That's the Portfolio! I have a 401k with work that is S&P500 based so what started as a little side account has passed my 'retirement account'. The pullbacks are nasty but I just go back and read your posts about holding for the long term!
TireSmoke......how did you end up with just 1% in CHWY? Is that some intentional strategy or just random...some left over small holding.....or a small trial position?
I see that at the end of a BIG week for stocks that the Ten Year Treasury yield is now at 1.455%. So much for those that were talking about skyrocketing interest rates. A good OMEN for stocks. Speaking of OMENS.....I rarely see any mention in the media these days of BLACK SWANS. At the moment I dont see any real or potential changes to the current market conditions. ALL of the negatives are well known and appreciated by investors........as are the positives. it is likely that we will simply NOT see much that is not known now for the next eight market weeks to the end of the year. The next market event will be forth quarter earnings after the first of the year. There will be some data and anticipation of the health of holiday shopping and sales data. Assuming things stay as they are now.....I believe the PROBABILITIES for continued gains are HIGH all the way to year end. The ONLY thing that might change the current conditions are some BLACK SWAN event or happening. Since we are only dealing with eight weeks to year end the......PROBABILITY....of some very negative event coming out of nowhere during that time is low. SO......my view of the markets to year end is STRONGLY POSITIVE. I continue to be fully invested as usual for the long term.
My little weekend real estate condition report for central Texas......local, local, local. In my little area of 4200 homes we seem to have settled into the Fall and Winter market. Currently there are 19 homes for sale out of 4200. Many are in what would have been the lower end neighborhoods in this area 5-8 years ago. The prices have escalated very strongly in those neighborhoods over the past few years. The lowest priced active home is $579,000 with 2200 sq ft.....it is the ONLY home priced in the 500's. In the lower end of the market there are seven homes priced in the 600's. So nearly half the homes for sale are in the low end of the market. On the high end of the market there are three homes above one million with the highest being priced at $2.9MILLION. The higher end homes seem to move a bit quicker than the lower end of the market. I would say on average homes are taking about 3-6 weeks to sell at the moment so some of the pressure to make quick decisions has dissipated for buyers. BUT....it is still a strong market and prices do not seem to be falling...they seem to be stable and steady.
My little neighborhood of about 80 homes is EXTREMELY diverse. This year we have 8 homes in the neighborhood that have lights on the houses celebrating the Festival Of Lights. It is nice to see some "cheer" in the neighborhood at this time of the year.
Well Chewy caught my attention through my daily life of friends and neighbors getting consistent deliveries. I like the website, I like the subscription base, I like the expansion to prescriptions. If it can keep its bearing it should do well... It has been referred to as the 'amazon for pets'. A little skin in the game keeps it on my radar more so than getting lost in the 'watch list'. It is pretty volatile and has taken a beating lately. So pretty much speculation on the long term.
Ok thanks....that is one of the things I was thinking. I have done that in the past....buy a small amount of some stock or fund to make myself follow it more closely.
