appreciate the advice W , It was a leftover from the old "Swing for the fences" days of my investing It's with American Century , and after a couple of years with them I moved to Schwab, I liked the look and feel of the Schwab website better , and they had no fee trading. (which 15 years ago was a BIG DEAL !) I just never moved the old accounts , and eventually quit looking it up online, just checked the monthly statements every now and then. I just checked it and it's up another !0% today ,
HERE are the CRITICAL earnings today. Not going to post the entire article.....since I do not own or have any plan to buy any of these..... but they are ALL very good reports. Coca-Cola quarterly revenue tops 2019 levels; company raises full-year forecast https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/21/coca-cola-ko-q2-2021-earnings.html Johnson & Johnson expects $2.5 billion in global sales from Covid vaccine this year https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/21/johnson-johnson-jnj-earnings-q2-2021.html Verizon Stock Rises As Earnings, Revenue, Wireless Subscriber Adds Top Estimates https://www.investors.com/news/technology/verizon-stock-vz-earnings-q22021/ MY COMMENT YES.....all the above BEAT the various estimates. AND....some pretty good forward looking statements. This is going to be the NORM for this reporting period. A HISTORIC earnings time......which was being CLAIMED by the financial media a month or so ago.....to NOT happen. They were not expecting bad earnings....but....they were trying to CLAIM that the re-opening year over year BUMP was over. SORRY....we are ONLY at the very begining of the re-opening.
Not advice.....oldmanram. You have plenty of experience and dont need any advice. PLUS.....this being a random message board.....I dont give specific individual advice on here. I know you know that.....but...I will use your post as a vehicle to say that for others. I will have to look that stock up.....not to consider buying....but to see what is going on with the 10% gain today. Netlist Inc (NLST) stock Rockets 1100% YTD: Will it Hit $20? https://smallcapexclusive.com/netlist-inc-nlst-stock-rockets-1100-ytd-will-it-hit-20/ "Investors are often known to be more interested in stocks that might have recorded considerable gains over a reasonable period of time and by that token, it might be a good idea for investors to possibly take a look at the Netlist Inc (OTCMKTS:NLST) stock. The stock has been one of the more notable performers this year so far and over the course of the past six months alone, it has managed to record gains of as much as 1100%. As a matter of fact, the stock was actually on the move on Monday as well and delivered gains of 7%. There was no news about the company on Monday but it might be a good time to mention that last week the company had announced the signing of Securities Purchase Agreement with the firm Lincoln Park Capital Inc. As per the provisions of the agreement between the two parties, Lincoln Park is going to acquire shares in Netlist over a period of the next 36 months for a total value of $17400000. The 36 month period stipulated in the agreement already begun on July 12, 2021, and in addition to that, Netlist also signed a registration rights agreement with Lincoln Park. The latest development in relation to Netlist seems to have come as a source of excitement among investors and it is going to be interesting to see if the stock can continue to hold on to its momentum over the course of the coming days." Netlist Prevails against Google at the U.S. Federal Circuit Court of Appeals https://finance.yahoo.com/news/netlist-prevails-against-google-u-110000922.html "About Netlist Netlist provides high-performance SSDs and modular memory subsystems to enterprise customers in diverse industries. The Company's NVMe™ SSD portfolio provides industry-leading performance offered in multiple capacities and form factors. HybriDIMM™, Netlist's next-generation storage class memory product, addresses the growing need for real-time analytics in Big Data applications, in-memory databases, high-performance computing and advanced data storage solutions. Netlist also manufactures a line of specialty and legacy memory products to storage customers, appliance customers, system builders and cloud and datacenter customers. Netlist holds a portfolio of patents in the areas of server memory, hybrid memory, storage class memory, rank multiplication and load reduction. To learn more, visit www.netlist.com." MY COMMENT A pretty NICE confluence of circumstances impacting this stock over the past month......added to a very nice year. Not that I know anything about this stock....this post is the TOTALITY of my knowledge. A VERY NICE shot in the dark holding....oldmanram.
As to the earnings above and Johnson & Johnson. I owned that stock for a very long time....at least 25 years as part of my long term portfolio. I generally DO NOT like or ever own drug companies....but....I liked this company as a consumer product company versus a drug company. I considered them a conglomerate....that happened to make some drugs. It was a nice holding for a long time. I finally SOURED on them with the baby powder claims and the exposure they have from that disaster. Their vaccine is ALSO NOT anywhere near the top of the line compared to the other vaccines. I am NOT considering them as a potential holding. I also held COKE as a long term holding for a long time. ALSO....not considering this company.
