The Long Term Investor

The PRIMARY reason that I dont care about ANY of the re-opening stuff.....or ANY economic stuff......in terms of the markets......is because it is not going to cause me to do anything....anyway. Am I going to change how i invest? Am I going to go to cash? Am I going to sell or buy anything different from what I currently own? Am I going to respond in any way? NO......NO......NO....and......NO.

I am simply going to hold what I own for the LONG TERM as usual. I dont care what happens in the 1-3 year time span. That is NOT long term. For me LONG TERM is 7 years and beyond. Whatever happens will happen and in three or five or ten years......in hindsight.....we will know the truth of how it all played out.

As a company shareholder......and owner.....this is why I pay the big bucks to management.....to deal with all the various business conditions that arise and to guide the company through to success and profit. This is why I ONLY invest in what I consider the most DOMINANT companies in the world. This is why I dont trade or market time. This is why I........NEVER.......invest in CYCLICAL industries or businesses that are sensitive to economics or government stupidity.....banks, drug companies, auto companies, financial companies, insurance companies, oil companies, etc, etc.

As a recent lesson......remember all the EXTREMELY dire predictions and media coverage over the past year and a half. Remember all the BALONEY about how we would NOT have a....."V".....shaped recovery. Well it has been a rocket to the moon so far for stockholders. So far.......NONE......of the dire predictions have come true.

The greatest threat to stockholders......short term......government, as usual.......and.....the FED.

 

I like this little article and find it very interesting. It is FUNNY and makes me laugh. ZILLOW....the company that specializes in real estate and providing values for nearly every house in the USA......has to quit the flipping business because they could not project housing values. SO.....in other words.....they are FAILURES at what they claim to do as a company......how IRONIC.

When I first saw that they were going to become house flippers.....I thought this is not going to end well. Well....it ended as expected. My view is this business.....adventure......has got to be one of the DUMBEST corporate moves in a long, long time. This is MORNOIC......a real estate company that specializes in valuing EVERY house in the USA.....can not make money flipping houses in the HOTTEST.......ESCALATING..... real estate market in history

Zillow quits home-flipping business, cites inability to forecast prices
Termination of ‘iBuying’ comes after company said it was halting new home purchases for rest of 2021

https://www.foxbusiness.com/real-es...g-business-cites-inability-to-forecast-prices

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Real-estate firm Zillow Group Inc. is exiting from the home-flipping business, saying Tuesday that its algorithmic+ model to buy and sell homes rapidly doesn’t work as planned.

The firm’s termination of its tech-enabled home-flipping business, known as "iBuying," follows Zillow’s announcement about two weeks ago that it was halting all new home purchases for the rest of the year. At the time, Zillow pointed to labor and supply shortages for its inability to renovate and flip houses fast enough.

In a statement Tuesday, Chief Executive Rich Barton said Zillow had failed to predict the pace of home-price appreciation accurately, marking an end to a venture the company once said could generate $20 billion a year. Instead, the company said it now plans to cut 25% of its workforce.

"We’ve determined the unpredictability in forecasting home prices far exceeds what we anticipated and continuing to scale Zillow Offers would result in too much earnings and balance-sheet volatility," Barton said.

Zillow and other tech-powered house flippers, known as iBuyers, purchase homes, renovate them and then try to sell them quickly, making money on transaction fees and home-price appreciation. Zillow used an algorithm to make home price estimates, called the "Zestimate," and determine what it would pay home sellers.

Ultralow mortgage-interest rates and a need for more space to work from home have driven robust home-buying demand in the past year and a half. Prices have climbed sharply in almost every corner of the U.S.

"It feels like this would be a hard time to lose money buying and selling houses," said Benjamin Keys, professor of real estate at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. "This is a time frame where prices have gone up in a lot of places, dramatically."

In recent months, sky-high prices have forced out some buyers, and the market has showed signs of cooling off, as many economists expected. The median existing-home sales price rose 13.3% in September from a year earlier—still unusually robust, though down from 23.6% year-over-year price growth in May, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Even this gradual tapering in price growth flummoxed Zillow’s algorithm, leading the company to pull the plug on the venture.

Zillow’s class C share price was down 10% on Tuesday, falling before the company announced after the market closed that it would end home flipping. Shares continued to slide in after-hours trading.

The move represents a big hit to Zillow’s top line. Home-flipping was the company’s largest source of revenue, but it has never turned a profit.

Zillow, which released earnings Tuesday, said its home-flipping business, Zillow Offers, lost $381 million last quarter, as measured by adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. That resulted in a combined adjusted Ebitda loss of $169 million across all of Zillow.

Zillow has an inventory of about 9,800 homes across the United States that it is currently shopping to investors. Additionally, there are another 8,200 homes in contract it has agreed to buy. The company expects to lose somewhere between 5% and 7% on these homes, the company said.


Starting in the summer, competitors such as OpenDoor and Offerpad began to pull back from home purchases in one of the biggest home-flipping markets, Phoenix, as the red-hot pandemic market began to cool.

But Zillow accelerated, according to an analysis of sales records by real-estate tech researcher Mike DelPrete, scholar-in-residence at the University of Colorado, Boulder. Zillow also paid significantly more than those competitors for each home it purchased, buying homes priced $65,000 above the median on average, according to DelPrete’s analysis.

By October, the company had listed 250 Phoenix homes at a median-price discount of 6.2% below what it had paid for them. DelPrete called Zillow’s price blunder a catastrophic failure.

