....YES, once again.....he will speak before the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday. The FED is just......incessant......with the constant talking and releasing of minutes and notes. The economy would be so much better off if they could just......SHUT UP......and go away.
In reference to the college student advice: 1. Don’t buy a new car on credit just cause you get your first real job. Save the money. I drove my first car 9 years and inherited my current vehicle from a family member when they passed away. I have never paid a dollar of interest on a car and hopefully never will. 2. Try to graduate debt free. I will admit I was very lucky to have help paying for college (some not all) and the rest I worked or got scholarships. 3. Get a degree that will actually give you more than a snowballs chance in hell of making a decent living.
How true.....Jwalker. Starting out life after college with no debt is a MASSIVE ADVANTAGE. My family has a tradition that goes back to my kids great great grandfather. It has held for 5 generations....so far. My ancestor put 7 kids through college....five boys and two girls. He lived and worked in an EXTREMELY rural, isolated and poor area. He had a ROUGH start to life...having to run away from an abusive father when he was 14 years old and make his own way as an itinerant farm worker for room and board. He struggled to get himself educated.....and....as a result was a lifelong defender and advocate for education. It was EXTREMELY RARE to have any kid go to college in that time especially girls. He struggled to successfully put ALL of his kids through college but he did it. He formed a PACT/CONTRACT with each kid that he would put them through college with the OBLIGATION that when the time came they had to pay it back by doing the same for their kids. My grandfather, my father, "I", and now my kids were put through college under this same OBLIGATION. My kids KNOW that this is the price to be paid for the FAMILY putting them through college. ALL living generations are responsible for the education of the current generation in our family under this long ago deal. SO.....as a result....we start out life with NO college debt. The current deal is you get a car and your college. From seeing the impact of this deal on my dad, myself, and my kids....it is a HUGE advantage in life.
What a nice open today. We need to see this market strength hold for the day. Here is a nice little article on the inflation numbers. Yes....I know....more inflation talk....how boring. Inside June’s CPI Jump Once again, a few hot categories skewed the headline inflation rate. https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/marketminder/inside-junes-cpi-jump (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Inflation unexpectedly accelerated in June, leaving economists and pundits from coast to coast scrambling to explain the year-over-year CPI inflation rate’s bump from 5.0% in May to 5.4%. After all, consensus expectations were for a deceleration to 4.9% y/y, and CPI’s rise in June 2020 meant the base effect was less of a factor.[ii] Some coverage found the right culprit: a third consecutive jump in used car prices. Other outlets hit on false scapegoats and, in doing so, showed the perils of not looking deep enough at economic data. But from our vantage point, few if any pundits rightly noted that outside of the narrow categories affected by supply shortages and resurgent post-lockdown demand, we actually saw a fair amount of disinflation for the third straight month. In our view, despite the headline jump, this report strikes us as more evidence accelerating inflation is temporary and investors won’t have to reckon with a 1970s repeat. Last year’s lockdowns are still upwardly skewing the year-over-year calculation and will for a few more months. Later this year, as the denominator in the year-over-year comp rises more—reflecting the demand bump from last year’s reopenings—it will probably push the annual inflation rate lower. So here, to strip that out, we will focus on the seasonally adjusted month-over-month inflation rate. That accelerated to 0.9% m/m, defying expectations of 0.5%, which would have been the second straight monthly slowdown.[iii] The biggest single contributor, for the third straight month, was used car and truck prices. Those rose 10.5% m/m, compounding May’s 7.3% and April’s 10.0%.[iv] Transportation services, which includes airfares and car rentals, drove headline prices higher for the third straight month. Hotel accommodations, which shot up 8.8% m/m in April but rose negligibly in May, jumped another 7.9% to contribute almost one-tenth of the headline increase. None of those are terribly surprising, considering all relate to the reopening economy—a combination of tight supply and burgeoning demand. About the only major swing in June was Energy: After detracting from headline inflation slightly in April and May, it made a big contribution in June as gas prices jumped just in time for office workers to rejoin the daily commute and summer travelers to hit the highways. You can see all of this in Exhibit 1. Exhibit 1: Select Contributions to Headline Month-Over-Month Inflation Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, as of 7/13/2021. One item that didn’t boost the inflation rate, contrary to what some pundits argued: rent. Yes, we have all seen the anecdotal reports of soaring rent. But anecdotal evidence writ large isn’t valid. The CPI basket doesn’t just include a handful of apartment units—it gathers data nationwide. Accordingly, the component called “rent of primary residence” rose only 0.2% m/m in each of the past three months, contributing less than 20 basis points (0.2 percentage point) to headline monthly inflation each time. But headlines blamed it anyway because its parent category, “rent of shelter,” accelerated to 0.5% m/m and contributed nearly one-fifth of the total monthly CPI rise.