The Long Term Investor

We missed you Zukodany.

That is a great account of your year and move. Time flies.......it hardly seems like a year since you started talking on here about moving. It takes guts to make a big move like that from an area where you are established and have lived for a long time.

My wife and I BOTH come from career military families......so we are used to moving......we have owned 10 homes during our lives.....so we know how to move.....it is a BIG CHORE.

CONGRATULATIONS to you both on the POSITIVE life change......and continued success with your old and new businesses plus the collecting......and.....investing.

 

I was out much of the day yesterday.....from about 2:00PM to 2AM......doing a little road trip and a show. So....I missed the "spam"........or I should say SCAM......above. Interesting....I have never seen a post like that on any site before.

 

This being the weekend....here is an interesting article of the HUGE MONEY that is being spent on vintage video games....especially those that were never opened. Heritage Auctions is the primary seller of many of these BIG MONEY games at auction. I continue to see HUGE increases and world record prices in many collecting categories. For the past couple of months it seemed like the collecting market had slowed down a bit....just like real estate.....from TOTAL PANIC BUYING....to simply....a RED HOT market. Now I am not so sure.

The amount of money that is being spent on collectables is AMAZING....way beyond simple collecting....it is NOW...at least for the moment....high end speculation and investing by those with MASSIVE money to burn.

Collectors are as confused as you are about that $1.56M Super Mario 64 sale
Old-school collectors meet "new money" as sealed prices inflate 10x in two years.

https://arstechnica.com/features/20...you-are-about-that-1-56m-super-mario-64-sale/

"If you aren't immersed in the world of high-end video game collecting, it's probably hard to understand why someone paid in excess of $1.5 million for a single, shrinkwrap-sealed boxed copy of Super Mario 64 last Sunday. But if you talk to people who have been collecting games and following this insular world for decades, you'll find... well, they also think it's hard to understand.
The confusing part isn't even the sheer amount of money being spent on a video game box that no one will ever open, much less play. Ever since an early sealed printing of Super Mario Bros. sold for over $100,000 in 2019, the general consensus in the world of high-end game collecting was that an eventual seven-figure game sale was inevitable. But even after a $660,000 Super Mario Bros. sale two months ago, many didn't think the flashy million-dollar barrier would be broken so quickly. "I honestly thought that this was a milestone that we wouldn't pass until years from now," Heritage Auctions Video Game Consignment Director Valarie McLeckie told Ars.

More than the timing, though, game collectors that spoke to Ars expressed near-universal shock that this was the first game to command such a high price. In the past, the small handful of games that have sold for $100,000 or more have all been extremely rare and notable in some way. The Legend of Zelda that temporarily set an $870,000 sales record earlier in Heritage's recent weekend auction, for instance, was described in the listing as "the only copy from one of the earliest production runs that we've ever had the opportunity to offer" for an iconic game."

MY COMMENT

CLICK the link to see the balance of the article. If you are interested in collecting of any sort.....I recommend a trip to the Heritage web site. Even if NOT a member....you can click on their entire auction schedule and view many many upcoming auctions in all sorts of categories. You can also search their archives.

There is also a site called liveauctioneers.com that has many many different auctions....both upcoming and past auctions of ALL sorts. They contain information on many many auctions by various auction companies all over the country. You can also search their data base for past sales.

 

OK......time to load up on the carbs, get all hydrated, suck down some pure oxygen,....because......the markets re-open tomorrow. Oh....right I am an investor.....so skip the above....instead I will chug red bull, load up on the chips and junk food, and push the sugar and candy.

Netflix earnings, housing data: What to know this week

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/netflix-earnings-housing-data-what-to-know-this-week-122701148.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"This week, second-quarter earnings season will ramp up, offering investors a fuller picture of the extent of the rebound in corporate profits as social distancing standards eased. Data on the housing market will also be in focus.

So far, companies have been topping already-elevated expectations for second-quarter results. About 8% of S&P 500 companies have reported results so far, mostly comprising banks. And of those reporting, 85% have topped estimates, according to FactSet data.

One of the most closely watched quarterly reports this week will come from Netflix (NFLX) on Tuesday. As the first of the "FAANG" names to post results, the report will set the tone for the other Big Tech companies still left to post their quarterly earnings.