Lets hope so..... Stocks could soar to new heights in week ahead — even though inflation data may come in hot https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/05/sto...en-though-inflation-data-may-come-in-hot.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what i consider important content) "Key Points Rising prices are a major focus of the markets in the week ahead, as both consumer and producer price inflation measures are reported. Strategists say there’s little to disrupt the markets’ run higher for now, but inflation could eventually become a problem. Investors will watch a parade of central bank speakers. The Federal Reserve recently announced it would taper back its bond purchases starting this month. Stocks could take aim at new highs in the week ahead, even as investors face fresh data that could show the highest year-over-year jump in consumer inflation in more than 30 years. Stocks touched record levels Friday, after a monumental week that included the Federal Reserve’s announcement that it will wind down its bond buying, the first big step away from the easing measures it put in place to fight the pandemic. The S&P 500 gained 2% for the week, endig at a record 4,697. The Dow, also at a new high, rose 1.4% to 36,327, and the Nasdaq jumped 3% to a record 15,971. “The important drivers of the market, I think, remain intact — earnings and interest rates,” said Leo Grohowski, chief investment officer at BNY Mellon Wealth Management. “I think the Fed gave the equity market what it was looking for... which was an awareness of inflation without an overreaction to inflation. Meanwhile we’re still digesting what’s been a really strong earnings season.” The Fed expects to fully wind down its $120 billion-per-month bond purchases by the middle of next year. At that point some economists expect the central bank to start raising interest rates. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell assured markets the central bank still sees inflation as temporary, but that if it proves to be hotter, the Fed would act. “I think investors are sounding the all-clear for the equities market here, at least in the short-term, and it’s hard to argue with. We have more concerns when you take a six-month view,” said David Donabedian, chief investment officer of CIBC Private Wealth Management. “The biggest concern is inflation which we don’t think is transitory,” he added. “I would look for a rate hike almost immediately after the tapering process is done which is mid-2022.” The stickiness of higher prices Donabedian said the concern is that sticky inflation could force the Fed to move sooner to raise interest rates to battle rising prices. The producer price index and consumer price index are reported Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. Economists expect both reports to remain elevated for October. Headline PPI is expected to rise 0.6%, according to Dow Jones. CPI is expected to be the hottest post-pandemic print yet. Headline CPI inflation is expected to rise by 0.6% or 5.9% year-over-year, the fastest pace since December 1990. Core inflation, excluding energy and food, is expected to rise 4.3% year-over-year. “The acceleration in shelter costs is stunning so if you get that, along with energy price increases, we could see a 5.7% [headline gain],” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton. Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, said markets are already expecting the elevated inflation prints. “Markets right now have a certain amount of tunnel vision. Easy money will continue for awhile and even though the Fed has told us they’re not refilling the punch bowl, the party is going to go on for quite some time,” he said. “Right now the path of least resistance is higher.” Fed officials not on same page Central bank speakers will also be a highlight in the week ahead, with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell appearing at two events. On Monday, he is at a Fed conference on gender and the economy. He speaks Tuesday at a virtual conference on diversity and inclusion in economics, finance and central banking, co-hosted by the Federal Reserve Board, Bank of Canada, Bank of England and European Central Bank. There are plenty of other Fed officials speaking as well, including Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida, New York Fed President John Williams and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly. CIBC’s Donabedian said the group of speakers could be important, and it will be key to listen for nuances to their views on rising prices. “You do get some different twists on inflation. While it’s not going to look like an FOMC feud at all, it will look like members are not on the same page on inflation,” he said. Investors will also be watching Congress for any progress on the Biden spending plan, which is meeting opposition in the Senate. “It looks like we’re going to get some sort of vote in the House on the two big fiscal packages,” said Donabedian. He said he expects the House to pass both, and the infrastructure bill should be signed into law. “It does leave open whether the Senate is going to want to make major change to the social spending bill, and there’s a chance that that flops,” he said, noting it has less than a 50% chance of failing. The earnings season is winding down but there are still a number of reports in the coming week, including The Walt Disney Company on Wednesday. Week ahead calendar Monday Earnings: Softbank, Virgin Galactic, Zynga, PayPal, Trip Advisor, AMC Entertainment, Cabot, Lemonade, Marriott Vacations, US Foods, Roblox, Tencent Music Tuesday Earnings: DR Horton, Coinbase, Palantir, Aurora Cannabis, Bayer, Krispy Kreme, DoorDash, Cardinal Health, BioNTech, Poshmark, Unity Software 6:00 a.m. NFIB survey 8:30 a.m. PPI Wednesday Earnings: Walt Disney, Beyond Meat, Adidas, Wendy’s, Bumble, Energizer, Beazer Homes, Allianz, Tencent Holdings, Affirm Holdings, Frontier Group, Kinross Gold 8:30 a.m. Initial jobless claims 8:30 a.m. CPI 10:00 a.m. Wholesale trade 2:00 p.m. Federal budget Thursday Earnings: Brookfield Asset Management, Siemens, Tapestry, Burberry, Lordstown Motors, Edgewell Personal Care Veterans Day Bond market closed Friday Earnings: AstraZeneca 10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment 10:00 a.m. JOLTS" MY COMMENT YES.......as we know.....the market direction is DECIDEDLY positive. The unfortunate thing next week is the fact that about 10-15 of the FED people will be speaking. SO.....more blah, blah, blah....from the people that should just sit down and STFU. I am sure one or more of them will say something that is NOT good for the markets. Fortunately I think the markets will just.......NOT CARE. I am glad to say we have a long way to go to get re-opened and back to normal. That means we have a long way for this EPIC BULL MARKET to continue to run. SO......I will continue to......RIDE THE TRANSCENDENT WAVE.
