Daily Discussion - Main Discussion thread

depends who you ask ofc, shorts are having a field day off of this pullback move since the ATH.



i'm likely exiting this at today's cash open to lock in these gainz i've captured so far, as i can see a bit of a snapback counter move today as markets are working into overextended territory in the short term at least. nothing moves in a straight lines up or down. so, a counter move would kinda be expected soon-ish. thinking a move up to even backtest that 50dma could be in the cards. then a failure off of that would resume the move back to a lower low. a vix spike to 30 or so would be really juicy for me personally to play the inevitable ded cat bounce.

keep in mind that the -5% pullback level in the cash spx is getting very close (4320ish). i think a break of this level convincing could have us testing the 200dma at 4200ish. while i'm not personally anticipating a significant pullback/correction yet, but i will re-access things once we hit my targets if they do fire off.

but so far i won't lie, i've really enjoyed this ride lower in the eminis since sept 3rd (the last ath in the market )

 

...annnnnnd i'm out at 4345 (basically the cash open low). don't think this is done just yet here, but some counter move here would be expected after 8 days down in the past 10

 

Fear & Greed Index currently reading 22, nice. We'll see a dip below 20, then it is buy time. You get good bounces below 20.

Think this month will end weak like March. A similarity you can check out is NDX had 5 straight down days this month, just like March. That was a pretty ugly time for the Nasdaq as it pulled back about 10%.

Anyway, that March pullback was recovered in a month, and I'm thinking it won't be much different this time (all assuming we get there, first). This year's trend is up, just look at the monthly chart. The February/March pullback in the Nasdaq never even finished below the January close. This market recovers well.

I've been thinking we could see VIX touch 40 in the next week; that would get it to the top of the monthly chart's Bollinger band.

Another 5% pullback takes QQQ closer to its 34-week ema, around 345.

 

ty chris! means so much coming form you sir! <3

whelp, when it rains in pours sometimes amirite? had to head off shortly after cash open this AM because my old man's been feeling a bit unwell (hence me being largely busy swamped running errands today). felt like it was maybe a bit premature of me to close out the spuz shorts when i did. but, as i had mentioned earlier, i'm not really much of a greedy trader tbh. i'm happy with just a few grand here and there and be done with trading for weeks or months at a time lol. but, since i really honest to goodness had a really high conviction on this pullback in the US market coming off the ATH, i felt like the risk/reward was maybe the best i was gonna see for a long time to come. so, did not want to just sit on my hands and watch the move, and not even fucking participate in it. so, i stepped in and finally put my dollars where my intuition was. hence, putting on the shrots in the eminis since sept. 3rd.

anyway, long story short here -- i actually took a bit of a gamble (which i'm reeeeeally not a gambler of any sort), and i certainly never like forcing a trade just because i feel like the move hasn't fully exhausted itself. i feel that can often lead to bad judgement calls and thus losing one's shirt which i'm all about risk management and playing shit safe.

but, anyway, i did end up re-entering on the spuz at 4358 just before i headed off this AM mostly because i felt like today could be a relatively notable day on the downside. turns out to this point that has held true (knock on wood).

sometimes the markets are just trending (like today) this imo is really the perfect day to basically put on a trade that you feel high conviction on and just ride it, with tight stops so you can lock in those gainz. anyway, added another 13k to this overall move. which has captured over -200 handles of downside in the emini spuz. feels good ngl, considering i've been MIA and out of the trading world for so long now.

 

Looks like the market finally paid attention to this today Probably won't turn into anything as impactful as Lehman but who knows lol, definitely something to keep an eye on

 

On for just a quick bit here this evening before I hit the hay... Totally forgot to make the quick mention of this in here. Think I already did on a discord chat I'm in. But, just as a quick disclosure here in case anyone was curious. I had exited all of my 7 remaining short contracts on the eminis just about an hour before the cash market had closed today, as I had to head off to deliver a few things for my old man (since as I had mentioned earlier today, he has been feeling a bit unwell lately). As I wasn't going to be able to monitor the trade for that last hour of the day. Exited at 4299, which as crazy as it might sound was not very far off from the day's low haha. Finished up to almost 50k on the day, and 80k on my overall short spuz trades since Sept. 3rd.


Had no idea if the market was going to continue legging lower in that final hour, but admittedly I did feel as the market wasn't really break down convincingly to new lows going into that 3pm hour, it seemed to me like there was the risk of a short covering bounce going into the cash close. Which, low and behold, as I came back home a few hours later to check in on how that final hour did, saw the run up in the final 30 min. of the day haha. As you can imagine, felt p relieved to have exited when I did, and not feel so bad that I was potentially leaving even more $$$ on the table.

