OMIcron fears.......yeah right......there has been NOTHING at all in the media to justify all the hand wringing and fear mongering about this variation. Stock market news live updates: Stocks roar back as Omicron jitters recede: Dow gains 647 points, or 1.9% https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-december-6-2021-124642597.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks rose on Monday, with investors further weighing the potential impacts of the Omicron variant after last week's volatile trading. Bitcoin prices edged marginally lower after a weekend sell-off. All three major indexes were higher in intraday trading, led by the Dow with a jump of more than 600 points, or 1.8%, shortly after noon in New York. Small-cap stocks also outperformed, and the Russell 2000 added more than 1%. Tesla (TSLA) shares turned positive in afternoon trading after dropping into bear market territory earlier, following a Reuters report that the Securities and Exchange Commission had opened an investigation into the company's SolarCity solar panel system. Some encouraging developments about the latest coronavirus variant helped boost risk assets. Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), said during CNN's "State of the Union" on Sunday that reports from South Africa have so far suggested the Omicron variant may not cause infections more severe than those caused by earlier variants. "Thus far, though it's too early to really make any definitive statements about it, thus far it does not look like there's a great degree of severity to it, but we've really got to be careful before we make any determinations that it is less severe or really doesn't really cause any severe illness comparable to Delta," Fauci said. "But thus far the signals have been encouraging regarding the severity." Meanwhile, however, Moderna (MRNA) President Stephen Hoge told ABC on Sunday that there was a "real risk that we're going to see a decrease in the effectiveness of the vaccines" currently available as the Omicron variant spreads. The vaccine-maker had also said last week it could have a COVID-19 booster shot designed to address the Omicron variant available as soon as March. Bitcoin prices (BTC-USD) steadied and fell only marginally Monday morning after plunging over the weekend. The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization sank by as much as 21% on Saturday, according to Bloomberg data, to fall to just above $42,000. Though no single obvious catalyst was behind the drop, some pundits attributed a combination of jitters about the Omicron variant, and anticipation for a faster asset-purchase taper by the Federal Reserve, to the volatility in the cryptocurrency. Prices hovered above $48,000 intraday on Monday. The Fed's next monetary policy moves, in the face of the dual concerns of rising inflation and now the Omicron variant, have become a central focus for investors. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week that it could be appropriate to "wrap up [its] purchases a few months early," which has in turn led to speculation that at least one interest rate hike could come soon following the end of that program. Investors had initially been concerned about the specter of tighter monetary policy at a time when growth may already come under pressure due to the latest coronavirus threat. But with inflation rising at the fastest rate in at least three decades according to several major measures, the focus of the Fed right now has shifted to reigning in rising prices, according to a number of economists. "For the Fed, the decision to taper more quickly is complicated — motivated more by inflation than by economic momentum and the labor market. A new wave of infections could certainly slow the recovery, but it could also impact prices," Rubeela Farooqi, chief economist for High Frequency Economics, wrote in a note. "If the variant results in renewed and widespread restrictions — as it already has in some countries, — then supply chain disruptions are likely to intensify, putting even more upward pressure on price metrics." " MY COMMENT TODAY was a good.....old fashioned.....market day with no BALONEY to get in the way to stocks. This market today shows the STRENGTH and POWER of the markets if there was not the constant daily fear mongering. Unfortunately the financial media is FIRMLY in the camp of.....negative, negative, negative. Investors that IGNORE all the CHAFF and BALONEY and educate themselves on the various issues including the virus....will do just fine. By......"do just fine".....I mean they will simply sit and remain invested through all the DAILY GARBAGE......and will see the longer term compounded returns that create real financial wealth and success. That is EXACTLY what I have done for my entire life and intend to do for the rest of my investing life. SO....... I continue to be fully invested for the long term as usual.
