The Long Term Investor

Next week......BIG CAP earnings reports......and....no FED meeting to screw things up.

Amazon, Facebook, and Alphabet earnings, jobs report: What to know this week

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amaz...-report-what-to-know-this-week-174806259.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what i consider important content)

"The wild ride in markets is likely to power on this week, with investors in store for a slew of big earnings and fresh reads on key unemployment data out of Washington, including the ever-important monthly jobs report.

Monday kicks off a pivotal week in the earnings season, with more than 100 companies in the S&P 500 set to report fourth quarter results through Friday. Most notably, investors will tune in to presentations from Amazon (AMZN), Facebook now Meta Platforms (FB), and Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), three of the five corporate heavyweights that account for about one-quarter of the benchmark’s total market capitalization.

Amazon is scheduled to report figures for the last three months of 2021 after the bell on Thursday. Analysts expect adjusted earnings per share of $3.89 on revenue of $137.87 billion. With the stock down 15.5% year-to-date as of Friday’s close, a look at fourth quarter performance could be a make-or-break moment for the e-commerce giant as markets reassess tech valuations.

Facebook, known now by its rebrand to Meta Platforms, has also been under pressure in recent weeks amid the broader sell-off in technology stocks. Investors are likely to get more details about the company’s progress on its Oculus virtual reality headset when it reports on Tuesday, which stock watchers expect could give the social media platform a needed boost. Facebook is projected to report earnings of $3.83 per share, on revenue of $33.44 billion, according to Bloomberg consensus estimates.

Results from Alphabet, due out Tuesday, are expected to show adjusted earnings per share of $27.45 on revenue of $59.38 billion. Also bearing the brunt of the tech rout, shares of Alphabet are down 8% year-to-date. Stock watchers will tune in for a gauge on the momentum of its cloud platform, a component that has contributed greatly to the company’s growth and could help the stock see a rebound.

On the economic front, employment data will be in the spotlight this week. The Department of Labor’s monthly jobs report due for release on Friday will offer an updated look at the strength of hiring and labor force participation — important measures of the U.S. economy, made even more consequential in recent weeks as the impact of the latest Omicron-driven wave begins to appear in the latest surveys. Economists expect private employers added 150,000 jobs in January, lower than the previous month. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged from December at 3.9%, according to Bloomberg consensus estimates.

Even as Omicron’s spread may be slowing, payrolls are likely to be a bit slower to respond to falling COVID-19 cases than the real-time activity data, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Economist Ian Shepherdson.

“The surge in COVID cases has created new headwinds for the economy even as tailwinds, including the federal government’s fiscal boosts, are waning,” Bankrate senior economic analyst Mark Hamrick said in a note.

“The detrimental combination of supply chain constraints and the shortage, or lack of availability, of workers amid the Omicron surge is weighing on the nation’s economic recovery,” adding that under the circumstances, “it is hard to make the case for a huge acceleration in hiring this month.”

End of a volatile month for equities

Federal Reserve anxiety has made for a volatile January for equities. The S&P 500 is poised to end the month down 7% and 8% off its all-time high as traders adjust to the reality of a more aggressive central bank and a quicker pace of interest rate hikes than initially anticipated.

Stocks whipsawed last week after remarks from Jerome Powell following the Fed’s two-day policy-setting meeting that strongly signaled a liftoff on interest rates to above their current near-zero levels was likely to come in March as policymakers look to tighten financial conditions amid a backdrop of surging inflation.

“Anytime the Fed is going from really easy to starting to tighten, there’s always uncertainty, but this has been a stomach-churning week,” Wells Fargo Investment Institute senior global equity strategist Scott Wren told Yahoo Finance Live, adding that every day has been a battle of the 200-day moving average in the S&P 500.

Powell, taking on his most hawkish tone yet, prompted even big Fed watchers to sharply ramp up and revise their calls on rate hikes: Bank of America unveiled one of the most aggressive predictions on the Street, outlining expectations for seven increases this year, while JPMorgan upwardly revised its outlook from four to five hikes. On Saturday, Goldman Sachs revised its interest rate hike expectation to five times from four this year.

Charles Schwab chief fixed income strategist Kathy Jones told Yahoo Finance Live, however, that it is “premature” to talk about much more than three until the Fed offers more clarity around how it will use its balance sheet to tighten policy.

“Some of the estimates are just well ahead of reality at this stage of the game,” she said.

As investors buckle up for swing after swing, TKer’s Sam Ro points out that “gut-wrenching sell-offs are normal:” the S&P 500 sees three sell-offs of 5% or greater in an average year, with the maximum average annual drawdown — or biggest intra-year sell-off — at 14%, making even the sharpest of gyrations in benchmarks in recent weeks “very much within the realm of average."

