Here is yet another housing market list.....the hottest markets of 2021. I LIKE IT since my local market was NUMBER ONE. I would definately NOT like it if I was looking to buy a house in this area. The 10 hottest housing markets of 2021 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/10-hottest-housing-markets-of-2021-153425395.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Despite two years into a pandemic, the hot housing market isn’t showing any signs of cooling off. Most markets grew by double digits in 2021, while the top three markets in the nation grew more than 30% in the third quarter, according to data provided by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) to Yahoo Finance. And five of the top 10 are in Florida. “Florida does not have a personal income state tax, so that is a big draw for workers and retirees,” said Gay Cororaton, NAR’s senior economist and director of housing and commercial research. “Of course, one can’t forget Florida’s great weather and beautiful beaches.” Home prices are also still relatively affordable in Florida compared with the rest of the country, Cororaton said. The average price of a single-family home in the U.S. is $363,700, while many Florida markets have median home prices below that. This makes Florida more attractive to potential homebuyers, especially if you're willing to look outside of the tourist hotspots of South Florida or near the theme parks. “One can typically get a single-family existing-home price in Ocala for $240,000,” Cororaton said. But people are flocking to other states as well. Here are the 10 hottest housing markets in the country, according to NAR. 10. New York-Jersey City-White Plains, NY-NJ Percentage increase: 24.5% Median sales price in third quarter: $563,000 9. Port St. Lucie, FlA Percentage increase: 24.9% Median sales price in third quarter: $343,500 8. Sebastian-Vero Beach, FL Percentage increase: 25.7% Median sales price in third quarter: $330,000 7. Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Percentage increase: 25.8% Median sales price in the third quarter: $429,600 6. Salt Lake City, UT Percentage increase: 26.2% Median sales price in third quarter: $500,800 5. Punta Gorda, FL Percentage increase: 27.5% Median sales price in third quarter: $325,000 4. Ocala, FL Percentage increase: 29.7% Median sales price in third quarter: $240,000 3. Boise City-Nampa, ID Percentage increase: 31.5% Median sales price in third quarter: $480,800 2. Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, FL Percentage increase: 32% Median sales price in third quarter: $640,000 1. Austin-Round Rock, TX Percentage increase: 33.5% Median sales price in third quarter: $498,400 Will this hot market trend continue in the new year? Home prices continue to climb, and don’t expect them to slow down in 2022, according to Cororaton. And that could mean homebuyers will continue to seek out affordable alternatives. “Austin and Boise will continue to have strong housing markets in 2022 because of their strong job growth and because they are still relatively affordable compared to say San Francisco, San Jose, or Seattle,” Cororaton said. But as prices rise there, other nearby markets could benefit. For instance. San Antonio and Dallas-Fort Worth are both more affordable than Austin. If more companies focus less on in-person work, Austinites might not feel compelled to stick around for long. This is also happening in other areas of the country, Cororaton said, like Pensacola and the Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville areas in Florida. “The ability to work from home fully remotely disconnects the relationship of where people live and work," Cororaton said. "So I expect a shift to these more affordable, hidden gem markets.”" MY COMMENT Having lived for over 30 years in the Seattle area and being very familiar with prices there.....I would say prices are EQUAL or HIGHER here in Austin. Of course....in both areas it is dependent on where you want to live. Round Rock, TX is a bit lower in price as is Cedar Park, TX. Both areas are close to Austin on the North side of town......and.....are desirable areas. Kyle and Buda are close to Austin on the South side of town and are more affordable. The Lakeway area a little further to the West is very expensive. Bastrop area about 20-40 miles to the East is medium expensive. Prices in Manor and Elgin to the East of Austin are relatively reasonable. I dont foresee ANY change in the very HOT real estate market in Austin or any of the nearby town and cities above any time soon. It will be another.....very happy new year....for those that already own a home in AUSTIN or any of the areas near Austin above. For buyers....it will continue to be a challenge.
