The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    YES....go, go, go..... oldmanram.

    BUT.....I am going to have to send Emmett and a few of his gang of clowns over to your place some evening to have a little talk....if you keep letting your wife make us look bad with her account gains.
     
  2. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    hugs, not drugs!

    [​IMG]
     
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  3. TireSmoke

    TireSmoke Well-Known Member

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    Welcome back @Dax Martinez !

    Great time to be had right now. I have a similiar setup to you (and age... 34) Lots of years ahead of us!

    401k - S&P500 / large cap fund up over 23% on the year

    Investment account - Up over 51% on the year
    AMD (65%)
    NVDA (25%)
    VGT (9%)
    CHWY (1%)
     
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  4. oldmanram

    oldmanram Well-Known Member

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    I'll have a talk with her investment adviser about that
    Her " Gone Fishing portfolio" approach is killing me !
    Lord knows I don't want "that clown" showing up on a dark night
    Gotta Go
    hold down the fort guys !!!
     
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  5. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    That’s it… I sold PYPL today. Had enough with it… I should’ve done it a while ago when witnessing the whole damn sector; financial AND tech go up, while pypl is going the opposite direction. At this point, it’s over for me and pypl. I had a GREAT run with it for 2 years and made a great return on it, but now with eBay operating on its own and pypl CLEARLY not finding a suitable substitute to fill that big void while adding more to its debt with silly acquisitions and bad ideas - IM DONE.
    I took that money and put it into… well… EBay of course, AMZN & NIKE.
    and that’s all I have to say about THAT!
     
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  6. TireSmoke

    TireSmoke Well-Known Member

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    @zukodany knowing when to bail is the hardest part! I would have dumped Paypal after the Ebay news. A while back I trimmed CHWY and added that to AMD and NVDA... lets say I'd rather be lucky than good!
     
  7. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    good move, zuk. head and shoulders pattern written all over this one. and we know what that means.

    ---

    upload_2021-11-4_9-21-26.png
     
  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I have not been paying any attention to the markets today. When I got home I was afraid that I would find that my gains had backed off. BUT.....NO......I am now up more than before for the day.........if I can just hang in there for a couple more hours.
     
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  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I dont follow PYPL Zukodany.......but.....I do agree with TireSmoke. Knowing when and if to sell is a much harder thing to do than buying a stock. Having a nice run in the stock and a nice profit makes it much easier to sell. You made a lateral move with your money into other investments.......and.....there is no reason you can not consider PYPL in the future if it is warranted.

    You seem to have a good head and feel for investing. Probably a reflection of the fact that you are a......successful...... small business owner and dealer in comic books. WELL DONE.....as usual.
     
    #8289 WXYZ, Nov 4, 2021
    Last edited: Nov 4, 2021
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  10. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    Thanks guys! Yes it was a tough decision to sell it… I’ve over DOUBLED my money with PYPL and then watched it drop to slightly over 60% in profits.. so that was it for me. No mas… I did not flinch when I sold and distributed that money right away to my other positions, that’s a strategy I learned from W… Invest right away and move on. Overall I feel like we have another week or 2 before the market slows down a bit, so how’s a good time to invest in this medium to big cap companies and have less of a buyers remorse as when buying when the market is cold.
    Geez did you see NVDA today? Over 15% and climbing! Must be those WSB boys doings. But hey, as long as it goes up, I ain’t complaining!
     
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  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I might have to update my......possible.....year end gain range for Amazon that I made just this morning. The stock is now at +9.11%. My estimate this morning was for year end +10-14%.

    So lets NOW say........+12-18% by year end.
     
  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Nvidia has been INSANE lately.....Zukodany. Today it is up by +13.85%. Over the past five days it is up by +20.87%. Over the past month it is up by +48.07%. Over the past six months it is up by +110%. Year to date it is up by +131%. Over the past year it is up by +120%. Over the past five years it is up by +1,693%.

    AND....drum roll please....

    Since January of 1999......it is UP by a whopping........+73,756%.

    I guess I should have sold everything back in 1999 and gone all in on Nvidia........NAH......not really. Back than it was selling for 41cents per share.
     
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  13. TireSmoke

    TireSmoke Well-Known Member

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    Looks like everyone is having a good day! NVDA is a monster and a long term hold for me. Up 6.6% on the day and 55% on the year is amazing. It take a little bit of self restraint not to start shopping for a new toy.... but it is going into winter and I don't want to store and stare at it! Holding, compounding for the long term.
     
  14. The Ragin Cajun

    The Ragin Cajun Active Member

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    A couple months back I was trying to decide if I should buy into AMD or Nvidia. Nvidia was about to split and AMD was sitting in the 70's. Here I am today kicking myself for waiting and delaying a decision. I did the exact same thing with UPS / FEDEX a year ago and missed out on both run ups.

    Sometimes over analysis equals paralysis and in this market that can be frustrating!
     
