PLNT and NLS report today. One is a fitness gym, the other is part of the stay-at-home exercise group. We'll see if the pandemic really has changed the fitness industry.
^ if that means we see another covid-like equities correction then bring it lol. Ngl, but the market price action lately has admittedly gotten a bit mundane for my liking atm. Would welcome some volatility, which would be super healthy and pretty normal for the market. I feel like this market could pull back to the pre-COVID peak and still not end this bull run. Although of course if y’all’s ask me, I honestly wouldn’t mind in the least if we saw some disorderly market action, the likes of which we saw during the height of last year’s covid correction. But that’s just me tho of course haha. The circuit breaker days from last year was pretty doggone unique and exciting to have experienced personally.
The market needs some excuse at this point, I think new highs on covid cases and hospitalizations could be a possible trigger.
OK, so ima just put this out in here rn. I know I rarely ever offer my own 2c on the markets nowadays. But feel like it’s been long enough that I’ll come out of my cave for a very brief bit here. Before I begin, I’ll also just put this full disclosure out for y’all’s in case anyone’s wondering. I largely have no skin in the game atm as I am sidelined this summer, to enjoy the time with my family that I didn’t get to spend last summer because of covid shutdowns. I’m mostly MIA from the daily grind as was noted here the other week, until at least the Fall time. But anyway, I just thought I’d chime in here for a super brief bit as I have just a few minutes on this evening to post this. So, I’ll have to make a confession with y’all’s here, and hope this won’t hit a nerve with anyone, or come across as some super crazy talk (albeit knowing full well it probably will as what I’m about to say will sound pretty ridiculous, not to mention a bit too simplistic if you will. I am after all typing this message out from a mobile device, so I have to apologize in advance for the super blunt nature of my post and not getting more granular with my post if you will.). But, I will say this. I feel like this “Fed bubble” that really started from the GFC (great financial crisis) bottom back in early 2009, is in need of a good reset if you will. By that I mean, a move back down to the markets long term historical mean. Whatever the triggers may be doesn’t actually matter, but honestly at this point now I wouldn’t mind in the least to see a meltdown in markets, the likes of which has never been seen before. Even far worse than the covid correction, or the 1987 crash. Like I said earlier, this is going to sound like too much crazy talk and wishful thinking. But being a pessimist and a glass half empty kinda person that I am and have been all of my life (aka a true bear @ ❤️) would love to see nothing more than disorder and despair (in the market) that causes the absolute maximum pain in the majors. Don’t get me wrong here! I’m obviously not wishing anyone gets hurt in such an ordeal. I feel like most of y’all’s are very seasoned traders/investors to deal with such situations which is a bigly credit to you long timers in here. But, I just feel like this has been held off for faaaaaar too long now and as bad and as gloomy as my post may come across for some of y’all’s, this really is just a natural process for the market, which I feel like the central bankers here domestically and abroad never really let the market experience during the GFC and other crises. Just think this band aiding every little fucking issue is not letting things run through their natural courses if you will. So seeing a good healthy reset on this fed bubble would be ultimately the best thing that could happen for the market in the long run imho. This post is getting a bit too lengthy now, and my fingers are about ready to die right about now typing this all from my phone lmfao. But this was just some thoughts I had going through my mind of late and felt a bit compelled to share that with you guys here as well. I actually have even more to share as I know this message may come across as far too extreme, ridiculous and simple minded. Anyway, thx for reading my gibberish here. Hope it was alright to post that in here. Did not know where else I could share this that seemed like an appropriate place. Glad to have finally got this off my chest once and for all tho lol.
i was meaning to attach this image with my wall of text post late last night here but it was failing on my phone, but will try again now that i'm on my tablet. mind you this is from last month. of course everyone can draw their own conclusions and come up with reasons why this time may or may not be different, or why this fed induced bubble can keep running higher, blah blah blah. to each their own of course. i mean, not gonna lie but if we all shared the same opinion that just wouldn't much fun anyway. so, it's great that we all think differently. that's the beauty of life imho. and yes, i realize this chart isn't log scaled. i know people tend to quickly jump to mention that. so ye i'm fully aware of that. like i said last night, i have no skin in the game atm because admittedly i'm out and enjoying my summer with my family, something i couldn't do much of last year because of this stupid pandemic shutting things down. so for me, if the market melted down back to GFC levels would not bother me one iota. would be quite fun and hella exciting if anything tbh.
PFE making moves to the upside, I think it is justified after the massive rally from stocks like MRNA and BNTX
CPI tomorrow. The number likely will be hot, let's see if it will move the market tomorrow especially the tech shares
I could definitely see another round of lockdowns. The United States is back over 100,000 cases per day. Matching the peak of the pandemic. We are now establishing a new peak. Luckily our number of deaths is low but the numbers are scary, especially with Fall and Winter approaching. Florida alone had nearly 30,000 cases yesterday. frickin insane. I am scheduled to get the 2nd dose of the Moderna vaccine tomorrow but I am hearing more and more bullshit about the effectiveness of the vaccine being called into question. It is enough to make me ponder.
People can still get COVID after vaccination but I guess it is at least somewhat effective to reduce chances of developing serious symptoms or hospitalization. Good luck with your 2nd shot tomorrow. I felt pretty sick after my 2nd shot and slept all day a day after my shot but it lasted for about 24 hours only.
It's a complete shit-show. The gov't has little clue what the fuck they are doing but they obviously can not admit that.
Stock futures are flat as of 0630, though tech stocks are seeing a little bit of selling with the Nasdaq down 0.3%. Bonds are dropping, with 10-year yields rising to 1.37%, their highest level in almost a month. Today is all about inflation. We have July’s Consumer Price Index reading out at 0830. Expectations are for the CPI to to have increased 0.5% month-over-month and 5.3% year-over-year. In June, the MoM reading was 0.9%, a 13-year high. The CPI is not the inflation gauge watched by the Fed (that’s the PCE), but that won’t stop people from pontificating about what this report will mean for interest rate policy and bond purchases. Friendly reminder that this is just one report and people are (perhaps by their very nature) prone to overreact and dramatize things a little bit. That is potentially also true for the news industry. We also have some earnings. Wendy’s (WEN) and Canada Goose (GOOS) are due to report before the open at 0930, potentially shedding some light on consumer spending (it’s summer, so if people are buying those Canada Goose jackets they may very well have too much money they’re looking to get rid of). Lordstown Motors (RIDE), eBay (EBAY), and Bumble (BMBL) report after the close at 1600. Earnings continue to be stellar this quarter, with 87% of S&P 500 companies beating expectations for earnings and revenues, according to Refinitiv.
The market continues to go up slow and steady. McClellan Summation Index is holding +140, staying out of negative territory. imo as long as it stays positive, there won't be a big pullback. Streak of little green candles in SPX monthly.
paging @emmett kelly I was looking at the investors.com "Stocks on the Move", and GMS looks good. Held the 50 sma with a couple peek-below-and-bounce the last 2 months; can see a cup-and-handle pattern.
