The Long Term Investor

Being basically a PERMA-BULL......a long term investor......I like this little article.

Here's why the stock market may surprise everyone and 'melt-up'

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/here...-surprise-everyone-and-melt-up-163927532.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)
"Amidst the expanding number of Wall Street bears right now, there is Chris Harvey, Wells Fargo Securities head of equity strategy.

The nearly 30-year markets veteran is staying bullish on his outlook for stocks despite the naysayers looking for market plunges into year-end. Harvey is calling for the S&P 500 to end the year at 4,825, or up 8% from current levels.

For Harvey, there continues to be several key drivers of higher stock prices still in play.

"Our 4,825 call is what we call an equity market melt-up," Harvey said on Yahoo Finance Live.

Harvey explained, "One of the things we want to tell clients and investors is that we have history on our side. We look back to 1990 and looked at periods where the equity market was up double-digits in the first eight months of the year. We had nine such instances, and in every single one of those periods the equity market continued to move higher. It was as little as one, as high as 18. We like those odds. We think the fundamentals are also on our side. We think EPS numbers ho higher. We think corporations have been very conservative, and we think ultimately price follows earnings."

To be sure, Harvey's upbeat call on stocks is the contrarian point by most of his peers on the Street as the Morning Brief newsletter discusses.

Deutsche Bank strategist Binky Chadha recently cautioned on the chance for a near-term correction in markets. Bank of America's Savita Subramanian has also issued a warning on the market of her own. Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson told Yahoo Finance Live a 10% correction lurks.

Stifel strategist Barry Bannister highlighted back in June the potential for the S&P 500 to hit 3,800 before the end of the year.

So the bearish strategists are out in full force, and it would appear money managers are finally beginning to take notice.

Global growth expectations have continued to "fall markedly" in September, according to the latest survey of fund managers out of Bank of America. The survey found that economic growth expectations are at their lowest level since April 2020.

BofA points out that global profit expectations have also fallen "markedly" this month. Profit expectations are at their lowest level since May 2020. The September survey marked a 29 percentage point drop in profit expectations compared to August.

Further, a net 22% of those surveyed by BofA expect profit margins of companies to continue to worsen in coming months. That is up from 15% in August.

Nevertheless, Wall Fargo's Harvey contends the backdrop is ripe to be aggressive on cyclical stocks.

"We want to have more cyclical exposure into this melt-up," Harvey said, adding his firm recently upgraded their outlook for the media/entertainment sector while downgrading the software space."

MY COMMENT

The more and more people jump on the NEGATIVE wagon.....and lower expectations of profits and earnings.....the HIGHER the PROBABILITY that earnings will.....once again.....outperform the expectations of the so called experts. As a long term investor.....I will bet against all those MORONS....every time.

I CONTINUE to be fully invested for the long term as usual.

 

Zukodany......the analysts NEVER win. They happen to be right at times about the very short term environment....but they are ALWAYS wrong about the long term. Of course.....they dont care about the long term....it is all about short term trading and trying to make trading profits.

 

My future net worth...likes this little article.

US Short More Than 5M Houses, But Construction Can't Match Demand

https://www.newsmax.com/us/home-construction-housing-starts-supply/2021/09/14/id/1036376/

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"The supply of U.S.homes for sale is reportedly near a record low as the gap between supply and demand widens.


CNBC, citing new research from Realtor.com, reported Tuesday the nation is short 5.24 million homes, an increase of 1.4 million from the 2019 gap of 3.84 million.

According to the news outlet, census data found 12.3 million American households were formed from January 2012 to June 2021, but only 7 million new single-family homes were built during that time.

Household formation is when an individual moves out of a shared living situation.

A prime factor in the lag in single-family home construction is a labor shortage that began well before the COVID-19 pandemic, which then worsened it, the news outlet reported.

Supply chain disruptions in the past year have pushed prices for building materials higher, and as pandemic-induced demand soared, prices for land increased as well.