Investors are nervously eyeing Netflix's second-quarter earnings report after a sharply disappointing first quarter, during which the streaming giant added fewer than 4 million new paying subscribers versus the 6.3 million expected. At its peak during the pandemic, Netflix had added nearly 15.8 million new subscribers in a single quarter. In April, Netflix attributed the first-quarter subscriber miss to "the big COVID-19 pull forward in 2020 and a lighter content slate in the first half of this year, due to COVID-19 production delays."

Netflix said it only expected to add 1 million new subscribers for the April through June quarter. The company added more than 10 million new paying users during the same period in 2020 when the pandemic still kept consumers mostly confined to their homes in search of entertainment.

But the slowing rate of new subscriber additions for Netflix has come alongside the maturation of the platform in major markets. With nearly 208 million global subscribers, Netflix is still the clear U.S. leader in streaming content, followed by a wide margin by Disney+ with 103.6 million subscribers. And Disney's streaming competitor also missed estimates for new subscriber additions at the start of the year, underscoring the industry-wide slowdown following the record droves of customer sign-ups during the height of the pandemic.

"Netflix has a considerable first-mover advantage, with nearly 210 million global subscribers. This figure, however, belies the fact that Netflix is approaching market saturation in North America, with its nearly 75 million members comprising around 60% of all households," Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter wrote in a note.

"Its first-mover advantage will only take it so far, as it must continue to produce new content in order to retain existing subscribers, and must continue to renew licensed content in order to attract new subscribers," he added. "Netflix’s opportunities overseas remain compelling, and we think this will support high single digit percentage user growth for the foreseeable future."

But in terms of new content, Netflix is reportedly pushing to expand its content outside of its core television and film programming. The company said last week that it hired Mike Verdu, former Electronic Arts (EA) and Facebook-owned (FB) Oculus executive, as vice president of game development. According to a report from Bloomberg, Netflix is aiming to offer video games to users in the next year. Investors are poised to eye Netflix's earnings report this week for more details about the strategy for the new business offering.

According to Truist Securities analyst Matthew Thornton, Netflix's foray into gaming would be "an extension of their content strategy," much like the streaming platform's other recent moves into unscripted content, premium films and children's programming.

"There is an opportunity here, at least at the margin, to differentiate the service versus some of their direct peers and help drive engagement, retention, and of course, subscriber growth and revenue growth," Thornton told Yahoo Finance Live. "What the content strategy will be here still remains to be seen. Are they going to keep this to their own first party content only, build their own content?"

"I think, you know, the biggest opportunity, of course, would be to actually open up to third party content as well, which would put them a little more head to head and comparable to the platforms out there that are offered by Microsoft, or Sony, or Nintendo, Google, Amazon, and others," he added.

In terms of top- and bottom-line results, Netflix is expected to deliver earnings of $3.16 per share on revenue of $7.32 billion, which would represent growth of 19% over last year.

Shares of Netflix have declined by about 1% for the year-to-date, underperforming against the S&P 500's nearly 16% rise over the same period.

Housing data
A slew of housing market data is also due for release this week.

These will include the Commerce Department's report on housing starts and building permits, highlighting the pace of new home construction and future construction as tight inventory levels continue to weigh on housing market activity. Housing starts are expected to rise by 1.2% month-on-month in June for a back-to-back monthly gain, albeit while slowing from May's 3.6% monthly rise.

A drop in lumber prices after a spring surge is poised to help alleviate building costs and stoke construction. However, last week's retail sales report showed that both furniture and building material sales dipped in June, extending May's drop. The declines, however, may at least partially reflect drops in the actual price of building inputs like lumber, rather than or in addition to a pull-back in sales volume.

Other closely watched housing data this week will include the National Association of Realtors' monthly existing home sales report for June. This will likely register the first monthly increase in sales since January, with sales of previously owned homes anticipated to rise by 1.7% in June, according to Bloomberg consensus data. In May, existing home sales fell by 0.9%.

"We take positive signal from the 8% surge in May pending home sales, which hit the highest level since 2005. Existing home sales dropped for the fourth consecutive month in May, partly due to the high home prices squeezing out potential buyers in the market," Michelle Meyer, U.S. economist at Bank of America, wrote in a note on Friday. "The median price of an existing home in May marked the highest ever recorded at $350k, which was 23.6% higher compared with May 2020. That said, the inventory uptick in June and lowering lumber prices could bode well for buyers, potentially alleviating the pressure from the persistent high prices and tight inventory."