The anagram for this new Covid strain perfectly describes my feelings towards this entire pandemic. I’m pro-vaccine as a rule, so have no strong views on whether or not people should get these quasi-effective shots. If you are elderly or have an otherwise compromised autoimmune system, then I suspect they correspond to flu jabs in terms of importance. Dishing out vitamin C and D during winter months as a general practice might help too. However, I’ve followed the data and research coming out since this whole thing started, specifically the risk of severity/death for various cohorts, and was reassured that the media were fear mongering over nothing (for a change). Yes, there is a fatality risk for some people, as with most illnesses. But the reaction to this has been overkill. On the plus side, it’s been a useful way to identify the Karen’s in my social network. The numerous panicked rants from individuals that I previously considered to be fairly rational has been enlightening. I now know who to call/avoid during a zombie apocalypse! As for the impact on markets... I approve! I always love a good global doom session! This one did not disappoint! In terms of future threats to the markets, I’ll be watching to see how property responds to higher interest rates. If prices remain steady then I can’t see any huge rush in/out of stocks taking place. Besides, BlackRock et al seem happy to snap up anything that consumer buyers don’t want.
I wish NVIDIA would simply call off the ARM merger. It is DEAD anyway. It is PUNISHING the share price by having it continue as a slow death march........and......drip, drip, drip. Nvidia stock slips to close in correction territory, joining AMD https://www.marketwatch.com/story/n...rritory-joining-amd-11638825378?siteid=yhoof2 (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Nvidia Corp. shares just closed into a correction Monday following a big decline last week, joining Advanced Micro Devices Inc. Nvidia NVDA, -2.14% shares fell 2.1% to close Monday at $300.37, or 10% below their all-time closing high of $333.76 set on Nov. 29. Shares had fallen as low as $280.38 intraday, but a rally back was not enough to save them from the 10% decline mark that defines a correction. The stock, however, is still up 122% over the past 12 months, and a $750.93 billion market cap still ranks it as the most valuable U.S. chip maker. On Friday, Nvidia shares threatened to move into a correction but were saved by a late-session rally that left them down 8% from recent highs. Late Thursday, the Federal Trade Commission sued to block Nvidia’s $40 billion acquisition of Arm from SoftBank Group Corp. 9984, +7.76% that has met with several headwinds since it was first announced back in late 2020. AMD AMD, -3.44% shares, which fell into a correction on Friday, declined 3.4% to close at $139.06 on Monday. Shares are now 13.7% below their closing high of $161.09 set on Nov. 29. While in much better shape than Nvidia’s possible acquisition, AMD has yet to close on its $35 billion acquisition of Xilinx Inc. XLNX, -1.68%, which it still expects by the end of the year. AMD and Xilinx shareholders both approved the deal back in April. Meanwhile, Intel Corp. INTC, +3.53% shares bounced back Monday, closing up 3.5% at $50.99, but were still mired in bear territory, nearly 26% off their 52-week closing high of $68.26 set on April 9." MY COMMENT Let it die.....why prolong the suffering. Put us all out of our misery......please.
As some of you know I am heavy on AMD and NVDA on my nonretirement portfolio and have been for a long time. Corrections are normal. Corrections in tech are not for the faint of heart and much more dramatic than S&P pullbacks. Both pulled back around 19-20% from all time highs. but as the article above mentions that we have accumulated some pretty amazing gains this year that even with that large of a 'correction' we are still well ahead of any benchmark index. What did I do yesterday?? Did I panic and sell??? Did I sit and do nothing! That's the usual answer but this time I added more. The additional shares will be a short term addition. When my number gets hit I will pull out and return to savings. Gambling? yes. But I like my odds here better than Vegas! Time will tell.
The difference in what yu are doing TireSmoke is that you have awareness and a plan. the money that yu are using for a VERY CONCENTRATED and RISKY strategy is balanced by your retirement portfolio which is much more conservatively invested. Nothing wrong with using a HIGH RISK strategy.......as long as it is understood and thought out and the person appreciates the RISK. For the most part......you are letting a couple of winners run......big time. I did the same thing when I was younger and took a FLYER on Microsoft using ALL my available liquid cash to buy 1000 shares in 1990. I let it run through many splits to a very high value. BUT.....eventually.....I did spread that money around into my NORMAL portfolio model.