A wider look at Zillow’s national performance by analysts at KeyBanc Capital Markets found it had listed 66% of homes at prices below what it had paid for them, with an average discount of 4.5%.

"The fact that Zillow can’t make it work shouldn’t be the final death knell for iBuying," DelPrete said. "The other companies are making improvements, and Zillow’s not. They’re still losing lots of money."

Zillow said it expects that the wind-down of its home-flipping outfit will take several quarters."

MY COMMENT

HILARIOUS......these guys claim to be real estate evaluation experts. I dont know why anyone would own this stock. I dont see any business model with this company that has any real way to make money. An "emperors new cloths" business.


UMMMMM.....HELLO......did anyone ever tell them that this is not how you make money:

"Zillow also paid significantly more than those competitors for each home it purchased, buying homes priced $65,000 above the median on average"

"By October, the company had listed 250 Phoenix homes at a median-price discount of 6.2% below what it had paid for them." "....a catastrophic failure."

"A wider look at Zillow’s national performance found it had listed 66% of homes at prices below what it had paid for them, with an average discount of 4.5%."

THIS is the kind of EPIC FAILURE where the CEO and a few others should be FIRED. BUT....I dont see any mention of that happening in this little article.

 

You are so right TomB16....it is very easy to spot issues like this when researching a company.

Even when NOT researching a company.....it is pretty easy to spot IDIOTIC business decisions. When I heard they were going to start flipping houses I knew immediately that it was NOT going to end well. Flipping is hard to do successfully......and it requires LOCAL contractor contacts and local knowledge......it is NOT something that a national, bureaucratic, corporation can pull off......using a bunch of algorithms....created by people (nerds) that have NEVER built, remodeled, or flipped a house..

 

I like this little article since I am an......INFLATION DENIER. I do not deny that prices are rising at the moment on many products.....but......these are supply chain and supply issues caused by the early failure of the re-opening. TIME......about 12-18 months......will solve these issues as will market pressures as supply increases.

It Would Help If the Neo ‘Inflation’ Hawks Understood What Inflation Is

https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnta...understood-what-inflation-is/?sh=2fb891687084

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"“The real shock was that the dollar was depreciating against oil, gold, against foreign currencies and against nearly everything else.” – Robert L. Bartley, The Seven Fat Years, p. 32

The late Robert Bartley wrote the passage that begins this piece in his classic 1992 book, The Seven Fat Years. Bartley was writing about the early 1970s.

To this day, economists, pundits and politicians confuse the so-called “oil shocks” in the 1970s with the Arab oil embargo from 1973. Supposedly the latter resulted in “shortages,” and inflation. No, to blame inflation on rising prices is like fingering wet sidewalks as the cause of rain. At best causation is being reversed.

The main thing is that Bartley, along with a few others uniquely understood that there were no “oil shocks” to speak of in the 1970s. As economic logic dictates, embargoes are toothless given the simple truth that there’s no accounting for the final destination of any good. The oil that Arab countries ceased selling into U.S. markets still reached U.S. markets; the only difference being that Americans bought “Arab oil” from those the Arabs sold it to.

As the value of the dollar declined in the ‘70s the prices of all commodities were rising. Call it inflation. The real kind. Crucial here is that artificial government measures of inflation from the 1970s like CPI still factored in commodities like food and fuel.

This looms large considering what happened in the early 2000s. By then, CPI and other governmental measures of inflation were largely stripped of food and fuel. This is important mainly because what Bartley described as happening in the early 1970s was exactly what happened yet again in the early 2000s. The dollar began a long descent against nearly every foreign currency, along with commodities like gold, oil, wheat, soybeans. Pick your commodity.

Figure that a barrel of oil fetched $10 in 1998, but by the second half of the 21st century’s first decade this same barrel cost over $100. A barrel never dipped below $100 until after 2014. Inflation? Yes. The real kind. Actual currency devaluation. Government measures weren’t as sensitive to it, and the clue to why resided in “government measure.” Market goods like food and fuel no longer informed the measure. Voila! No inflation despite market signals revealing just that.

What’s endlessly fascinating about the inflation from the 2000s is how many conservatives and Republicans (or both) in good standing wholly sat out the dollar’s descent. Even though it very much resembled what had taken place in the 1970s, this truth rarely came up in op-eds or on talk shows. One could reasonably assume that Republicans have their partisan qualities too. A Republican named George W. Bush was in the White House, the Bush Treasury naively favored the currency devaluation that proved so economically harmful in the 1970s (and that was reversed under a Republican by the name of Reagan in the 1980s, and Democrat named Clinton in the 1990s), and so economic types from the GOP camp largely remained quiet as the greenback fell against everything.

All of this rates prominent mention now given the rediscovery of “inflation” by all-too-many self-proclaimed “hawks” on the Right. Oil at $80/ barrel supposedly signals raging price pressures. Ok, but where were all the inflation-obsessed during the first two decades of the 21st century when a barrel routinely fetched well over $100?

Which brings us to the present. Prices of many goods are up. And the long dormant inflation “hawks” are up in arms. Socialism! Money supply! No, lockdowns to varying degrees eviscerated trillions of commercial arrangements reached over many decades around the world. Put another way, the taking by politicians of the freedom to work and produce around the world compromised the very labor division that has long enabled huge supply advances in concert with falling prices for everything. This has resulted in near-term shortages. Yes, central planning always results in shortages and price spikes.