Economic calendar

• Monday: MNI Chicago PMI, January (61.8 expected, 63.1 prior, upwardly revised to 64.3); Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, January (8.5 expected, 8.1 prior)
  
  
• Tuesday: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, January final (55.0 expected, 55.0 prior); Construction Spending, month over month, December (0.6% expected, 0.4% during prior month); ISM New Orders, January (60.4% prior month, upwardly revised to 61.0%); ISM Manufacturing, January (57.5 expected, 58.7 during prior month, upwardly revised to 58.8); ISM Employment, January (54.2 prior month, downwardly revised to 53.9); ISM Prices Paid, January (67.0 expected, 68.2 prior month); JOLTS job openings, December (10.3 million prior month); WARDS Total Vehicle Sales, January (12.7 million expected, 12.44 million prior month)
  
  
• Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended Jan. 28 (-7.1% during prior week); ADP Employment Change, January (200,000 expected, 807,000 prior month)
  
  
• Thursday: Challenger Job Cuts, year over year, January (-75.3% prior); Unit Labor Costs, fourth quarter preliminary (1.0% expected, 9.6% during prior quarter); Nonfarm Productivity, fourth quarter preliminary (3.2% expected, -5.2% expected); Initial Jobless Claims, week ended Jan. 29 (250,000 expected, 260,000 during prior week); Continuing Claims, week ended Jan. 22 (1.6 million expected, 1.675 million during prior week); Markit US Services PMI, January final (50.9 expected, 50.9 prior month); Markit US Composite PMI, January final (50.8 expected, 50.8 prior month); ISM Services Index, January (59.0 expected, 62.0 prior); Durable Goods Orders, December final (-0.9% prior); Factory Orders Excluding Transportation, December (0.8% final) Durable Goods Excluding Transportation, December final (0.4% prior); Capital Goods Orders Nondefense Excluding Aircrafts, December final (0.0%); Capital Goods Shipments Nondefense Excluding Aircrafts, December final (1.3%)
  
  
• Friday: Revisions – Employment Report, Establishment Survey; Two-Month Payroll Net Revision, January (141,000 prior); Change in Private Payrolls, January (150,000 expected, 211,000 prior month); Change in Manufacturing Payrolls, January (20,000 expected, 27,000 prior month); Unemployment Rate, January (3.9% expected, 3.9% prior); Average Hourly Earnings, month over month, January (0.5% expected, 0.6% prior month); Average Hourly Earnings, year over year, January (5.2% expected, 4.7% prior month); Average Weekly Hours All Employees, January (34.7 expected, 34.7 prior month); Labor Force Participation Rate, January (61.9% expected, 61.9% prior month); Underemployment Rate, January (7.3% prior month)
  

Earnings calendar

• Monday: Otis WorldWide (OTIS) before market open, NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) after market close, Cirrus Logic (CRUS) at market close
  
  
• Tuesday: UPS (UPS) before market open, Sirius XM (SIRI) before market open, Alphabet (GOOG) after market close, General Motors (GM) at market close, Starbucks (SBUX) after market close, AMD (AMD) after market close, PayPal Holdings (PYPL) after market close, Match Group (MTCH) after market close and Electronic Arts (EA) after market close, Gilead (GILD) after market close
  
  
• Wednesday: AmerisourceBergen (ABC) before market open, AbbVie (ABBV) before market open, Humana (HUM), ThermoFisher Scientific (TMO), Marathon Petroleum (MPC) before market open, T-Mobile (TMUS) after market close, Qualcomm (QCOM) after market open, Meta Platforms (FB) after market close, Boston Scientific (BSX) after market close
  
  
• Thursday: Merck (MRK) before market open, Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) before market open, HoneyWell (HON) before market open, Estee Lauder (EL) before market open, Cardinal Health (CAH) before market open, Shell plc (RDS-b) before market open, Cigna (CI) before market open, Amazon (AMZN) before market open, Ford (F) before market open, Snap (SNAP) before market open, Pinterest (PINS) before market open, Activation Blizzard (ATVI) before market open, Skechers (SKX) before market open, GoPro (GPRO) before market open, Fortinet (FTNT) before market open, News Corp. (NWSA) before market open, Unity Software (U) before market open
  
  
• Friday: Wynn Resorts (WYNN), Bristol-Myers (BMY) before market open, Regeneron (REGN) before market open, Aon (AON) before market open, Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL), Eaton (ETN), CBOE Global Markets (CBOE)"
  

MY COMMENT

This will be a big week for earnings.....we are entering the GUTS of the period. AND.....a big bonus.....nothing happening from the FED this week. We might be able to have a normal week if they can all just keep their mouths shut for once.