I like this little article..........it is investing TRUTH......plus I like pecans. How Growing Pecans Made Me a Better Investor https://americanconsequences.com/how-growing-pecans-made-me-a-better-investor/ (BOLD is my opinion R what I consider important content) (I have omitted the end of this little article which is a........commercial) "Two decades ago, I made a serendipitous discovery on my central Florida homestead… A lone pecan tree… Now, a lot of agriculture is produced in central Florida – most notably citrus, blueberries, and winter vegetables. But almost no one grows pecans commercially. You see, most native soil types here in Florida aren’t ideal for pecans like they are a couple of hours north. There’s too much sand and not enough “Georgia red clay.” But the spot where I discovered this pecan tree is unusual… There was quite a bit of red clay all around it… so much that after doing some additional research, I planted 60 more pecan trees. Those trees started as sticks in the ground. Today, 20-plus years later, many of them are between 20 feet and 30 feet tall and provide a robust supply of pecans. Take a look… If all goes well during any given year, the crop is harvested in September, dries in October, and then gets “shelled” in early November – just in time for the holidays. It’s hard work, but the payoff is enjoying some of the best pecans I’ve ever eaten. Another benefit of my two-decade journey growing pecans is the investment insights I’ve picked up as a result. Today, I’ll share my three most valuable lessons with you… No. 1: I learned to forgo early returns in favor of greater long-term gains… A newly planted pecan tree takes about seven years to produce its first substantial crop. That’s a long time to wait for a return on your investment. But if all goes well, once it’s established and properly cared for, a pecan tree can produce strong annual crops for decades. In effect, a pecan grower doesn’t cash in on early crops – he’s hoping for annuity-like crops long into the future. Twenty years later, I can wholeheartedly say the trade-off has been worthwhile. When I began growing the trees, I thought that my grove would never reach the quality of production possible in more fertile areas, like southern Georgia. But year after year, my harvests continue to impress me. Nowadays, my harvests are large enough that I can sell the pecans locally, give some to neighbors, and still have plenty left over for my family and me to enjoy. This success has emboldened my long-term investor instincts… I’ve come to appreciate that having a longer time horizon is an edge in today’s financial markets. As a result, my portfolio is filled with stocks I hope never to sell. These include volatile small caps that I expect ‒ despite significant ups and downs along the way ‒ to grow into larger businesses with higher stock prices. Saber Capital Management’s John Huber is a money manager who also believes strongly in what he calls the “time horizon edge”… He writes about it in his shareholder essays. Here’s how he describes it… Patience [is] an attribute that forms the foundations of one of the most enduring edges in all of markets; an edge whose moat is only widening as time horizons continue to shorten and the speed of information continues to quicken… The edge in today’s stock market comes not from trying to compete within that noisy arena for better information, but rather from going “over the top” of all of that noise and truly evaluating stocks as long-term ownership stakes in real businesses. A funny thing happens when you start thinking of stocks as “long-term ownership stakes in real businesses”… You become much more selective. You pay more attention to the likelihood they’ll grow into larger ‒ and more valuable ‒ businesses over time. In other words, you capitalize on the time horizon edge by focusing on both quality and durability. Now, let’s move on to my second important lesson… No. 2: I learned how to prepare for adversity… Most people love an unusually long period of dry weather. They also consider periods of heavy rain as nothing more than a minor, short-term annoyance. But when you’re growing pecans, both can severely harm your crop… even if the harvest is still months away. Last spring, for instance, I couldn’t spray my trees or put down any fertilizer for almost a month due to extreme dryness and high winds. After decades of doing this, I know one thing for sure… Each year, Mother Nature will throw me a twist that I haven’t experienced before. Knowing and accepting this ahead of time makes it easier to deal with whatever that twist turns out to be. That’s because I’ve already prepared myself mentally for adversity, considered some of the likely scenarios, and developed contingency plans. For example, since May tends to be an unpredictable month, I had my supplies on-hand and ready when the weather returned to normal in June. Adversity is a big part of investing, too… Most often, it results from sharply declining stock prices. No one knows for sure when a stock – or the market as a whole – will drop. But if you’re mentally ready before it happens, you can better avoid “falling prey to desperation,” as I wrote in July about legendary football coach Bill Walsh… The March 2020 market freefall occurred because many folks became indiscriminate sellers… They wanted out of everything they owned, no matter the price… They had fallen prey to desperation. This is almost never the best course of action – and it certainly wasn’t last year, either… As we all know, stocks soon rebounded and have since gone on to all-time highs… We can’t practice for these kinds of situations like a football team can. But we can (and must) consider how we’ll respond to them before they arrive… That way, as Walsh eloquently put it, “we can concentrate without falling prey to desperation.” Said another way, we