Economic Calendar

• Monday: NAHB Housing Market Index, July (82 expected, 81 in June)
  
  
• Tuesday: Housing starts, month-on-month, June (+1.2% expected, +3.6% in May); Building permits, month-on-month, June (+1.0% expected, -2.9% in May)
  
  
• Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended July 16 (+16.0% during prior week)
  
  
• Thursday: Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity index, June (0.30 expected, 0.29 in May); Initial jobless claims, week ended July 15 (350,000 expected, 360,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, week ended July 10 (3.241 million during prior week); Leading index, June (0.9% expected, 1.3% in May); Existing home sales, June (5.90 million expected, 5.80 million in May); Kansas City Federal Reserve Manufacturing Activity index, July (25 expected, 27 in June)
  
  
• Friday: Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI, July preliminary (62.0 expected, 62.1 in June); Markit U.S. Services PMI, July preliminary (64.5 expected, 64.6 in June); Markit U.S. Composite PMI, July preliminary (63.7 in June)

Earnings Calendar

• Monday: AutoNation (AN) before market open; IBM (IBM) after market close
  
  
• Tuesday: Synchrony Financial (SYF), Philip Morris International (PM), Halliburton (HAL), Ally Financial (ALLY) before market open; Netflix (NFLX), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), United Airlines (UAL) after market close
  
  
• Wednesday: Anthem (ANTM), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Nasdaq (NDAQ), Coca-Cola (KO), Harley-Davidson (HOG), Verizon (VZ) before market open; Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Whirlpool (WHR), Texas Instruments (TXN), Equifax (EFX) after market close
  
  
• Thursday: Danaher (DHR), DR Horton (DHI), AT&T (T), Newmont Corp (NEM), Dow Inc. (DOW), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Alaska Air Group (ALK), Biogen (BIIB), American Airlines (AAL), Domino's Pizza (DPZ), The Blackstone Group (BX), Crocs (CROX), Southwest Airlines (LUV), Union Pacific (UNP), Capital One Financial (COF), Intel Corp (INTC), Boston Beer Co (SAM), Twitter (TWTR), Snap (SNAP)
  
  
• Friday: American Express (AXP), Schlumberger (SLB), Honeywell (HON), Kimberly-Clark (KMB) before market open"

MY COMMENT

I dont consider Netflix any sort of indicator for the ACTUAL FAANG stocks. This company is NOTHING like the BIG CAP GROWTH stocks that are generally considered FAANG. It is a NICHE business that was very significantly impacted by the pandemic in a positive way. I do agree that the addition of CONTENT is the key for their business.....and.....from what I am seeing lately they HAVE NOT done much of a job in adding content. This is one of those.....ONE TRICK PONY.....companies that I have ZERO interest in owning.

We are just a little bit into earnings....but....we are seeing 85% beating estimates so far. I suspect that this level of SUCCESS will continue for the entire earnings reporting time span.

Companies that I like to follow....a bit....that report this week are.......Monday, IBM....Tuesday, Phillip Morris....Wednesday, Johnson & Johnson, Coke, Harley, and Verizon....Thursday, ATT, Twitter and Snap.....Friday Honeywell.

The first of my ten stock portfolio to report is Honeywell on Friday. Looking forward to seeing how their business has been doing.

My other 9 holdings report as follows:

July 27 - Google, Apple
July 28 - Amazon, Microsoft
July 30 - Proctor & Gamble
August 17 - Home Depot
August 18 - Nvidia
September 23 - Costco
September 27 - Nike

 

It continues to be....A GOLDEN AGE.....for those that are buying a home. Yes prices are way up and it is hard to find a property....but....when you do the mortgage rates are at historic LOW levels.....once in a lifetime levels.

Mortgage rates drop to new 5-month low and give 14M a reason to refinance

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgage-rates-drop-5-month-144500340.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Mortgage rates have fallen for a third consecutive week, making refinances an even more attractive proposition for millions of U.S. homeowners who are still sitting on older and costlier loans.

Average rates on 30-year home loans dropped even further below the 3% mark last week, to a new five-month low, a leading survey says. Today's mortgage rates can provide a typical refinancer with hundreds of dollars in monthly savings, according to other new data.