And speaking of TRANSCENDENT WAVES.......here is another one. The race to $3 trillion: Big Tech keeps getting bigger https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/07/investing/stocks-week-ahead/index.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The trillion-dollar market cap club is starting to get crowded. Microsoft (MSFT) is now worth a smidge more than Apple (AAPL), making the Satya Nadella-led cloud software giant the world's most valuable company. Both companies are worth about $2.5 trillion. Google owner Alphabet (GOOGL) is worth just a touch less than $2 trillion, while Amazon (AMZN) is valued at $1.7 trillion. And don't forget (as if we could) Tesla (TSLA): Elon Musk's electric car giant recently passed the $1 trillion mark and has since surged to a market cap of about $1.25 trillion. These five companies are now collectively worth almost $10 trillion. That's nearly a quarter of the combined $41.8 trillion market cap of the entire S&P 500. It's possible that the S&P 500 could have six companies worth at least $1 trillion at the same time if Meta Platforms, the social media giant formerly known as Facebook (FB), continues to rebound. Meta now has a market valuation of about $930 billion. But given the continued strength in tech, it's altogether possible that all six of these companies could soon each be worth at least $2 trillion, if not more. After all, Microsoft and Apple are knocking on the door of $3 trillion. And other techs, such as chip leader Nvidia (NVDA) and China's Tencent (TCEHY) are moving closer to the trillion dollar market valuation mark. It seems almost unfathomable that so many companies could be worth this much. But earnings growth for many of the top techs continues to be strong, and that is pushing prices higher. Still, the insatiable investor appetite for trillion-dollar techs reminds some market analysts of the Nasdaq froth of the 1990s and early 2000. It could be a warning sign. "Tesla's rally is reminiscent of Cisco's move in 2000, a move that marked the bubble top in 2000," said Mike O'Rourke, chief market strategist with JonesTrading, in a report this month. O'Rourke pointed out that Cisco shares soared about 50% in the first three months of 2000 and analysts at Credit Suisse predicted that Cisco would be the world's first trillion-dollar company. It didn't happen. Cisco, which was worth about $550 billion at the height of tech stock mania two decades ago, is now valued at about $240 billion. Intel, another tech stock leader of the late '90s, has struggled in the past few years and is nowhere close to its 2000 peak valuation. It's proof that becoming a market leader may be easier than staying a market leader. There is no guarantee that the likes of Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet and even Tesla will stay at the top. Newer companies and technologies may come along that could make the list of the world's most valuable firms look a lot different in the early 2040s than it did in 2021." All eyes still on inflation Consumer prices in the United States have soared, largely because of supply chain constraints and higher wages. Overall prices surged 5.4% from a year ago in September, nearly a 30-year high. Price increases at the grocery store and gas pumps were the main culprits. But even the so-called core consumer price index, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, was up 4% in the past 12 months. More data about inflation comes out Wednesday when the federal government issues its Consumer Price Index report for October. Economists are forecasting a slight increase from September levels. With inflation here to stay --— at least for now — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell seemed to suggest that the central bank needs to find a word other than "transitory" to describe higher prices. "Transitory is a word that people have had different understandings of," he said in a press conference after the Fed announced its bond tapering plans. Powell noted that some think it means short-lived, but the Fed uses the term to describe something it believes won't be permanent or persistent. "It's become a word that has attracted a lot of attention that has maybe become distracting," Powell added. Powell also acknowledged that rising prices could be a drag on future economic growth. It also hits people living from paycheck to paycheck the hardest. "We accept accountability and responsibility for inflation in the medium term," he said. "The level of inflation we have right now is not at all consistent with price stability." The market will be looking closely at the CPI numbers to try and get a sense of whether higher prices impact consumer spending just before the holidays — and also for clues about what the latest inflation data might mean for the pace of Fed tapering and eventual rate hikes in 2022." MY COMMENT Ahhhhhhh yes......Cisco.....I remember that time very well. I rode an investment of $25,000 up to $250,000 in Cisco. Than I rode it all the way back down and ended up at......you guessed it......