"The pandemic has certainly exacerbated the U.S. housing shortage, but data shows household formations outpaced new construction long before COVID," Realtor.com chief economist Danielle Hale told the news outlet. "Put simply, new construction supply hasn't been meeting demand over the last five years."

"Millennials, many of whom are now in their 30s and even 40s, have debunked the industry's 'renter generation' expectations."

Single-family home construction has been rising steadily since it bottomed in 2009 but is not as high as it was just before the housing boom, and is running at the slowest pace since 1995, CNBC reported, citing census data.

The snail pace comes as the largest generation enters its typical home buying years.

"Despite the extraordinary efforts of our trade partners, the supply chain issues that have plagued the industry throughout the pandemic have increased during the second half of the year," Ryan Marshall, the CEO of homebuilding giant PulteGroup, said in a statement, CNBC reported.

"We continue to work closely with our suppliers, but shortages for a variety of building products, combined with increased production volumes across the homebuilding industry, are directly impacting our ability to get homes closed to our level of quality over the remainder of 2021."

Other builders are citing the same issues, and stocks of the builders has been trading lower in recent days, CNBC reported.

With the shortage comes rising prices for new and existing homes — and at a record pace, CNBC reported.

For new construction, homes with a median value of $300,000 represented 32% of builder sales in the first half of 2021, down from 43% during the same period in 2018, the news outlet reported.


"No matter how you frame the scenario, it will take a more meaningful shift in the pipeline to meet demand in the foreseeable future," Hale told the news outlet."

MY COMMENT

YES......I always considered the media line about the MILLENIALS preferring experiences and that they were NOT going to care about owning a house as.......BALONEY. They will follow the course of every generation....including wanting to own a house.

It is an important part of TOTAL NET WORTH....to own a home. i am personally looking forward to my....free and clear......home being a more and more significant portion of my net worth as time moves forward. A personal home.....real estate....is a critical part of any financial plan. On the PLUS side....mortgage rates continue at HISTORIC LOW levels.

 

Well I am back home and able to check my account today. I guess I was lucky to.......not be able to look at my account...... on a number of RED days while I was away. If I dont look....I can just pretend they did not happen.

I was STRONGLY in the green today......but.....got beat by the SP500 by 0.24%.

Since I have not looked at my account since early last week I was curious how I am doing year to date....so I calculated it. I am +21.58% year to date.....versus.....the SP500 which is at +19.29% year to date. I am very happy with where I am......but.....the SP500 is ALSO doing very nicely....nothing wrong with +19.29% at mid September.

I dont remember my exact all time account high.....but I am about 1.4% down from that high point a few weeks ago. This.....to me....just shows the very MINOR nature of the drop we have seen over the past 5-7 market days.

 

Yeah Emmett......you have now seen the light.......the POWER of long term investing.......PLUS.....the peace of mind of doing nothing. BUT....of course.....you were mostly long term before anyway.....so this is nothing new for you.

It is nice to be long term and not have to ever do anything. While I was gone for the past week......I did not look at my account once....by choice. I prefer to NOT look at accounts on a smart phone and I do not carry my......random number token......that I need to look at Schwab accounts when I travel. I do follow the markets daily of course.....but do not check my accounts. They are more than capable of taking care of themselves.....without my help.

 

It REALLY is this simple......three KEYS to accumulating over $1MILLION during your lifetime.

3 realistic paths to retiring a millionaire: Start early, invest boldly, stay the course

https://www.usatoday.com/story/mone...c-paths-to-a-millionaire-retirement/49084047/

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Some pipe dreams are never likely to come true, such as getting drafted to play on a professional sports team or winning a lottery jackpot. Other pipe dreams are much more achievable than you might think – such as retiring with a million dollars.

Here are three ways to get to that million. For best results, if possible, act on all three.

1. Start early
The sooner you start investing for your future, the better – even if you're only, say, 20 years old. The longer your money has to grow, the more it can grow for you, so your earliest invested dollars are your most powerful ones.

Check out the table below, which shows the power of time with a single $1,000 investment (not $1,000 per year). It assumes an average annual growth rate of 8%, which is a bit conservative, as the average stock market return over long periods is close to 10%.

