The Long Term Investor

The two posts above are exactly the attitude you have to have. It is not difficult to do......unless.....you bet the farm on some crazy investment.....or.....bet short term money on stocks.

I have gotten to the point after many years that.......when worse it gets the LESS I care. I already consider this little drop IRRATIONAL.....so I just watch with BEMUSEMENT.

It is interesting to watch the media ramp up this talk of......WAR. What a joke....nothing is going to happen....regardless of what Russia does or does not do.

 

rg7803

The American media has been playing up talk of WAR with Russia if they move into Ukraine. Simply opinion and talk on the part of media IDIOTS. BUT...it riles up the markets.

Obviously the reality is that even if Russia goes into Ukraine....NOTHING........will happen except for some mild sanctions that will not matter in the slightest.

 

He is going to meet Putin behind the gym to see who can do the most pushups.

 

Today was INSANELY STUPID.......in the markets. I will take it and I was UP very nicely.....a medium green day for me. And....a good beat on the SP500 by 0.56%.

I cant believe that the market action today was caused by normal, retail investors. There had to be some really,.....out there....trading going on.

 

I did not pay any attention to the markets at all today.........apparently this is what happened.

Stocks end higher after dramatic selloff

https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/24/investing/dow-stock-market-today/index.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"New York (CNN Business) On a wild day on Wall Street, stocks ended the day higher with a stunning turnaround just before the closing bell. Stocks began the day with a dramatic selloff.

US stocks opened in the red as investors worried about the Federal Reserve's plans to hike interest rates, tensions in Ukraine, earnings season and — of course — inflation.

At the low point of the session, the market was on track for its worst day since October 2020, with the Dow down more than 1,000 points.

But with just minutes to go in the trading session, the major indexes reversed course and turned green. The Dow finished 0.3%, or 99 points, higher.

What on earth happened to turn things around? The selloff may have just gone a bit too far.

"Investors may have gotten a bit too pessimistic about the growth outlook," said Oanda senior market analyst Edward Moya in the late afternoon.

The S&P 500 (SPX), the broadest measure of the US equities market, also ended up 0.3%. During the session, the index had been on track to fall into correction. But it wasn't meant to be, at least not on Monday: Last week, it logged its worst week since March 2020.

The Nasdaq Composite (COMP), which entered correction territory last week, closed up 0.6%.
The wild swings of the day were also visible in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), or Vix, which soared during the day but ended the session "only" 3.2% higher.

CNN's Fear & Greed Index still flashed fear Monday afternoon, but the level was slightly less severe than on Friday.
Each day last week, stocks fared worse in the final hour of trading, which tends to be a bad sign for the next day, said TD Ameritrade chief market strategist JJ Kinahan.

"After a tough start for stocks in 2022, investors are looking for reasons to expect a rebound," said Jeff Buchbinder, equity strategist for LPL Financial, in emailed comments.

"After more than doubling off the pandemic lows in March 2020, without anything more than a 5% pullback in 2021, stocks probably needed a break," he added. "That doesn't, however, make this dip feel much more comfortable."

A lot to digest

Investors also have a lot on their plate this week.

Earnings season has moved on to Big Tech, including Microsoft (MSFT), IBM (IBM), Intel (INTC) and Apple (AAPL), which report results this week.

Then there's the Fed meeting, concluding with Wednesday's policy statement and subsequent press conference. As of Monday morning, market expectations for this week are that the central bank will keep interest rates near zero for a little longer, according to the CME FedWatch tool. But for the next meeting, which isn't until March, expectations of a quarter-percentage-point rate hike were near 90% Monday afternoon.

Expectations are only part of the game. The Fed could also conclude that inflation has run too hot at the end of 2021 and crank up rates more — or sooner.

Treasury yields, which track interest rate expectations, were off last week's highs Monday but inched higher in the late afternoon. The 10-year bond yielded 1.76% around the time of the close after climbing past 1.8% for the first time since before the pandemic last week.