$25,000. What was going on in the 1990's and early 2000's was very different than what is going on now with the big tech companies. I know that people LOVE to do comparisons of different times in history to today.......but.......this Cisco example just does not compute. Back than Cisco was not near as mature of a company as the big tech giants are now. The ONLY comparison that I would make between now and the late 1990's and early 200's would be the meme stocks and Reddit insanity that we saw a few months ago. The DOT-COM boom was basically mostly worthless companies being carried up by MANIA........same as the meme stock stuff we saw a few months ago.
Here is a little article about earnings and a few other relevant topics. You’ve Got to Earn It: Earnings Growth Strong, But Descending https://www.schwab.com/resource-cen...nings-growth-strong-but-descending?cmp=em-QYC (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The third quarter is in the books, but not yet with the final readings for either the economy broadly, or corporate earnings specifically. The first read on third quarter real gross domestic product (GDP) was released on Friday, and it was a disappointment relative to expectations—driven in large part by ongoing global supply chain bottlenecks and labor shortages. The details of GDP are in the table below. The 2% gain (quarter-over-quarter at an annualized rate) was less than the consensus estimate of 2.6%; and well below estimates that were as high as 7% at the start of the quarter. Source: Charles Schwab, Bureau of Economic Analysis, as of 9/30/2021. *Represents contribution to percent change in real GDP. Numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Real GDP based on annualized Q/Q % change. A theme of my recent reports and videos has been the shift from an age of abundance to an age of scarcity. Shortages of myriad varieties, including labor and semiconductors, are likely to be persistent and carry well into next year; suggesting a significant rebound in the big GDP driver of consumption is not in the cards. In the meantime, weaker-than-expected GDP growth in the third quarter was not matched by weaker-than-expected S&P 500 earnings growth. Another stellar, but slower, quarter Third quarter earnings season is in its latter innings and so far, so good. Using Refinitiv data, the “blended” expected year-over-year growth rate for S&P 500 earnings is nearing 40%. (Blended refers to the combination of actual earnings for companies that have already reported and consensus estimates for companies yet to report.) Excluding the Energy sector, the blended expected growth rate is 31%. As of Friday, about 280 companies have reported earnings, with more than 82% beating estimates; which compares to a long-term average of less than 66% and a prior four quarter average of nearly 85%. As shown in the table below, even if earnings growth accelerates from here as more companies report, there is no chance the growth rate will exceed second quarter’s 96% (bottom row). Growth is expected to continue its deceleration into the first half of next year. From a sector perspective, Energy is clearly the top earnings driver—driven by the “base effects” relative to last year’s pandemic/lockdown era when oil prices briefly fell into negative territory. Aside from Energy, the highly-cyclical Materials and Industrials sectors top the rankings, with the defensive Utilities and Consumer Staples sectors bringing up the rear. Source: Charles Schwab, I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv, as of 10/29/2021. The past year-and-a-half has been characterized by analysts consistently setting the earnings growth expectations bar too low. Since the end of the summer, however, the earnings revisions index has lost steam. The latest uptick is encouraging, but as third quarter earnings season starts to wind down, keeping an eye on this index as the market looks ahead to fourth quarter earnings is essential. Earnings Revisions Off Peak Source: Charles Schwab, Bloomberg, as of 10/22/2021. Revisions index measures the number of equity analyst revisions upgrades (positive) and downgrades (negative). Given the aforementioned supply chain bottlenecks that continue