The only problem for the neo-hawks is that rising prices born of near or long-term supply challenges are not inflation. A rise in the price of one good logically implies a fall in the price of other. If Honeycrisp apples soar in price due to a sudden discovery that they cure cancer, logic dictates fewer dollars to buy other market goods. These things balance.

Extra funny about the here and now is that the “hawks” are pointing to a recent CPI increase last reached in 1990. Yes, Iraq’s 1990 invasion of Kuwait had spooked markets fearful that looming war would result in substantially less oil flowing out of the Middle East. The good news is that the resulting fighting proved brief. Yes, the oil spikes that drove up 1990 CPI proved “transitory.” So are today’s spikes transitory.

A Fed that is nearly always wrong is right at the moment. Except that what we’re experiencing is not even short-term “inflation.” It’s just shortages born of needless lockdowns.

Inflation is always and everywhere a devaluation of the currency, which is not what we’re seeing now in any notable way. About actual inflation, it would be easier to take the “hawks” seriously if they’d said or written anything in the 2000s about the dollar’s collapse. Except that they didn’t. Either they’re blindly partisan or they don’t really know what inflation is. Or maybe both."

MY COMMENT

Companies ARE going to take advantage of this issue to raise prices.....just like they always do when they have the chance. Some of the increases are justified and others are just using the current environment to make more money. the economic system is SCREWED UP at the moment due to the closure of the economy. Supply and demand forces are SCREWED UP at the moment.....thus.....we are seeing EXACTLY what you would expect considering the re-opening issues. BUT.....NO.....this is not some sort of systemic or real inflation. It is simply too many consumers chasing too few goods.

 

YEA.....we got the markets open for the day. At the moment ALL the averages are UP by about the same percentage gain....about 0.33%.

LET THE GAMES BEGIN.....

 

HERE is how we begin the new week.

Stock market news live updates: Stocks rise as investors eye upbeat China data, await retail sales report

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-november-15-2021-121525550.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)
"Stocks gained on Monday as investors monitored upbeat economic data out of China and awaited key retail sales and earnings results out from major U.S. companies later this week.

The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq each opened higher. The Dow rose with shares of Boeing (BA) leading the way higher after the aircraft-maker's head of commercial airplanes told Bloomberg he was "hopeful" that China would resume orders of the 737 Max soon following more than two years of grounding.

Stronger-than-expected economic data out of China also helped lift traders' sentiment at the start of the week. The world's second-largest economy saw both retail sales and industrial production unexpectedly accelerate in October over last year, suggesting the economic impact from multiple COVID-19 waves and stay-in-place restrictions was beginning to ease. However, new-home prices in China fell by about 0.25% in October versus September, marking the biggest drop in more than six years as the country's real estate market came under continued pressure.

Investors this week are also set to receive new data from the Commerce Department on U.S. retail sales. The report is likely to show a 1.3% month-on-month jump in sales for October after a more sanguine 0.7% rise in September. And retail earnings results from major names including Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), Home Depot (HD) and Lowe's (LOW) will offer additional details on the state of the consumer.

For U.S. stocks, last week marked a brief pause after a record-setting run-up. The S&P 500 posted a weekly decline for the first time in six weeks, but remained within 0.8% of its all-time intraday high as of Friday's close. The Dow and Nasdaq were also not far off from their own record levels.

A hotter-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) last week tempered some of investors' ebullience for equities, and suggested heightened inflationary pressures were stickier than previously expected. The CPI jumped by a greater-than-expected 6.2% in October compared to the prior year, marking the fastest annual rise since 1990. Meanwhile, the latest print on U.S. job openings came in higher-than-expected to a near-record high of more than 10.4 million, and a separate report showed consumer sentiment deteriorated early this month as Americans nervously eyed rising prices.

The jump in inflation carries implications both for consumers' personal finances and for monetary policy.

"The surge in core inflation in October marks the start of a run of big gains, thanks to surging used auto prices, rebounding airline fares, and faster increases in housing costs," Ian Shepherdson, chief economist for Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a note Monday. "We think core inflation will peak at almost 7% in March, which will pose a serious challenge to the Fed's benign medium-term view. Chair [Jerome] Powell will have to convince markets that the combination of rocketing payrolls and soaring inflation does not threaten the transitory story, to which he appears still to be committed."

Though the Federal Reserve has maintained current inflationary pressures will be temporary, sustained increases of these elevated magnitudes could prompt a quicker-than-previously-expected hike to interest rates, which would in turn impact a variety of asset classes.

"We remain of the view that the Fed will start to hike in September, but a June hike can't be ruled out. If labor participation shows no sign of life by the March FOMC meeting, we expect the Fed to accelerate the taper and then hike in June. This would play badly across all asset markets," Shepherdson added. "Treasury yields still have to rise, but rising real yields due to strong non-inflationary growth are vastly preferable to rising inflation expectations. High-multiple stocks and loss-making tech would be vulnerable even in the benign scenario, but cyclicals would outperform."

9:37 a.m. ET: Oatly shares slide by 20% after missing Q3 sales, cutting forecast
Oatly (OTLY) slumped by 20% Monday morning after posting third-quarter sales that sharply missed estimates and cutting its guidance for the year, as supply-chain and virus-related disruptions weighed on the oat milk-maker's results.

Revenue came in at $171.1 million in the third quarter, falling short of expectations for $185.7 million, based on Bloomberg data. The company now also sees revenue coming in at more than $635 million for the year, or down from its previous forecast for more than $690 million.