Here is a companion article to the above article. The hottest housing market of 2021 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hottest-housing-market-of-2021-austin-texas-154203558.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The U.S. housing market has been “bonkers” and is “still nuts” — words recently used by real estate guru Barbara Corcoran on Yahoo Finance Live. Since COVID-19 emerged, homes are being sold at a record clip and prices are skyrocketing across the nation. But the frenzy is especially magnified in one Sunbelt City. Austin is this year’s Yahoo Finance 2021 hottest housing market. According to almost every real estate company that tracks home prices, no matter how you slice and dice the data, home prices in the capital city of Texas have soared, outpacing the nation. It’s also probably not much of a surprise to industry watchers and at least one real estate company. Zillow predicted Austin would be the hottest city of 2021 way back in January. Now Zillow (Z) is predicting by the end of this year the Austin metropolitan area will become the least affordable major metro region for homebuyers outside of California; it has already surpassed Boston, Miami, and New York City. “The Austin market has stood out and it’s because of the phenomenal shift in remote work, outperformance of tech industry and search for affordability,” said Danielle Hale, economist at Realtor.com, adding that even though prices have risen in the market it’s still half as expensive as other major cities. Median sales price of single-family homes in the Austin metro area rose 33.5% to $498,400 in the third quarter of 2021 from the same period a year ago, far outpacing the national median home price increase of 16% for the same time period, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Among the 50 major cities that Realtor.com tracks, Austin led the pack in terms of annual median listing price growth by posting a 15.9% increase. Similarly, NerdWallet found that among the nation’s largest metro areas, Austin saw the highest increase in listing price — a 29% rise in the third quarter from the same period last year. Austin is “well positioned as a fairly affordable destination to buy a family-sized home in a location that has a lot of cultural cache,” said Jeff Tucker, Zillow’s senior economist. 'A cool city' Like many other warmer climate metros, Austin benefited from the COVID migration. But some would argue folks from all around the nation and even world were already flocking to the City of the Violet Crown (Austin shares this moniker with Athens, Greece) well before the virus arrived in the U.S., and not just for South by Southwest (SXSW), an annual interactive media and music festival. “Austin was popular before COVID, it is a cool city,” said Elizabeth Renter, NerdWallet’s data analyst. “It would be topping the list of price increases and inventory decreases regardless of COVID, maybe not to this extreme.” While most people arriving in Austin came from Los Angeles, San Jose, and San Francisco in 2020, according to a Zillow analysis, Tucker noted that the city is “a sweet spot, it attracts a lot of people from all over (migration from the West Coast, Northwest and Midwest).” Other U.S. cities like Miami tend to only be destinations for Northeast and Midwest residents, and Boise catches the eye of mostly Californians. “Austin is a very progressive city that offers everything from not just a scenic perspective: rolling hills, great lakes. It has a very active lifestyle, it’s a tech-centric city,” said Romeo Manzanilla, former president for Austin Board of Realtors and managing director for Compass. “People from the East and West Coasts can identify with it.” It is home to billionaire and newly anointed Time Person of the Year, Elon Musk, who officially moved Tesla’s (TSLA) headquarters from California this year. Similarly, software maker Oracle (ORCL) has decamped to Austin, where it opened a campus in 2018, from Silicon Valley. And just last month, Samsung said it plans to build a $17 billion semiconductor factory right outside of Austin that is expected to be operational in the second half of 2024. Meanwhile, next year Apple (AAPL) is expected to complete its $1 billion, 133-acre campus, which will eventually house 15,000 employees in Austin. And since establishing its first office in Austin in 2007, Google (GOOG, GOOGL) has expanded its office space in the city and now has 1,100 employees there. The latest spate of activity has essentially revived Silicon Hills, a nickname given to Austin in the 1990s. “Companies relocating to or expanding secondary headquarters in Austin have created substantial job opportunities and drawn people in. The combination of a strong local economy with the flexibility that people don’t have to have a job in Austin” to live there has made the market a standout, said Hale. Job growth in Austin has been happening “for many years,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, in an email. “Based on the migration patterns of many Californians moving in, one can surmise it is due to tech sector expansion in the metro region.” During the third quarter of 2021, 54% of people looking for homes in Austin were from outside of Texas including home hunters from overseas, according to Hale. Forty-six percent came from other parts of the state. It also helps that Austin is in a “tax-friendly state (there’s no income tax) so it’s more beneficial for high-income taxpayers,” she added. People from the Bay Area and Los Angeles “have more liquid funds to come in and put in an offer [on a home] well above asking [price],” said Manzanilla. “They have made our market competitive.” Even before the onset of COVID in February 2020, the median home sales price in Austin was $325,000, far cheaper than a home in San Francisco, where the median sales price was $1.4 million, according to Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin. Still, that was more expensive than the national median home sales price of $302,000. “It has been a frustrating experience for long-time local residents. Trying to outbid new tech employees has been difficult,” said Yun. “Any monthly savings accumulated for a down payment has become irrelevant as home prices rose even faster than the savings rate.” But relief may be on the way, as experts note that there are early signs that the Austin housing market is cooling down. In fact, Fairweather said price growth has already peaked this year in April. Like the rest of the nation, price growth will subside to single-digit rates going into 2022, compared to as much as north of 20%, according to Fairweather. The number of homes for sale in Austin is also on the rise. According to NerdWallet, the number of homes listed for sale in Austin rose 73% in the third quarter of 2021 from the prior quarter, leading the largest metros in the nation in terms of inventory growth. That should help alleviate price pressure in the city, even as homes on the market fly off the shelf. During the third quarter of 2021, homes for sale were on the market for a mere 24 days, compared to 40 days nationally, according to NerdWallet’s Renter. Celebrity and Austin native Matthew McConaughey, who as a minority stakeholder in the MLS team Austin FC helped the city welcome its first professional sports team this year, summed up why the Austin is so hot in an extensive interview with Yahoo Finance Editor-in-chief Andy Serwer last year: “Austin used to be a college town, a government town, and a music town. It’s now a banker town, a tech town, and an international destination.”" MY COMMENT The "cool city" stuff is part of the internet MYTH of Austin......as is the Austin "music scene" internet MYTH. I should not say that.....but no one will believe me anyway....unless you have lived here for a good while.