Over This Period...

$1,000 Will Grow to:

5 years

$1,469

10 years

$2,159

15 years

$3,172

20 years

$4,661

25 years

$6,848

30 years

$10,063

35 years

$14,785

40 years

$21,724

45 years

$31,920

50 years

$46,902

55 years

$68,914

60 years

$101,257

Calculations by author.

2. Invest aggressively
You're probably not going to average 8% annual growth if you're socking away lots of dollars in a bank account or certificates of deposit (CDs), or even most bonds because interest rates these days are extremely low, often well below the rate of inflation. There's a chance that interest rates will rise and stay at high levels for much of your investing time frame, but don't count on that.

Instead, count on the fact that, overall, stocks have outperformed bonds over most long periods. According to the research of University of Pennsylvania professor Jeremy Siegel, stocks outperformed bonds in 96% of all 20-year holding periods between 1871 and 2012, and in 99% of all 30-year holding periods.

It's also important to invest relatively large sums regularly, for best results. The table below shows how much you might amass if you do.

Growing at 8% for

$10,000 Invested Annually

$15,000 Invested Annually

$20,000 Invested Annually

5 years

$63,359

$95,039

$126,718

10 years

$156,455

$234,683

$312,910

15 years

$293,243

$439,865

$586,486

20 years

$494,229

$741,344

$988,458

25 years

$789,544

$1,184,316

$1,579,088

30 years

$1,223,459

$1,835,189

$2,446,918

Calculations by author.

3. Stay inspired and stay the course

Finally, once you start socking away money for your future, it's critical to keep doing so. It's very easy to get distracted or discouraged if you don't see big results right away. And you most likely won't see big results right away. Check the tables above, and you'll see that the big growth happens in later years – but you have to put in the earlier years to get to the later ones.

Becoming much wealthier is very likely within your reach, especially if you have many years until retirement. But even if it's just a decade away, you may be able to improve your future financial security to a meaningful degree."

MY COMMENT

For those that are in their 20's and 30's.......the future is GOLDEN if you can do all three of the above. What is ESPECIALLY GOLDEN....is to do all three of the above in a taxable brokerage account in addition to putting money away in your 401K or other retirement vehicle. It may not seem like it at first....or during down periods in the markets......but over the long term the results are practically GUARANTEED.

At a young age you can afford to be AGGRESSIVE......all in 100% in stocks and funds. BUT....aggressive does not mean STUPID. You dont have to hit a home run.....all you need to do is hit singles......as in using a simple Index Fund like the SP500 for life.

 

My take on the FED.......over the next month or two. I dont believe the FED will do anything while......TAX AND SPENDING....bills are still up in the air in congress. I believe we are looking at at least 1-2 months for this issue to be settled.......in some way. My feeling is that it would be supremely STUPID for the FED to act before it is known what the tax structure........and the possible impact of that tax structure will be on business and the economy....... under whatever bill passes. So.....assuming at least 1-2 months for the TAX AND SPENDING bills to sort out......we should be free of any move by the FED for at least that amount of time.

OF COURSE.......doing something supremely STUPID.......is often the norm for government and quasi-government institutions like the FED.

 

We had some discussion about Amazon LAGGING the markets this year....a while back.

When will Amazon stock skyrocket again?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/when-will-amazon-stock-skyrocket-again-175145399.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)
"Amazon's stock (AMZN) has been stuck in the penalty box for most of 2021 as investors see what new CEO Andy Jassy has up his sleeves and the company's growth slows after a big 2020 as people shopped more online at the height of the pandemic.

Veteran tech analyst Mark Mahaney of EvercoreISI thinks Amazon's stock has a ways to go before it begins a sustained upward ascent.

