The Delta variant continues to spread and the economic growth in China seems to be slowing Actually having some bad news might help the stock market a little bit, it pushes yields lower and put more aggressive tapering from the FED off the table despite inflation concerns
hmm, interesting stats i just came across shortly after the market closed today. so, apparently today marked the 8th ATH closing print for the SPX, which would be its 8th new all time closing high for this month of August. that happens to be the most since it did 8 back in 1987 and in 1929 (which were both...dare i say it... major market crash years lol). not suggesting anything, but just simply pointing that stat out chart: meanwhile, the SPX just officially dobuled off the COVID-19 correction low today, up +100% since the bottom. That's the fastest since WWII. only took 17 months to double up. chart: and finally, and this one def. came by some surprise for me personally, but with today's new ATH closing high on the SPX, made it 5 consecutive new ATH closes for the SPX, which were all less than a +0.35% gain each of those days. apparently something like that has only happened twice (1964 and 1965). pretty wild stuff and thought was worth a quick share in here haha. EDIT: oh and last one here that i forgot to add, but the next closing ATH on the SPX would be its 50th for the year. worth noting though that 77 is the all time record back in 1995. can it get there? haha. hope you all had a pretty decent trade day today to open up this new week.
All this positive news makes me nervous, and markets do not make tops when people are nervous... this is a confusing time.
Yeah I think the market would be more likely to top out if we are like last year or earlier this year when the SPAC or those Cathie Wood trades were red hot and retailer traders felt like they could buy almost anything and they would make money. Right now there seems to be enough skepticism to push this market further higher from here. Easier for the big funds to unload when the retail traders are all in
Good morning contrarians! Stock futures are down again this morning, with small caps leading the drop. The Russell 2000 is off about 1.2%, Dow Industrials down 0.6% with S&P 500 about 0.5% lower and Nasdaq off about 0.3%. Bonds are rallying again with the yield on the 10-year down to 1.23%. Those numbers as of 0630. The selling appears driven by China again, with regulators there releasing some draft rules on competition in the internet sector. Today is all about retail sales. One in the form of macro data from the Census Bureau, elsewhere from companies Walmart (WMT) and Home Depot (HD). Where the economic data is concerned, expectations are for a month-over-month decline of 0.3% in July after a gain of 0.6% the previous month. The core retail figure is expected to drop less, by 0.1% after a gain of 1.3% in June. That report is out at 0830. Home Depot just came out with an earnings beat on top and bottom line, but reported fewer visitors to its locations (perhaps because they didn’t want to deal with lines or low inventory. Those supply chains again). Shares are down in the pre-market as the company didn’t provide a full-year outlook either. We’re waiting to hear from Walmart before the open as well. That could rescue sentiment a bit. Friendly reminder that stocks were down pretty big in early trading yesterday too before recovering for gains. Sometimes there are just more buyers than sellers. When you have a lot of money sloshing through the system that tends to happen. Having said that, stocks have now doubled since the March 23, 2020 low. At some point it may be prudent to look at taking some gains off the table. More on this, including what I’ve done with my portfolio, in the podcast. Not gonna type it. We also have Fed chair Jerome Powell hosting a virtual town hall this afternoon at 1330. Supposed there’s a chance he says something about tapering, albeit a small one.
I haven't seen any reaction to Powell. Was today just a "fireside chat"? ANAB made a strong move today, was a clinical stage bio I was watching a few weeks ago. Fell through the moving averages this month, but held the monthly S1 (and the June low). ANAB's chart: I think the relative strength chart of ANAB/XBI shows that ANAB never really fell apart in the decline from middle of last month, see it holding the 200 ma. (I found an indicator on tradingview that gives you 5 emas, which you see above). In either the chart of ANAB or ANAB/XBI, seeing takeoff from the 200 ma runway. I didn't hold onto ANAB, but there'll be other biotechs out there.