I guess it is appropriate with everything that went on this year that we end the year with a RED day. I was also in the red at the end of the day. I lost out to the SP500 today by a slight amount........0.07%. A lackluster day today. My NON-TECH stocks helped me to avoid a total down day and held up my account some. Home Depot was nicely up over 1% today and Costco and Honeywell were also positive. Every little bit helps. I will post some performance numbers for 2021 once the funds in my account post their NAV and results for the day.
So....here are the FINAL figures for the year 2021......and......for the week. The SP500 edged out the NASDAQ 100 for the first place trophy this year.....by 0.26%. AND.....it was not a bad week with ALL the averages except for the NASDAQ showing a weekly gain. With all the weekly gains in the averages this week.....I guess we cant complain. DOW for year 2021 +18.73% DOW for the week +1.08% SP500 for year 2021 +26.89% SP500 for the week +0.85% NASDAQ 100 for year 2021 +26.63% NASDAQ 100 for the week +0.07% NASDAQ for year 2021 +21.39% NASDAQ for the week (-0.05%) RUSSELL for year 2021 +13.70% RUSSELL for the week +0.17% The above figures are change for the year for each average. The TOTAL RETURN figures for each average will be a little higher when dividends and capital gains being reinvested are figured in.
Well, it's been an interesting year for my Tesla heavy portfolio. My performance was all over the place at various points, but glad to end the year up 45%, vs. 27% for the S&P. I began the year with Tesla making up roughly 90% of my portfolio, and 10% in VUG. Around mid-year, I began reallocating into large, proven tech stocks, tech ETFs, and a small amount in some high risk stocks (Rivian and Rocket Lab). I am ending the year with the following allocations. These are not recommendations by any means. I'm just a somewhat inexperienced investor, attempting to come up with a personal investment strategy that will work for the long term. 49% Tesla 14% VGT 11% VUG 8% Google 8% Microsoft 5% Apple 3% Rivian 2% QQQM 0.6% Rocket Lab Looking forward to whatever next year has to offer!
2021......is DONE.......FINISHED.........IN THE CAN.......OVER WITH. It was an EPIC year for stock and fund investors. Big gains all over the place. I am sure that most if not all of us on here will have a very nice gain this year. Some people will be higher than others......some will beat the SP500 or other averages.......but regardless......it has been a VERY NICE YEAR. It is not VALID to compare results on here since we all have different GOALS and different strategies and different holdings. One thing we all have in common is the fact that we......CHOOSE....to be stock investors to try to achieve some level of financial freedom and security. All of us POSTERS and LURKERS.........at least most of us.........are LONG TERM INVESTORS. We are the silent majority of the investing world.