While the Fed is trying to get inflation down by normalizing its pandemic-era policies, the US economy is grappling with the fallout from the Omicron variant. America's private sector output growth slowed in January as the highly infectious variant put more pressure on the already-battered supply chain and existing labor shortage, according to the IHS Markit flash composite purchasing managers' index.

Making matters worse, investors are anxiously watching the situation in Ukraine as fears mount that the country could be invaded by Russia.

The news that the United States and United Kingdom are withdrawing some staff from the local embassies isn't exactly breeding confidence the situation will resolve quickly and European stock markets are sharply lower as well.

Commodities markets are feeling the pressure of the rising tensions and analysts believe oil prices could soar if the situation escalated. On Monday afternoon, however, US oil prices settled down 2.1% at $83.31 per barrel."

MY COMMENT

This was a totally aberrant day in the markets. NOT....normal by any means. There had to be something going on with short term trading for the wild swings today.

I think that today may have put out some of the fire of the DIP. Things went too far.....too fast. If we get OK earnings from the BIG CAP names this week....we might nave a chance for a positive week.

 

Perhaps what we saw today at the close was some....."under the table"......preview of the IBM earnings before the close.

IBM marks strong start to new chapter as cloud revenue booms

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ibm-beats-revenue-expectations-cloud-211400829.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"(Reuters) -IBM on Monday beat Wall Street estimates for revenue in the fourth quarter, as its focus on the cloud paid off in Big Blue's first earnings after exiting the slow-growing managed infrastructure business.

Shares of the IT giant jumped as much as 7% aftermarket before easing to trade flat, with the company reiterating its forecast for mid-single-digit revenue growth in 2022, compared with 3.9% last year.

"This will be the first quarter where you'll see what today's IBM looks like, and that is a higher revenue growth company," Chief Financial Officer James Kavanaugh told Reuters in an interview.

The 110-year-old company has doubled down on the software and consulting businesses after shedding its former managed infrastructure unit in November following years of growth and margin pressures.

Revenue at IBM's consulting business rose 13.1%, while cloud revenue jumped 16% to $6.2 billion in the quarter.

With cloud adoption surging worldwide, the company has shifted its focus to the so-called "hybrid-cloud", where enterprises use a combination of their own data centers and leased computing resources to store and process data.

U.S. revenue rose in the mid-single digits during the quarter even as the Omicron variant raged across the country, Kavanaugh said, adding that industries hit hard early by the pandemic were bouncing back.

IBM's revenue rose 6.5% to $16.7 billion, adjusted for the separation of the managed infrastructure services business, now Kyndryl. Analysts on average had expected $15.96 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.

"IBM hasn't had this kind of result and with the spin-off, a lot of this sentiment was that it was going to take a few quarters for this to flush out," Futurum Research analyst Daniel Newman said.

Excluding items, IBM earned $3.35 per share, beating estimates of $3.30."

MY COMMENT

Of course....it would be illegal to get advance notice of these IBM earnings. BUT......I dont see anything else that would account for the SURGE in prices at the close today. Knowing these earnings a little bit ahead of time on a MASSIVELY down day....and extrapolating these results to the rest of the BIG TECH companies that report this week......would be one "possible" explanation for the markets today. Probably speculative....but about as good an explanation as anything else.

REGARDLESS....I see these numbers as a very good.....OMEN....for the other BIG TECH companies that report this week.

 

Here is a small portion of a general market today article.

Stock market news live updates: Stocks claw back losses to close out volatile day: Nasdaq ends 0.6% higher after shedding 4.9% at session lows

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-january-24-2022-124233799.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"11:37 a.m. ET: Many tech executives 'feel very bullish on the prospects of their companies' despite stock volatility: Union Square Advisors president

Though the latest stretch of market volatility has hit technology shares especially hard, many tech executives are still feeling upbeat about the longer-term prospects of their companies, according to at least one pundit.

"In the public markets, with all the volatility, that creates day-to-day challenges, although we think that's going to settle out here as we get through sort of the next wave of Fed decisions and this round of earnings," Union Square Advisors co-founder and president Ted Smith told Yahoo Finance Live on Monday.