Do you remember the name of that indicator? Nice that they provide all those shared Pine Scripts, but the hard part is finding what you're looking for.
Stock futures are down a bit, with Dow Industrials off about 0.3%. S&P 500 about 0.2% lower. Nasdaq futures are flat. Those numbers as of 0630. Today is mostly about the Federal Reserve’s minutes from its July meeting, out at 1400. Investors will be looking for clues about when the Fed could begin tapering. Don’t quite see what the big deal is here as the ultimate effect on the economy is quite negligible. Would expect whatever market reaction to be short-lived for that reason. But it does start the process of higher interest rates. Housing starts and building permits at 0830 should shed some more light on the crucial real estate segment of the U.S. economy. Expectations are for 1.6 million building permits, in line with July’s figure but continuing a downward trend since April. We do have some more earnings today as well. More retailers, too: Lowe’s (LOW) just came out with a beat on top and bottom line expectations. Same store sales did drop 1.6% during the quarter, but that was less than anticipated so the stock is up in the pre-market. Target (TGT) and TJX (TJX) are due before the open at 0930. Cisco Systems (CSCO), Nvidia (NVDA), Bath Body Works (BBWI), and Robinhood (HOOD) report after the close at 1600. For HOOD it’s its first earnings report as a public company. BBWI is a pretty good gauge of people’s purchases of things they don’t need. Starting to hear more talk that we’re “overdue for a correction.” What that means is discussed on the podcast. Don’t feel like typing it.
I just tried to find it and I can't. Can see in the screenshot the indicator is "MP", probably one of the Market Profile -- there are several with this name though. And none of the ones available are the one. Unlike other indicators, this one doesn't have the option to see the pine script so I think it may be discontinued. I got lucky and saved it to a template. But, if you want to write up your own pine script you can give this a try -- I'm not saying it is pretty: study("Multiple MAs", overlay=true) ema5 = ema(close,5) plot(ema5) ema13 = ema(close,13) plot(ema13, color=color.red) ema34 = ema(close,34) plot(ema34, color=color.black) ema200 = ema(close,200) plot(ema200, color=color.aqua) // use sma instead of ema for simple moving averages I didn't get the nice coloring on uptrends/downtrends, maybe you can find another public script that does it. Something from ChrisMoody maybe.
OK, so I just wanted to quickly bump this post from the other day here again so I can add a few more things to this as I now have a few charts to accompany my thoughts here. First, just wanted to share the quick visual in the form of a chart of the SPX +100% return off the COVID correction low last March (which mind you was one of the fastest +100% rises off a bear low ever in history, taking all but 17 months long). Secondly, I know I talk about how "mundane" the market has been recently, well now I actually have a chart to present that doesn't just say it in words only, but actually show it visually on a chart. Check this out. For the exception of 2017 (which as some of you know was one of the least volatile years ever on record for the market -- case in point, was the first time since '94 that there wasn't a -5% dip all that year). Well, you'd be hard pressed to find a month where its average daily swings by month was any lower/narrower. It's really not just me saying that things have felt really boring, but that it actually has been. And finally, I will leave you all off with this chart. It's chart of the SPX going back in the early 1900s to 2000. Why post this particular chart? Well, it shows the 2 most dramatic stock market crashes that ever happened in history in 1987 and 1929. Yes, 2008 was pretty doggone dramatic, but still wasn't nearly as bad those 2 years. Basically only showing this because for anyone (and not saying anyone from this board has said this), who said or thinks another 1987 or 1929 can't ever happen again. Well, I find it a bit interesting that whenever the market starts flying a bit too too far away from the longer term moving averages, will often times trigger a reset of sorts. In other words, the markets taking a trip back down to its mean reversion if you will. It's only part of market cycles that I can remember for as long as I've been in this gig. Not saying this has to happen tomorrow per say, but that eventually this move is inevitable imo. I know I had posted some quick stats (the above quoted post here), about how the last time the month of August last saw 8 ATH closes on the SPX, which only happened in those 2 infamous years listed below. But also, many others signs I've been watching of late, like the small caps index (Russell 2K) which has been lagging pretty notably while the rest of the market has been ripping new highs seemingly every day. Yes, I fully realize we are in this FED fueled bull rally, and the BTFD mentally is pretty strong. No doubt. But, works until it doesn't I suppose. I'm still keeping mindful of the warnings signs that are firing off as we speak. So, while yes, the market can still continue moving higher and higher and higher. I feel like the downside potential is much more greater than the upside at this point. But hey, that's me...to each their own I guess haha. Never mind my nonsense bullshitting here I guess lol. Anyway, that's all I wanted to quickly share in here. Hope you all have been having a pretty decent week up to this point.