30-year mortgage rates

The average interest rate on America's favorite home loan, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, dipped last week from 2.90% to 2.88%, mortgage giant Freddie Mac reported on Thursday.

Rates are the lowest since the week of Feb. 18, and 30-year mortgages are even cheaper than they were a year ago, during some of the darkest days of COVID-19, when the average rate was 2.98%.

“Since their peak at 3.18% in April, mortgage rates have declined by 30 basis points,” notes Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. A basis point is one-hundredth of 1 percentage point.

Despite the ongoing declines, today's rates under 3% are unlikely to last, experts say. As the economy shakes off the effects of the coronavirus crisis, it may be only a matter of time before the Federal Reserve begins reducing its pandemic management strategies, including holding interest rates at historic lows.

"Homeowners and buyers should not get too complacent thinking that 30-year rates will stay below 3%," Corey Burr, senior vice president at TTR Sotheby’s Real Estate, tells MoneyWise. "They should act now to refinance, if it makes economic sense for them."

15-year mortgage rates

The average rate on a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage saw a modest increase last week, rising from 2.20% to 2.22%. But 15-year loans are considerably cheaper than than they were at this time last year, when the average was 2.48%.

The low cost of fixed-rate mortgages matches the low yields (interest) on 10-year Treasury bonds. Once those yields begin ticking upward, fixed mortgage rates are likely follow suit.

But one ongoing Fed measure could help hold down bond yields and mortgage rates. To support the economic recovery, the central bank each month is expected to keep buying up at least $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities, which are investments made up of bundles of home loans.

"In short, the Fed thinks that there is still work to do to get the economy back on track, which will keep mortgage rates low for the remainder of the year," says Realtor.com senior economist George Ratiu.

Freddie Mac just adjusted its forecast for 2021 and now looks for 30-year fixed mortgage rates to average 3.1% throughout this year, down from its April prediction of 3.2%.

5/1 adjustable mortgage rates
Rates on 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages, or ARMs, last week were averaging 2.47% last week, down from 2.52% the week before.

At the same time a year ago, the 5/1 ARM averaged 3.06%.

ARMs typically come with cheaper rates than those attached to fixed-rate loans — at the outset, anyway. After an initial fixed-rate phase, the interest rate adjusts in line with the prime rate or some other benchmark.

A 5/1 ARM has a five-year fixed-rate period followed by adjustments every (one) year after that. Because the rate can move up or down, adjustable-rate mortgages can sometimes be hard to budget around.

Refi would benefit nearly 14 million homeowners

Given the past year's historically low mortgage rates, you might assume that homeowners have been flooding their lenders with refinance applications. But that hasn't been the case.

A survey conducted by real estate platform Zillow found only 22% of eligible homeowners refinanced their mortgages between April 2020 and April 2021. Almost half of them saved $300 or more a month with a refi.

New figures from the mortgage data and technology firm Black Knight show that with 30-year rates at their current levels, 13.9 million homeowners could save an average $293 a month by refinancing their homes.

If you’re a homeowner who's been putting off refinancing, don’t be intimidated by the process. Start by gathering and comparing mortgage offers from at least five lenders. From that point on, you won’t have to do anything more complicated than what you had to do when you took out your original mortgage.

When you apply for a loan, for either a refi or a home purchase, lenders will look carefully at your creditworthiness. Today it's easy to check your credit score for free to see if you need to boost it before you start approaching lenders. The higher your credit score, the lower your mortgage rate is likely to be.

And if you ultimately rule out a refi, you might lower the cost of homeownership by scoring a better deal on your homeowners insurance. A little comparison shopping is all you need to find out if you’re overpaying. The same strategy could save you hundreds a year on car insurance, too."

MY COMMENT

Can you imagine securing a mortgage on a 30 year home loan at 2.88%? I NEVER had a home loan anywhere near this rate. I think the range of rates that I paid ranged from about 10% to a low somewhere in the 5-6% range. It is going to be a BIG SHOCK for the younger people when the rates go back to normal.

YET another indicator of the lack of inflation.

 

It has been a while since I mentioned what my process is of posting on here. It is very simple......it is TOTALLY seat of the pants....stream of consciousness.....posting.

There is NOTHING planed ahead of time......no plan at all in fact. I jump around based on whatever pops into my head and what articles I happen to see each day.