HERE is the TOTAL RETURN performance for the TEN stocks that I own. The data following each stock is......ONE YEAR......THREE YEAR.....and FIVE YEAR.....TOTAL RETURN. Some of these I held that entire time.....others for just part of the time. APPLE..........+34.10%..........+370%..........+553.8% AMAZON..........+2.6%..........+128.2%..........+349.8% NIKE..........+19.2%..........+134.7%..........+247.1% MICROSOFT..........+54.3%..........+249.5%..........+487.3% COSTCO..........+51.7%..........193.7%..........293.6% NVIDIA..........+125.3%..........+791.2%..........+1023.3% HOME DEPOT..........+57.8%..........158.5%..........243.2% HONEYWELL..........(-0.10%)..........+68.2%..........+106.2% GOOGLE..........+68.4%..........+179.4%..........+269.0% TESLA..........+54.1%..........+1502.9%..........+2404.4% Poor Amazon was a poor finisher this year. I had one stock, Honeywell, that showed a loss for this year. What I consider ESPECIALLY significant is that ALL of these companies would have doubled your money in FIVE YEARS or less. That is the POWER of long term investing and way beyond average.
I'm just doing the year end books. The last two days put us to 40% return. Unreal. I'm blown away to have these gains. My wife and I would like to extend our sincere grattitude to all the whacko nutjobs out there who are gambling their money on the stock market. I have pretty high confidence we will be hammered in the next two months. Of course, I haven't sold anything because my gut is a moron. Either way, it's a brave new world.
Here is how I ended 2021: Total account gain for 2021, currently ten stocks and the two funds below..........+34.76%. Mutual funds or ETF's: Schwab SP500 Index Fund, total return..........+28.99%. Fidelity Contra Fund, total return...........+25.15% I have exceeded BOTH my investing goals this year. Goal number one......I have continued my long term average annual return WELL ABOVE my goal of averaging 10% or better for the long term. Goal number two......I managed to beat the SP500 this year. As I usually say....goal number two....try to beat the SP500......is an "aspirational goal".......I dont make moves or actively trade my portfolio to try to achieve this goal. As to my two goals.....number one is PRIMARY. My long term......lifelong.......investing goal has been to double my money every 7 years. If I can average at least 10% per year for life I consider that a success. That is all it takes to rack up some real money over a lifetime. I no longer keep any data on this.......but I know it is well north of 14% over my lifetime. I quit keeping data back about 12 years ago....it was no longer relevant to me and was just busy work. This thread.......NOW...... contains my results from October of 2018 to December 31, 2021.......for anyone that wanted to go back and look.
Well EQT crashed the last couple of days so I ended up +16.10% on the year since 3/31 when I took control of my ira funds. Not bad but since the S&P gained 20% in the same period I'm sad. However after some champagne I will be joyous again!
I am really chuffed at our return but I wish to point out that in 2010 and 2011, we way under performed the market. I had just started managing my wife's portfolio and she had a couple of massive dogs sold to her by an investment advisor. She lost quite a bit of money, those years. Even without the drag, my gains were below market. The point being, we happen to have had a couple of above average years but we have also had below average. It will all even out somewhere near an average return, over time. I certainly make no claim to bragging rights.
Yes......back in the days before 2008/2009.....a gain of 16% was BIG. In fact....it is still BIG today. People have gotten spoiled by some of the gains years we have had. There is a reason that the long term historic average for the SP500 is 10-11% per year......because that is the NORM. That is the basis for my goal is to average 10% or more per year over the long term. When I look at my little mutual fund chart that I keep.......I see that the SP500 before the 2009 time period had the following total returns: 2002 (-22.6%) 2003 +28.5% 2004 +10.74% 2005 +4.8% 2006 +15.64% 2007 +5.39% 2008 (-37.0%) That is REALITY......not the years that we see gains of 25-35% in the SP500. As I said we have been spoiled. If I cherry pick years from 2008 on I see: 2010 +14.9% 2011 +1.9% 2012 +15,9% 2014 +13.5% 2015 +1.2% 2016 +12.3% 2018 (-4.52%) The BIG years with the gains of 20% or more are the EXCEPTION. It is also the EXCEPTION to get three years in a row like these: 2019 +31.4% 2020 +18.39% 2021 +28.9% You know what they say about reversion to the mean. I CELEBRATE the BIG year gains.....but at the same time I KNOW that they are outliers. They are not something you can count on.