I will have three more stocks report this week......GOOGLE, AMAZON, and HONEYWELL. I am looking for a continuation of the nice results that the BIG CAP monster stocks have been putting up so far. All of the doom and gloom over rate increases...the FED....inflation....supply chain.....is meaningless to the BIG CAP top companies.

 

A nice open to the day and the week. Markets are green and actually have a chance this week to make a move. I am seeing some good gains today.....so far.

 

YES......much of investing and for that matter.....daily life.....is psychology.

IF THE ECONOMY'S SO GREAT, WHY DO WE FEEL SO LOUSY?

https://theweek.com/talking-points/1009538/if-the-economys-so-great-why-do-we-feel-so-lousy

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Business is booming. At least, that's what GDP figures tell us. In data released on Thursday, the Commerce Department reported the economy grew by 5.7 percent in 2021. That's the highest rate since 1984, when profits and jobs roared back from the early '80s recession.

If the numbers are so good, though, why do we feel so lousy?

Just a few days before GDP data were released, economists reported consumer confidence fell in January. That's partly due to recent fluctuations in the stock market, which are themselves related to inflation and the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in response. Some commentators, including my colleague Ryan Cooper, also blame the Biden Administration's failure to adequately highlight economic bright spots. And there's clearly a partisan dimension to perceptions of the economy: A majority of self-identified Republican see inflation or product shortages as the biggest problems facing the country, while a majority of Democrats cite COVID as the main challenge.

But econometrics and survey data paint an incomplete picture of the situation. Even if it doesn't show up in the numbers, many Americans' experience of the economy over the last year and more has been defined by what sociologists call "precarity."

A term of art for the absence of psychological security, unpredictability, and vulnerability to technological change, the concept of precarity first caught on in Europe, where it designated the consequences of deregulating the labor market in the 1990s. But it's since been adopted more widely to describe a pervasive feature of modern life. Constant anxiety that your job will be outsourced or automated is one form of precarity. But so is fear that you'll get sick, that your children's school will close, or that goods you count on vanish from the shelves.

The concept is useful because it helps reorient the conversation away from material deprivation in the strict sense. You can suffer from precarity even if you're employed and possess the full range of consumer goods. Indeed, precarity is in some ways more intense among the downwardly mobile middle class than among the genuinely poor. It's less about needing things you simply can't afford than fearing conditions you count on today will become inaccessible tomorrow. Even though it's not necessarily an economic disaster, inflation is especially unsettling because it raises that prospect every time you fill your tank or buy groceries.

The causes of widespread precarity go back decades (for example, see the national security intellectual Edward Luttwak's prescient 1994 essay). Yet the pandemic has widened the gap between our expectations for stability and the reality of daily life. No matter what the numbers say, many of us feel that economic, political, and social phenomena which once seemed orderly and predictable have spun disastrously out of control. Until that changes, aggregate statistics like GDP growth won't matter very much. "

MY COMMENT

I agree in terms of society......AND.....investors. People are very insecure right now.

For investors.....your enemy is your BRAIN. On a logical level you know what to do.....it is very simple. Invest for the long term......avoid market timing......buy great Indexes or companies....reinvest all dividends.....etc, etc, etc. BUT.....the PRIMAL instincts of our brains just keep kicking in. Fear and panic......exuberance and excitement of trading.......over-confidence......under-confidence......doubt, doubt, doubt.

Hopefully.....as an investor ages and gets experience.......they learn to just ignore all the internal psychological leanings.....same as they ignore all the external stuff that goes on over the short term. In UNSETTLING times it is more difficult to ignore those gnawing little brain messages. Everything becomes negative.....there is some bogeyman lurking around every corner. BEWARE.......not the BOGEYMAN....but your own brain trying to sabotage your investing.

 

Here is something that is not mentioned much when discussing real estate and the HOT market.
Expert: Folks ‘pushed out of the housing market’ are driving rents higher

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-market-driving-rents-higher-154252617.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"The hot for-sale market in housing is helping to boost rental prices across the country, according to one expert, who also noted a combination of factors has come together to create a surge in rental demand.

“You've got a lot of folks that are maybe being pushed out of the housing market as housing prices have increased,” RentPath CEO Jon Ziglar recently said on Yahoo Finance Live (video above). Home prices continue to increase by double digits, though have recently moderated at a high level.

