Lucid Motors is junk. I pity anyone who puts a dollar into this company. This coming from a former employee.
Giga Berlin has made a big step forward. I think digging up the apron area to install services looked like a regression. That's filled in and they have paved a small patch that will undoubtedly be the start of the apron. I don't know why I'm so bent on thinking they won't do much other than that a handful of samples without the apron paved but my predictions are built on this assumption. The idea of backing a semi into the mud to unload seems ridiculous but nobody would bat an eyelid if Elon did that. The soil looks pretty sandy so I expect drainage will be reasonable. I think we will see full production samples from Giga Berlin in September.
Over at Roadrunner, there is a rumor that Tesla has achieved 70% yield from their 4680 cell manufacturing process. I chose to disregard this number, although it is plausible. Meanwhile at Rivian, they are working on setting up another round of funding based on a valuation of $80B. If Rivian is worth $80B, Tesla is worth 8T. Tesla is easily worth 100 Rivians, probably more like 1K or 10K Rivians. With massive manufacturing capacity about to start coming online, Tesla continues to grow into it's valuation. Tesla continues to be very high but it is no longer comical. We have clear line of sight to 1.5M production rate at the end of next year. The real question is: Can Tesla double their cell supply in the next year? It seems reasonable that they can, given their fruitful partnerships, coupled with their in-house manufacturing.
Someone on Reddit just opined that GM and Ford have awoken to the EV future and are about to put Tesla out of business with massive production and cheap prices. lmao!!!!!!
Further musings on Giga Berlin. They are working hard on the battery building but I do not believe it is possible to produce batteries, on site, at Giga Berlin in 2021. If Roadrunner had already solved the yield problems, I still don't think it would be possible. Because of this, I don't expect much beyond low volume sample runs at Giga Berlin in 2021 with real volume to begin ramping in 2022.
Giga Shanghai is currently shut down, for some reason. The place is dead. Maybe a chip shortage? GA re-tooling?
Giga Berlin is rocking. It's like the place exploded with people, machines, activity, and progress. There is a ton of progress.
FSD v10b1 is scheduled to roll wide on September 10 at midnight. I expect this to be a game changer. It won't really be real FSD but it should make it easy to see a direct line between v10 and FSD. It will also make it difficult for anyone except the most extreme clowns to throw shade on Tesla's FSD technology. This, of course, assumes this beta release includes the latest vector and label re-writes. FSD is the game changer. It should be interesting.
China wants 40% of car sales to EV by 2030, this could also possibly be increased. If ever there was a market to be well positioned in...
The main parking lot at Giga Shanghai is about 98% full. I've never seen it so full. Cars are constantly being taken by car haulers but production is absolutely flying. It's been a week since I've seen the lot where they stage cars at the port, so no idea the occupation of that lot.
Quite a few people are starting to talk about the lack of ability for *all* of the major auto makers to survive the jump to EV. VW might make it. *Might*. It's been a few years since I opined that GM might make the jump to EVs but only with massive government help. Oddly, I still hold that prediction without change.
https://electrek.co/2021/09/02/tesla-model-y-takes-over-norway-electric-car-sales-market-share/ Tesla Model Y takes over Norway, pushes all-electric car sales to 72% market share
Giga Shanghai is producing cars at an astonishing rate. Haulers can't remove product fast enough. The parking lots are packed with inventory.
I've been overly optimistic about both Texas and Berlin, however, things look to be nearing completion in Berlin. Also, drone footage has shown a stack of assembled bodies. It can't be long, now. Meanwhile, in Texas, things are progressing but there doesn't seem to be an urgent push to create a parking lot or paved egress path for production. This probably means it will still be a little while until production is online.