to wreak havoc on economic and inflation data, the profit margin (PM) picture remains bright, as shown below. The recent slight rollover bears watching though. For now, although most sectors have overall positive sentiment readings toward PM results (current data) and PM commentary (forward looking commentary), it’s mostly among cyclical companies. My friend Dennis Debusschere of 22V Research, tracks S&P earnings call commentary; and cyclical company PM commentary sentiment is close to a record high relative to defensive company PM commentary. Profit Margins’ Spike Unlikely to Persist Source: Charles Schwab, Bloomberg, as of 10/29/2021. Supply chain sentiment, as per 22V Research, has dropped significantly this year, while pricing sentiment has skyrocketed to its highest level since 2003. Supply chain issues and pricing pressures are pushing earnings factors and financial sentiment lower. Valuations better, but still stretched When the forward P/E for the S&P 500 hit ~27 late-last year, it elicited a surge in questions during my virtual client events about whether we were looking at a repeat of the 2000 peak? As shown below, the P/E spike did look eerily similar to the 1999-2000 period, what was decidedly different was the action in the E (earnings). What caused the spike in the P/E in this cycle, was the epic implosion in the E last year. The equally-epic rebound in the E this year brought the P/E down to less than 22, as shown in the chart below. The dotted lines represent the expected trajectory of earnings growth and the related change in the P/E, all else equal (admittedly, a silly expectation when it comes to markets, but illustrative nonetheless). E Up, P/E Down Source: Charles Schwab, Bloomberg, as of 10/29/2021. Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data. Although the forward P/E has retreated along with the surge in earnings, relative to history, it remains in the expensive zone. In fact, as shown in our popular valuation “heat map” below, most valuation metrics are in the red zone; with the exception of those which look at equity market valuation in the context of the bond market and/or interest rates. Source: Charles Schwab, Bloomberg, The Leuthold Group, as of 10/29/2021. Due to data limitations, start dates for each metric vary and are as follows: CAPE: 1900; Dividend yield: 1928; Normalized P/E: 1946; Market cap/GDP, Tobin’s Q: 1952; Trailing P/E: 1960; Fed Model: 1965; Equity risk premium, forward P/E, price/book, price/cash flow, rule of 20: 1990. Percentile ranking is shown from lowest in green to highest in red. A higher percentage indicates a higher rank/valuation relative to history. Sentiment indicator? Any time I discuss valuation, I alert investors to the simple fact that it’s a terrible market timing tool—especially for time horizons of a year or less. There is no discernible relationship between any valuation’s level and subsequent one-year equity market performance; although there is a much closer relationship when expanding the time horizon to 10 years. In addition, investors typically think of valuation as fundamental and/or quantifiable. But the reality is that valuation (of any variety) is perhaps more of a sentiment indicator—or perhaps better put, an indicator of sentiment. For now, earnings growth and PMs remain healthy; but with revisions well off their high, and PMs unlikely to rise at as fast a clip as previously, the fourth quarter may represent a turning point. For stock pickers, focus on companies with positive earnings revisions. From a macro perspective, keep a close eye on economic and inflation data between now and year-end. In particular, focus more on month-over-month changes; which eliminate some of the funkiness of the ongoing base effects associated with year-over-year changes." MY COMMENT Forth quarter earnings will be interesting. NO DOUBT......most of the so called experts will......low ball.....earnings in their predictions. Why? Because that is the safe path if you are an "expert"....no one cares if you miss earnings by being too low. BUT, miss by predicting too high and people with their EXPECTATIONS shattered....go crazy. So....I anticipate that the earnings predictions for the......forth quarter and 2022 as well.......will significantly LAG the real thing. That does not mean it is all sunshine and roses. We are past due for a mediocre year in the markets. We are going to hit THREE solid........abnormally high return years.......in the markets at the end of this year. So I believe it is likely that the returns next year in the averages will be more moderate. Not necessarily a bad year....but more moderate.