"Amazon's stock is waiting for an unlock," Mahaney said on Yahoo Finance Live. "Amazon is going into another investment cycle, particularly related to retail infrastructure and distribution. They are really trying to lock in one-day delivery, and what I call super same day delivery. If they can show that they can get a return on that, which I think they will and will show accelerated spending from customers, then investors will look beyond near-term margin pressure and the stock still go up. That's what we are waiting for, and we'll get that unlock some time in the next six to 12 months."

The pressures on Amazon's stock as investors weigh its investment cycle outcomes are pretty evident.

Amazon shares are up a mere 5% year-to-date, badly lagging the double-digit gains for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500.

The stock is also the worst member of the closely tracked FAANG [Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google] complex. Top-performing Google has notched a 62% gain year-to-date as investors have been impressed with growth at YouTube and in cloud services.

Zooming out on a Yahoo Finance Plus chart, Amazon's stock has basically flat-lined since early July 2020. From March 2020 (height of the pandemic hysteria and lows for the broader stock market) to July 2020, the stock had appreciated some 68% as traders braced for a major acceleration in Amazon's growth.

MY COMMENT

Yes it is OBVIOUS that the company is......totally.....in capital and employee investment mode at the moment and has been for a while. In the past the company has NEVER been a........shrinking violet......when it comes to plowing money into the business for future growth.

The KEY will be realizing the pay-off from this investment. I am guessing they will get that pay-off.......but.....if they dont watch out.

The OTHER.......obvious.....kicker for the stock would be a STOCK SPLIT. Unfortunately the company seems to have BLINDERS on when it comes to this issue. Lets hope the new management takes a fresh look and realizes the benefits of a split to the company and shareholders.

I have ZERO plans to sell any of my Amazon holding........I will remain an investor on the assumption that the company and their management know best how to prepare for the future.

 

Great post above TireSmoke.

One difference now compared to the past is the constant media and social media. As baby boomers we did NOT have the media constantly over-analyzing everything we did like you see today. I really dont see much difference between the young today and what they are doing in terms of buying a home, student loans, etc, etc.

Most people that I knew in my generation were not buying a house at very young ages. Most of the people that I knew were buying their first home between about age 26 and early 30's......same as today. AND....most people I knew back in the 1970's.....were in fact......coming out of college with student loan debt. I had about $7500 from grad school and law school. Most of my friends as undergraduates or graduate students had between $6000 and $12,000 in student loans. It is all relative. The average starting salary for a college grad back in my day in the mid to late 1970's was about $7200 to $9600 per year. Compare that to the average student loan debt now.....about $35,000.....and the current starting salary that a graduate earns.....which I would guess is between about $30,000 to $42,000 per year.

WOW....you started investing at age 21....that is AMAZING and very rare. Congratulations for being so self aware and for securing your future by understanding the POWER of investing at an early age. AND......it is GREAT PARENTING......to make sure your kids get started right in life, get educated, and are taught basic financial and investing. MENTORING by parents.......or others.....is critical to helping kids get started on the right foot in life.

 

This little article is so true.....buying is so easy.....selling....not so much.

Leaving on Bad Terms

https://humbledollar.com/2021/09/leaving-on-bad-terms/

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"I HAVE A RELATIVE—let’s call her Jane. Last year, in the early days of the pandemic, Jane had the foresight to buy shares in vaccine maker Moderna. With the benefit of hindsight, it was a smart decision.

But it wasn’t a difficult one, in Jane’s view. It was no secret that the company was working on a COVID-19 vaccine. It was also clear that vaccines would be in high demand. That made the investment case clear. Jane was right. Since then, Moderna’s shares have risen tenfold. This year, it’s been the single best-performing stock in the S&P 500.

Jane is a happy investor—but she also has a problem: Deciding when to sell has turned out to be much tougher than deciding to buy. She could, of course, sell now and declare victory. Who wouldn’t be happy with a tenfold gain? But then again, that might be premature. Moderna has lots of other drugs in its pipeline and might be just getting started.

To be sure, this is a good problem to have. Still, it isn’t an easy decision—and it turns out that Jane isn’t alone. According to a recent paper titled “Selling Fast and Buying Slow,” professional investors struggle with the same issue. That is, they struggle more with selling than buying.