“In EMEA, we are starting to build supply to meet consumer demand, but the pace at which we expected to increase revenue in new and existing retailers and to open new markets is slower than we anticipated as we navigate a dynamic COVID operating environment," Oatly said in its earnings report. "We believe this is primarily a timing issue and in the first half of 2022, we expect to have an increased share of shelf space at retail given our strong velocities and current supply levels."

"In the Americas, we are pleased with the weekly production output improvements at our Ogden, Utah facility to-date in the fourth quarter, as we navigate a challenging supply chain environment," the company added. "Finally, in Asia strict public health measures remain in effect due to an increase in cases of the COVID-19 Delta-variant. We are closely monitoring the situation and remain focused on the health and safety of our team." "

My COMMENT

I dont see much of any importance this week. The KEY items for me this week will be the BIG RETAIL earnings that will come out. these numbers will greatly reflect the current condition and strength of the economy and will provide a clue of where we are headed.

 

For those interested in the BIG earnings this week.

On Tuesday Home Depot and Walmart report before the open.

On Wednesday Lowe's and Target report before the open. AND.....Nvidia and Cisco report after the close.

On Thursday Kohl's and Macy's report before the open. AND....after the close we will hear from Applied Materials.

There are other fairly big retailers reporting this week. I will be interested in Home Depot and Nvidia as a holder of both these companies.

 

Speaking of BIG earnings this week.

Retail sales, Walmart and Target earnings: What to know this week

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/reta...w-this-week-154433076.html?fr=yhssrp_catchall

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)
"Investors this week will be focused on data on the consumer, with both retail sales and earnings results from two retail giants set for release.

The total value of retail sales in the U.S. is expected to have climbed by 1.1% month-on-month in October, according to the Commerce Department's latest monthly print on Tuesday. This would accelerate from a 0.7% monthly advance in September, which had been an unexpected increase at the time given that many economists were anticipating that a rise in Delta variant cases would weigh on spending during the month.

"Our data suggest broad-based improvement across major sectors, including restaurants, department stores and general merchandise," Bank of America economist Michelle Meyer wrote in a note on Friday. "Netting out restaurants, gas and building materials, we look for the core control group to increase 0.5% [month-over-month]. Consumer spending remained resilient in October and will likely stay elevated as we head into the holiday season."

If results come is as expected, October would mark a third straight monthly increase in retail sales. However, the rate of growth in consumer spending has slowed considerably in the second half of this year so far, compared to the first half when government stimulus checks and other economic support had helped pad consumers' wallets and stoke spending. The Bureau of Labor Statistics' last report on U.S. GDP showed that personal consumption slowed to a just 1.6% annualized rate in the third quarter, down from a 12.0% clip in the second.

A jump in prices, as inflationary pressure reverberates across the recovering economy, is one factor economists are closely watching as a potential anchor on consumer spending. While many companies have signaled in their latest earnings reports that they have been able to pass on prices to end users so far, consumers are beginning to take note of rising inflation. Depending on the magnitude and extent of the price increases, this could have a further dampening effect on consumption.

The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers highlighted last week that consumers expected inflation to rise by 4.9% over the next year, which was the highest print since 2008. And the headline index for the University of Michigan showed that the overall sentiment index fell to a 10-year low in early November, in large part reflecting concerns over how inflation would impact consumers' finances. This report came just two days after the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October showed that inflation jumped by a greater-than-expected 6.2% compared to the prior year, marking the fastest annual rise since 1990.

"It does take a while before a drop in consumer sentiment actually impacts spending," Yung-Yu Ma, BMO Wealth Management's chief investment strategist, told Yahoo Finance Live last week.

"That's going to be one of the big things going forward, to see whether or not that consumer sentiment can bounce back, whether consumers will be resilient in the face of these price pressures, or whether they'll start to pull back a bit and decide they're going to hold off on spending and wait to see when prices come down or at least stabilize before they spend more in the new year," he said. "So that remains to be seen, and that is a big question mark as we go into 2022."

Big box retailers report earnings
Quarterly earnings results from companies including Walmart and Target will also be monitored this week as a proxy of consumers' propensity to spend, especially heading into the critical holiday shopping season. The results and earnings calls will also likely include more commentary around how shipping delays and supply chain disruptions are impacting America's largest retailers.

A back-to-school season that saw many students return to class in-person likely helped stoke spending at both Walmart and Target. Growth still likely slowed compared to earlier on during the pandemic, however, when the companies had benefited from a consumer shift to spending on goods rather than on services, and to big-box stores that would allow them to get all their shopping needs done in one trip during the pandemic.

Walmart's sales are expected to grow just 1% on a year-over-year basis to reach $135.5 billion, data from Bloomberg showed. This would mark the slowest top-line growth rate since the first quarter of 2020. Total Walmart U.S. same-store sales are expected to grow 7%, however, to accelerate from the prior quarter's 5.4% increase. Walmart U.S. operating margins are also expected to expand to 5.35%, compared to 5.2% in the same quarter last year, but may contract compared to the 6.2% margin posted in the second quarter this year.

Already last quarter, Walmart executives highlighted during their last earnings call in August that "out of stocks in certain general merchandise categories" were "running above normal given strong sales and supply constraints," presaging what many other companies have highlighted in their own earnings results in recent weeks. The firm added at the time that they were also taking steps to try and circumvent supply snarls, including chartering vessels specifically for Walmart goods. All these measures, however, also incur additional costs.

Target, for its part, also mentioned it was trying to maneuver around supply chain disruptions on its latest earnings call as well.

