Yesterday, another investing web site sent a note to all of their members, looking for people to provide market commentary. I'm sure others here received it, as well. Imagine, if you will, if I were to get the job. "Blomberg just published an article indicating <bloomberg noise>. This is a clear indication Bloomberg is looking at a hole in the ground and assumes it is their own rectum." "Considering today's market factors, I strongly recommend doing nothing for the 700th day in a row." "Today will be my last day as a contributor because repackaging bullshit as 'news' is not all that fulfilling."
The last IPO I participated in was a few months ago. I happened to be sitting at the computer when the email for a new convertible bond issue came in. Knowing I had extremely limited time, I placed an expression of interest within 15 minutes of receiving the notification email. The issue was closed within an hour of being released. This is how bond IPOs have gone for the last few years. Earlier this week, I sold those bonds at a nice profit. Yesterday featured three more convertible bond issues. The rates vary between 5.0 and 6.25%. One was for a company I know and somewhat like, but not well enough to carry their bonds. Today, I was surprised to see all three issues are still open. The bonds I purchased a few months ago were good quality junk. That's where I like to live. The bonds that went on sale yesterday were medium quality junk, by my assessment. It would seem that my view on corporate bonds is aligned with other investors. This revelation has me reconsidering my position. Perhaps there is a way to arbitrage this situation.
Is this a web site or a fraternity? I used to check a few sites, from time to time, but basically stopped out of laziness. I've discovered that, reading some sites makes me less informed than if I don't read them.
I dont have time to follow a bunch of investing social media.....so I limit myself to this site and my daily reading. In a way it is a fraternity.....a group of people with a common interest that enjoy interacting with each other and the comradery. Nothing wrong with that. I can crunch data all day long by myself....or do stock research.....but....this place gives me a chance to express my thoughts and views. So....I use it as an investing BLOG......not hard core investing advice. No one should be taking specific investing advice from the internet anyway. For me Stockaholics.....is one of the few places that I can put up thoughts or opinions or discussion about investing and business......since I avoid all that sort of discussion in my daily life.
I follow this site because I like to learn how Americans see the investing world ....and they surprise me all the time. Nothing wrong with that ....
Well said, brother W. There is only one other investing site I've been to in the last year and I think I've made 3 posts in the last 5 years. It has some good Canadian tax information so I have referred to it occasionally. I don't hang out here exclusively out of loyalty. I hang out here out of laziness; everything I need is here and I don't have much time to even post here.
I understand Raspberry Pi Trading plans to IPO for $500m in the spring of 2022. This is interesting in several ways. Not the least of which, is the realization we live in an era where a very small team that markets rPi variants can be valued at a half billion. Raspberry Pi Trading is distinct from the Raspberry Pi Foundation.
Boeing now has potential structural problems with the carbon fiber wings and fuselage of the 787. Production has been "reduced". In a surprise to morons, Boeing has been resisting the FAA as strongly as possible on these potentially fatal issues. The specific problem started as PTFE contamination of the carbon fiber composite wings made by Mitsubishi. This has expanded to PTFE contamination of all components from other suppliers and Boeing themselves. This latest problem has reduced Boeing's ability to push back on a door issue that involves the opening being too large and the FAA pushing Boeing to prove these openings still meet the design requirements. It appears to me that Boeing is plagued with management and culture issues. Getting rid of this management team is an excellent idea but it is extremely likely the incoming group of folks will be just as incompetent. Very few companies have been able to turn around this level of corruption but it has happened so there is always hope.
Now that omicron is here in North America, I expect it to have significant market impact. [Edit: significant meaning noticable benefit to some sectors and detriment to others, not a major crash. A major crash would not surprise anyone but I doubt it will be caused by omicron.]
Oil may be a good bet, right now. The omicron scare is going to cause oil to plummet. We don't know much about omicron, except that it is the most highly transmissible variant, yet. If omicron turns out to be manageable, oil will bounce back strong. The trick will be to wait until the upside is stronger than the downside. Oddly, my go to oil stock gained 10% today. Lol.
We've been out of town for a few days. Yesterday, just before boarding an aircraft, I received an email indicating a long term buy order had filled. It was the first level market correction trigger. This particular stock was way down, for no reason that I understand. This morning, everything in my portfolio was soaring, particularly the new purchase. I was surfing a wave of money and feeling the glory. By end of trading, everything is red except two stocks. One of the gains is the new purchase but it isn't up nearly as much as it was in the late morning. It's now just a small up tick in a portfolio of down ticks. Over all, I'm down 0.3%. Not bad, considering. The reason I post this is to contrast the emotional roller coaster of a volatile market with the calculated, long term, value buy orders that long term investors might use. Nothing that happened has changed my approach. I still have a lot of cash. I'm still holding way more than three years of retirement funding to mitigate sequence of return risk that is most damaging at the outset of retirement.