The paper’s researchers selected a group of more than 700 large, professionally managed portfolios, each averaging nearly $600 million. These included pensions, university endowments and the like. Then they examined the trades in these portfolios over a 16-year period. What they found was surprising.

First, despite the mantra—and the data—that “active management underperforms,” the data revealed that active managers actually display significant skill when buying. The average stock they purchased went on to outperform by more than one percentage point over the next year. While that might not sound like a lot, consistent outperformance by a margin like that would be notable. That was the first surprising finding.

The second finding was that these same investors—who were so skilled at buying—completely fell apart when it came to selling. While their purchases outperformed, their sales underperformed by almost a percentage point over the next year, meaning the managers would have been better off selling a random selection of other stocks that they held.

The researchers wondered how this could be the case—that the same investors who were so good at buying had such a hard time with selling. They were seemingly two sides of the same coin. The authors’ conclusion: “an asymmetric allocation of limited cognitive resources towards buying and away from selling.”

In other words, selling isn’t fundamentally harder than buying. Instead, investors simply think harder and put more effort into buying decisions, and that’s why those results are better. How were the researchers able to prove this? In studying millions of trades, they were able to identify four key patterns, each of which supports their conclusion:

1. When portfolio managers used more up-to-date information, they made better decisions. The study found that investors weren’t uniformly bad at selling decisions. One situation in which they did measurably better was when companies issued quarterly earnings reports. On those specific days—when there was more current data available—portfolio managers made much better decisions. Selling decisions on earnings release dates actually outperformed—proof that good selling decisions can be made, but they need to be made using more current data.

2. When portfolio managers saw a stock as being important, they made better decisions. How did the researchers know if a stock was important to a manager? The proxy they used was the stock’s percentage weight in the portfolio, the logic being that stocks with bigger weightings have more impact on a portfolio’s overall results and thus were more important. Sure enough, managers made better decisions with these more heavily weighted stocks. In other words, when they felt it was important enough, portfolio managers put in the time to make a better decision, and those efforts paid off.

3. When portfolio managers took their eye off the fundamentals, they made worse decisions. The data revealed that portfolio managers were much more apt to sell a stock that, in the recent past, had either outperformed or underperformed by a wide margin. In other words, instead of logically evaluating a stock’s prospects—as investors are taught to do—portfolio managers spent time looking in the rearview mirror. While it might seem like a good idea to sell a stock that’s recently outperformed (because it might now be overpriced) or that’s recently underperformed (because it might indicate a problem at the company), it turns out that, on average, these judgments end up hurting rather than helping.

4. When portfolio managers were feeling stressed, they made worse decisions. How could the researchers have known when managers were under stress? The proxy they used was recent performance. If a fund had been doing poorly, they presumed that the portfolio manager would be feeling stress. During those periods, selling decisions measurably underperformed.

What does all this mean for individual investors? I draw a few conclusions. First, I see this as another reason to steer clear of trading individual stocks and to instead choose index funds. That can insulate you from agonizing decisions, like Jane’s challenge with her Moderna shares.

For better or worse, index funds that own Moderna stock right now aren’t giving it any thought; they’re simply holding it. Over the long term, that might help or it might hurt. But according to multiple studies, on average it seems to help. That is, it helps to remove the human element.

This research helps illustrate why. Investing is a psychological minefield. If even the most sophisticated fund managers—those running half-billion-dollar accounts for pensions and endowments—are susceptible to the challenges outlined above, then no one is immune. When you own an index fund, on the other hand, you can sidestep a large part of that minefield. But what if you already own some individual stocks? Then what? I see a number of useful lessons.

First, treat selling with as much deliberation as buying. This seems like it ought to be obvious. But as the authors point out, investors put more effort into buying than selling because buying is inherently more enjoyable. The hunt for new ideas is a discovery process, and it’s interesting. Selling, on the other hand, tends to be viewed as more of a housekeeping chore—to raise cash for a withdrawal, to reallocate to a new idea, or to rebalance a portfolio.