[v] Problem is, that category also includes the aforementioned hotel accommodations. Those were the real culprit, responsible for the vast majority of shelter’s contribution. So those interpreting June’s CPI report as some sort of massive rental boom—and perhaps seeing big dollar signs in REITs as a result—would be advised to always check reporting against the actual data. That is a lesson for all investors. As for inflation fears, consider Exhibit 2, which shows some of the BLS’s “Special Aggregate Indexes.” These show the inflation rate with various volatile and pandemic-skewed components stripped out. As it shows, when you pull these out, you see disinflation across the rest of the CPI basket. Exhibit 2: Stripping Away Pandemic Skew Source: FactSet, as of 7/13/2021. Note, we aren’t dismissing the headline result or arguing any of these special series are somehow the “correct” inflation rate. Rather, we simply think that last set of columns in particular is a decent gauge—for the time being—of the underlying inflation trend. That is, the trend in prices that one could attribute to the supply of money sloshing around in the economy, rather than those skewed by shortages of parts and labor and one-off demand booms. Simply put, broad money supply can’t create semiconductors and ease the shortage of new cars that has people bidding old jalopies sky-high. Used car prices are therefore a signal of a supply problem, not a too much money in the economy problem. It is the categories outside these big oddities, in our view, that are a better reflection of how money supply is impacting prices broadly. That disinflationary trend, in our view, is what will likely emerge in the headline number as all of these oddities resolve. MY COMMENT YES...another view that in spite of all the SENSATIONALISM...the trend is UNFORTUNATELY.....disinflation....or deflation. As an investor......I do NOT invest according to the general economic data like the current inflation data that is being released this week. Do so at your own risk.
WELL.......the NVIDIA stock split party is OVER for me. A while ago (earlier this morning) I sold out 30 of my NVIDIA short term stock split play shares. That leaves me with 5 shares profit on the 35 shares and 4 shares profit on my initial 30 shares for a total gain of 9 shares profit. I purchased 30 shares on May 21, 2021 to play the split news.....held them for a few weeks and sold out 26 shares keeping 4 shares as profit. I than immediately bought back 35 shares on margin......and sold 30 of them today keeping 5 shares as profit. When it all clears I will be off margin......and will have gained 9 pre-split shares that will turn into 36 shares post-split. My total profit.......as of this moment......is $6881 since May 21, 2021. I decided to take my profit now since I have been very WARY of how the stock has been trading the past four or five days. I may end up leaving some money on the table....but I wanted to LOCK IN my profit and not GAMBLE over the next four market days trying to gain some additional small amount. I was intending to sell next Tuesday, anyway. I did not care to try to wring every penny out of the trade versus perhaps losing $500 to $1000 over that same time period. Of course if the stock takes off.....which I do NOT expect....over the next 4-5 trading days.....my 9 shares profit will CONTINUE to benefit. The 9 shares profit will become part of my LONG TERM Nvidia holding. I have ZERO plans to sell any of my long term NVIDIA.
I did see this earlier this morning......I dont know her reasoning for selling Nvidia......BUT.....taking a profit is NEVER a bad thing. I NEVER second guess this sort of decision....especially when I have a really nice gain. Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest Swaps Nvidia and Shopify for Coinbase Cathie Wood-led ARK Investment Management sheds shares of Nvidia and Shopify, shifting capital to Coinbase Global amid a stock price dip. https://www.thestreet.com/investing...d-shopify-for-coinbase?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO "Cathie Wood-led ARK Investment Management (ARK) shed shares in chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA) - Get Report and e-commerce back-end provider Shopify (SHOP) - Get Report, shifting some of its capital into Coinbase Global (COIN) amid a dip in the crypto exchange provider’s stock price. The popular exchange-traded fund sold 785 shares of Nvidia, estimated to be worth about $635,850, according to Business Insider. ARK also sold 16,034 shares in e-commerce company Shopify, estimated to be worth about $24.3 million. The investment firm snapped up 27,844 shares, estimated to be worth about $6.77 million, in cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase on the dip, according to reports. Share-purchase information comes from a subscription to ARK's daily trading information. This purchase comes less than three weeks after ARK Invest added 214,718 shares of Coinbase between its ARK Innovation (ARKK) - Get Report and ARK Next Generation Internet (ARKW) - Get Report ETFs." MY COMMENT Not the reason that I sold my small NVIDIA trade......but perhaps confirmation that.....others think..... it has reached a short term HIGH......before the day of the split. Who knows......this short term STUFF is pure guesswork.
