Anyone who can take the auto industry seriously after the bullshit that is going down now is beyond me.
TSLA 4 at 916.00 two days ago. Got these in my playtrader account, was looking for a quick flip. May hold a few more days, PAPA ELON is in the house. And yes its a small account.
I watched a feed from Giga Shanghai and there were 14 cars exit the Model 3 general assembly building in 10 minutes. That comes to 84 per hour or 2000 per day. That comes to 700K Model 3 per year, if you factor in two 10 day outages for GA line maintenance. 10 minutes is a pretty tiny sample, so take this with a grain of salt, but if they can produce 700K Model 3 per year and we know MIC Model Y is online and ramping quickly, this is a 1M vehicle per year plant that will ramp to 1.5 over the next year. There have been conflicting reports of delays at Giga Berlin but it is pretty clear they continue to await final production permits. Texas appears to be on track for January production but I would not expect a lot of cars produced in Texas until March. Battery manufacturing equipment is installed and appears to be calibrated and tested. Fremont has been chugging along, this whole time. The parking lot is jammed with new cars ready to ship. I haven't kept track of Fremont capacity since approximating the output at roughly 450K vehicle annual production in 2019. Frame casting was just coming online, at the time. One thing is clear, Tesla is producing more than 1M cars per year, right now, without Texas and Berlin.
Model Y rolled out of the GA building at a rate of 14 units over 10 minutes. That's about the same as the Model 3 GA line was producing earlier today.
One last comment. I highly doubt Tesla can produce 1.4M vehicles at Giga Shanghai over the next year. The reason I doubt it is because they are battery constrained. Tesla has been cell constrained for the better part of a decade. They have used a technique they call "burst production". That is, they wait until they have a good inventory of cells and then build cars at their maximum rate until the supply is depleted. This is how they have been able to effectively improve production efficiency during a period when they had more general assembly capacity that was required for the number of cells available. I highly suspect this is happening at Giga Shanghai. The new building being built on the initial lease is probably going to be a cell manufacturing plant. I expect that plant will be online, producing 4680 cells, by July 2022. That also means they will be building structural packs for the Y. The reason I doubt they will be building structural packs for the 3 is because the structural pack, as far as I know, is designed around 4680 cells and the model Y. I'm sure they will circle back and make a structural pack for the 3, if they haven't already done so. Right now, they have two pack architectures for the MIC Model 3 (nickel and iron batts). They still have big contracts for 2170 cells, so I expect one of the cars will keep the existing pack and it will probably be the 3.
Nice! It's one of the top rated US analyst picks at the moment: https://alphapicks.co.uk/2021/12/24/auto-stocks-analyst-recommendations/
The outflow of inventory from Giga Shanghai, right now, is so far beyond anything I've seen before that I'm not sure what to make of it. More than double the already high rate. Either they are behind on shipments and are trying to catch up at the last minute, or they have achieved an astonishingly high production rate. I think the former is more likely. 2022 is going to be an amazing year for Tesla.
Blowout production and delivery number. Tesla delivered 308,600 vehicles in Q4, and delivered a total of 936,172 vehicles in 2021, smashing Wall St expectations of 266k. Link: https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2021-vehicle-production-deliveries