Today we will find out if the passing of the infrastructure bill matters to the markets. I suspect that no one will care. In the end it will turn out as usual....just more government spending with not much to show for it.
AND......we are open. Another week in the old markets. Week 8 of the final countdown to year end. It will be nice to get this year in the books and the results locked in for the historical record. Two minutes in......we see ALL the averages in the GREEN.....fairly nicely actually. My "feeling" is that it is a bit more of a mixed day compared to what the averages are showing at the moment. So a....normal.....portfolio specific day as usual lately.
Here is one take on the infrastructure passage. Dow jumps 200 points after Congress passes infrastructure spending package https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/07/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped to a new intraday high Monday after Congress approved an infrastructure spending package. The blue-chip average gained 220 points, or 0.6%. The S&P 500 ticked up 0.2% and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.2%. The U.S. House of Representatives late Friday passed a more than $1 trillion infrastructure bill, sending the legislation to President Joe Biden for his signature. The package, first passed by the Senate in August, would provide new funding for transportation, utilities and broadband, among other infrastructure projects. Dow 30 mainstay Caterpillar saw its shares rise about 4% as the manufacturer of construction equipment could benefit from the spending package. Heavy equipment producer Deere also got a lift, with shares up 1%. Vulcan Materials and Nucor each added more than 5%. Tesla founder Elon Musk rattled investors this weekend, asking in a Twitter poll whether he should sell 10% of his stock as a response to political clamoring to tax unrealized gains from equity holdings. As some 58% of respondents said yes, shares in Tesla dropped more than 4%. The three major U.S. stock averages each closed at record highs Friday to cap off a winning week. The rally came after the October jobs report came in better than economists had expected. U.S. payrolls added 531,000 jobs last month, according to the Labor Department. Friday’s report also revised up September and August payroll numbers. “The economy is certainly picking up some momentum,” JPMorgan’s David Lebovitz said Friday on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street.” “We are expecting economic growth to accelerate here into the end of 2021 and the beginning of 2022.” The Federal Reserve earlier last week announced a plan to begin tapering its pandemic-era economic aid by the end of November, putting the central bank on track to end its asset purchase program by the middle of next year. Investors await fresh inflation readings in the week ahead. The producer price index and consumer price index are slated for release on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. Economists expect both reports to remain hot for October." MY COMMENT I am not sure you can attribute a 10 minute bump up at the open to anything specific.....but ok. As a long term investor I really dont care WHY we are up in any one day. BUT.....I will take anything I can get.
This pretty much sums up the day and the potential week. Stock market news live updates: Stocks jump to new records at the open; Tesla weighed by Musk pledge https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-november-8-2021-123006203.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks on Monday extended a record-setting streak of gains on Wall Street, opening at new highs as traders looked ahead to a slew of new inflation data and earnings results in the coming days. At the opening bell, the Dow, S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq all notched fresh highs, carried by last week's momentum when all three major indexes jumped to their best levels ever. Optimism over a batch of strong corporate profit reports, a better-than-anticipated October jobs report and a Federal Reserve decision that matched investors' expectations are providing impetus to risk-sensitive assets. Meanwhile, Bitcoin prices led a broad crypto rally, with the leading digital coin jumping within view of a record high. However, Tesla (TSLA) dropped by more than 6% on the day, after CEO Elon Musk confounded investors by vowing to sell 10% of his holdings based on the outcome of a Twitter poll, which kept a lid on tech stocks. This week, companies including Disney (DIS), PayPal (PYPL) and Coinbase (COIN) are set to deliver quarterly earnings results, with traders hoping that these and other companies' results will extend a streak of solid earnings growth heading into the holiday season. So far, 89% of S&P 500 companies have reported third-quarter results, and 81% of these exceeded Wall Street's estimates for earnings per share, according to FactSet data. The expected year-on-year