must have the nerve to stick with our long-term financial plan. Finally, let’s close with my third and most valuable lesson… No. 3: I’ve learned to unlock the potential of ‘diffused’ thinking… Great investment opportunities are rarely obvious. It takes time and hard work to uncover them. That’s why a normal week for me involves reading dozens of articles, scouring through hundreds of pages of transcripts, screening thousands of stocks, and running dozens of the best ideas through our valuation models. Then, the real work comes from synthesizing these data fragments into actionable advice… To do that requires unlocking the full potential of “diffused” thinking. Because I’ve figured out how to do this, I can honestly say I’m more productive today at age 60 than I was at 30. And it’s all because I stumbled onto a book that I had purchased for a very different reason… Five years ago, I was looking for a way to help my youngest daughter as she struggled with math. After researching different options, I purchased Barbara Oakley’s A Mind for Numbers: How to Excel at Math and Science (Even If You Flunked Algebra). Little did I know that this book’s first 40 pages would do far more for me than for my daughter. As it turned out, she didn’t need the book at all. Oakley likes to refer to the two networks our brains switch between as “focused” and “diffused.” Focused thinking is what we use when we’re concentrating on something… like reading this essay. Diffused thinking is a more relaxed resting state. You’re either in one mode or the other. And here’s where it gets interesting. Solving difficult problems involves an exchange between the two modes. But as long as you’re in the focused mode, you’re blocking the diffused mode. The key, according to Oakley, is… [To] do something else until your brain is consciously free of any thought of the problem… Once you are distracted from the problem at hand, the diffused mode has access and can begin pinging about in its big-picture way to settle on a solution… This generally takes several hours. Armed with this insight, I suddenly appreciated the double duty that routine farm chores could achieve. For me, farming is mostly about three things ‒ mowing, spraying, and fertilizing. And each of these chores often takes two to four hours. Because my day usually starts between 4 a.m. and 6 a.m., that gives me as much as 15 hours of daylight to mix focused and diffused thinking activities. For instance, I might evaluate a stock or start writing an article for a couple of hours in the focused mode. Then, I’ll stop and spray trees for a couple hours, allowing the diffused mode to kick in. When I go back to work at my desk again, I often find the extended diffused “break” has helped me solve whatever problem I had left behind – and has even provided fresh insights that weren’t there before. When I’m not doing farm chores, I find that playing the drums, swimming, and weightlifting ‒ all done back-to-back ‒ can also be excellent diffused-mode activities. In short, learning how my brain best solves problems has unlocked tremendous productivity in my regular day job… and, in turn, has helped me become a better investor." MY COMMENT Yes.....all of the above is the BASIC format for investing success. I particularly agree with the third "lesson". Study and research is GREAT.....but.....taking time to relax and allow your brain to catch up and work.....on it's own is important. I learned very early in life......doing sports as a kid......that there war REAL POWER in using VISUALIZATION. Identifying and visualizing goals is a very powerful technique for achieving success. I alo believe in the brain technique in the third part of this article. As usual.......the techniques and habits of long term investing.......are very simple. The hard part is the determination and ability to put a plan in place and stick with it.
HOT, HOT, HOT.....open to the markets today. My guess........the OMI TRUTH is being realized. Since just a few days after this variant was identified......there have been posts on here telling the TRUTH about it. That TRUTH........the symptoms that it causes are very MILD.......simply like a mild cold. This information was EASILY available to anyone that choose to look and do some research. It is still a little early to put OMI.....totally......to bed........ but........... it is looking very LIKELY that it will end up being nothing.....and.....perhaps even a positive for herd immunity and the future as the virus evolves and becomes less dangerous.....just like is the NORM for most viruses like this one. The lesson for investors.......DO NOT believe the media.......or bureaucratic...... fear mongering. Do your own research. With the modern internet.....the source information is out there........you just have to put in the work and effort to find it.
Well.....I had to look, it is such a BOOMING market today. I have one stock that is slightly down.....Home Depot. Of the other nine stocks......one is up by less than 1%. The other EIGHT stocks are ALL up between 1.5% to 5.02%. MOST are well over a 2% gain so far today. Can this stick till the close? Who knows. I dont see anything in my reading that is even slightly a negative today. If we are LUCKY.....no politician or FED member or other opinion maker......will think they have to come out and TALK today. That is about the ONLY risk that I see to the markets today.....other than profit taking.......some MORON not being able to keep their mouth shut........and tanking the markets. Is this week going to be the start of the......EXPECTED......Santa Claus rally? Hope so......I could use another 4-8% gain for the year before it gets locked in the historical record and we move on. Looks like I am about a day behind TomB16. He hit a new all time high the other day. I might hit one today or tomorrow if this little rally continues.
