Well I love Married...With Children so Marcy was the first character I thought of who had a financial background. Of course there's other fictional characters that have a stronger connection to stocks in particular, but I really liked Married...With Children. I don't mind seeing her photo every time I post.
Good morning contrarians! Markets are flat across the board. Stock indices are right around 0, commodities aren’t really moving either. Bonds are up a drip, with the 10-year yield down to 1.35%. Those numbers as of 0630. The inflation watch continues today, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Producer Price Index out at 0830. The consensus estimate is for a 0.6% month-over-month increase, down from the previous reading of 1%. The year-over-year figure is expected to clock in at 7.3%, the same as June’s number. This is an important report where inflation is concerned — probably more important than the BLS’ Consumer Price Index reading that was released yesterday. Reason being that this is more of a leading indicator. Prices that producers pay for raw materials are ultimately passed on to consumers. Of course the major inputs are all commodity-related. The BLS website lists them out. So in many ways this will be predictable (and dated, as commodity prices have dropped a bit since the reading). Still, it’s a major input for inflation and one that will lead to inevitable calls for higher interest rates if it exceeds estimates. The Fed insists inflation is transitory. Most economists I have read seem to agree with this. It better be transitory because the longer-term spike is a little worrisome as the chart below illustrates: It’s Thursday so we also have initial jobless claims out at 0830. Expectations there are for 375,000 new claims, less than last week’s 385,000. The post-pandemic low is 364,000 so if we beat that then there’s a happy headline to guide the narrative. Also earnings. Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is due out before the open at 0930. Airbnb (ABNB), Disney (DIS), SoFi Technologies (SOFI), and DoorDash (DASH) report after the close at 1600.
Are the Moscow cows ok? https://interestingengineering.com/...d-with-vr-goggles-to-increase-milk-production If you visit the RusMoloko dairy farm near Moscow...cows supposedly roam around fitted with VR headsets. They have been specially made for these dairy cows to help them relax in order to produce more milk. So...a reason to invest in VR, or actually The Matrix? Or should I say, The Mootrix?
Well seems like this day to day rotation in the market continues. One day could be the tech leading and another day could be the banks and the industrials With the infrastructure deal though, construction and material stocks might still have decent upside left from here.
Strong day for CRM. Still way off from its ATH and has underperformed a little bit against its peers, let's see if it is ready to play some catch up
SOFI down big after earnings. I do have some interest to put some money into this stock, if it dips enough tomorrow then maybe I am buying some
Good morning contrarians! Stock futures are flat again as of 0635, after the Dow Industrials and S&P 500 closed at record highs yesterday. Dow futures up about 0.1%, the others right around break even. Russell 2000 down 0.2%. Not much doing in other asset classes, though both cryptos and bonds are seeing some bids (perhaps an indication of just how thin the trading volume is this morning). Earnings have been the main driver this week. Disney (DIS) and Airbnb (ABNB) blew away earnings estimates last night, but the latter issued some cautionary forward guidance around the Delta variant of Covid-19 and its shares sold off. There are more earnings today but no major companies from what I can tell. The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is the main economic data release for today. Have never paid much attention to this because it’s a trailing indicator. FWIW the number is expected at 81.2, in line with last month’s reading. According to this index, consumer sentiment peaked in April at 88.3. Presumably around stimulus checks. So it should be a quiet summer Friday. Have a great weekend.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/13/con...-low-sees-one-of-largest-drops-on-record.html Consumer sentiment measure falls to pandemic-era low, sees one of largest drops on record So consumers are feeling less confident due to inflation?
Seems the writer puts the confidence loss on the shoulders of the delta variant. If VIX closes here, it looks like that would be the 2nd lowest close this year.
Yeah if I have to guess then maybe combination of the delta variant, expiring unemployment benefits in September and higher inflation I am thinking we might not see too much fear or volatility until after the Labor Day when traders are back from the summer. If Powell mentions anything about tapering at Jackson Hole later this month then we might see some volatility too
Shipping: China partially shuts down port after one Covid case (cnbc.com) She said container capacity will likely get more expensive, and shippers will likely pass costs on to consumers, heating up global inflation further ahead of the key holiday season. Could be an expensive holiday season this year for gifts, maybe not a bad idea to start shopping earlier for holidays this year
Well I do prefer reading your explanation. Real strong finish to the week. SPX now up 4 days in a row, granted these are not big days.
Stock futures are lower this morning. The Dow Industrials and S&P 500 are down about 0.5%. Nasdaq off about 0.4%. Small caps about 0.7% in the red. Stocks in Europe and Asia are down as well. Nikkei in Japan off 1.6%. FTSE in London 1.2% lower. Those numbers as of about 0630. Some Chinese economic data weighing on investor sentiment, with industrial production and retail sales coming in short of forecasts. The local junk bond market is taking on water. All of this has caused commodities to drop a bit too, with brent crude down 1.4% and copper 1.6% lower Have said for some time that a slowdown in China is a vastly underrated risk. Might as well repeat this warning again. The scenes in Afghanistan are clearly not helping. There is no tangible economic or market link here (other than Pakistan’s stock market) but the optics are bad all around. Not to mention the humanitarian costs. There are no notable economic data releases on the calendar in the U.S. There are some earnings. Roblox (RBLX) perhaps the most notable but that isn’t until after the close. Add it all up and the narrative should be dominated by China and Afghanistan, which is not good.
After Friday's 2nd lowest VIX close for 2021, we got a lil spike today. However, since SPX is working on 4 up days in a row, I think we see VIX start to work itself back down after today.
^ so you are saying, majors to remain relatively mundane for a bit while longer (absent the black swan)? darn. back to my bear cave i go haha.
Actually not feeling too bullish right now. VIX is back down to 16.02, where Friday's close was 15.46. Don't think that will go much lower. We never had a +1000 TICK today, and only 30% of stocks advanced. The buying is in select places.