I like this little article. 71 years of stock market data reveals investors may be happy in the New Year https://finance.yahoo.com/news/71-y...s-may-be-happy-in-the-new-year-173229105.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "After a nearly 29% total return for the S&P 500 this year, history suggests 2022 may see more gains for investors. Truist Advisory Services co-chief investment officer Keith Lerner found that going back to 1950, when the S&P 500 had a total return of at least 25% in a year, stocks usually rose in the following year. The outcome during that 71 year stretch: stocks advanced 82% of the time, or 14 out of 17 instances. As the data shows, however, it's not always sunshine and rainbows after a big year for stocks. Two of the three years where stocks failed to rise after 25%+ annual gains were 1981 and 1990. Lerner points out both of those periods commenced with recessions. The other down year was 1962, which Lerner says was challenged by a "flash crash" and "deteriorating investor confidence." Lerner doesn't see a recession in the cards for 2022, but acknowledges that it's likely stocks have more modest gains after a banner 2021. "History is only a guide and should be used alongside other factors, such as the business cycle and fundamentals. Still, the studies reviewed on performance following years with robust market gains, strong price momentum, and shallow pullbacks lend further support to our base case outlook for 2022. That is, we still favor stocks and expect the bull market to extend, though at a much more modest pace relative to 2021. The data also suggest investors should anticipate more normal and deeper corrections relative to the unusually shallow pullbacks seen over the past year. Thus, we remain positive yet realistic entering the new year," Lerner explains. Another up year for stocks on tap? To be sure, the market enters 2022 with considerable momentum that go a long way to nailing down a positive year ahead. The S&P 500 notched its 70th record close of the year on Wednesday. As Yahoo Finance's Alexandra Semenova points out, the S&P 500 recorded a new all-time high every month this year. That makes 2021 among the best years ever for investors. Meanwhile, well-known companies such as Apple, Home Depot, McDonald's, Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble continue to hover around record highs. "We encourage our clients not to get out, to stay in the market. When the recoveries hit, when the sentiment changes, it happens so quickly that often by the time you're able to get back into the market, you have already missed out," said Erin Gibbs, Main Street Asset Management chief investment officer, on Yahoo Finance Live." MY COMMENT I do think the......probability.....is for a good market year in 2022. I am thinking 15-20% gains. BUT.........I also believe there is a chance that the FED will drive the economy into a recession. I also believe that even if we have a nice UP year.....it will be very erratic and there will be some longer lasting corrections. The past couple of months have been very erratic and I expect that to be the NORM going forward.
WELL....my little area of Central Texas starts out the new year the same as the old year.....for real estate. In my area of 4200 homes we have EIGHT homes for sale. Four of them range from $1.425MILLION to $2.8MILLION. The other four range from a low of $650,000 to $898,000. There is not a lot out there for buyers to choose from as the inventory remains very low even for this time of the year. Out of state buyers are now the norm as are all cash offers. We helped out kids with their first and second homes. AND....in fact....one of my siblings continues to help them by being the family banker and holding the mortgages on their homes. It is very nice for them to not to have to deal with a mortgage lender in buying a home. One of my kids is on their third home and the other is on their forth home. Both live in extremely HOT and HIGH home price areas. In our family there is a multi generation tradition of the older generations helping the younger generations with home purchases.
Hey there people! Thanks for the invite. Looking forward to chatting about long term investing with ya’ll!
WELCOME.....Brownbrody. Let us know about your investing, what you do and how you do it. Your posts are very welcome on here.......same for anyone else. This is a.......relatively......NON-JUDGEMENTAL place.
I like this little article. Three Monster Years for the S&P 500 Set a Towering Bar for January https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ars-in-s-p-500-set-a-towering-bar-for-january "To all the record highs, the months without a correction and every other death-defying feat the stock market has pulled off, add another superlative. The S&P 500 Index has now doubled since New Year’s 2018, capping a stretch of sustained strength with few precedents. Using monthly closes, you have to go back decades to find another period when the index’s three-year total return exceeded 100%. Two decades, to be exact, to the bursting of the internet bubble. And while nothing in that comparison is basis for panic in any rigorous statistical sense, it at least shows the dauntlessness of the current rally and the challenge investors face in deciding if it’s sustainable. To wonder is normal. Doubts creep in when superlatives pile up. A third straight year of double-digit returns for the S&P 500. Seventy record highs in 2021 alone. The best December since 2010, pushing the index to 26 times earnings. In the past five sessions, the gauge added 0.9%, another up week in a year when positive closes made up 63% of the total. “December’s gain could be January’s pain,” said Mike Bailey, director of research at FBB Capital Partners. “If investors are topping off their winners in December, that might dilute the January effect,” he said. Pressures early on in 2022 may include more