Owning a HOME is probably the best form of diversification for any stock investor. LATELY.....owning a home in most areas of the country has also contributed SIGNIFICANTLY to a massive increase in net worth for many people. HERE are the current HOT home markets. Cities Where the Most Homes Are Selling Above Asking Price https://porch.com/advice/cities-where-the-most-homes-are-selling-above-asking-price (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) While the red-hot real estate market has shown some recent signs of cooling in the transition to the traditionally slower fall and winter seasons, the market remains highly competitive for homebuyers. Throughout 2020 and 2021, the market has seen steep increases in home prices as a growing number of buyers compete for a limited inventory of homes. These conditions have required bidders to be aggressive in their offers to beat out competitors, often offering amounts significantly above sellers’ asking price. The median sales price of U.S. homes has risen by more than 20% since last summer, setting historic records and topping $400,000 for the first time earlier this year. And the conditions contributing to this competitive environment show little sign of slowing down. One of the major issues is a constraint on supply. Fewer sellers listed their homes during early months of the pandemic, which sent inventory to record lows late in 2020. Even after the supply of existing homes returned to pre-pandemic levels, new construction has struggled to keep up with demand due to builders’ difficulties securing materials and labor. And these recent conditions do not even reflect the fact that the U.S. already had a severe shortage of homes prior to the pandemic, according to statistics from Freddie Mac. Seasonality in the market has finally slowed the upward trajectory of prices, but the share of homes selling above asking price is still well above historic levels. In most years before the pandemic, the percentage of homes selling above asking hovered around 20% during off-peak times and around 25% during the busy summer season. In 2020 and 2021, however, the share has remained much higher than usual, peaking at 56.4% in June 2021. The average sale-to-list percentage has paralleled these trends, with the ratio nationally holding above 100% for most of 2021. The hot real estate market is a nationwide phenomenon, but some locations are especially competitive and more likely to see sales prices exceed the asking price. In these locations, the demand issue may be felt more strongly as economic growth or migration bring more buyers into the market, while supply constraints may be worsened by land availability and regulations on zoning and development that make it harder to build. Five states—Massachusetts, Colorado, California, New Hampshire, and Washington—have more than 60% of homes selling above asking price in 2021, and most other leading states are found on the coasts. In contrast, states in the central and southern U.S. tend to have a much lower percentage. Similar patterns hold at the metro level. Many of the cities where homes are selling at high prices are found in locations where housing is in high demand. Unsurprisingly, the top three large metros where homes are selling above asking are all found in California, which has some of the greatest challenges with housing of any state. The data used in this analysis is from Redfin and the U.S. Census Bureau. To determine the locations where the most homes are selling above asking price, researchers at Porch calculated the percentage of homes that sold above asking between January 2021 and September 2021. In the event of a tie, the location with the greater average sale-to-list percentage was ranked higher. To improve relevance, only metropolitan areas with at least 100,000 residents and available data from Redfin were included. Here are the metros where the most homes sold above asking in 2021. Large Metros Where the Most Homes Sold Above Asking 15. Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Percentage of homes that sold above asking: 59.6% Average sale-to-list percentage: 102.8% Median days on market: 16 Median sale price: $340,580. 14. Richmond, VA Percentage of homes that sold above asking: 60.8% Average sale-to-list percentage: 102.8% Median days on market: 9 Median sale price: $312,114. 13. Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Percentage of homes that sold above asking: 61.1% Average sale-to-list percentage: 102.2% Median days on market: 28 Median sale price: $491,650. 12. Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA Percentage of homes that sold above asking: 61.1% Average sale-to-list percentage: 103.2% Median days on market: 7 Median sale price: $497,534. 11. Providence-Warwick, RI-MA Percentage of homes that sold above asking: 61.3% Average sale-to-list percentage: 102.4% Median days on market: 25 Median sale price: $363,560. 10. Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH Percentage of homes that sold above asking: 62.1% Average sale-to-list percentage: 103.3% Median days on market: 20 Median sale price: $589,762. 9. Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Percentage of homes that sold above asking: 63.3% Average sale-to-list percentage: 105.3% Median days on market: 6 Median sale price: $660,383. 8. Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY Percentage of homes that sold above asking: 63.8% Average sale-to-list percentage: 105.9% Median days on market: 11 Median sale price: $201,151. 7. Salt Lake City, UT Percentage of homes that sold above asking: 63.9% Average sale-to-list percentage: 102.9% Median days on market: 10 Median sale price: $454,033. 6. Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX Percentage of homes that sold above asking: 64.1% Average sale-to-list percentage: 106.2% Median days on market: 29 Median sale price: $452,792. 5. Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO Percentage of homes that sold above asking: 65.0% Average sale-to-list percentage: 103.5% Median days on market: 6 Median sale price: $519,201. 4. Rochester, NY Percentage of homes that sold above asking: 67.8% Average sale-to-list percentage: 107.1% Median days on market: 9 Median sale price: $186,704. 3. Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA Percentage of homes that sold above asking: 68.3% Average sale-to-list percentage: 103.3% Median days on market: 8 Median sale price: $535,490. 2. San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA Percentage of homes that sold above asking: 74.6% Average sale-to-list percentage: 108.1% Median days on market: 13 Median sale price: $1,127,851. 1. San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA Percentage of homes that sold above asking: 75.7% Average sale-to-list percentage: 106.6% Median days on market: 13 Median sale price: $1,336,043" MY COMMENT In my local.....Central Texas.....area....the market is STILL very HOT. It seemed like it was slightly slowing for a while in the early Fall....but now it seems as strong as ever. Prices are STRONG and FIRM. The increase to my NET WORTH has been significant and is very welcome. I have a family member that lives in the Portland Oregon area and they are seeing the same thing there in that area. The house they bought for about $900,000....four to five years ago......has now increased to about $1.5MILLION. At the moment the Ten Year Yield is at about 1.445%......STILL....amazingly at the low end of the scale for the past 100 years. Mortgage rates are STILL in the tank......EXTREMELY.......low. This is the saving grace for anyone looking to buy a home. The RECORD LOW rates make home buying STILL possible.......in spite of the price increases. But.....with all cash buyers and bids over listing price it is STILL a difficult market. In my area the average listing is taking about 2-3 weeks to sell. A good improvement from the 1-2 day selling FRENZY we were seeing in the summer. BUT......as I said the market is STILL extremely strong and very much a sellers market. In my area I dont expect that to change for years......big companies continue to POUR into this area and they are bringing with them massive increases in population. This is FUELING all cash buying.
Great day. 2.39% increase which beat the S&P of 2.07% and brought me back to nearly my high. A great day indeed. G
KILLER.......day today in the markets and my account. I was TOTALLY in the green with all ten positions. My LOW gains were.....Home Depot at +0.12% and Honeywell at +0.44%. ALL the rest of my stocks were between +1.41% and +7.96%. I got in a good beat on the SP500 by +0.80%. For a brief moment this morning I thought I could hear the jingle bells of Santa's sleigh somewhere off in the distance. This action yesterday and today kind of reminds me of a..........SANTA CLAUS RALLY.
I will let this little article do the talking about today. Stock market news live updates: Stocks extend gains, with virus concerns abating https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-december-7-2021-231700132.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks jumped on Tuesday to extend gains from earlier this week, with volatility stemming from concerns about the Omicron variant at least momentarily abating. The Nasdaq outperformed against the S&P 500 and Dow, rising 3% in intraday trading. The S&P 500 and Dow also moved sharply higher, however, with gains of 2.2% and 1.6%, respectively. The Dow's 1.9% move higher on Monday had been its best since March. More upbeat commentary and preliminary data suggesting the Omicron variant may not produce as severe of infections as previously feared helped boost markets over the past couple sessions. And elsewhere, renewed commitments by Chinese economic officials to focus on policies that would boost economic growth helped fuel global risk assets. Earlier on Monday, the People's Bank of China cut its reserve requirement ratio for banks in the region, easing monetary policy at a time when many other global central banks including the U.S. Federal Reserve have been starting to move toward rolling back highly accommodative policies. Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), told CNN on Sunday that "thus far it does not look like there's a great degree of severity" to the Omicron variant relative to prior mutations of the virus. And pharmaceutical company GlaxoSmithKline said that preliminary data showed its coronavirus antibody treatment remained effective against the "full combination of mutations" present in the Omicron variant, according to a statement Tuesday. The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) decreased to just below 24 as investors assessed the risks of the Omicron variant in light of new remarks. This brought the so-called "fear gauge" down from its peak of more than 35 on Friday, or its highest level since January. "The level of volatility is somewhat logical here because a lot of this started prior to the Omicron variant really emerging. We knew that [Fed Chair Jerome] Powell was changing course in terms of his policy actions, he was speaking more hawkishly. Markets were already in the process of re-pricing a bit," Jim Caron, Morgan Stanley Investment Management fixed income portfolio manager, told Yahoo Finance Live on Monday. "I know after Thanksgiving [news about Omicron] came out and that created a pretty big volatile event, but I think the initial conditions where valuations were pretty full, we knew the Fed was starting to change course and starting to tighten financial conditions a bit, and that's going to mean that asset prices are going to have to reprice," he added. "You start to get somewhat of a perfect storm when you add a health risk." While technology stocks outperformed on Tuesday, the move comes after weeks of these names lagging the broader market as expectations for a monetary policy shift increased in the U.S. Alongside concerns of the Omicron variant, investors have also been ascertaining when and how robustly the Federal Reserve will move to accelerate its asset-purchase tapering program and raise interest rates from their current near-zero levels as inflationary pressures continue to mount. On Friday, the Labor Department is set to release its November Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is expected to show the fastest year-over-year rise in core consumer prices since 1991, at a 4.6% annual gain. "Tech and growth stocks are the longest-duration assets, which means they're going to be the most negatively impacted in valuation by any bump up in inflation which would take interest rates up," Paul Meeks, portfolio manager for Independent Wealth Solutions Management, told Yahoo Finance Live. "But on the other hand, what the Fed is doing and is even talking about doing, which is going from accommodative to more restrictive monetary policy, is a known." 11:15 a.m. ET: U.S. exports surge by a record, narrowing trade deficit to six-month low The yawning U.S. trade deficit narrowed markedly in October amid a record surge in exports, helping tee up a strong fourth-quarter gain in U.S. gross domestic product. The U.S. trade gap narrowed to $67.1 billion in October, the Commerce Department said Tuesday, marking the lowest in six months. Consensus economists were expecting a deficit of $66.8 billion, according to Bloomberg consensus data. September's trade deficit was revised up to a record high of $81.4 billion from the $80.9 billion previously reported. Exports jumped at an 8.1% clip in October, led in turn by an 11.1% jump in goods exports. Imports rose by a more mild 0.9%. "The 8.1% m/m surge in exports in October means that net trade is on course to add about 1 [percentage point] to fourth-quarter GDP growth, which we think will be 6.5% annualized, and provides more evidence that global supply chain bottlenecks have started to ease," Andrew Hunter, senior U.S. economist for Capital Economics, wrote in a note." MY COMMENT It is ........very telling.....that good old Dr Fauci is NOW backing off from his fear mongering statements......just last week. Suddenly he is saying....well this variation looks like it is going to possibly be mild. Looks like the first of the vaccine companies is now seeing the same TRUTH. Time will tell. It is very interesting to see what the markets.......actually......look like if left to themselves. We have gone through two day now without any of the........extraneous blather.....from the FED and other officials and bureaucrats. It is interesting how the markets react when they are not being negatively jawboned by constant talk in the media.