"Most tech executives with whom we speak feel very bullish on the prospects of their companies, feel very good about how they came out of the challenges of the pandemic and the resilience that those companies showed over the course of the last year and a half, two years," he added. "And so most of them are feeling quite good about the medium and long term prospects for their individual companies but acknowledge that the near term at least stock market challenges, to the extent that those have an impact on their companies, make for a bit of a bumpy ride.""

MY COMMENT

I would think so.....and....I expect earnings to be very nice. The question is whether or not the markets care. It is basically a.....pay me now or pay me later........situation for shareholders.

 

If you are looking for a little.....silver lining.....this might be it.

U.S. Stocks Historically Deliver Strong Gains in Fed Hike Cycles

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-stocks-historically-deliver-strong-140000367.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"

U.S. Stocks Historically Deliver Strong Gains in Fed Hike Cycles"
"(Bloomberg) -- As the Nasdaq 100 comes off its worst week since the pandemic selloff in March 2020, investors now have to contend with Wednesday’s Fed meeting, where officials are expected to signal that they’ll raise interest rates in March and shrink their balance sheet soon after.

Here’s a look at how the U.S. stock market has fared historically when the Fed begins tightening rates.

Historical Strength

History indicates that 2022 is likely to end on a better foot than it started. U.S. stocks have historically performed well during periods when the Fed raised rates, as a growing economy tends to support corporate profit growth and the stock market. In fact, stocks have risen at an average annualized rate of 9% during the 12 Fed rate hike cycles since the 1950s and delivered positive returns in 11 of those instances, according to Keith Lerner, Truist’s co-chief investment officer. The one exception was during the 1972-1974 period, which coincided with the 1973-1975 recession.

Analysts don’t think lingering concerns about tighter monetary policy or the spread of Covid-19 will prevent the broader market from notching another positive year. On average, strategists project that the S&P 500 will finish 2022 at 4,982, 13% above Friday’s closing level, according to data complied by Bloomberg. The index surged nearly 27% in 2021 -- its third straight year of double-digit returns.

Historically, it has been beneficial for investors to maintain a cyclical bias leading up to the first rate increase, but the performance in the three months following that has struggled, according to Strategas Securities. There have been four distinct periods of rate-hike cycles by the Fed in the past three decades. The S&P 500 Materials Index, for instance, averaged a gain of 9.3% three months before the first rate hike in those four cycles, but then slipped by 2% three months after.

Although S&P 500 performance is often strong during a cycle of rate hikes, the unusually mild pullbacks experienced by the benchmark in 2021 could leave to bigger retreats this year.

Instead of the mild pullbacks of 5% or less that prevailed in 2021, history shows the potential for bigger retreats that sometimes ranged into double digits, according to Truist. Following the ten years with the shallowest pullbacks going back to 1955, stocks tended to rise the next year but were more volatile. The S&P 500’s deepest intra-year pullback averaged 13% while posting an average total return of 7%, Truist data show.

Another factor that could hit stocks this year is the U.S. midterm election in November. Market returns tend to be muted until later in the year, as there is less certainty of the outcome and the subsequent effects on policy changes.

Since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged an intra-year pullback of 17.1% in midterm years, according to LPL Financial. But the final three months of a midterm year and the first two quarters of the following year, known as the pre-election year, have been some of the strongest quarters for stocks over the four-year U.S. presidential cycle. In pre-election years going back to 1950, the benchmark index has notched an average return of 32.3%."

MY COMMENT

I have seen many times of rate hikes when the markets were NOT impacted. I expect it will the the same this time. Investors are going to react for perhaps a week or two after each hike and than simply move on and not care. Even four or five rate hikes.....will still leave us well under the historic norms for the Ten Year Yield.

As to the election......the worse it looks for the DEMOCRATS.....the better for investors. A split government means NOTHING will happen for the next couple of years. That will be good news for stock investors and the markets. We are now ONLY 9 months till the election. We are entering the time period where nothing much will happen. No politician wants to make some big move heading into an election. There is perhaps ONLY another month or two till the election is too close for much to happen this year.