"Our team has been successfully addressing supply chain bottlenecks, which are affecting both domestic freight and international shipping. Steps include expedited ordering and larger upfront quantities in advance of a season, mitigating the risk that replenishments could take longer than usual," said Target Chief Operating Officer John Mulligan in August. "Bottom line, with Q2 ending inventory up more than 26% or nearly $2.5 billion compared to a year ago, we believe we're well-positioned for the fall and ready to deliver strong growth on top of last year's record increase."

Target is expected to see revenue grow 8% to $24.09 billion in its fiscal third quarter, also slowing compared to its 9% growth rate in the second quarter and 21% year-over-year increase in the same period last year. Closely watched same-store sales are expected to rise b 8.3%, or slower than the 8.9% rate in the second quarter. Digital same-store sales, however, are anticipated to accelerate sequentially to a 13.25% clip, on top of the 155% digital sales growth Target posted in the same period last year.

Commentary around labor supply shortages and hiring trends will also be closely watched for both Target and Walmart. In September, Target said it would be hiring 100,000 seasonal employees for the holidays, or fewer than the more than 130,000 workers it hired in each of the last two holiday seasons. It planned to instead provide more hours and pay to its slightly smaller holiday workforce this year.

Walmart said in September it was planning to hire about 150,000 new U.S. store workers ahead of the holidays, with most of these comprising permanent and full-time roles.

Economic calendar

• Monday: Empire Manufacturing, Nov. (21.2 expected, 19.8 in prior print)
  
  
• Tuesday: Retail sales advance, month-over-month, Oct. (1.1% expected, 0.7% in Sept.); Retail sales excluding autos and gas, month-over-month, Oct. (0.9% expected, 0.8% in Sept.); Import price index month-over-month, Oct. (1.0% expected, 0.4% in Sept.); Export price index, month-over-month, Oct. (0.9% expected, 0.1% in Sept.); Industrial Production, month-over-month, Oct. (0.9% expected, -1.3% in Sept.); Capacity Utilization, OCt. (75.9% expected, 75.2% in Sept.); NAHB Housing Market Index, Nov. (80 expected, 80 in Oct.)
  
  
• Wednesday: MBA mortgage Applications, week ended Nov. 12 (5.5% during prior week); Building permits, month-over-month, Oct. (2.8% expected, -7.8% in Sept.); Housing starts, Oct. (1.6% expected, -1.6% in Sept.)
  
  
• Thursday: Initial jobless claims, week ended Nov. 13 (260,000 expected, 267,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, week ended Nov. 6 (2.160. million during prior week); Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, Nov. (24.0 expected, 23.8 in Sept.); Leading Index, Oct. (0.8% expected, 0.2% in Sept.); Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index, Nov. (31 in Oct.)
  
  
• Friday: No notable reports scheduled for release

Earnings calendar

• Monday: Oatly (OTLY), WeWork (WE) before market open; Endeavor Group Holdings (EDR), Lucid Group (LCID) after market close
  
  
• Tuesday: Home Depot (HD), Walmart (WMT) before market open
  
  
• Wednesday: Lowe's (LOW), Target (TGT), TJX Cos. (TJX) before market open; Sonos (SONO), Nvidia (NVDA), Cisco (CSCO), Victoria's Secret (VSCO) after market close
  
  
• Thursday: Kohl's (KSS), Macy's (M) before market open; Applied Materials (AMAT), Intuit (INTU), Workday (WDAY), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Bath & Body Works (BBWI), Williams-Sonoma (WSM) after market close
  
  
• Friday: No notable reports scheduled for release"

MY COMMENT

I will just wait for the data to come out.....no need to try to anticipate how these companies swill do. this data will reflect the REAL state of the consumer economy and consumer confidence.

I suspect that many of these earnings this week will trigger the stocks to go DOWN....short term......a few days. I have no reason to back this up....but.....I suspect that Nvidia will drop after earnings. The stock has gone up by so much lately.....if there is any small blip in the earnings or forward looking info....it will probably drop.....short term.

 

My BROAD view.....market direction continues to be STRONGLY POSITIVE for the rest of the year. We have SEVEN weeks left in the market this year.

 

This little article has a lesson that many investors either dont think about or dont take into consideration when buying a stock.

The biggest risk companies face that everyone forgets

https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/15/investing/companies-competition/index.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Many companies and investors need to learn a crucial lesson: Becoming a market leader is easy, but staying one for a prolonged period of time? Not so much.

Success brings about imitators. And competition can quickly eat into sales, market share and profits. Just look at the lousy earnings from Peloton (PTON) and Beyond Meat (BYND)for example. Both stocks plunged following their latest results.
Some of Peloton's problems are because more people seem to be willing to leave the house and hit the gym instead. Strong results from Planet Fitness (PLNT), which recently reported earnings that topped forecasts, show that Peloton has plenty of competition outside the home.

But there are also cheaper bikes on the market from the likes of Bowflex, Echelon and NordicTrack. Competition has forced Peloton to cut prices, and investors aren't happy: Peloton's shares have plunged nearly 70% this year.

Too much competition is rarely a good thing

Beyond Meat also is running into trouble because a category it helped create has gone mainstream. Sure, there are concerns that plant-based proteins may be a fad and that demand has peaked. But a bigger issue is the ubiquity of "fake meat" at restaurants and grocery stores. It's no longer hard to find a good plant-based burger.

And now, rival Impossible has distribution agreements with many big supermarket chains. So consumers no longer have just Beyond products as an option when looking to buy meatless burgers or nuggets.