I DO....make a point of....ALWAYS.....posting in REAL TIME any moves that I make in my portfolio. That is the ONLY way anyone following this thread can see that what I am posting is REAL. What is the point of a LONG TERM investing thread if everything posted is slanted toward the successes. I put it ALL on here.....the successes, the failures........and.....the USUAL boring every day stuff."

As usual....I will continue to post my PORTFOLIO MODEL every so often for any that are new readers. For any that have not seen it before....I believe that the last time I posted it is on page 329. I currently manage my own money and brokerage account.......which is a taxable account. I DO NOT have any money in deferred tax........ retirement type accounts. I also happen to manage 5 other accounts for various family members. ALL accounts are structured the same way with the same investments.

This being a thread on a public message board.....ANYONE is welcome and encouraged to post on this thread about your investing and experiences with money. The MORE the BETTER.

 

I AM VERY HAPPY...to see the news below. It is a JOKE that we allow companies from China to list on our exchanges. HOPEFULLY this change will DISCOURAGE people in this country from investing in companies that are controlled by and a proxy for....the WORLDS MOST BRUTAL REPRESSIVE COMMUNIST DICTATORSHIP.

China Signals End to $2 Trillion U.S. Stock Listing Juggernaut

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-signals-end-2-trillion-200000682.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"(Bloomberg) -- For two decades Chinese tech firms have flocked to the U.S. stock market, drawn by a friendly regulatory environment and a vast pool of capital eager to invest in one of the world’s fastest-growing economies.

Now, the juggernaut behind hundreds of companies worth $2 trillion appears stopped in its tracks.

Beijing’s July 10 announcement that almost all businesses trying to go public in another country will require approval from a newly empowered cybersecurity regulator amounts to a death knell for Chinese initial public offerings in the U.S., according to long-time industry watchers.

“It’s unlikely there will be any U.S.-listed Chinese companies in five to 10 years, other than perhaps a few big ones with secondary listings,” said Paul Gillis, a professor at Peking University’s Guanghua School of Management in Beijing.

The clampdown, triggered by Didi Global Inc.’s decision to push ahead with a New York listing despite objections from regulators, is already sending shockwaves through markets. A gauge of U.S.-traded Chinese stocks has dropped almost 30% from its recent high. For investors in companies that have yet to list, there’s growing uncertainty over when they may get their money back. Wall Street firms are bracing for lucrative underwriting fees to dry up, while Hong Kong is set to benefit as Chinese companies look for alternative -- and politically safer -- venues closer to home.

It’s hard to overstate the importance U.S. markets have held for Chinese firms. The first wave began selling American depositary receipts -- surrogate securities that allow investors to hold overseas shares -- in 1999. Since then more than 400 Chinese companies picked U.S. exchanges for their primary listings, raising more than $100 billion, including most of the country’s technology industry. Their stocks later benefited from one of the longest bull markets in history.

Hong Kong-based website operator China.com Corp. began the trend when it went public on the Nasdaq in 1999 during the dotcom bubble. The stock, under the symbol CHINA, surged 236% on its debut, enriching founders and backers, and showing Chinese internet firms a pathway to foreign capital -- if they could only find a way around the Communist Party’s strict regulatory controls.

Unlike companies in Hong Kong, whose laissez-faire approach to business meant there were few rules on company fund-raising, mainland-based private enterprises faced much higher hurdles. Foreign ownership in many industries, especially in the sensitive internet industry, was restricted, while an overseas listing required approval from China’s State Council, or cabinet.

To get around these obstacles, a compromise was found in the shape of a variable interest entity -- a complex corporate structure used by most ADRs including Didi and Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. Under a VIE, which was pioneered by now-private Sina Corp. in 2000, Chinese companies are turned into foreign firms with shares that overseas investors can buy. Legally shaky, hard to understand, this solution nonetheless proved acceptable to U.S. investors, Wall Street and the Communist Party alike.

Back in China, the government was taking steps to modernize its stock market, which only reopened in 1990, having been shut forty years earlier following the Communist revolution. In 2009, the country launched the Nasdaq-style ChiNext board in Shenzhen. Under Xi Jinping, who became president in 2013, access to the outside world was greatly increased, including exchange trading links with Hong Kong that allowed foreign investors to buy mainland equities directly. In 2018, China began a trial program to rival ADRs, but it failed to gain traction.