earnings growth rate has crept higher to 39.1%, which would mark the third-fastest pace for earnings growth in the index since 2010. On the economic data front, inflation reports will be especially closely monitored. Wednesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to show another acceleration in consumer prices on both a monthly and annual basis for last month, as ongoing supply chain challenges and labor shortages across the recovering economy contribute to rising prices. Estimates as of Monday showed that consensus economists expect to see the CPI rise by 5.9% in October compared to last year, accelerating from September's 5.4% annual rate to reach the fastest rise since 1990. "We continue to expect that a normalization of demand and supply constraints over time will take pressure off inflation statistics," Rubeela Farooqi, chief economist for High Frequency Economics, wrote in a note on Monday. "The exact timing is uncertain, given we cannot predict when supply chains will adjust." "However, our best guess is that prices will start moderating by the middle of next year — possibly sooner if goods that are stuck off ports reach their destinations in the early part of the year, which will result in an excess supply of goods after the holiday," she added. Though the Federal Reserve has suggested that elevated inflation related to supply constraints will ultimately subside, market participants are still awaiting signs of easing. Data from Oxford Economics showed last week that supply chain pressures worsened in October after easing somewhat in September, and the number of cargo ships waiting to unload at key ports in California reached an all-time high. And the inflation report will come following last week's average hourly wage data in the Labor Department's October jobs report, which showed that average earnings jumped by a marked 4.9% in October over last year. These rising labor and compensation costs, as well as a slew of other supply-related challenges, have also been cited by a host of companies in their latest earnings results. "The so-called Great Resignation, with baby boom generation retirees and others reassessing their connection to the labor force, is tightening up the labor market faster than the economic models predicted and this means demand pressures and shortages will persist and that inflation will gain a permanent foothold if Federal Reserve policy makers are not careful," Chris Rupkey, chief economist for FWDBonds, wrote in a note on Friday. "They took a baby step this week in starting to taper, but they are still adding money to the economy through their asset purchases through next June, and they cannot start putting the brakes on this economy until they actually lift interest rates," he added." MY COMMENT More of the same old.....same old. the issues that are out there now are going to be the issues for a long time. I suspect for at least the next 6-12 months. ALL.....of the focus in the markets will be on the SHORT TERM. That is now the norm......trading, trading, trading. It is RARE to see anything at all on the topic of long term investing. Although...the vast majority of money in the markets.....considering 401K and IRA money.....is long term money.
who else is having a good day!? I guess news dropped that Facebook will use AMD chips in their Metaverse...Not sure what that means but I'll take the 12% in one day off it! Even my Elephant turd CHWY stock it up!
Today is one of those days.....but.....I am very CALM and ZEN. I am putting together a whole packet of stuff for Social Security because.......SURPRISE.....our wonderful IRS did NOT send them my 2020 tax information. So....SS.....is going to use my 2019 tax info to figure the EXTRA MEDICARE premium we owe for 2022. Since I lowered my income (on paper) for 2020....if they use the 2019 tax return data I will end up having to pay about $6000 in extra Medicare premiums for 2022. So.....I will be driving over to the SS office to drop al this stuff off this afternoon. Than.......the plumbers showed up about 15 minutes ago. My new counter tops and backsplash are done. The job turned out beautiful.....we love them. So...today it is time to hook back up the sink, faucet and a new garbage disposal. The plumber shows up.....a different person from the one that removed everything about a 8 days ago. I go to the door and let him in and ask if he has the new garbage disposal. He says "what, I thought I was here to remove a faucet and disposal". I say...."no that was the job that you guys did 8 days ago....you better call your office". So he and his helper are now off to the supply house to get the garbage disposal and will be back to do the job in about an hour. I am about to look at my account.........I dont know if that is a good idea with how things are going today. At least the averages look OK for the day.
Ok....I looked and of course I have a small loss today...thanks to Nike and Costco. Just how my day is going.