As the end of year approaches, I look back and think about the trajectory that has me at 34% gain YoY. Was it a mistake to sell Tesla at $808 in January? I sold just before the drop but it recovered and steamed well past my sell point. It peaked at $1243.49. That's 50% higher than my sell price. Before I sold Tesla, I was sitting on a lot of cash. All of the Tesla cash and a big chunk of the rest was put into two companies. One was an alternative finance company we purchased at $11.03 that is currently at $17.41. What's more, it is currently distributing at 7.68% (forward). The other is a REIT that IPOed (very first common share issue) at $12.50, is currently trading at 15.37, and distributes at 8.2% (based on the current price... it started distributing 60 days after IPO with a yield of 10.5%). So, our net worth is lower than it would have been at Tesla's peak, had we held the stock at that point, but we are in a different world of monthly cash flow. If we held the stock until today, past the peak, our net worth would be lower than it currently is. I don't expect a lot of rapid growth coming out of either of these two companies in the next 5 years, although I expect them to do well. The odds of Tesla experiencing rapid growth over the next five years is high. The odds of Tesla experiencing a big market cap hit is substantially higher than the odds of either of the other two companies. Elon could step down from Tesla's CEO, there could be a plant fire, or some act of nature could take out one of the factories. Any company is subject to risk but I think Tesla is a subject to more. At this point in time, it is clear selling Tesla was the right thing to do. If we were younger, selling Tesla may not have been the right thing to do. Buying stock is buying a company. Some companies fit better into a specific person's life than other companies might. None of this is to say I do not like Tesla; I have extreme regard for Tesla, what they have done, and what the future holds for them.
The REIT I mentioned above is up over 4% today. Earnings are expected after close of trading, today. That's a big swing for such a stable company. I wouldn't expect such a big change before news, unless someone has inside knowledge and is getting in before earnings go public. I don't see a conspiracy behind every bush but there are definitely plenty of things happening that should not be happening.
The WBI is now at an ice cool 201.8. Looking for values but not finding any, for the moment. I still think the real market dip is more likely to happen in early 2022. According to the Lynch "20 - inflation" formula to find appropriate market PE, the market is still a bit over priced (Lynch shows the correct PE as 13.2% where the reality is roughly 16%). So, a bit puffed up but not crazy.
Trading versus investing, again. [Edit: I put this here because I can't find the thread it was intended to occupy and I am heading out for a Christmas event. I would hate to think I left someone unoffended, this holiday season. ] Exchanges have statistics on the profitability of short term trades. A little time with Google will enlighten and upset you. The Market The odds of the market being up tomorrow are just slightly over 50%. Better than even odds, but just barely. The parasitic load of front running and commission are extremely low due to the number of transactions being near zero and what little overhead there is goes to zero over time. The thing is, those odds compound over time. The odds of the market being up 10 years from now are very near to 100%. Trading The odds of your selected company being up later today or tomorrow are about 50%. The odds of the trade making money are less than 50%, because of front runners and commissions. If you don't think your brokerage is making money off you, how do you think they stay in business? Where does the money for their office in the glass skyscraper come from? Still, nearly half of ultra-short term trades do make money. The thing is, the odds of any given trade yielding a profit are less than even and they compound over time. That means, the more you trade the lower the chance of making money. The odds of making money by aggressively trading for the next 10 years are very near to 0%. The point The thing is, you could be selected by God to be a miraculous trader. I know a lot of people who tell me they are God's gift to trading. At least, for a while. At some point, they get bored and stop doing it. I have read countless stories of people who could make $4000 per day using day trading techniques. All of them have stopped. They all cite the same reason: "It was a lot of work". None of them are particularly wealthy. I would blow a goat for $4000 per day. These stories don't seem plausible to me. If you go to a retirement community, check out how many of them have retired based on stock trading. You are extremely unlikely to find any. Next, look for couples who simply invested their nest egg in an S&P 500 mutual fund or ETF. You will find quite a few. The majority of people in a retirement community will have some sort of pension fund that undoubtedly grossly under performed the market but still trickled some money to them in retirement. Vegas is full of people who have "the touch", trying to get rick quickly and the vast majority of them will tell you they are succeeding but very few people leave Vegas with much money. Do you know anyone who quit their job because of Vegas winnings? Do you know anyone who quit their job because of trading? Do you know anyone who quit their job because of long term investing.... I mean, other than me... ?
My retirement account is not used for trading EVER I have a small "PLAYTRADER" account I use for my recent venture into daytrading. Bought 4 shares TSLA for 916.00 on Tuesday. Should I sell premarket Monday and immediately buy AMC with my TSLA money?
I am already retired and i do have a decent government pension (indexed) for the rest of my lifetime. I can not consider myself als a long or short because some of my stocks are already years in my port and other stays only for some weeks or days. As of today i have 44 positions, 7 of them are ETFs, 17 are CEFs and the rest are mostly European Trusts and American big caps. The number of positions changes always but during the last 10 years they never were below 40 different stocks. Besides these 44 i still have some losers in my portfolio because i rarely sels if the price collapse, i consider them as a constant warning towards myself to be more carefull. I do not know if i will act the same way during the following years because the world is always changing and i will adept accordingly.