This "journalist".....seems to have perfect timing.......after the last two market days........NOT. Investors clearly don’t believe in Santa Claus: analyst https://finance.yahoo.com/news/investors-clearly-dont-believe-in-santa-claus-analyst-211854761.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stock market technicals suggest investors have next to no belief in a year-end rally — also commonly known as a Santa Claus Rally — said Bank of America chief equity technical analyst Stephen Suttmeier. “Investors have given up on the December rally. Sentiment shows that tactical contrarian bullish levels of fearfulness are building. The 3-month VIX relative to the VIX triggered a tactical capitulation signal last week and the 5-day total put/call rose above 1.0 for the first time since the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election. In addition, AAII Bearish Sentiment hit a 2021 year-to-date high in bearishness last week,” said Suttmeier in a new research note to clients on Tuesday. A Santa Claus Rally is one where equities climb higher in the final week of December through the initial two trading days in January. Its precise cause has never been greatly explained — theories range from year-end tax considerations to people spending their fat bonuses to buy stocks to general season effects. But the data supports the strong propensity of a Santa Claus Rally, as TheStreet’s historical market data expert Mark Hulbert writes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has returned 2.5% on average in November through December going back to 1896, Hulbert notes. That is above the average two-month gain for all the other months of roughly 1.3%. If there isn’t a Santa Claus Rally this year, it wouldn’t be a total shock. Stocks have seen wild swings since Black Friday amid heightened concerns on the Omicron variant and worries about peak liquidity now that the Fed is poised to taper its bond purchases. Despite a powerful two-day rally this week, the S&P 500 is still off more than 1% from its Nov. 18 high. Shares in high-flying tech stocks continue to see tepid buying, notably Tesla which is down 15% from its Nov. 4 high. Salesforce shares have lost 13% from their Nov. 8 high. BofA’s Suttmeier thinks the stage is being set for a mixed start to 2022. “In our view, the cyclical bull market for U.S. equities from the 2020 COVID-19 low shows signs of its age. This makes for a vulnerable 2022. Late 2020 saw a plethora of bullish breakouts across indices and indicators to confirm a healthy cyclical bull market and the potential for the rally from March 2020 to continue. Late 2021, however, stands in stark contrast to where the technicals stood a year ago. As we move toward 2022, many indicators across breadth, volume, credit and financial conditions have mature signals, bearish divergences or failed breakouts,” Suttmeier warns." MY COMMENT Oh excuse me......this guy making this "prediction" is an ANALYST.....not a journalist. He is giving the " technical Analysis" view of the end of the year. I would give him about a 50/50 chance of being right.....in other words about the same as RANDOM CHANCE. In fact.......if it was me.....I would be embarrassed to be sending this to my clients after the past couple of days. Not the greatest timing. I happen to think he is DEAD WRONG and we will look back on what happened over the past two days as the start of an EPIC year end rally. Yes.......a Santa Claus rally. Yes.....I do believe in Santa. BUT.....talking about FANTASY........I do NOT believe in Technical Analysis.....in the slightest.
Sounds about right andyvds.....since the NASDAQ 100 was up today by 3.03%. For readers....the TQQQ is a ETF that is set up to do about 3X the result of the Nasdaq 100. It is a leveraged product that uses derivatives and debt to increase the returns to investors with a goal of doing 3X the return of the Nasdaq 100. HERE.....for those that are curious is some info on the TQQQ ETF: "TQQQ Among leveraged ETFs, PowerShare's, ProShare, UltraPro TQQQ is one of the largest with assets under management of $4.31 billion at the end of the fourth quarter.6 TQQQ is also one of the more heavily traded leveraged ETFs in the U.S. with an average daily volume of 36.98 million shares.7 Due in part to QQQ's popularity, issuers of leveraged ETFs tapped traders' thirst for more exotic ways to play the Nasdaq-100. That includes the ProShares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ). TQQQ's objective is simple: To deliver triple the daily returns of Nasdaq-100.8 So if that index rises by 1% on a particular day, TQQQ should jump by 3%. TQQQ, as is the case with any leveraged ETF, is an instrument best used over intraday time frames, not as a buy-and-hold investment.3 Investors and traders that do not consider themselves “active” and “risk-tolerant” should eschew leveraged ETFs. According to ProShares—the largest issuer of leveraged ETFs, leveraged ETFs come with additional risks and nuances not found in traditional ETFs. They state: "Due to the compounding of daily returns, ProShares' returns over periods other than one day will likely differ in amount and possibly direction from the target return for the same period. These effects may be more pronounced in funds with larger or inverse multiples and in funds with volatile benchmarks."" https://www.investopedia.com/investing/qqq-vs-tqqq-difference-and-which-better/ For readers.......my comment......if you use this vehicle.....BE CAREFUL. This is a LEVERAGED product and losses will ALSO MULTIPLY.
andyvds.....a question. Do you hold TQQQ? Do you use it as a trading vehicle or a longer term vehicle? What has your experience been like with it? Just curious.
More amazing is that he will be wrong more than half the time, think he is right nearly all the time, and legions of people will continue to follow his advice despite him underperforming the market for his entire career.
Yes. I hold about 10% of my portfolio in TQQQ - long term intention. It's a relative new position, but it has a good performance history. I'm heavy into QQQ (50%) also. Yes I know it's a higher risk - but I think big tech will be the bullish for the next 10 years and outperform the rest of the stock market.