 

It is OBVIOUS that the recent market action is NOT normal buyers and sellers action. I believe a big part of what we saw yesterday is AI and PROGRAM TRADING. YES.....it is legal....but at what point does it simply become market manipulation? I think we are already.....obviously....there. This sort of trading is creating the markets not trading off the markets. When you have MASSIVE computer program trading happening from all the big institutions at the same time and using the same sort of technology.....you have the ability to manipulate the markets. These programs are CREATING the market conditions and imbalances....that they are than trading.

As long term investor that is fully invested all the time I avoid much of the impact. BUT....sooner or later they WILL....break the markets. People will lose confidence. OR.......they will create conditions that they can not control and are not anticipated and they will trigger a market annihilation. They did this back in 1987 with their little "Portfolio Insurance" programs. Of course what they were doing back then was nothing like the SCALE of what they are doing now.

 

I like the message in this little article.

Correction or Pullback, January’s Swings Call for Calm
Markets flirted with technical correction territory on Monday. But whatever you call this sentiment-driven move, we think the course of action for investors is the same.

https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...ion-or-pullback-januarys-swings-call-for-calm

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"If you had better things to do Monday than watch the stock market’s every tick—and we hope you did—you might think the day’s 0.3% rise signaled a pretty uneventful day. Boring, even. But that isn’t the full story. The S&P 500 began the day with a steep slide, hitting -4.0% at around 9:30AM Pacific time, as a cacophony of headlines shrieked about thousand-point Dow drops and the S&P 500 entering a correction.[ii] (A correction is a short, sharp, sentiment-driven drop of -10% to -20%; at the low today, the S&P 500 price index was -12.0% from January 3’s record high.[iii]) Stocks then spent the rest of the day rallying, undercutting those headlines and forcing market reporters to change their tune. Now, no one knows whether this reversal will mark the end of the year’s early, sharp pullback. Maybe it does. Maybe stocks reach correction territory in the days ahead. Regardless, we think investors’ best course of action is the same: Stay calm and exercise patience.

Magnitude aside, the downdraft to start 2022 looks a lot like a correction—and not much like a bear market. The lockdown-induced, warp-speed 2020 version aside, bear markets usually begin gradually—with long rolling tops early. As the old adage goes, bear markets typically “start with a whimper, not a bang.” They usually begin amid euphoria, with investors generally poking fun at bearish theories. And they are driven by fundamental negatives—real doozies investors either don’t see or dismiss as phony, teeing up major downside surprise when reality dawns on them.

Corrections are different. They normally begin with a bang, for any or even no reason, with stocks falling steeply from a prior high and plunging fast. Typically, they have some big fear or scare story associated with them many presume is driving the negativity. After a swift fall that has most expecting worse to come, stocks turn around and snap back higher—usually about as fast as they fell—with no warning.

Most analysts use closing prices to size up market moves. On this basis, this bull market—which dates to March 23, 2020—still hasn’t seen a correction. The biggest decline so far was September 2020’s -9.6% pullback.[iv] But regardless, January 2022’s move—magnitude aside—has many of the features we would expect of a correction. The last record high was on January 3, with a steep slide since—the “bang” typical of corrections. Sentiment when it started wasn’t euphoric, as many investors fixated on an array of worries. And it seems to have twin stories many allege are “driving” the drop—Russia/Ukraine tensions and rising interest rates.

In our view, time and patience should prove both false. Obviously, if Russia invades Ukraine, that isn’t good news. But markets have seen many regional conflicts over the years, and they don’t normally trigger bear markets. We showed you a selection of these in November when Russian sabre-rattling started perking up. Sadly, regional conflict—like Russia seizing Ukrainian territory in 2014—is commonplace. It is a human tragedy, of course. And fear over the impact can stoke short-term volatility, normally before any actual conflict, as markets pre-price war worries. But market cycles usually aren’t impacted by conflict unless it has the scope to greatly disrupt global commerce. Should conflict between Russia and Ukraine erupt, we don’t think it would have anything approaching that power.