Traditional food companies like Kellogg (K), Tyson (TSN) and Hormel (HRL) have launched their own plant-based offerings too. It's no wonder that Beyond Meat's stock has lost nearly a third of its value this year.

Meanwhile, mattress maker Casper (CSPR) has also found that it needed to do more than just advertise aggressively to capture share in a crowded market.

The company was one of the pioneers of the mattress in a box business, and in 2019 it seemingly bought up ad space on every subway car in New York City. But competition from other upstarts like Purple (PRPL) and Leesa and established bedding companies Tempur Sealy (TPX) and Sleep Number (SNBR) made life difficult for Casper -— so much so that Casper announced Monday it will be purchased by a private equity firm just 21 months after going public.

Even though Casper shares nearly doubled Monday, the stock is still trading nearly 50% below its initial public offering price.
Tough competition isn't just an issue for early pioneers of an industry.

For example, Disney (DIS) was by no means first to streaming media. But it quickly attracted subscribers and buzz away from Netflix (NFLX) when it launched with a stacked library of classic content and new shows like "The Mandalorian," "WandaVision" and "Loki."

Netflix, as well as streaming rivals from Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) and WarnerMedia's HBO Max, have fought back though, often with edgier and more adult-oriented content like "Squid Game," "Ted Lasso" and "The Flight Attendant." (AT&T's (T) WarnerMedia also owns CNN.)

That has hurt Disney. The stock plunged earlier this month after reporting slower-than-expected subscriber growth for Disney+.
All this shows just how hard it is to remain a market leader for an indefinite period of time without attracting competition that's going to make life more difficult.

In another example, just look at how Elon Musk's Tesla (TSLA) has disrupted an entire industry. Entrenched auto giants GM (GM) and Ford (F) are now worth fractions of Tesla's market value.

Companies like Google owner Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon, Facebook parent Meta Platforms (FB) and Apple are a few of the rare cases of industry leaders who have largely held onto and strengthened their market leads in their respective industries. But they are the exceptions, not the rule."

MY COMMENT

YES....to me this is one of the cardinal rules of my investing and my PORTFOLIO MODEL. I look for the BIG CAP companies that DOMINATE and will dominate for decades. Look at the ten stocks in my Portfolio Model. Every one of the ten is dominant in their field and have been for many years. They ALL have staying power........they stay on the TOP. This is one of the KEYS to long term investing success.

It is easy to identify some hot new company as a leader. BUT.....most of them will FADE quickly once they establish the product and market as mainstream.......and......the big boys and all the other imitators sweep in and take away the market. How often do you see some AMAZING company take over a market with some new product or idea......only to see them FADE in a few years. PLUS......unfortunately......most of the time the EARLY.......new or young......company that is a leader.....is not profitable and never becomes particularly profitable. They do all the hard lifting establishing and creating the product category and the market......but.....the big boys take it all away.

In fact......thinking about this as I type......I would say this is probably the MOST IMPORTANT criteria for long term investing success......finding companies that will have the ability to dominate for decades. Using this criteria means........you often need to wait a while to buy a company. Buy too soon and they look like a HOT HOLDING........but......over a few years it all fades away. I prefer to wait and buy in when the company is still young but the long term dominance is more clear.

 

The SP500 was dead flat today.........0.00% for the day at this moment. Not me.......I got beat by the SP500 today by 0.08%. this means that I was in the RED today by less than $900.

Looks like too many of my holdings are anticipating the upcoming earnings by Walmart, Nvidia, Applied Materials, Home Depot, Target, and the rest of the Retail and tech segments that report this week. I am anticipating that most of the companies that report this week will see negative reaction after they report......for a few days.

 

Here is what caused the markets to go into a holding pattern today.

Stock market news live updates: Stocks mixed as investors eye upbeat China data, await retail sales report

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-november-15-2021-121525550.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Stocks traded mixed on Monday as investors monitored upbeat economic data out of China and awaited key retail sales and earnings results out from major U.S. companies later this week.

The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq struggled for direction after opening decidedly higher. Boeing (BA) shares rose after the aircraft-maker's head of commercial airplanes told Bloomberg he was "hopeful" that China would resume orders of the 737 Max soon following more than two years of grounding. The company also said it booked a number of orders following the 2021 Dubai Airshow, including for two 777 Freighters with Emirates.
.............

3:02 p.m. ET: U.S. sees oil output in Permian Basin reaching record next month

U.S. crude oil output from the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico is set to jump to a record 4.95 million barrels per day in December, a new government forecast showed on Monday. This would bring production in the key U.S. shale patch well above its pre-pandemic average from March 2020.

Crude oil prices have so far been on a tear for the year-to-date, with a rapid surge in energy demand taking place as vaccinations occurred and mobility picked up. The government report Monday reaffirms that more supply may be taking place domestically in the near-term, helping to put a ceiling on prices after a 66% run-up in WTI crude so far this year.

"Supply has to come back to the marketplace here," Scott Bauer, CEO of Prosper Trading Academy, told Yahoo Finance Live earlier on Monday. "The good sign is for right now, is, oil rigs, the amount of rigs that get counted out there, that is rising. It actually rose by 6 last week. It's the highest level that we've seen in about a year-and-a-half, so that means that maybe there will be some more drilling out there."

9:52 a.m. ET: Empire Manufacturing index rebounds in November to top expectations

The regional Empire Manufacturing index for New York state jumped far more than expected in November after sliding in October, with a pick-up in employment at goods-producing firms helping buoy results.