Seems like with that final hour rip higher had the cash SPX close back under that -5% pullback level once again amirite, albeit it did break below it briefly intraday. Very interesting. Not suggesting that's gonna end this move down once again. Albeit, I won't lie here, the March pullback where price had dipped below the 50sma, then back to recapture it and move back to print new ATHs is on my mind now again lol. Feel like the market here is in a bit of "proving" mode. In other words -- it's innocent until proven guilty if you will. In that, the market flirting with the 50dma has worked basically all year long on every single dip. It works until it doesn't eh. Nothing goes up or down in a straight line. After 8 down days out of the past 10 (which imo was starting to teeter on "overextended" a bit), felt like some counter move would be expected soon.

Anyway, we shall see what happens from here. But, I'm still in the camp that says that there could be a backtest of that 50dma, that would ultimately fail to recapture above it, and move back down to print lower lows again. For now though, I'm 100% all cash, and just watching from the sidelines if you will. I'll take the near 80k realized profit, and wait until another low risk, high conviction trade presents itself for me once more. For now, I'll be an observer once again.

Good luck to y'all's still trading though! And real sorry for making soooo many doggone posts to this thread! Feel like I've been making this my own personal trade journal of late. Really sorry about that! Feels good to finally be back in the game again after taking such a long break from the trading world. Have yourself a great rest of your week fellas!

 

FDX not too far away from its 52 week lows after reporting earnings

 

SPY target after channel break, 420(ish) after retest? -- FED time. I personally think we may enter a bear market after the retest and if 420 doesn't hold. Time to get long the DXY.

 

oh man, talk about timely executed on that closure of my spuz short on monday. what was the low of this pullback move on the z contract? i don't have my platform open atm to check but think it was just a few handles sub 4300 amirite? had closed out my 7 contracts at 4299 on monday before cash close. had no idea if that was going to be premature on my part again, as the market certainly could have continued legging much lower. sometimes does in a capitulation move. but, i had to close out at 3pm eastern on monday because i had to head off to tend to my old man as he needed things to be delivered to his home. and i just could not babysit the position and monitor the market until i got back much later that evening.

hindsight's 20/20 of course, and no one really knows what the next move will be in the market with absolute 100% certainty 'till after the fact. only when the odds and conviction is strong enough that you feel comfortable enough executing the trade, etc.

for me, it was really that -5% pullback level that i had been eyeing, after the 50dma was breached. felt like if the market couldn't hold below the -5% pullback level then the odds of a ryfor (rip your face off rally) was going to increase bigly time, especially given that the spuz had been down 8 of the past 10 sessions (at the time). so, a bit overextended to say the least.

while i'll admit trades like these don't always happen so perfectly like this one did for me. case in point, not sure i can remember in my recent history where i basically almost top ticked the ATH (missed it by 6 handles) and also almost bottom ticked the pullback low (few handles below 4300 i believe) on the exit.

not too shabby lol. happy to have captured that 250 handle downside move in the spuz.

if the spuz recaptures the 50dma and in convincing fashion, then i prob won't look to re-enter on the short again. at that point, i think the case could be made that a move back to ATHs could be looking a bit more likely than not.

i currently have no positions on atm (haven't since i closed out my shorts on monday). just monitoring it for now! but man, y'all's gotta love these swings up and down if you're a trader though! this recent volatility has been a fucking heaven for traders tbh.

 

Ok. I'm back. After that deep collapse in 2020, it took me UNTIL TODAY to finally recover all my loses and once again be at the newest all time high for my account. I've learned a few things after that experience [I think]. At any rate, it feels nice to be back in the driver's seat once again and feeling wiser about how the market actually works.

 

Not gonna lie, thought we still had a chance for 40 VIX going into the Fed conference. But then I saw this, so ended up closing my insurance, for the next 3 or 4 days.






The setup has certainly been potent over a long period of time. There has not been a loser for the 4-day holding period since 1986. And every instance back to 1982 has closed higher than the entry price at some point in the next 4 days. Of course anything can happen when it comes to the market, but evidence here suggests a substantial upside edge over the next few days.

source: https://quantifiableedges.com/

That's an average 1.4% on Day 4 (would be Tuesday Sep 28).

 

Great to hear! Missed ya 'round here @Frankenstein. Super excited seeing a post from you pop in here today.

 

This may be the low for the rest of the year. Got this channel going back to May; we peeked above then pulled back hard, and now we've peeked below.


In addition to FDX being at the low for the last year (going back to last year's ER coincidentally), I also see DIS is at the low for 2021. And UBER was at the low for the last year but didn't go any lower and got a strong bounce yesterday.

 

Well an hour into this study and we've already got 1.3% from Wednesday's close.

Still need another 1.7% to get the month green.

 

NKE down almost 4% after earnings, the stock has been a little weak lately anyway

 

Here are the notable earnings releases as well as the highest volatility earnings releases due out for next week courtesy of earnings whispers.

And here is the market week ahead thread which is now up on the r/StockMarket subreddit for anyone looking for a quick read over this coming weekend:
https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/puw478/wall_street_week_ahead_for_the_trading_week/

I hope you all have a splendid weekend, and a great trading week ahead.