HERE is what is happening so far today............still........so far so good as of 11:15 ET. Stock market news live updates: Stocks rise as investors consider strong earnings, Powell's remarks on inflation https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-july-14-2021-221612281.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks gained Wednesday morning as investors digested a solid batch of second-quarter corporate earnings results and another set of inflation data. The S&P 500 gained to shake off losses from Tuesday's session. The Dow also rose, and the Nasdaq outperformed as technology and growth stocks gained. Bank of America (BAC) shares dipped after the company became the latest major bank to post mixed second-quarter earnings results, with revenue net of interest expenses dipping 4% over last year and missing estimates amid a decline in interest rates. Stocks appeared to shrug off some of the concerns over inflation that had weighed on stocks earlier this week, especially after prepared remarks ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's appearance before Congress on Wednesday showed he believed inflation "will likely remain elevated in coming months before moderating." The central bank leader also said the U.S. economy was "still a ways off" from reaching the Fed's threshold of "substantial further progress" toward recovering, which would trigger a roll-back of crisis-era asset purchases. Still, some of the latest data has pointed to a marked increase in prices, albeit off last year's pandemic-depressed lows. A hotter-than-expected print on consumer price inflation registered the fastest annual increase since 2008 on Tuesday. And on Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics' June producer price index registered a 7.3% year-over-year increase, marking the fastest rise on record in data spanning back to 2010. Analysts have been split over just how transitory inflationary pressures in the market will ultimately end up being, and for how long the Federal Reserve will be able to shrug off rising prices before making a monetary policy move. Bank of America's Alexander Lin wrote in note to clients that the firm doesn't believe the consumer price index (CPI) "report changes much for the Fed," while ING economist James Knightley said the blowout inflation reading "makes it increasingly difficult for the Fed to stick to its position that elevated inflation readings are merely 'transitory.'" Others are still firmly in the mindset that price pressures will subside later this year. And to be sure, much of the rise in the June CPI report comprised an increase in used car and truck prices and other categories consistent with an only momentary reopening-fueled surge. "This inflation is transitory, and it will begin to pull back as we move towards the end of the year," Brent Schutte, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management chief investment strategist, told Yahoo Finance. "There are parts of the economy that were impacted by COVID; those supply chains are still impacted. And that's what driving up the prices of certain aspects of the inflation equation." 8:43 a.m. ET: Citi, Wells Fargo beat on quarterly profits as more bank earnings roll in A slew of big bank earnings continued into Wednesday morning, with both Citi (C) and Wells Fargo (WFC) posting reports. Citi shares gained after the company posted earnings that topped estimates, with earnings per share of $2.85 growing handily over the 50 cents per share in the comparable quarter last year and topping estimates for $1.94. The profit boost came alongside a reserve release as the company took down $2.4 billion in credit reserves amid the improving economy, versus last year's build of $5.9 billion. Beneath the headline results, however, Citi did show some weakness in fixed income trading, with revenue in the business unit down 43% over last year to $3.21 billion. The light quarterly bond-trading revenue matched trends seen at other big banks including JPMorgan Chase earlier this week. Meanwhile, Wells Fargo also beat earnings estimates, with earnings per share on $1.38 coming in well above the 98 cents anticipated. Revenue also beat, rising to $20.27 billion versus the $17.77 billion, led by consumer banking and lending. 8:32 a.m. ET: Producer prices surged by the most on record in June over last year Producer prices rose far more than expected in June as supply chain constraints and shortages pushed up input prices for a range of goods. The producer price index increased 1.0% in June over May, accelerating from May's 0.8% monthly rise, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This outpaced estimates for a 0.6% monthly rise, according to Bloomberg data. About 60% of the increase in the overall index came amid a jump in prices in the services sector, with heightened demand in the service economy during the reopening pushing prices up. Over last year, the producer price index rocketed higher by 7.3%, coming in well above May's 6.6% rise. This marked the fastest rise on record, based on BLS data going back to 2010. 7:38 a.m. ET: Delta Air Lines narrows losses in second quarter, sees return to profitability Delta Air Lines (DAL) posted a smaller-than-anticipated second-quarter loss, with the marked return of leisure travel helping boost the company's results. Adjusted losses were $1.07 per share, coming in narrower than the $1.42 expected, according to Bloomberg consensus data. Revenue of $6.3 billion matched expectations. Pre-tax losses of $881 million came down by about $2 billion compared to the first quarter of 2021. Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian told Yahoo Finance's Adam Shapiro in an interview that he expected the airline would return to profitability in the current third quarter. 7:13 a.m. ET: Mortgage applications jumped by the most since January last week as rates fell Mortgage application volume increased by the most since January last week as an at least momentary dip in interest rates attracted buying and refinancing activity in the housing market. The Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly mortgage index rose 16% week-on-week during the period ended July 9. Refinances rose by 20% over last week, but were still 29% lower compared to the comparable week in 2020. Purchases were up 8% on the week, including a seasonal adjustment for the Fourth of July holiday. On an unadjusted basis, purchases were down 13% week-on-week and were down 29% over last year. “Overall applications climbed last week, driven heavily by increased refinancing as rates dipped again. Treasury yields have trended lower over the past month as investors remained concerned about the COVID-19 variant and slowing economic growth,” Joel Kan, MBA's associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting, said in a press statement. “Mortgage rates fell for the second consecutive week as a result, with the 30-year fixed rate hitting 3.09%, its lowest level since February 2021." MY COMMENT Some good indicators above of the continued re-opening and the POWER and STRENGTH of both the economy and the markets. Yes....things will be erratic going forward....but the reasons are OBVIOUS. It is particularly TELLING that the Ten Year Treasury is at 1.366%. My view is this is the SINGLE most important indicator of the REAL inflation story.
I guess selling my 30 shares of NVIDIA TANKED the stock....it is now down by $14.26 for the day. I did not know that I had this much POWER to move the markets. Feeling very good about my decision to sell. I sold at $808. It was slightly in the red at that time for the day. It is now at $796. I will be a very interested OBSERVER over the next days till the split next Tuesday. Of course I STILL have a big position in the stock for the long term....so I do NOT want to see it go down......even though I sold this LITTLE number of short term shares.
The current market drop is the.....TALKING FED....syndrome. Powell will be talking.....yet again...very soon to our political hero's in DC. What a JOKE and a waste of time. Theater and performance art.
DONT worry....be happy...EMMETT. What he is going to say should make the markets very happy. The key word being......"should". We all know how it tends to work out in....short term....reality. AND.......the averages are NOW.....ALL....back to green....for the moment. PARTY TIME!!!
Hey Emmett.....as a fellow LIBERTARIAN I am sure you would agree: “No man's life, liberty, or property are safe while the legislature is in session.” Hey.....my state is half way there...half of our state legislature just fled the state. Now if we can get the other half to do the same and lock the boarders....before they could get back in......we would have it made. (yes sarcasm) Oh well...we work with what we are given on any given day.
in case you missed it, @WXYZ, fellow libertarian larry elder (the sage from south central) has tossed his name in the hat to replace governor nitwit out here in lala land.
You going to audition for that part...Emmett? I saw that about Larry Elder...that recall election might be interesting....probably too many candidates of various types will split all the vote and give it to Newsome. Of course that assumes that people vote to "recall" first and you get to the vote for candidates.
Perhaps I should audition....I am right in that age range and a NATURAL for the part....a caustic, sarcastic, cynical, bitter, old fart.
Another very good close for me today. Although....the markets did back off for my account in the last 30 minutes. BUT....still a very good green day. Eight of ten positions were UP for me today. The two that were RED were Nvidia and Nike....once again the curse of the "N" stocks. I was able to get a pretty good beat on the SP500.....0.45%. I may be at another all time account high today....I dont remember my last high a few days ago....today is either just over or just under.
SORRY....for tanking NVIDIA when I sold 30 of my 35 shares this morning for $808 and TERMINATED my short term stock split trade. Since than it has been ALL down for the rest of the day. The stock closed down by $16.34 at $793. Very glad that I decided to NOT ride it out for the next 3 days till the split shares start to trade. Of course......I repeat this so people dont think I sold all my shares.....I STILL have ALL my long term holding shares PLUS 9 extra shares that are my trade PROFIT. Probably a pretty good shot at the stock being up tomorrow with this big of a loss today. It seems like people are buying the dips in this stock lately. Although....there seems to be a lot of short term weakness in the stock. Perhaps the selling will reverse after the split when the shares are much cheaper.