Second, map out a plan with decision rules for selling shares. That can help you avoid reacting to anecdotes, snippets of news or recent performance. You could, for example, employ a dollar-cost averaging approach to sales. Instead of trying to make judgments about where a stock is going, simply make a schedule to sell incrementally and mechanistically.

Third, consider how each stock fits into your overall portfolio. If it’s a large position that ends up distorting your portfolio’s overall balance and that you’re thinking of selling, that’s worth more of your attention than a small holding. A small holding won’t hurt much if it underperforms—but it might help a lot if it outperforms, as explained below.

Finally, and maybe most counterintuitively, don’t cavalierly sell small positions just because of their modest size. One of the key ways you can go wrong when you sell a stock is to sell a winner prematurely. Imagine, for example, if you’d sold a small position in Apple or Amazon five years ago. In both cases, recent performance had been strong, and they might have looked overpriced. And yet they went on to deliver such strong results that even a small holding could have made a big difference to your results.

If all of this sounds like a lot of work, I agree. I think that helps explain the study’s core finding, that investors tend to give short shrift to selling decisions. It isn’t that people can’t sell well. It’s just exhausting. But if you venture down that road, I hope the above guidelines are of some help."

MY COMMENT

I agree completely with the above. Buying is FUN....selling is NOT FUN. When you sell you are cutting lose an old friend....a stock that gave you great gains. OR.....you are cutting lose a loser......and.....that is no fun so people tend to put if off and HOPE for better performance in the future rather than selling.

It is ALL.....one big exercise in PSYCHOLOGY. I tend to be DECISIVE in buying and selling.......primarily because that is just my underlying personality. I do agree that selling should.....in theory....be based on the same sort of ........FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS......as buying a stock. It is a good idea to evaluate ACTUAL performance of individual holdings...perhaps once a year.....and to evaluate your reasons for owning the business to begin with when you bought it and going forward.

It is EASY to fool yourself or passively think a holding is doing ok when it is not. I have had a few times in my life when I thought some stock was doing great....but.....when I evaluated the ACTUAL performance compared to an average like the SP500......I saw that my money in that stock had been under-performing for years.

 

NICE.......red open today. At least ALL the averages are consistent. RUN, run, run.....for the hills....it is a correction. Wait, what.....we are ONLY down a few percent.......from the all time highs. NEVER-MIND.

The past week or so as well as.....today.....feels like the same market we have lived with for the past 4-6 months. It has been a constant FIGHT to steadily move up. YET....in spite of all the negativity and fear mongering over that time.....4-6 months.....the markets are UP SIGNIFICANTLY. Yes....I do believe investors are exhausted at the moment. I think society in general is exhausted at the moment. News overload, media overload, government overload, life overload.......the modern world. At least you do have a choice......the OFF BUTTON.

 

HERE is the short term economic data that no one really will care about.

Jobless claims: Another 332,000 individuals filed new claims last week

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/weekly-jobless-claims-week-ended-september-11-2021-190708680.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"New weekly jobless claims rose from a pandemic-era low last week, pointing to sustained improvements in the labor market's recovery.

The Labor Department released its weekly jobless claims report on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main metrics from the print, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:

• Initial unemployment claims, week ended September 11: 332,000 vs. 322,000 expected and a revised 312,000 during prior week
  
• Continuing claims, week ended September 4: 2.665 million vs. 2.740 million expected and 2.783 million during prior week
  

Initial jobless claims had reached their lowest level since March 2020 at the start of September, as the pace of those newly unemployed edged closer to pre-pandemic standards. New jobless claims had come in at a rate of around 220,000 per month throughout 2019.

The four-week moving average for weekly new claims has also moved to the lowest level in 18 months, coming in at about 335,750 as of last week. This metric helps smooth out some of the volatility in the weekly figures, and has been on a clear downward path throughout the year. The continued drop in new claims has also underscored the fact that labor shortages and difficulties in hiring have been the bigger drag on the labor market in recent months, rather than firings and separations.