The broadest business activity index for the region rose to 30.9 in November from 19.8 in October, exceeding estimates for 22.0, according to Bloomberg data.

Beneath the headline index, employment grew at its fastest pace on record and the average workweek rose, according to the survey. However, in a sign of persistent supply-related disruptions and inflationary pressures, unfilled orders increased, and an index tracking prices paid held near a record high."

MY COMMENT

The ONLY thing new in the above article from when it was first posted this morning to the updated version is highlighted above. In other words.......nothing.....happened today. The markets simply had ZERO direction or will. It was just a dead day from just after the open. The SP500 ended the day with a gain/loss of 0.00%. The DOW and the NASDAQ both were at (-0.04%) for the day. In other words NOTHING happened today.......simply a write off of the entire day.

I think people are waiting for the earnings reports from the RETAIL GIANTS and a few of the TECH STARS later this week. Or......perhaps.....we are seeing an EARLY impact of Thanksgiving.........which has now evolved into a whole week off for many........on the markets. We will also soon be seeing how BLACK FRIDAY/ THANKSGIVING WEEK is going to kick off the critical Christmas retail season. So we have some........irrelevant.......short term events that might make the next couple of weeks SNOOZERS.

 

As to my comment above about the markets taking a couple of weeks off till after Thanksgiving.........this might not be a bad thing. After all.......we are UP year to date on the SP500 by basically 25%. I would prefer a year end rally to add on about 4-8% to the years gains.....but.......if the markets just run out of steam and sit whee they are till year end.......I will GLADLY take a 25% gain any year the markets wish to give it to me. that would represent more than DOUBLE the average long term gain in the SP500......and.....would represent an investor doubling their money in 2.88 years.

 

I agree with most of the concept you describe duckleberry.fin.

For example I use Apple products.......I shop at Home Depot all the time......I use Google online.........I have some Microsoft products on my computer......I buy Nike stuff once in a while but not shoes......I am a Costco member......I shop online at Amazon.......I use Honeywell products.......etc, etc, etc. I often get first hand knowledge about some business by using their products or services.

BUT....I do not have a hard and fast rule about using the products of the companies that I own. For example I dont drive or own a Tesla. I probably have something that has a Nvidia chip in it....but I dont know. I have no qualms about owning a stock that I dont use their product. Probably the best example is the fact that I owned Phillip Morris for many decades as did my mom....but no one in the family smokes. So while it is nice to own a company that I use their products and services and get to experience their business first hand........I dont require it to own a stock.

 

As a Home Depot stock owner....I like this little story........and the STRONG earnings.

America is in a never-ending housing boom. Home Depot is reaping the rewards

https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/16/investing/home-depot-earnings/index.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Is the red hot housing market finally set to cool off? If so, someone forgot to tell Home Depot shoppers.

Home Depot reported earnings for the third quarter Tuesday that easily topped forecasts. Overall sales rose nearly 10% from a year ago to $36.8 billion, also surpassing Wall Street's estimates.

Chairman and CEO Craig Menear said in the company's earnings statement that results were solid thanks to "elevated home improvement demand that has persisted."

Sales growth at stores open at least a year picked up in the third quarter. Home Depot said that so-called same store sales rose 6.1% globally and 5.5% in the United States. That's up from a worldwide increase of 4.5% in the second quarter and 3.4% domestic increase.

Shares of Home Depot (HD) gained more than 1% in early trading on the news. The stock has soared about 40% so far this year and is trading near a record high.

Top rival Lowe's (LOW), which will report earnings on Wednesday, also rallied following Home Depot's results. Lowe's shares are up more than 45% this year.

Consumer spending has continued to power the economy, despite lingering concerns about Covid-19, inflation and global supply chain bottlenecks that have caused major shipping delays.

Walmart (WMT) reported healthy results as well Tuesday, and its stock rallied on the news.

And retailers that cater to consumers looking to make improvements to their home have done exceedingly well. Williams-Sonoma (WSM) reported strong results in late August and its shares have more than doubled this year."

MY COMMENT

I will post more detail on these earnings since I own this company. STRONG results for a superior company. THE leader in their business are in the USA.

 

HERE is one of the two BIG earnings of this week......WALMART......the other one is NVIDIA.

Walmart tops earnings estimates, wins back grocery shoppers as inflation heats up

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/16/walmart-wmt-earnings-q3-2022.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Key Points

• Walmart’s fiscal third-quarter earnings topped analysts’ expectations as price-sensitive grocery shoppers flocked to its stores amid rising costs for household staples.
• Walmart raised its forecast for the year.
• The retailer said its size is helping it manage through supply chain snarls and inflation.

Walmart’s fiscal third-quarter earnings on Tuesday topped analysts’ expectations as price-sensitive grocery shoppers flocked to its stores amid rising costs for household staples.

The retailer’s size is helping it manage through snarled supply chains, as it negotiates with manufacturers, bulks up its inventory and charters its own ships to move goods across the globe. Walmart raised its forecast for the year, saying adjusted earnings per share will be around $6.40 versus its prior expectations of between $6.20 and $6.35.

Shares are down about 1% early Tuesday.

Walmart CEO Doug McMillon said the retailer is optimistic about the holidays and will have shelves stocked. Inventory for Walmart in the U.S. is up 11.5% ahead of the busy shopping season, he said. The retailer ordered its seasonal merchandise early and has prioritized space for it on ships.