NVDA....which I DO hold as a long term holding....FINALLY....got some......"sugar"....today post-split. The shares are up by $8.44 or equal to a gain of $33 pre-split. They hit a little rough patch over the past week and a half. Time to move forward from the split.....and focus on the business prospects and fundamentals. This company....like all the chip companies.....is always very erratic.....that is just the price you pay to own this sort of business.
I like this little article as a good analysis of the short term markets and investor behavior. The ‘Seinfeld’ Stock Market Full of sound and fury, Signifying nothing https://theblindfoldedchimp.com/the-seinfeld-stock-market/ "It is tempting to try to attribute every price movement in a stock, or in the aggregate stock market, as a reaction to breaking news or to new information. This practice shows up in the ubiquitous daily headlines and updates: Market Up Due to Good News X or Market Up In Spite of Bad News Y. Our natural inquisitiveness and need for order require not only an understanding of what is happening, but also why it is happening. The banal reality, however, is that nearly all of the short-run movement in financial asset prices is random and unrelated to company or economic fundamentals. Most of the time, the stock market is like the TV show Seinfeld, a show about nothing. The mathematical process used to model stock prices is called a Brownian motion, named after English scientist Robert Brown, who looked through a microscope at pollen particles immersed in water and saw that they were moving in random and unpredictable ways. While it is possible to calculate the probability that a particular pollen particle will be in a certain region after a certain time, unlike with other physical laws of motion, it is impossible to predict its future position and motion with certainty. Similar random shocks to stock prices make it a fool’s errand to explain short-term price changes, as futile as trying to explain why you won the last three hands of poker. Only over longer time horizons, when changes in fundamentals overwhelm random shocks, do price movements becomes informative and illuminating. The field of behavioral economics has generated a great deal of evidence that agents under-react to new information The Dog that Didn’t Bark Just as news is not always the reason for stock price moves, sometimes the lack of expected news is newsworthy in its own regard. In the 1892 Sherlock Holmes mystery The Adventure of Silver Blaze, the famous detective notes the “curious incident of the dog in the night-time.” When told that the dog did nothing in the night-time, Holmes replies that this in fact was the curious incident. Several academic papers studied such “dog didn’t bark” scenarios, and found that market prices under-react to newsworthy lack of news, leading to predictable price moves in the future. One such example comes from corporate insider stock transactions. The literature has mostly come around to the consensus that insider stock purchases are indicative of upcoming good news while stock sales are mostly uninformative. In a 2012 paper entitled The Sound of Silence: What Do We Know When Insiders Do Not Trade?, the authors ask whether the lack of insider trading is also informative. They show that in the context of insider stock transactions, no news is bad news, as insider inactivity is predictive of future adverse information releases and lower stock returns. When insiders refrain from trading for one year, the average abnormal return over the subsequent twelve-month time horizon is 4.3% lower than the case when insiders sell. The authors hypothesize that the main reason for this finding is litigation risk: insiders who know that bad news is coming worry that they will be sued if they sell their stock right before the bad news is revealed to the public, so they refrain from trading. Mergers Another instance where the lack of a particular news announcement delivers (negative) information about the stock price is in the area of mergers. After a merger is announced, there is typically a period of time, averaging around six months, before the transaction is closed. At the merger’s announcement, the stock price of the acquired company typically increases, but not to the price that the acquirer agreed to pay because there is a chance that the deal will fall through. Every day that there is no announcement of deal completion, the probability of the deal’s failure rises and the acquired company’s stock price should theoretically decline. The size of these daily price declines should depend on the ex-ante probability of a positive announcement of completion on that day. In a 2014 article entitled No News Is News: Do Markets Underreact to Nothing?, published in the Review of Financial Studies, Stefan Giglio and Kelly Shue investigate whether market participants are correctly incorporating the passage of time into the stock prices of firms involved in merger transactions. The probability of an announcement of completion (known as the hazard rate) follows a hump-shaped pattern in event time, peaking at around 25 weeks after the transaction is announced (see top panel of graph below). If investors were rational, stock prices of those firms that didn’t announce success would fall each day just enough so that the average return across both types of firms (ones that announced success on that day and ones that didn’t) would stay constant over