As for rising interest rates, they have commanded investors’ attention this year, and fears over their impact have likely contributed to the regression in markets this January. That said, a longer-term look at fundamentals shows the notion rising interest rates are terrible for stocks is bogus. Over the past 20 years, the weekly correlation between the S&P 500 and US 10-year Treasury yields is 0.33.[v] Identical movement is 1.00 and -1.00 means exact opposite, so that positive number means stocks and bond yields move together somewhat more often than not. You read that right. Rise and fall together more often than not. It isn’t a strong correlation, which means periods where they diverge aren’t hugely unusual. But this is a solid reason to question common theories of rising yields killing stocks. Tech? The correlation with yield moves is positive, too.

As for Fed rate hikes, stocks normally rise following the start of tightening cycles, too. Heck, there were two separate tightening cycles in the 1990s bull market. One in 2002 – 2007’s cycle and one in 2009 – 2020’s cycle. The first hike in each came long before stocks peaked.

We strongly doubt interest rates have a lasting impact on stocks—if they even keep rising. Given the near-universal view rising rates and inflation threaten this bull market, markets have likely pre-priced these opinions and seem set to surprise by proving them incorrect.

Corrections are an example of the fact markets can be irrational in the short term. But in the longer term, rationality—and fundamentals—normally win out. Today, data like purchasing managers’ indexes and The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index suggest continued economic growth ahead, which should support firms’ earnings. We have US midterm elections this year, which—if history holds—should deepen gridlock and kick off the most bullish stretch of the US political cycle. Sentiment was sour entering 2022 based on Omicron, geopolitical tensions and all the false fears about the Fed. That suggests to us positive surprise is likely as this year progresses—fuel for this bull market to persist.

We don’t know exactly when the recent bout of negativity will end. Maybe it already has. But it looks to us very much like a passing, sentiment-driven event. In our view, that calls for investors to take a longer view and refocus on fundamentals."

MY COMMENT

A perfect message above for the average investor. NO....there is not going to be a war or anything close. Even if there are sanctions....they will be mild and toothless....in spite of all the tough talk and media fear mongering.

As to rate hikes.....everyone in the world is aware they are coming and has taken them into account. They have NO power to move the markets other than by psychology and......once again....fear mongering.

 

The IRS.....one big screwed up mess. I got a notice yesterday that I did not file for 2020. Yet the notice shows that my account has a big credit. From my reading......I know that the IRS knows that they are sending out millions such notices when the returns are siting in the 8MILLION paper return backlog that has not been processed yet.

On the Eve of Filing Season, the IRS Is Worse Than Ever

https://www.realclearmarkets.com/ar...season_the_ira_is_worse_than_ever_813253.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"With a new year comes new opportunities — including the opportunity to once again fork over your money to the IRS. While that’s never a pleasant experience, for taxpayers who need to take advantage of the rumored “Service” aspect of “Internal Revenue Service,” it could be even more unpleasant than usual.

Even before the filing season begins on January 24, the IRS is already behind. That’s because as of the end of 2021, the IRS still has not processed six million returns from tax year 2020. It still has 2.3 million amended returns to get through (which are taking upwards of 20 weeks to resolve), and victims of identity theft are waiting an average of 260 days for resolution.

The IRS’s sluggishness is in part due to the pandemic, but last year brought with it unique challenges as well. For the 2019 tax year, the IRS sent 700,000 notices claiming a math error on the part of the taxpayer, allowing them to accept the IRS’s “correction” or contact the IRS to resolve the issue. Last year, that number was up to 13 million. Taxpayers attempting to call to dispute the “correction” had their call answered between 9 and 19 percent of the time.

Making all this delay even more obnoxious is how rigidly the IRS expects taxpayers to adhere to deadlines. The IRS is currently embroiled in a legal battle over its claim that a taxpayer forfeited his rights to challenge a penalty assessment by filing a Tax Court petition one day late. Just imagine how prompt the IRS would be if it had to pay back any taxes received from returns that weren’t processed in time.

Another time bomb set to go off is eligibility for advance tax credit payments. The American Rescue Plan Act, passed back in March of last year, expanded the Child Tax Credit and automatically enrolled taxpayers who were eligible for the credit based on previous years’ tax information in a program of advance payments.

However, taxpayers’ eligibility for the credit can change from year to year for a number of reasons, and many taxpayers likely received this credit in error — and, consequently, will be expected to pay back any wrongly disbursed funds when they file their taxes this year. Taxpayers could opt out of advance payments, but doing so required a lengthy process of identity verification, requiring the disclosure of personal information to a private company that the IRS has contracted with.

This is the state of the IRS as it has attempted to pressure Congress to give it funding to take on entirely new responsibilities and tasks. As former Taxpayer Advocate Nina Olson points out, the Build Back Better (BBB) Act would do very little to resolve these issues, with most funding the IRS would receive going to new means of enforcement.

A major sticking point over BBB funding has been the proposal to require financial institutions to report gross inflows and outflows from many accounts. The proposed threshold has shifted over time, but many millions of Americans would have their account information turned over to the IRS under each proposal. What’s more, the IRS could easily use any data on gross inflows and outflows it deems “suspicious” to demand more detailed information from taxpayers.


In short, taxpayers would be left with an IRS that has new ways to claim that taxpayers aren’t paying enough, and basically the same dearth of resources by which to file taxes correctly and resolve disputes. Taxpayers need to remind Congress that the IRS’s mission is twofold, and that taxpayer service cannot be an afterthought."

MY COMMENT

What a horribly screwed up agency. I think they have reached a TIPPING POINT.....and they will NEVER be able to recover.

SO....yes.....I will send in another copy of my 2020 return and documentation along with the information showing that they got my return and cashed my check. Those materials....the return and correspondence will disappear into the ever-growing 8 MILLION unprocessed returns and the 5 MILLION unopened and unanswered pieces of correspondence.....as usual.

 

Here is the media take on what the markets are doing today.

Stock market news live updates: Stocks plunge as investors await Fed policy-setting meeting

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-january-25-2022-233305025.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"U.S. stocks extended their losses at the start of trading on Tuesday as investors await the Federal Reserve's policy-setting meeting amid worries over fast-approaching rate hikes and a lackluster start to earnings season. The International Monetary Fund's downgrade on its economic forecasts due to uncertainty around Omicron and inflation also weighed on markets.

All three major indexes shed 2% or more at open, continuing a weekslong losing streak for equities. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 680 points, or 1.98%, while the S&P 500 dipped 2.36%. The Nasdaq Composite declined 2.63% to start the day.

The downward momentum in stocks has been fueled by escalating worries around monetary policy as the Federal Reserve looks to intervene on rising inflation levels more aggressively than previously anticipated with tighter policy and rate hikes. Investors are bracing for the central bank’s January monetary policy meeting, set to begin today, followed by a new monetary statement and press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday. Although the Fed signaled it would raise interest rates multiple times this year, an increase is not expected this week.

“The Fed is in a very tough spot,” MJP Wealth Advisors President Brian Vendig told Yahoo Finance Live. “They know history has shown that if they move too quickly on interest rates, it adds to the risk of moving the economy into a slowdown and the risk of a recession.”

The CBOE volatility index, or VIX, closed Monday at about 29.90 after crossing above 37 in intraday trading, its highest level since November 2020. In their newsletter, Nicholas Colas and Jessica Rabe of DataTrek Research sounded the alarm on recent jumps by the so-called “fear gauge.” The VIX closed last week’s trading at 29 to pass the initial 28 level DataTrek deemed significant, or “the first statistically valid level of market panic.” In Monday’s session, the VIX hovered around 38 before retreating, briefly passing the next level the firm said to watch for: 36.

“If you are trading this market, we continue to advise caution,” the DataTrek founders said. “Clarity on Fed policy will not come until Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, and even then, commentary from the Fed and Chair Powell may be insufficient to calm investors.”

With corporate earnings underway, stock watchers looking to fourth-quarter reports for relief from inflation jitters have found little reason for optimism so far. Goldman Sachs chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin pointed out that of 64 S&P 500 companies that have reported results since the season began, a slightly below average 52% have beaten analyst consensus earnings estimates.