Not gonna lie here, but its kinda interesting how I had made that ^ above post at 1:54pm eastern time (which I believe was about 5 minutes or so before the fed minutes release), and not even knowing what the ultimate market reaction would be to that. Could have certainly gone the other way just as easily, but admittedly I'm kinda liking the reaction we're seeing here now haha. We'll see if this doesn't just turn into another one-off event post fed minutes reaction, and a RYFOR (rip your face off rally) back to new highs in the days to come as we've seen for an umpteenth amount of times during the length of this 12 year bull run. I'm not so sure, but I still fully stand by with everything that I wrote in my post above earlier today haha.
That's good looking out there, @bearmarketcrash That eod selloff got the McClellan Oscillator below -150, which is usually an extreme. (But it can go much lower) We'll see if there's any follow-through to the downside tomorrow. Or if the slide gets reversed like you said, and we get a big rally.
Market pretty sold into the close after the FED Minutes. Still not sure if the FED is dead set on tapering, economic data is starting to slow and the COVID cases are rising. Guess we will know more after the Jackson Hole
Stock futures are selling off along with industrial commodities. Small caps are seeing the worst of it among stocks, with the Russell 2000 down 1.7%. Dow Industrials and S&P 500 are about 0.6% lower. Nasdaq off about 0.4%. Commodities: Copper and crude down more than 3%. Those numbers as of 0635. It would appear the Federal Reserve’s comments from its July meeting minutes around tapering bond purchases are to blame for all this selling. This reaction is a bit of a surprise as a lot of the Fed’s commentary remains accommodative and there doesn’t appear to even be consensus for when exactly to begin tapering, much less raise interest rates. Still, it’s enough to spook markets. Sometimes when things are as stretched as they are it doesn’t take a lot for investors to dump risk assets. Don’t call it a taper tantrum though, or at least not the 2013 version. Bond yields are falling, which means investors are bidding up bond prices. Ten-year down to 1.23%. It looks more like classic risk off. The Russell is flirting with its 200-day moving average (around 2,100) if you’re into technical indicators. Whether this turns into a correction is another question. Stocks have been remarkably resilient these last 17 months. Commentary from the Fed has caused some selling before, most recently in June around interest rate hikes. We swiftly recovered and set new all time highs. So is this whole thing overdone? My thoughts on this in the podcast. Not gonna type them. For now we don’t have much to take the focus away from this. Initial jobless claims are out at 0830 as they are every Thursday. The consensus estimate is for 363,000 new claims, down from last week’s 375,000. This figure has been range-bound for some time, but the most recent weeks have showed a downtrend. The post-pandemic low is 360,000 set July 15. If we beat that at least we’ll get a happy headline, though that may then just lead to more fear of Fed tightening.
Another day with 70% of stocks declining, several -1000 TICKs. Yet the market could close green, and on the highs. I'm not buying this. I just saw some stock news for REGN, but is it happening in real life? Regeneron has a COVID treatment (not vaccine) that is FDA approved? https://finance.yahoo.com/news/regeneron-regn-antibody-cocktail-covid-155503953.html?.tsrc=rss When are we going to see this?