event time. Figure 2 from Giglio and Shue (2014) Instead, as the bottom panel of this graph shows, average returns are highest during peak completion time (i.e., weeks 22–32 after the merger announcement), indicating that the market is not adequately penalizing those firms that fail to announce completion in that period, i.e., under-reacting to the lack of positive news. There is a big drop in average returns after week 32, as investors finally wake up to the news that the peak completion period is over and the firm failed to announce, indicating that the prospects for merger success are not good. Investor Under-Reaction Beyond the two examples above, the field of behavioral economics has generated a great deal of evidence that agents under-react to new information, especially when it is less visible or if it is bad news. A great example of this under-reaction is the well-documented anomaly called post-earnings announcement drift (PEAD), in which the stock price reacts immediately to a positive or negative earnings announcement but then continues to drift (on average) in the same direction as the original price move for an additional three months. Limited investor attention is usually proposed as the simplest explanation for this anomaly and other examples of investor under-reaction. Conclusion One of the main advantages of financial markets is that asset prices can act as signals about the fundamental health of the underlying companies and broader economy. However, the challenge for those trying to evaluating these signals is that market participants are often slow to react to news (or lack thereof) and that most short-term price movements are just random noise. The words of the great William Shakespeare apply to the stock market, and the media covering it, most of the time: “full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.” MY COMMENT YES....random noise....and....investor wishful thinking. VERY powerful drivers of short term investing. Of course...the way to avoid this sort distortion is by long term investing in rational and realistic holdings. Probably not necessary to say....but long term investing in IRRATIONAL holdings.....is worthless.
Its a relief to see our account setting new ATH, this morning. Going two days being slightly off the high was upsetting. I wanted the government to prop up the market but things seem to have stabalized.
I don't know what they could learn from my investing, Other than "Laziness Rewarded" (If I had transferred it to Schwab 15 years ago, it would have been long gone) But it was definitely "Long Term Investing"
LOL....they could learn to look for old forgotten accounts....oldmanram. There must be BILLIONS of dollars in accounts that people have forgotten about. ANYWAY....a nice moderate strong day for my account today. Only down holdings were....APPLE, COSTCO, and PG. BUT, I got beat by the SP500 by 0.16% today. I must be just about dead even with the SP500 right now by my estimate. The race is on for the rest of the year.
I missed the entire day today after about 11:30. So the below is news to me. Stock market news live updates: Stocks come full circle, erase Monday's COVID-inspired losses https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...ly-20-2021-221841943-111046902-221350203.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks rallied on Wednesday, adding gains for a second consecutive day as investors calibrated a resurgence of COVID-19 cases against a red-hot economic expansion that continues to show momentum. Strong earnings provided a ballast to beaten-down markets, helping stocks to come full circle from Monday's pandemic-inspired meltdown. Industry bellwethers Coca-Cola (KO), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Verizon (VZ) gave investors reason to focus on the fundamentals. All three companies topped market expectations, converging with sentiment that drove Tuesday's rally in a market that's seen very little downside in recent months. “The truth is investors have been very spoiled by the recent stock market performance,” LPL Financial chief market strategist Ryan Detrick wrote on Wednesday. “Incredibly, we haven’t seen as much as a 5% pullback since October. Although we firmly think this bull market is alive and well, let’s not fool ourselves into thinking trees grow forever. Risk is no doubt increasing as we head into the troublesome August and September months,” he added. JNJ topped estimates, but forecast a slim $2.5 billion in 2021 sales of its COVID-19 vaccine, which has sandbagged by safety concerns and production issues. In addition, Netflix (NFLX) and Chipotle (CMG) both posted strong Q2 results. The streaming giant beat analysts’ expectations for new subscribers in the quarter, but fell short of the target for estimates for Q3. Netflix also revealed more of plans to break into the gaming market, but its stock had its worst day in three months as markets registered their disapproval over its mixed earnings results. Chipotle also impressed Wall Street by smashing estimates during the quarter, thanks to the mass return of customers after COVID-19 restrictions, and ongoing strength in digital sales. The week started out with major benchmarks suffering their worst declines of 2021, which took the spotlight from quarterly earnings that have almost uniformly reflected a strong rebound. The rising case count driven by the Delta variant — a more communicable form of COVID-19 — pushed the Dow (^DJI), Nasdaq (^IXIC)and S&P 500 (^GSPC)to their biggest drop in months. However, investors are reconsidering some of that pessimism, with some analysts pointing out that hospitalizations and deaths haven't risen as dramatically — and are far below where they were during the worst days of the COVID-19 outbreak. “The market is playing this collective game of chicken right now,” CIC Wealth executive vice president Malcolm Ethridge told Yahoo Finance Live. “We all collectively agree that we can’t go on this way for much longer. There’s no obvious catalyst.” Major indices added to Tuesday's gains, when the Dow clawed back almost 2% on the day as investors bought Monday's dip. At the same time, bond yields have been on the decline, suggesting that investors are less concerned about inflation — but likely more concerned about growth, and the threat of COVID-19. More specifically, analysts say the threat of new restrictions can't be ruled out entirely. All eyes will be on Thursday's jobless claims, which last week set a fresh pandemic-era low. Since the onset of COVID-19, the data series has served as an avatar of the labor market's health, and could take on new importance if rising infections start to trigger new restrictions — which may lead to another round of job losses. "Bond Investors are growing concerned about the threat of renewed lockdowns due to the increase in COVID variants. We have seen at least one county in the U.S. revert to a mask mandate" in Los Angeles, noted Megan Horneman, director of portfolio strategy at Verdence Capital Advisors. "Other countries like South Africa, Australia and Indonesia are reimposing lockdowns. As a result, investors are seeking the safety of Treasuries if lockdowns threaten growth," she added." MY COMMENT YES.....it is a RED HOT market as the article says. It is interesting to note that the article says we have not seen a 5% drop since last October. GEE.....I wonder why I heard all sorts of people on TV and in articles taking about the "correction" on Monday. I guess someone TIPTOED IN and changed the definition of a correction on me some time recently. I LOVE this little quote: “We all collectively agree that we can’t go on this way for much longer. There’s no obvious catalyst.” HOW MORONIC is this......yeah.......there is NO catalyst......OTHER THAN.....what will probably be one of the greatest earnings reporting periods in history......and.....the re-opening of the entire world and USA economy....most of which is STILL to come. Yes.....we are due for a correction.....but....that does not mean the HISTORIC BULL MARKET will be over.....it will just be a correction during the course of a bull market......something that happens all the time and is normal.
No big earnings tomorrow....at least by my criteria (what "I" am interested in).......mostly more banks. Next week we begin with the GUTS of earnings reports. Looking forward to it.
Last time I thought this....the market tanked for the last couple of days of the week. So I will try again. We are WIDE OPEN for the next couple of days to close the week. We have momentum on our side after the past couple of days. Earnings are kicking ass with Coke, Verizon, and JNJ coming in BIG today. There are no earnings....that matter....except for HON on Friday..... coming over the next couple of days to get in the way.....and....I expect HON to be big. MINIMAL economic reports are coming out. WE ARE ALL SET....for a BIG end to the week. I dont see anything in the financial news right now.....since all the opinion commentators (formerly reporters) are hiding out after all the DIRE predictions that DID NOT COME TRUE....following the one day.....Monday Massacre......which totally recovered in less than 2 days. There I said it.......and....just JINXED the markets big time. I am starting to see a few of the "CALENDAR" fear mongers emerge. They are talking about the slow month of August......and....the poor month of September.....plus......October....another mythical bad month. Same as they always talk about sell in May....etc, etc. I really dont give any validity to this sort of superstitious nonsense.
Thats all I have time for right now....back out into the car again for more running around. Seems like that has been my day today...rushing from place to place in the car for various appointments and business.
Just for the record. Since this is a live journal and everyone is keeping score with their profits/losses. We’re almost 7 full months into the year and this year has done NOTHING for me. It’s been a constant back and forth for me, I’m currently up by a couple of percentage points. I was much higher last week, took a beating for 3-4 straight days, the last hurrah was Monday and now I’m up after 2 strong days. So clearly I’m the Debbie downers of the crew here, and I’m certainly not complaining, looking to sell or having any thoughts of jumping of a cliff. Just wanted it to be known that for me, so far, 2021 has been a total waste of time. Back to you Gene
i have been doing nothing since i stopped scalping in march. money is parked in 2 ETFs. up about 10% year to date. out.
I’m up about 14% YTD. I am about 1/3 of the way to my investment goal for before I turn 30. I am going to try to max my 401k contributions next year. I am very seriously considering selling all my other stocks and mutual funds and being 100% into the S&P. Seems like a simpler approach with a 1-2% beat on what I’ve done so far this year.