The number of individuals still unemployed and claiming benefits over a longer period of time has also come down alongside the drop in new filers. As of Aug. 28, the total number of claimants across state and federal programs was just over 12.1 million, marking an increase of nearly 180,000 from the prior week. However, the overall trend in total claimants has been on the decline, and during the same week last year, total claimants were at more than 30.3 million.

And these recent total claimants sums understate the real-time drop in total claimants, given the data is reported on a delay of several weeks. As of Sept. 6, federal pandemic-era unemployment benefits previously authorized by Congress expired across all states.

This included programs like Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, which provided benefits for gig workers and contractors who did not qualify for regular state programs, and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation, which offered extended benefits to those that exhausted regular state insurance. A total of 8.9 million Americans were claiming benefits between these two programs as of mid-August, comprising the clear majority of total claimants at that point.

While some economists and policymakers have suggested the end of enhanced federal unemployment benefits might catalyze a broader return to work, others have been more skeptical, considering the ongoing concerns around the coronavirus.

"Unfortunately Delta appears to have left workers uncomfortable returning to the workforce," Bank of America economist Michelle Meyer wrote in a note on Wednesday. "All eyes are on whether the broader expiration of UI [unemployment insurance] benefits will prompt greater labor participation in the coming weeks.""

Retail sales post surprise gain as consumers show strength despite delta fears

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...ugust-vs-expected-decline-of-08-25/ar-AAOvNVL

• Retail sales rose 0.7% in August versus expectations for a 0.8% decline.
• Excluding autos, sales increased 1.8% versus the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.1% gain.
• Weekly jobless claims increased to 332,000 versus the estimate for 320,000.

"Retail sales posted a surprise gain in August despite fears that escalating Covid cases and supply chain issues would hold back consumers, the Census Bureau reported Thursday.

Sales increased 0.7% for the month against the Dow Jones estimate of a decline of 0.8%.

A separate economic report showed that weekly jobless claims increased to 332,000 for the week ended Sept. 11, according to the Labor Department. The Dow Jones estimate was for 320,000.

Economists had expected that consumers cut back their activity as the delta variant continued its tear through the U.S. Persistent supply chain bottlenecks also were expected to hold back spending as in-demand goods were hard to find.

The pandemic's impact did show up in sales at bars and restaurants, which were flat for the month though still 31.9% ahead of where they were a year ago.

However, sales were strong for most areas during the month, when back-to-school shopping generally results in a pickup in activity, especially so this year as schools prepared to welcome back students after a year of remote learning.

The headline number would have been even better without a 3.6% monthly drop in auto-related activity; excluding the sector, sales rose 1.8%, also well above the 0.1% expected gain.

With fears rising over the pandemic, shoppers turned online, with nonstore sales jumping 5.3%. Furniture and home furnishing also saw a healthy 3.7% increase, while general merchandise sales rose 3.5%.

Electronics and appliances stores saw a 3.1% drop, while sporting goods and music stores fell 2.7%.

The numbers overall reflected a more resilient consumer, with sales up 15.1% from the same period a year ago.

The retail upside surprise was tempered slightly with a disappointing read on jobless claims.

Initial filings increased 20,000 from a week ago after posting a fresh pandemic-era low. Still, the four-week moving average, which accounts for weekly volatility, declined to 335,750, a drop of 4,250 that brought the figure to its lowest point since March 14, 2020, at the pandemic's onset.

© Provided by CNBC
The claims total came under heavy seasonal adjustments, as the unadjusted figure showed a drop in filings of 23,331 to 262,619.

Continuing claims also declined, falling by 187,000 to 2.66 million, also a new low since Covid hit. The four-week moving average nudged lower to about 2.81 million.

© Provided by CNBC
However, those receiving compensation under all programs actually increased just ahead of the expiration of enhanced federal jobless benefits. That total, though Aug. 28 and thus before the expiration, rose by 178,937 to 12.1 million.