“Right now, vacancies are at an all-time low across rental properties, across the U.S.,” he said, “and rental prices for one-bedroom and two-bedroom homes have gone up on average across the U.S. between 16% and 21%."

That’s not the only reason driving rental prices, Ziglar noted. The supply of rental properties on the market is also lacking.

“Now there's a lot more coming online in the next year or so,” he said. “But I think that we're probably going to stabilize here for a while and we'll continue to see this.”

The pandemic has also generated more demand for different types of rental properties in various locations. For example, some renters may want their own space or bigger space now that they can work from home on a permanent or semi-permanent basis.

“Perhaps you used to be in a three-bedroom with two roommates and now you really want to have your own place because you're at home all the time and you want more privacy,” Ziglar said.

Additionally, remote work allows workers to sign in from almost anywhere, so being near an employer’s office is no longer a consideration for some renters. That’s behind some of the disparity in rent growth among locations.

“So you do see markets where rental properties or rental prices are up 40%, 50%, and a few markets where they're flat or down a little bit," Ziglar said. "A lot of the coastal towns have seen a lot of rise. So I think a lot of it has to do with location as well as amenities as people start to be able to work more freely, work from where they want to be.”

Similarly, renters are looking for flexibility because of their WFH freedom, which some property managers are working into their offerings.

“If I think I want to live in Denver for half the year and then I'm going to move to Miami or whatever, I'm not going to buy a home, right?” Ziglar said. “I'm going to want to rent. I'm going to want the flexibility to move as I want to move around the country.”"

MY COMMENT

Kind of a lightweight article. But.......I am sure rents are going up around the country. Good news for landlords? Perhaps....I am not in the rental market. People on here that own rentals.....is this a golden era of rental income? I am not sure....after being under the eviction moratorium and having the government basically become you partner in providing housing........who knows.

This does remind me of another BIG.....doom and gloom....media topic.......that did NOT happen. The MASSIVE explosion of evictions that were supposed to happen when the moratorium was removed. We were supposed to see a big societal disruption of people being kicked out. NO.....as usual.....it did not happen.

Number one rule of investing.......or at least top ten.......IGNORE the media fear mongering.

 

WELL....approaching mid morning we are still in the green in the general averages.

Stock market news live updates: Stocks mixed ahead of busy week of earnings, data

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-january-31-2022-124739343.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Stocks were mixed Monday as traders looked ahead to another packed week of corporate earnings results and economic data in the wake of the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy pivot.

The S&P 500 and Dow declined, while the Nasdaq gained just after the opening bell. Treasury yields edged slightly higher on the long end of the curve, with the benchmark 10-year yield edging back above 1.8%. U.S. crude oil prices built on recent gains after rising for a sixth straight week.

January marked a volatile month of trading for U.S. stocks, as investors in risk assets considered the implications of the Federal Reserve's signals to unleash more aggressive policies to help bring down soaring inflation. Goldman Sachs economists said over the weekend they now expect the Fed will raise rates by a quarter-point five times this year, versus the four hikes the firm saw previously. The prediction echoes the path seen by other major banks including Bank of America, which now sees seven rate hikes, and JPMorgan, which expects five.

Whether the Fed is able to raise interest rates and otherwise adjust its policies to bring down inflation without negatively impacting economic growth and corporate profits remains a key question, however.

"No central bank wants to kill the economy in order to bring inflation down," Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab chief fixed income strategist, told Yahoo Finance Live on Friday. Jones said she still expects three interest rate hikes this year, matching the Fed's signaling from December. "Right now, I think there is a risk that they move too far too fast and overestimate the strength of the economy and the run in inflation that we're seeing. I think that's probably a greater risk than they move too slowly and allow inflation to get even further ahead of them."

With prospects of higher interest rates and tighter financial conditions looming, stocks have traded choppily over the past month. This has especially been the case for technology companies valued heavily on expected future earnings, which would be pressured by higher rates. The Nasdaq Composite has shed 12% for the month-to-date through Friday's close as the index continues to languish in a correction, or drop of at least 10% from a recent record high. The S&P 500 has so far dropped 7% in January, which would mark its worst month since March 2020. The Dow has declined by 4.4%.

Fresh catalysts for the market and individual stocks are set to come this week with another packed slate of corporate earnings results due for release. Mega-cap technology companies including Alphabet (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN) and Meta Platforms (FB) are each set to report quarterly results, alongside other closely watched names including AMD (AMD), Snap (SNAP), Wynn Resorts (WYNN) and Merck (MRK). And these will also come during a busy week of new economic data, including the monthly jobs report from the Labor Department.