The most radical step came in 2019 when Shanghai opened a new stock venue called Star board, which minimized red tape, allowed unprofitable companies to list onshore for the first time, and got rid of a cap on first-day price moves. It also scrapped an unwritten valuation ceiling which forced companies to sell their shares at 23 times earnings or less. But mainland exchanges still don’t allow for dual-class shares, popular with tech firms because they give founders more voting power. Hong Kong introduced the structure in 2018.

The goal was to create an environment which would enable Chinese tech firms to list successfully at home, and be less reliant on U.S. capital. This need became all the more pressing as tensions between Beijing and Washington increased during the latter part of former President Donald Trump’s presidency. Trump introduced tough new rules that mean Chinese firms may be kicked off exchanges in a few years’ time if they refuse to hand over financial information to U.S. regulators.

While secondary listings in Hong Kong picked up, Chinese firms still preferred New York, where it takes weeks rather than months to process an IPO application. China’s strict capital controls meant domestic exchanges couldn’t compete with New York on liquidity and far higher valuations for tech companies. China Inc. raised $13 billion through first time share sales in the U.S. this year alone.

After Didi’s contentious June 30 IPO, it appears the Communist Party decided it had had enough.

“The death of ADRs was inevitable,” said Fraser Howie, author of ‘Red Capitalism: The Fragile Financial Foundation of China’s Extraordinary Rise.’ “What’s interesting is the mold and template that’s achieving that result. It’s coming from a mindset of control and clamping down on business. That’s very different to a mindset of reform and building markets domestically.”

Beijing’s move to regulate overseas IPOs coincides with stricter controls over China’s technology firms, many of which have near-monopolies in their fields and vast pools of user data. This campaign to rein in the tech industry has accelerated in recent months as Xi seeks to limit the influence of the billionaires who control these firms.

For Chinese companies already listed in the U.S., what happens next largely depends on what China does with VIEs. Banning them outright would be unlikely, as it would force firms to delist from foreign exchanges, unwind that structure and then relist -- a costly process that would take years. The updated regulations are expected to be ready in a month or two, people familiar with the matter have said.

Hong Kong is increasingly looking like a viable alternative. For one, China plans to exempt Hong Kong IPOs from first seeking the approval of the country’s cybersecurity regulator, Bloomberg reported last week. In a forced U.S. delisting, firms that already sold shares in Hong Kong -- like Alibaba and JD.com -- can migrate their primary listing to the city. The delisted U.S. receipts, which can still trade off-exchange, won’t be worthless because they represent an economic interest in the company. Hong Kong’s open markets and greenback-pegged currency should facilitate the conversion.

Holders can sell their ADRs before they are delisted or convert them into the Hong Kong-listed common stock without much disruption. A company choosing to terminate its ADR program entirely can also pay out a dollar amount to investors.

Either way, it seems that the two-decade era that saw China’s most successful and powerful private firms list in the U.S. is coming to a close. The message from Beijing is clear: the Communist Party will have the final say on pretty much everything, including IPOs.

“It’s really important to own companies that are aligned with the direction of the Chinese government,” said Tom Masi, co-portfolio manager of GW&K Investment Management’s emerging wealth strategy fund, which has half its money invested in Chinese stocks. “I would not be financing companies that are going to circumvent anything that the Chinese government wants to accomplish.”"

MY COMMENT

This says it all:

“It’s really important to own companies that are aligned with the direction of the Chinese government,” “I would not be financing companies that are going to circumvent anything that the Chinese government wants to accomplish.”

SORRY......I dont have any interest investing in companies that are ALIGNED with the Chinese government and their GOALS. These companies are GARBAGE. They are CONTROLLED by the Chinese government and WILL do whatever the government wants them to do....SCREW the shareholders. In other words your shares are simply.....ILLUSORY. They can TERMINATE you at will.

It was ASININE when Clinton allowed China into the WTO back in the 1990's...and....it was ASININE to allow their (often/sometimes) fraudulent companies with no financial controls to come into the AMERICAN marketplace.

GOOD RIDDANCE......the Chinese government has done what the AMERICAN government and GREEDY investment banks did not have the GUTS to do.

 

My personal account year to date return has now gone to......+16.08%.....after the negative week last week. Less than 1% above the SP500 year to date.