More concerning, according to Goldman, is a lack of guidance from companies amid unpredictable inflation and COVID-related conditions.

“Investors are most interested in forward-looking guidance from management, and recent information on that front has been concerning,” Kostin said. “Five of the six S&P 500 firms that provided formal 1Q 2022 guidance following 4Q results lowered expectations.”

LPL Financial equity strategist Jeff Buchbinder had a more upbeat take: pointing out that despite supply chain disruptions, wage and other cost pressures, and the Omicron COVID-19 variant, with the S&P 500 constituents that reported so far, index earnings are still tracking to 5% upside, in line with the long-term historical average.

“The volatility we’ve seen this year is uncomfortable, but it is well within the range of normal based on history,” Buchbinder wrote in a note.

“The S&P 500 has averaged three pullbacks of 5% or more per year and one correction of at least 10% per year over its long history,” he said. "After just one 5% dip last year, and huge gains off the 2020 lows, we were due for a dip."

9:55 a.m. ET: IMF cuts world growth forecast, citing Omicron's impact

The International Monetary Fund lowered its economic forecasts for the United States, China and the global economy, indicated uncertainty about the pandemic, inflation, supply disruptions and U.S. monetary tightening have placed a dent in the agency's outlook.

"We project global growth this year at 4.4%, 0.5 percentage point lower than previously forecast, mainly because of downgrades for the United States and China," Gita Gopinath, the IMF's No. 2 official, wrote in a blog on the latest update of the World Economic Outlook.

9:07 a.m. ET: US home price growth slows for fourth straight month

Home price growth in the U.S. continued to moderate in the penultimate month of 2021.

Standard & Poor’s reported that its S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index posted a 18.8% annual gain in November, down from 19% from October. The 20-City Composite posted a 18.3% annual gain, down from 18.5% a month earlier. The 20-City results came in marginally higher than analysts’ expectations of an 18% annual gain, according to Bloomberg consensus estimates.

“Despite this deceleration, it’s important to remember that November’s 18.8% gain was the sixth-highest reading in the 34 years covered by our data (the top five were the months immediately preceding November)," said Craig J. Lazzara, managing director and global head of index investment strategy at S&P DJI, in a statement."

MY COMMENT

this little article shows where the media is right now.....they are all about the FED. Hardly any mention of the big earnings this week......and.....hardly any mention of the FAKE WAR that is being fear mongered.

YES......the short term markets are....INHERENTLY INSANE. Just ignore it all....and move on by doing nothing.

 

HERE is the little economic data today.....that no one will care about.

U.S. consumer confidence dips in January; spending intentions strong

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-consumer-confidence-dips-january-152435183.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"U.S. consumer confidence ebbed slightly in January, with more consumers planning to purchase homes, automobiles and other big ticket items even as they grew less optimistic about business and labor market conditions in the near term.

The Conference Board said on Tuesday its consumer confidence index slipped to a reading of 113.8 this month from a slightly downwardly revised 115.2 in December. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index declining to 111.8 from the previously reported reading of 115.8 in December.

"The Present Situation Index improved, suggesting the economy entered the new year on solid footing," said Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at The Conference Board in Washington. "However, expectations about short-term growth prospects weakened, pointing to a likely moderation in growth during the first quarter of 2022."

Franco also noted that the proportion of consumers planning to purchase homes, automobiles, and major appliances over the next six months all increased. The dip in confidence likely reflects rising COVID-19 infections.

The United States is reporting an average of 696,541 new coronavirus infections a day, according to a Reuters analysis of official data. The winter wave of infections, driven by the Omicron variant, appears to subsiding in some regions, including the hardest hit New York."

MY COMMENT

I post this since it is data....BUT....I would never rely on this little index for anything. It is simply a BEAUTY PAGEANT poll. It reflects a snapshot in time....but nothing more.

I do like the fact....if it is actually fact....that people are STILL planing to make big purchases. This shows that on an individual level the economy is much stronger than what people say in general.