As of Friday, the expected earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 was at 24.3%, based on actual results from companies that had reported so far and projected results for those reporting later, according to FactSet. If this rate comes in as expected, it would mark the fourth consecutive quarter that S&P 500 earnings growth topped 20%.

9:41 a.m. ET: Citrix Systems to be bought by Elliott Investment Management, Vista Equity Partners for $13 billion
The software company Citrix Systems is set to be purchased by the investment firms Elliott Investment Management and Vista Equity Partners in a $16.5 billion leveraged buyout, the company announced Monday. This confirmed media reports over the past several weeks that such an agreement was under consideration.

Citrix shareholders are each set to receive $104.00 in cash per share as part of the deal. This total is 1.5% below the stock's closing price from Friday, however.

With the deal, Citrix will be combined with Tibco Software, another company within Vista Equity Partners' portfolio. This would result in a software firm serving 400,000 customers and 100 million users across 100 countries.

"The combined company will be positioned to provide complete, secure and optimized infrastructure for enterprise application and desktop delivery and data management to advance hybrid cloud IT strategies and meet the needs of the modern enterprise," Citrix Systems said in its press statement."

MY COMMENT

HERE is the....mostly unreported......information that I think is important in the above little daily article:

"As of Friday, the expected earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 was at 24.3%, based on actual results from companies that had reported so far and projected results for those reporting later, according to FactSet. If this rate comes in as expected, it would mark the fourth consecutive quarter that S&P 500 earnings growth topped 20%."

In other words if things continue as expected......we are in for another EXTREMELY good earnings season. We are doing just FINE. No one likes to say that. Everyone is focused on the negative news items over the past 6 months. Yet.....for FOUR quarters.......if not more....earnings reports have been VERY STRONG.

I choose to invest based on the POSITIVE. I am not going to be a REACTIONARY investor especially over short term information that will be irrelevant in a few months or more from now. Sometimes you have to look for it or dig for it.....but.....the good news is out there. It is just underreported.

 

That about sums up my investing strategy Emmett. My choice......any time.....is to do NOTHING different. I have seen what works for me and it STILL seems to work. So......I am not doing anything.

 

For football fans that are also investors........with the Super Bowl coming up......why not combine the two?

Super Bowl Indicator

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/superbowlindicator.asp

"What Is the Super Bowl Indicator?
The Super Bowl Indicator is a nonscientific stock market barometer. The premise of the Super Bowl Indicator is the theory that a Super Bowl win for a team from the National Football League’s American Football Conference (AFC) foretells a decline in the stock market (a bear market) in the upcoming year. Conversely, a win for a team from the National Football Conference (NFC), as well as teams from the original National Football League (NFL)—before the merger of the NFL and the American Football League (AFL) in 1966—means that the stock market will rise in the coming year (a bull market)."

(See full article for more info.)

MY COMMENT

The article goes into much more detail on this.....MYTH. Of course this is a MYTH......come on it can NOT be true. BUT...the article notes:

"As of Feb. 2021, the indicator has been correct 40 out of 54 times, as measured by the S&P 500 Index." "This is a success rate of 74%."

That is a pretty good record.....but NO......I am not going to invest based on the outcome of a football game.

 

Super strong market today. We are seeing the markets play catch-up with some of the great earnings over the past couple of weeks. I have only a single red position today....Home Depot....by a very TINY percentage.

We are back.....once again.....to the point that all the negative media topics.....supply chain, inflation, rates, the FED....is having minimal impact. That is the way it should be....these topics have been lingering for many months now.....at least a couple of quarters. Earnings are booming in spite of these issues......and.....anything to do with these issues is fully baked in a long time ago.

I am looking forward to my three earnings this week. Google tomorrow.......and.....Amazon and Honeywell on Thursday.

 

Speaking of supply chain issues.

Supply chain issues will ease ‘later this summer:’ Cetera CIO

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/supp...e-later-this-summer-cetera-cio-183416473.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"The Federal Reserve met last Wednesday, Jan. 26, holding interest rates near zero but reiterating its intentions to raise them later this year in an effort to quell record inflation. One factor contributing to the surging inflation levels continues to be global supply chain issues — a problem that the Fed does not have a significant amount of influence over and one that may extend well into 2022.

According to Cetera Investment Management CIO Gene Goldman, however, the easing of supply-chain woes can be expected to come around summertime.

“Our belief is that supply-chain issues will be alleviated to an extent later this summer,” Goldman told Yahoo Finance Live. “Part of it is [because consumers are pivoting] from goods purchases to services like travel, flying — all the fun things we haven't done in a while.”

Goldman joined Yahoo Finance Live to discuss the most recent Fed meeting and policy statement. