Good to hear that from you @bearmarketcrash. It would be a switchup to get a bounce for a week, then probe further down AFTER opex this month. We'll see, but looking at VIX right now, volatility hasn't exhausted itself yet this month.
lol, i thought i had made a bonehead move this AM not even realizing that the ecb had an announcement this AM. had re-entered short the eminis from 4493 on the dec. contract (which rolled from the sept contract today) pre-ecb announcement. because my intuition was that the market was going to possibly make a run for a rest of the overnight lows, as usually is a dalton-ism, the market typically doesn't makes its high/low for the day in the ETH (extended trading hours) session. whether the move would happen today, tomorrow, whatever the case may be. then sure enough the ecb had its thing, and we saw what happened with our markets right after. pretty much ripped higher off the cash open. i had to head off to see a friend in the hospital. but just came back a short while thinking my stop was gonna hit with a loser trade. then saw we got the spike down just a bit ago, which ngl, had me grinning from ear to ear as i knew this morning's pop was all on nothing but fluff haha. out at 4482 capturing another -11 handles i still feel like the overnight lows need to get tested here...and don't think we're anywhere near the bottom of this move. but, nothing goes in straight lines. onto the next.
AFRM up nicely after earnings. This one was a loser for me for months but thanks to the deal with AMZN, I am now up pretty decently with my positions
Have closed out my remaining emini spuz shorts earlier today to net me at $15k profit since last friday's nfp print. I know that may not seem like much at all for some of y'all's in here (it's really not). But, truth be told here, I'm not much for the yolos myself. For those that are and are really good at it, knock yourself out haha. But, at my age now (which at 38 feels more like 78 in trading/investing years if you will lmao), I don't really care for those big home run winners. A few grand here and there is perfectly fine with me, so long as it's incrementally going in the right direction. I'm not afraid to admit this, but I don't day trade anymore like I used to back in my earlier years (2006-2015). Back in those years I was verry active. Nowadays, it's just finding good higher probability opportunities (and am only strictly trading futures nowadays as admittedly I'm totally hands off of equities), and NOT just putting on trades just for the hell of it either. Cause not gonna lie, I've seen so many people during my years (not anyone from this chat tho) that like to put on trades simply because they have nothing better to do in their spare time or whatever. Where they put basically zero DD into it, and work on hopes and prayers for good things to come of it. That to me can often lead to such bad trades. I would NEVER put on a trade into something without putting some fucking effort and doing some good DD into it first at the very least, and not going totally blindly into something, or doing so because someone suggested, or something you heard, etc. Like for example my eminis shorts this past week -- which I didn't just put on simply because "my gut told me to". Nope. I did actually provide some data and charts to back up my sentiments here, which finally seems to be materializing a bit this month. Hence why I put my mullah where my mouth was, in the spuz short trades the past week, and not just constantly piping it up lol. Actions speak louder than words imo anyway. Been in this in gig since about 2005, and have learned a ton over those years. One of the things I always try to apply in my own personal trading is having good risk management. What I mean by that is just having a game plan before going into something. Which for me is doing my own due diligence which is really super important to me. Know your risk tolerance, and if a trade doesn't go your way, know when to get out when you're wrong. Because ultimately the only worse than being wrong is staying wrong. Don't let a loser turn into a bigly time loser. It's your hard earned capital after all. Seen it sooooooo many times from people I've run into in my years being on communities (forums/reddit/discord/etc), where they for whatever reason neglect this. Hence, become "bag holders" where they are left with a loser trade, and praying to make it back, sometimes in revenge trading that can lead to even more disastrous results... Anyway, not here to lecture ofc that's not my thang. Just sharing my own personal pov. And, that it's not all on hopes and dreams. But, doing actual DD and sharing that to back up my thoughts, like have been saying the market needing a pause/pullback from the recent rippage to ATHs seemingly everyday. Albeit, we're not even 1 full percent off for the week in the SPX here as of right now. So, needless to say, this pullback is still very much innocent until proven guilty if you will. This post is getting a bit lengthy, and considering that I'm doing all of this typing from a mobile device is pretty f'n ridiculous. But, anyway, I'm away from the house atm, and had a little free time to myself to hop on the boards here. Will just leave it off with an actual quick example of the thought process for me getting into the spuz short (at least from yesterday). Not sure how many of you are familiar with Jim Dalton and market profile? He's been brought up quite a lot from Peter and others on ShadowTrader. Basically one of the things that stands out to me is when an overnight high/low is made during the ETH (extended trading hours) doesn't often mark the end of a move. Like when /es futures traded down to I think it was 4477 or something on the dec. (ESZ21) contract. There are lots more other factors too ofc, but this is just one I'm pointing out here. So, even though we