The stock futures are pretty negative right now. But....I have seen them similar 30 minutes before the open and within 30 minutes after open the averages are positive. SO....I give NO weight to the futures and ABSOLUTELY DO NOT make any decisions based on the futures.

In fact.....I have NO plans to make any decisions or changes. We were/are due for a little pull back....if that is what happens. It appears that......NO ONE.......is giving any consideration to earnings.....at least from the financial media that I have been seeing. It is as though they are not happening. I do continue to see some articles about how SCARED people are....but.....I dont see it or feel it. I suspect this is just JAWBONING by the professional traders in support of their short term positions. In other words......whispering to their financial media sources........who than UNKNOWINGLY......help them.....try......to manipulate the short term markets.

As to the short term future....I do believe we are likely to see a correction some time in the JULY to September time span.....primarily because people will simply talk themselves into one.....if the media gets people all shook up. If it happens will it mean anything.....NO.....just a normal market event that occurs......2-3 times......nearly every year.

DONT FORGET......the big NVIDIA stock split happens at the close tomorrow. The split shares will be distributed Monday evening and EVERYONE will begin the day on Tuesday with FOUR TIMES the previous number of shares.....of course.....the price per share will also be quartered.

 

EXACTLY TomB16.

I had some strange dreams last night and when I woke up......the markets for some reason immediately popped into my mind BEFORE I saw that the open was going to be DISMAL

My thoughts......WAKE UP MR MARKET. What a WIMP....tiptoeing around afraid of your own shadow. Afraid that some big bad bogyman is going to jump out from every corner and shadow and shout BOO. A symptom of the pandemic and a year to being told we all have to be afraid and cower at home? Perhaps. A symptom of the modern generation and political correctness, etc, etc.? Perhaps. Who cares....WAKE UP.

UP, DOWN....I dont care....I am just tired of the fear mongering and the TIMIDITY. THE crybaby stock market. WAH...wah....wah....I want my mommy. What the current....Mr Market...has been living through is NOTHING compared to some of the past events and happenings that SMACKED the market in the face over the past 50 years.......100 years.....or more.

I will DO NOTHING......there is nothing to do or even consider doing. This.....cowering in fear market....is just PATHETIC.

This attitude is coming from......what is supposed to be the market elites.....the professionals and the professional financial media.....and it is infecting the short term markets. It is a reflection of incompetence and a total lack of self confidence. The IMPOSTER SYNDROME. The PARTICIPATION TROPHY market. If you have no knowledge of....or understanding of....or appreciation of ........HISTORY......every LITTLE event....or little bump in the road...... is some BIG SCARY SURPRISE that came out of nowhere.

MEANWHILE.....the "little people"......the regular retail investors.....DO NOTHING....as they instinctively invest for the long term.

 

At least NVIDIA is UP by about $16 today....so far.

 

I like this little article. ESPECIALLY the broad lessons that it IMPLIES....beyond the specific content.

Table-Pounding Value Bulls Should Beware 'The Great Humiliator

https://www.realclearmarkets.com/ar...hould_beware_the_great_humiliator_785855.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"What do you believe that is actually false? It is among the most basic investment questions anyone can ever ask. It is now one those expecting value stock leadership should ask themselves. All last quarter, pundits table-pounded that economically sensitive value stocks were leading the stock market upward, fueled by early bull market trends, economic re-openings and government stimulus. After celebrating Q1’s strong value performance, they were adamant on persistence—all quarter. But value lagged, badly. And that should be a wake-up call for investors. Let me explain.

Ever since 2020’s lightning-fast bear market, loads of data-driven investors hyped value leading the way up in a years-long advance. Why? As I explained here last September, “the data” say value leads early in bull markets. But for that normal reality, value needs bear markets’ archetypal long, slow grind downhill--culminating in late-stage panic. Last year’s bear market barely lasted a month—too short to reset the cycle. As I articulated here then, it acted instead like one hugely oversized bull market correction. Growth led before, during and after the downturn—a late-stage bull market feature.

The stock market is The Great Humiliator, or TGH. It craves humiliating as many investors as possible for as much money as possible for as long as possible. TGH wants you, me…..and even your aged, infirm mother. It fooled value fans last spring, summer and fall—badly.