“There’s a level of excitement in the air,” he said on the company’s earnings call. “You can feel it. I’ve been walking away from these stores with a recurring thought, ‘We’re ready, we have the people, the products, and the prices to deliver a great holiday season.’”

Here’s what the company reported for the fiscal third quarter ended Oct. 31, according to Refinitiv consensus estimates:

• Earnings per share: $1.45 adjusted vs. $1.40 expected
• Revenue: $140.53 billion vs. $135.60 billion expected

Walmart’s net income fell to $3.11 billion, or $1.11 per share, from $5.14 billion, or $1.80 per share, a year earlier. Excluding items, the company earned $1.45 per share. Analysts were expecting Walmart would earn $1.40 per share, according to Refinitiv.

Total revenue grew by about 4% to $140.53 billion from $134.7 billion a year earlier, exceeding Wall Street’s expectations of $135.60 billion.

Walmart’s same-store sales in the U.S. grew by 9.2%, excluding fuel, higher than the 6.9% expected by a StreetAccount survey.

Walmart’s e-commerce sales in the U.S. grew 8% versus the year-ago quarter — or 87% on a two-year basis.

Inflation is hitting consumers as they go about daily routines, from filling up the gas tank to stocking the refrigerator. Annual inflation rose at its fastest pace in more than three decades in September, according to the Commerce Department.

Walmart, known for its emphasis on “Everyday Low Price,” is one of the retailers that stands to better weather a period of rising prices. As consumers feel sticker shock, they may buy more of their groceries, clothes and other goods at the retailer’s stores and website instead of turning to competitors.

“We’ve always been an inflation fighter for customers,” Walmart Chief Financial Officer Brett Biggs said in an interview with CNBC. “Our scale and the product breadth that we have allows us to do things in a way that is beneficial to customers and beneficial to shareholders.”

Biggs said food inflation was in the low to mid single-digits in the three-month period. He said the company is feeling pressure from the rising cost of fuel, shipping and products, but it has been able to reduce the number of promotions without hurting its sales. Also, it has gotten a boost from new revenue from its growing advertising business.

Biggs said the company has not seen signs so far of trading down — such as buying smaller packs or cheaper brands — but said the retailer may be picking up customers who are looking to save money and time.

Walmart CEO Doug McMillon said in a press release that the company is gaining market share in grocery as U.S. consumers return to stores.

At Walmart’s membership-based warehouse club, Sam’s Club, same-store sales grew 13.9%, excluding fuel, compared with the 8.7% growth expected by StreetAccount.

Biggs said the retailer is seeing shoppers buy holiday items early. He said it’s already sold enough candy canes to stretch from its Bentonville, Arkansas headquarters to the North Pole.

Yet he said there has been “no material pull forward” of holiday shopping in the third quarter. He said the fourth quarter is off to a good start.

“Overall, the consumer appears to us to be in really good shape,” he said. “Wages are up. Jobs are available and spending appears to be strong.”

As of Monday’s close, Walmart shares are up about 2% this year. Shares closed down less than 1% Monday at $146.91, bringing Walmart’s market value to $409.66 billion. Its shares have lagged behind the S&P 500, which is up about 30% this year."

MY COMMENT

Very STRONG earnings from a mainstay of USA shopping. The MASSIVE EARNINGS BEAT by the SP500 is alive and well. In spite of ALL the negative supply chain coverage you see.....this company is prepared and thriving.

 

HERE is a bit more of a comprehensive article on the Home Depot earnings today.

Home Depot earnings top estimates fueled by 9.8% jump in sales as consumers fix up homes

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/16/home-depot-hd-q3-2021-earnings.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)


"Key Points

• Home Depot topped Wall Street’s estimates for its third-quarter earnings and revenue.
• Same-store sales climbed 6.1% in the quarter, beating StreetAccount estimates of 2.2%.
• Consumers were spending more when they visited, raising the average ticket by 12.9% to $82.38.

Home Depot on Tuesday reported quarterly earnings and revenue that beat analysts’ forecasts as customers spent more on home improvement projects.

The company’s shares fell less than 1% in premarket trading.

Here’s what the home improvement retailer reported compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by Refinitiv:

• Earnings per share: $3.92 vs. $3.40 expected
• Revenue: $36.82 billion vs. $35.01 billion expected

Net income for the fiscal third quarter ended Oct. 31 rose to $4.13 billion, or $3.92 per share, from $3.43 billion, or $3.18 per share, a year earlier. Analysts surveyed by Refinitiv were expecting earnings per share of $3.40.

Net salesrose 9.8% to $36.82 billion, topping expectations of $35.01 billion. Same-store sales climbed 6.1% in the quarter, beating StreetAccount estimates of 2.2%. The retailer faced tough comparisons with a year ago, when its same-store sales were soaring, thanks to consumers taking on more do-it-yourself projects.

A strong housing market has helped Home Depot and rival Lowe’s. Consumers have been investing more as home prices climb, increasing nearly 20% compared with a year ago. Demand for materials has been rising from home professionals, helping to offset lower demand from do-it-yourself projects. Home Depot holds a larger share of the professional market, although Lowe’s is trying to win more of that business.

This quarter, Home Depot’s customer transactions fell by 5.5% to 428.2 million. But consumers were spending more when they did visit, raising the average ticket by 12.9% to $82.38. Sales per square foot increased by 6.2% in quarter."

MY COMMENT

These are EXTREMELY STRONG earnings for Home Depot. This company OWNS the hardware market in the USA....they have also managed to capture the contractor market from the local lumber yards that used to have all this sort of business.