had that binary event yesterday morning in the ECB announcement that ripped futures higher all the way to like 4520 I think it was. That to me totally looked like the market was getting long in the hole if you will. Hence my "fluff" comment on that I think in here yesterday. Sure enough, we had the spike move down midday yesterday, which admittedly had me grinning from ear to ear, because I really felt confident the move up was false. Which turns out it was. Not always does this work ofc, but more times than than not. Actually, one of the reasons why I think the market top isn't quite in yet is also on the flip side, where the /es futures made an overnight high during the ETH session last Friday as well I think it was? The market never went back to test that during the RTH (regular trading hours) which tells me that'll need to get tested again at some point. Anyway, now I'm just writing way too much here (par for the course for me ofc lmao), as there's really a whole lotta other good shit if y'all's ever have time to read into the market profile stuff. Perhaps if I have more time in the future I could share some of the stuff I've learned with that over the years. I'll close this essay length post off here by saying this. While my trades aren't netting me huge gainz like some of y'all's. I just don't really care for those big grand slam homeruns this point in my life like some. And for me, having a relatively higher win-rate (which I don't mean to come across as this chest thumper or anything -- but did put on 3 spuz short trades since last Friday which were all, knock on wood, winners. 3 for 3). And outside of this past week, I haven't put on ANY trades at all, aside from my long term yellow (gold) hold, and ROKU which I rode up for a time after an earnings report a few months back, as well as an oil name at the very beginning of this year (XOM) which were all very profitable. For the exception of my yellow (which yes, has been a loser to this point still) my frequency of trades has been extremely thin. I really don't put on much trades at all nowadays lol. So the win-rate is higher ofc in that aspect. Since there's been so few trades I've put on. Alright, I'm finished now! Sorry for this huge wall of text in this channel. I know how some folks really hate these walls of text type messages so for that I do greatly apologize in advance. I do genuinely appreciate any of you who did actually take the time to read all of this from the start tho. Means a lot to me like y'all's have no idea. BTW, I probably won't be sharing my trades in the server after today, unless folks are fine with that. But, really don't want appear as like an obnoxious person. To be honest, I've never actually shared my trades and market thoughts at such detail until recently. I've always been one to keep things private personally. But, I guess I start coming out of my shell on communities I start feeling comfortable in (which kudos to this community I do!). Thanks for all y'all's do here to keep this place awesome!! Really cannot say this enough times. Y'all's rock. Have a great weekend everyone! And hope everyone's summer was stupendous. EDIT: whoops forgot to upload ss but here it is (ignore the "ytd" it's actually really from the past 7 days since the only trades i've put on in this one is from last friday up to today).
thx sje! i'm anticipating a dead cat oversold bounce soonish, probably sometimes next week. but, damn does this feel good. i love me some red candles for a change haha.
I don't measure good trades by how much money they make. It was a really good play-by-play you did of your trade @bearmarketcrash One thing about traders is they're trying to make money; but a big lesson to learn (for us younger folk) is to take the singles and doubles, don't try to turn them into home runs. Another big lesson that bear touched on, is just because you are a trader that doesn't mean you have to be trading all the time. Congrats on making money on a trade where you took the short side, those opportunities are few this year. (I think next year will be like 2018, so we'll see some two-way action).
OK, so I only have a very brief time on this evening as I have a super jam packed weekend upcoming. I just thought to run through a few things here as we head into next week. Couple of things I am watching, chart-wise at least. 1.) The SPX chart is really like front and center on my radar (considering I'm still short spuz contracts). I know I have brought this up in here a number of times in the past, but for me personally, I am going to be very interested to see how price reacts once it reaches the daily 50sma (blue line on this cash SPX chart). As I had noted a handful of times here, every time we've seen a drawdown in price from an ATH in the SPX, the 50sma has seemed to be a magnet to where price would retrace to, before bounce right back up and eventually making a new highs, rinse and repeat. The perfect way to illustrate this pattern below I would say is "stair stepping" higher if you will. It's almost textbook I would say lol. This has pretty much been the prevailing theme here on the SPX chart at least since March! Question is, will the same exact pattern play out for 6th time in a row again? Basically a bounce or near bounce off of the 50 day moving average, and back to new ATHs? I'm not so sure quite yet. But for now, I remain short. 2.) I know I've brought this stat up a couple times in the past as well. But, for anyone who has been involved in the markets (whether monitoring or trading) for as long as I have (since 2005 at least), will know that this month of September has been historically a very volatile month for the US equity market. It's nothing usual or new, and typically happens right around midmonth when things begin getting a little hairy if you will. Case in point, even with last year's massive rip off of the March COVID market lows, there was still a near -10% correction in the SPX last September as well! Needless to say, this month of September has seen some pretty large market pullbacks/corrections. Thus, this latest pullback we are seeing now really comes as no surprise (at least not for me anyway -- especially after the the massive rip higher that we have seen over the past few weeks/months!). 