hawkish commentary from the Federal Reserve, inflation-constricted fourth-quarter earnings reports, and valuations that are near five-year peaks. History shows that may be the case. Following an annual return of greater than 20%, the S&P 500 tends to start out the year tepidly. That’s the case for data going back to 1980, with Januaries that follow blockbuster years coming in flat on average. And that performance is worse than the average January return of 1.2% over the last eight decades, according to Jessica Rabe, co-founder of DataTrek Research. “There can be sizable drawdowns in the first month of a new year after an outsized gain,” she wrote in a note. “Investors shouldn’t expect this year’s positive momentum to carry through next month.” With this week’s rally, the S&P 500’s three-year total return crossed 100% for the first time since March 2000, according to Bespoke Investment Group. By almost any measure, 2021 was a giant year for stocks. All S&P 500 Index sectors posted double-digit gains for the first time, with eight of them rising 20% or more, according to data compiled by Bloomberg since the GICS classification system was implemented in 1999. The best-performing group, energy, rose 48% in 2021, after being the worst performer in 2020. For all its twists, though, it was an appreciably less polarized year for equities than the previous one. Amid the first Covid-19 wave, seven stocks in the S&P 500 tripled in 2020, compared with zero this year, while 15 fell by more than 40%, a fate that all avoided this time. Tesla Inc.’s 743% gain ranked first in the benchmark in 2020, while Devon Energy Corp.’s comparatively modest 179% surge was the top this year. “A lot of people think we might give some of this back as we enter the new year. That could happen,” Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold Group, said on Bloomberg TV and Radio. He expects 2022 to be volatile overall, and says returns won’t be as robust as they were this year. Chief among investor concerns in the new year is the Fed, which recently announced it would speed up its withdrawal of economic stimulus. Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, looked at the central bank’s holdings of securities, which have gone up by roughly $130 billion this month through Christmas. That’s not exactly a taper, he says, so when their purchase pace does start to slow more significantly, markets could react negatively. “As the taper kicks in, we are more likely to get some corrections since the inflows of money into the system will be reduced,” Sosnick said. “That’s why I’m expecting increased volatility.” Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions, agrees that tighter monetary policy is going to keep investors “a little bit more apprehensive.” “It’s probably going to be a little bit tempered because people are not thinking, ‘Hey, I’m piling in, back up the truck, let’s buy everything under the sun’ sort of thing,” he said by phone. “So it’s that starting point from an investor psyche also, I think, that puts up a little bit of a ceiling to having a 25% to 30% run in stocks.” But as anyone paying attention to markets knows, heeding bear cases, no matter how sensible-sounding, has been a costly mistake for a long time. Tightening lockdowns, rising bond yields, fattening valuations -- each has sounded worrisome, none has stuck. Saying markets may be volatile in January due to how fast they’ve recently risen is another view that could easily crash and burn -- though its simplicity has an appeal to certain Wall Street pros. “Earnings are going to keep growing and the bond yield is not going to keep flying up, and that means you’re sort of forced into buying the S&P 500,” said Michael Purves, chief executive and founder of Tallbacken Capital Advisors. “And that’s what happened this year in 2021 -- every dip was bought.” There are plenty of tail winds for next year. Janasiewicz, for instance, says a largely positive earnings season can help keep stocks aloft when earnings reports start to roll in -- and analysts have already been ramping up forecasts for the upcoming season. Leuthold’s Paulsen says the S&P 500 could cross above 5,000 in the first half of the year “on excitement that finally we may be moving Covid from a pandemic to an epidemic,” he said, adding “and on the realization that inflation is moderating.”" MY COMMENT This is EXACTLY why I stay fully invested all the time. No one really knows when or why anything will happen over the short term. We will find out at the end of the year next December how the year turned out and why. Till than I will simply stay invested in my usual stocks and funds.......unless someone wants to give me a crystal ball that actually works. We......and business....know what the road blocks will be this year....inflation fears.....supply chain.....the FED......and government actions. Those are a given as we start the year. What I believe will be THE determining factor this year will be FUNDAMENTALS. In other words.....EARNINGS. I believe this is going to be a heavily EARNINGS driven year for stocks an funds. My view is that the forth quarter will come in nicely since it is being underestimated. After that....I think the first and second quarter will also be relatively positive. After that....who knows. So.....I will focus on my ten stock holdings......which.....as some of the MOST ICONIC companies in the world.........give me the best potential shot at good earnings and good fundamentals. I will be very interested to see how AMAZON does this year. Will they boom again when they are done plowing money into their business and employees? Or have they reached a saturation point as a MATURE company with new management? We will find out over the next one to two years where they really are as a business. One thing is SURE....they need to split their stock. The price per share is creating HUGE resistance among potential buyers.