Zukodany, Emmett, and Jwalker.....you guys bring up a good point in your posts above. For the record.....today....I am up by 17.08% year to date.....the SP500 is up by 16.04% year to date. Ok.....with that out of the way.....some discussion. Excuse the rambling....stream of consciousness. This year......how each investor is doing is very specific to the exact holdings of THAT investor. Assuming that many people on here hold individual stocks rather than the Indexes.....obviously....A FEW are going to do great.....A LOT are going to do poorly......and MANY will just do average depending on what they own. By average I do NOT mean the average of the SP500....I mean the return that the research shows that the "average" individual investor achieves.....a return of about 4-5% per year....long term. We have been all over the board this year......earlier I was beating the SP500 by as much as 2%......than a few months ago I fell WAY BEHIND.....now I have made a comeback. We are ONLY half way through the year. What will do well and what will not is TOTALLY up in the air for the rest of the year. With individual stocks it can turn on a dime. THIS is one reason that I structure my portfolio and those that I manage so that.....to start....half the funds in the account are in the SP500 Index and the Fidelity Contra Fund. The Contra Fund has a long term history of equaling or beating the SP500. This serves as a counter balance to my STOCK PICKING and my bias reflected in my stock picking. I dont like to be TOTALLY dependent on my own stock picking.....I want a backup plan built into my portfolio. I think Jwalker is very smart......considering just going 100% into the SP500. I KNOW from the data and academic research that the average investor.....AND....the average professional money manager.....CAN NOT EVER consistently beat the SP500. I also know that the SP500 will return about 11-12%......annually...over the long term. EVERYONE......that invests in individual stocks....myself included.....thinks they can be among the very TINY MINORITY that can beat the averages....in other words beat the SP500. But very few will. This is just the reality. Those of us that CHOOSE to hold individual stocks have to accept the....FACT.....that many years we will FAIL to beat the SP500. IN FACT......most of us will RARELY beat the SP500. I know this....yet I choose to play the game of holding individual stocks.....for now. NO DOUBT....the day will come when I will simply go 100% into the SP500. It is not a question of guts or macho-ism or anything else. I have been doing this for a long time and understand the power of compounding and long term investing....having lived it. It is all about.....personal decisions....and....personal money management. It is all about risk management and portfolio construction. If what you are doing is not working after a good trial time period.....make the necessary changes. If what you are doing can NOT beat the SP500......and it is important to you to get the BEST RETURN for the long term......go 100% into the SP500. If what you are doing can not beat the SP500.......but you like the challenge of investing in individual stocks anyway....that is another choice. HELL.....even if you are beating the SP500 every year.......a RARE investor....you STILL might decide to just go 100% into the SP500 and take comfort in the steady long term gains. The bottom line is....do you want the BEST possible long term return....if you do......you need to evaluate how to get there......for YOU. THE ABOVE is why I say....ALL INVESTING IS PERSONAL. EACH person has to find what works for them. It takes time to do so....but once you do....just do it over and over and over.....until it no longer works. IGNORE ALL THE LATEST INVESTING FADS. Do what works best for YOU. If you seem to never be able to find what works for you....you can always fall back and take the EASY MONEY......the fantastic return of the SP500 over the long term. REMEMBER......It is NOT a contest.....it is NOT a competition. It is YOU versus YOU. It is YOU versus the markets. BOTTOM LINE......if you goal is to create personal wealth....it is YOU figuring out the best way to do so.....for yourself. SORRY a bunch of random stuff strung together.....but.....if you take any one of concepts above and expand on it.....that is how I think about money and investing.
Good morning. I totally agree with this point, this can be the the smartiest aproach if you dont have time, patiente, know-how etc. After reading all you said I got curious and went seeing my long term egg baskets; for long term I followed one aproached I learned here w/ WXYZ, half value with stocks (blue chips) and half with one ETF (in my case in €) tracking SP500. My stock basket has more or less same tech holdings present in WXYZ; I have also KR (The Kroger Co) and TSLA (Tesla), and I am considering adding FAST (Fastenal Company) when I have move the funds that account. I opened positions during December 2020 (except KR) so the result is close to 17% similar to what you said before. Other half was invested in following ETF Invesco MSCI USA UCITS ETF EUR(IE00B60SX170); it is traded on Frankfurt stock exchage, in euros, and is an accumulation ETF. I opened initial position in October 2020, and added a bit more last May. Initial position (from Oct 2020) is now up close to 23%, what is similar to the stocks basket (excluding dividends), if I had opened it earlier.