When value didn’t lead off the lows, pundits doubled down, presuming their outlook was just early, not wrong. They cited vaccine rollouts, economic re-openings and government stimulus as why value would overtake growth. A brief countertrend starting November, as vaccine news broke, had them crowing. It continued in this year’s Q1 resumption—when world value stock returns crushed growth 9.6% to 0.2%—--convincing almost everyone value leadership was enduring.

But, TGH was hard at work—always is. Throughout Q2, pundits celebrated economically sensitive stocks’ huge prospects while believing value leadership persisted. But it didn’t.

World growth stocks smashed value last quarter, 10.9% to 4.7%, respectively. More broadly, world growth obliterated value since March 23, 2020’s low, rising 101.6% versus value’s 81.4%. Value rallies since then were countertrends—short-term head fakes for those buying into them.

Why didn’t reopening and vaccines spur value more? Surprises move markets the most. Vaccine-driven reopening mini-booms surprised almost no one. They were widely foreseen. Asian economies, which locked down earliest, boomed first—like China and Taiwan snapping back sharply from Q1 2020 drops the next quarter. This foretold the mid-2020 American re-opening that drove 2020 Q3 US GDP to soar 33.4% annualized. While precise re-opening magnitudes may have been hard for economists to predict, virtually all forecasters expected big rebounds. Its limited surprise power couldn’t materially sway stocks or change leadership trends for long.

And government stimulus? Won’t the global spending splurge and President Biden’s stimulus plans boost GDP and value stocks? No. As I showed you here at RealClearMarkets last month, there is no evidence so-called “stimulus” actually stimulates growth or inflation. The idea government largesse would boost value had a flaky foundation most pundits never bothered to test.

Even that gasping hope presumes stimulus actually passes! But slim congressional margins mean almost any dissent within Senate or House Democrats kills legislation. To moderate seeking Republican bipartisan support risks losing far left Democrats. Courting the far left means jeopardizing not only Republican support, but moderate Democrats’. See the incredible shrinking infrastructure bill battles with any questions on that.

Any emergent legislation will move slowly, getting increasingly diluted in route. Surprise power? Nope. Evaporated by this process. With stimulus sidelined, where do value bulls go from there?

The answer, apparently, is Europe. Many value bulls argue its’ lagging economic recovery and lower valuations foreshadow a European re-opening pulsing Europe’s value stocks upward. This is TGH perfidy again. Markets are fully global and far too efficient for such obvious theories to work.

Soooo, it shouldn’t shock you European style trends mirror the world’s: European value stocks lagged European growth stocks, overall, in parallel to elsewhere, despite last fall’s and Q1’s value countertrend rallies. Nothing unique there. Rather than inspire big bargain hunts across the pond, Q2’s big value lag should raise questions for those who championed value stocks all quarter. Wisdom just might realize that, despite this bull market being just over a year old, it acts much older as I told you a year ago. Such old acting bull markets routinely favor huge, high-quality growth stocks.

Hence, note: value isn’t just about economic sensitivity. Value stocks are predominantly smaller, lower quality and—crucially—less liquid. In typical bear markets small and illiquid is exactly what you don’t want. Illiiquidity contributes to value’s big bear market lagging effect. It can compound late bear market plunges as margin calls and other urgent cash needs force panic selling. Plus, fleeing a bear market requires stocks you can sell easily and quickly. Tiny value stocks aren’t that.

So, for this bull market’s duration both risk and reward favor quality growth. Value’s enduring day will reign once again. For sure! But likely not until the far side of an archetypal bear market. Don’t let TGH lure you into value’s illiquidity too soon.

MY COMMENT

The PRIMARY indicator of a good investor. Someone that is an INDEPENDENT thinker.....or a thinker....period. Someone that IGNORES all the little headline articles and daily FLUFF. Someone that looks and thinks about the markets and stocks and funds and BUSINESS....for themselves. Look at all the investing GREATS....BUFFETT, LYNCH, etc, etc. They ALL value......down time......where they simply read and think. They have the GUTS to simply IGNORE what they.....are supposed to do.....and think for themselves.

 

TOTAL WASTE.....of a perfectly good market day today. SO.....I will go and vacuum the house. May as well do something productive...that actually....matters.

For some reason typing the above reminded my of Davy Crockett and his statement....."You may all go to Hell, and I will go to Texas." My little quote is not quite as dramatic.....telling the......imaginary......stock market......."you may go to hell, and I will go vacuum the house".