3.) I know this past week may have "felt" like a severe pullback for some people (specially for the newer trader/investing out there), but the fact of the matter is, this past week's decline on a WTD basis was not even a full -2% move lower for the week on the SPX. Yes, the market is down now for 5 days in a row...which by all accounts is starting to get a bit stretched on the number of down days in a row. I get that. But, IDK, this pullback still isn't that noteworthy. But, I guess since the market has been running hot for soooo long now, these pullbacks might feel pretty large for of the newer folks. That's what happens when things run up for so long. This "up only" behavior is really not normal per say. Pullbacks can and do happen, which is pretty perfectly normal not to mention very healthy for the market overall. Just my own personal 2c with regards to that. 4.) To lean on what I was saying above, the market as per my "pullback/correction levels from 52wk highs" table as seen below is still not even a full -2% off the ATHs (on an intraday basis) as of today's close at least on cash SPX. That's not even halfway to the -5% pullback that I've been thinking could happen here, which would be very healthy to see. Fact is, the SPX is still (even as of today) w/o an official -5% dip from an ATH (on a pure close to close basis) all year! That's a full 8 months w/o the bare minimum -5% pullback. That's pretty rare and stretched. In fact, there has really only been 2 years that I can remember that finished an entire full year (Jan thru Dec) w/o the bare minimum -5% drip from a YTD high. That was in 1995, and before that more recently in 2017. So, these kinds of things are pretty unprecedented to say the least. Will it happen again? It certainly could. But a -5% pullback from the intraday ATH in the cash SPX brings up to 4318 ... which is around another -150 handles lower form here. That's really peanuts though. A more healthier dip would be 8-10% which would bring price to about 4100. But, I'm not quite ready to call that (yet). 5.) Finally, here is a chart I stumbled across on Twitter the other day (sorry I forget the source of this one! I often just save them to my computer but forget where I pull them from lol). This one's for the bulls (just to prove I'm not 100% bearish all the doggone time! ) So, while this month of September has started off to a bit of a rocky start. But, let's be honest here, the market has been running a bit hot for a bit too long here. I mean, the SPX has notched 53 doggone new closing ATHs already and we're not even in Q4 yet! That's pretty insane if I have to be honest. So, while we're getting this pullback right now, things do still bode well for the EOY at least. Albeit, one negative potentially here would be if September ends up being a big down month. Where 1986 and 1987 both had a pretty large down Septembers and ended up finishing those years in the red. But, in 1975 and 1991 that wasn't the case. So, it's 50/50 I suppose. Nevertheless, when the SPX has started off strong to start the year like 2021 has, the rest of the year tends to finish strong. We'll have to see just how deep this current pullback takes us. Sorry for this ginormous wall of text! But, I seriously do greatly appreciate y'all's spending your time to read this lol. I'm just simply sharing some of the things that I'm personally looking at as we head into next week and the rest of this year. Should be some good trading opps in the days/weeks to come once this dust storm has settled me thinks! Best of luck to y'all's trading the rest of this month and year! And thanks again bigly time for taking the time to read this. Heading off now! Catch up with you guys next week. Enjoy weekend! EDIT: Oh and BTW I almost forgot to mention this in here as well. I know I had previous mentioned here that I closed out all remaining spuz contracts earlier in the day, but actually that was not the case at all. Lol. IDK, call it a case of me being in a frenzy at that moment. I guess that can tend to happen when I get a little excited seeing profits increase so rapidly like towards the end of today's market. But still have 6 contracts short on from an entry of 4489 on the Dec. (ESZ21) contact. Currently now up 22k on the shorts. Which isn't terrible given that this all came in span of 5 trading days (since pre-NFP's last Friday). Alrighty, now I'm done lol. Catch up with you all next week!
Here are the notable earnings releases as well as the highest volatility earnings releases due out for next week courtesy of earnings whispers (was debating with myself if i should even be posting this up in here this week due to it being such a paltry week for earnings reports this coming week lol). And here is the market week ahead thread which is now up on the r/StockMarket subreddit for anyone looking for a quick read over this coming weekend: https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/plx5ya/wall_street_week_ahead_for_the_trading_week/ I hope you all have a splendid weekend, and a great trading week ahead. Pretty excited to finally be back and in the saddle again after the long hiatus from the trading world over the summer.
Great information as always @bearmarketcrash ! No need to apologize for length, as it is all useful and insightful. That 50 day moving average graph is like clockwork, so of course if I do anything to anticipate any of that pattern behavior it will be all thrown off, so I will "remain fully invested as always"