In a separate economic report, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve reported that its manufacturing activity index rose 11 points to 30.7, representing the percentage difference between firms reporting expanding activity against those seeing contraction. That number was well ahead of the Dow Jones estimate of 18.7."

MY COMMENT

The employment data is ok. The retail sales data is very good. AND....that data......AS USUAL....shows that the experts are uniformly WRONG in what they predict. About all you can say is......the economy and the recovery WILL continue to be erratic for the next 12-24 months.

 

The current markets and the current short term analysis by all the....."experts".......is typical short term stuff. FLUFF......NOISE......CHAFF......OPAQUE.

Stock market news live updates: Wall St. mixed as traders dissect jobless claims, unexpected retail sales jump

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-september-16-2021-221447284.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Wall Street was mixed in Thursday's early trade, after a stronger-than-expected report on retail sales suggested consumer spending held up despite concerns over the Delta variant, as jobless claims held near a pandemic-era low.

Traders weighed economic data showing an unexpected rise in spending last month, even as the latest wave of the coronavirus spread across the U.S. The Commerce Department's August retail sales report showed overall sales rose by 0.7% on the month after a downwardly revised 1.8% drop in July. Consensus economists were looking for a 0.7% drop, according to Bloomberg data.

Meanwhile, new unemployment claims posted an unexpected but marginal gain, rising to 332,000 but holding within view of COVID-19 era lows.

The latest data served as another indicator of the relative strength in economic activity after an initial reopening surge in late spring and summer. While many economists have agreed the overall trend is of decelerating growth, the actual extent of the deceleration remains to be seen.

This uncertainty has also left equity investors closely monitoring the incoming data for signals of how the economic backdrop could impact the earnings picture for major companies. Amid concerns including the Delta variant, ongoing supply chain constraints, labor shortages and a potential policy pivot by the Federal Reserve, the S&P 500 has so far fallen 0.9% in September.

"Equity markets have been positive for seven consecutive months, which is quite rare ... So yes, investors are rightly concerned," Akshata Bailkeri, Bruderman Asset Management equity analyst, told Yahoo Finance. "But the the reason why we're seeing this is because these earnings behind a lot of these companies are continuing to grow, and that's really what's driving these index values higher."

As FactSet pointed out in its latest weekly report, consensus analysts are still looking for S&P 500 earnings growth of nearly 28% for the third quarter. While a deceleration from the more than 80% growth rate posted in the second quarter of this year, that would still mark the third-highest year-over-year increase in earnings for the index since 2010. Third-quarter earnings reporting season is set to pick up next month.

"I don't think statistics or just how long it's been is a good reason [for a market correction]. Generally, you need some sort of a negative catalyst,” Randy Frederick, Charles Schwab's managing director of trading derivatives, told Yahoo Finance. "What we have right now is not negative catalysts so much as a lack of positive catalysts."

"I think what has caused some of this more recent volatility is that we've had a number of Wall Street firms that have downgraded both GDP estimates and corporate earnings estimates," he added. "Those are just forecasts; they may turn out not to be right. Certainly the last two quarters, the earnings results have substantially outperformed the expectations bar." "

MY COMMENT

I ACTUALLY agree with much of this little article. ESPECIALLY this part:

I don't think statistics or just how long it's been is a good reason [for a market correction]. Generally, you need some sort of a negative catalyst,” .......... "What we have right now is not negative catalysts so much as a lack of positive catalysts."

"I think what has caused some of this more recent volatility is that we've had a number of Wall Street firms that have downgraded both GDP estimates and corporate earnings estimates," ........."Those are just forecasts; they may turn out not to be right. Certainly the last two quarters, the earnings results have substantially outperformed the expectations bar."

In my world....the above is the ACTUAL REALITY for investors.......NOT.....all the day to day baloney being put out there in the media bout how we are past due for a correction. Fortunately for investors......when or if we have a correction is not a "vote" or a "poll". AND......do I really care if we are going to have a correction.....NO. This sort of blather is TOTALLY IRRELEVANT to long term investors......and......the returns that long term investors WILL show over decades of investing and compounding.