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  15. TireSmoke

    TireSmoke Well-Known Member

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    AMD fell in my lap probably about 6 years ago right before they started the climb from single digits, I added along the way and rode the crazy roller coaster. NVDA was one I rode up as well and sold on the massive pullback then ended up buying back in about a year ago. I have learned that buying and holding is much better than buying and selling! If I would have sat tight I would have much better gains but who hindsight is 20/20. Right now they are on a rampage. AMD has some massive pullbacks that provide good entry points. You can't forecast the future using past results but that has been a very consistent theme! I like both, I am heavier weighted on AMD just due to my low/early entry and letting the winners run. AMD has the merger coming up and NVDA is the king so over the long term it could go to either one but I do know they have strong CEO's and solid business model so I am holding for the long term. If you don't like the volatility I am a strong supporter of VGT.
     
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  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    A BIG BARN-BURNER of a day today for the markets and for my account......well.....I guess for my account. The DOW ended the day in the RED and the SP500 was up only 0.42%.

    I ended the day with a BIG GREEN day today. I also BEAT the SP500 by 2.04%. That is one of the greatest beats on the SP500 that I have had in a long time.

    You must have a really concentrated tech portfolio.....TireSmoke....to be up +6.6% on the day and +55% on the year.

    Is this your entire portfolio?

    AMD (65%)
    NVDA (25%)
    VGT (9%)
    CHWY (1%)

    I see you go by the motto......NO GUTS NO GLORY. Nothing wrong with that as long as you recognize and accept the risk....which you seem to understand.
     
    #8296 WXYZ, Nov 4, 2021
    Last edited: Nov 4, 2021
  17. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I cant match your +55% on the year to date. BUT....I am very satisfied to be at a new all time high and +30% year to date. The SP500 at the close today is at +24.60% year to date.

    Is anyone else anywhere close to the year to date return that TireSmoke has of +55%?

    Another question TireSmoke.....what is the reason for the 1% in CHWY?
     
    #8297 WXYZ, Nov 4, 2021
    Last edited: Nov 4, 2021
  18. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    HERE is the rationale for the markets today.

    Stock market news live updates: S&P, Nasdaq pop to new records while Dow sinks after Fed

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-november-4-2021-221850383.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what i consider important content)

    "Stocks traded mixed on Thursday, with tech stocks and the broader market setting new highs as investors digested the the Federal Reserve's decision to begin paring back some of its monetary policy support as the economic recovery progressed.

    Although the Dow dropped, tech stocks were boosted by Tesla, which set a new record high above $1200 per share, and helped the Nasdaq set a fresh record. The S&P 500 also eked out a new high.

    4:05 p.m. ET: S&P 500 closes at a record high for sixth straight session, powered by jump in tech stocks
    ...............

    "Here were the main moves in markets as of 4:05 p.m. ET:

    • S&P 500 (^GSPC): +19.49 (+0.42%) to 4,680.06

    • Dow (^DJI): -33.35 (-0.09%) to 36,124.23

    • Nasdaq (^IXIC): +128.72 (+0.81%) to 15,940.31

    • Crude (CL=F): -$1.79 (-2.21%) to $79.07 a barrel

    • Gold (GC=F): +$30.90 (+1.75%) to $1,794.80 per ounce

    • 10-year Treasury (^TNX): -5.5 bps to yield 1.5240%"

    11:33 a.m. ET: Small cap and technology stocks could be some of the winners going forward: CIO

    Select areas of the market are poised to benefit as the Federal Reserve remains accommodative in its monetary policy posturing and the economic recovery moves along, and those could include small-cap and technology stocks, according to one strategist.

    "We are seeing momentum right now both in small cap stocks ... and technology stocks," Kevin Mahn, Hennion & Walsh Asset Management president and chief investment officer, told Yahoo Finance Live on Thursday. "And we believe that as we move further and further away from the COVID-19 pandemic and more of the economy starts to open, technology will become an even more critical component of that reopening in areas such as ... artificial intelligence, robotics, the internet of things, fintech, and even 5G. as we try and expand our country's broadband access."

    "So we see more upside potential for small-cap stocks as the economy continues to expand, and as credit conditions remain accommodative, but particularly in those areas of revolutionary technologies." "

    MY COMMENT

    The tech side of the market obviously has the potential to deliver outsize gains for long term investors over many years. That is why I have about half of my portfolio in BIG TECH. I intentionally choose to focus on the best of the best and ONLY on BIG CAP TECH. This has been my investing style for a lifetime.......BIG CAP, DOMINANT companies. My age......72......is also a factor for me now.

    It has been interesting to have lived and invest through the entire.......mainstream........ TECH REVOLUTION....most of which I would date from about 1990 to 2021. In other words the change over from mag card machines and IBM Selectric typewriters and other word processing systems in the business world.....to.....computers........and........the internet revolution in home an business. Obviously computers predate this time period by many decades....but I would say this time span is the key change-over period for business and society.
     
  19. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    year to date, no, but if we use last october as a starting point i'm hovering around 50%.
     
  20. Jwalker

    Jwalker Active Member

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    Trailing twelve months I think I’m about +40%. Didn’t average all my accounts together so it’s a rough estimate. Costco has been crushing it lately!!

    Activision Blizzard has been getting crushed for me and for good reason. Management didnt deliver good guidance due to games being delayed and has cultural problems evidently.. I’m in that aforementioned “tough to sell decision”. I could cut my losses and just roll the proceeds into S&P and be done with it. I still like the company because they have some of the best video games around, but it’s more of a “can they outperform the S&P in the time it takes for them to recover” question then anything.
     
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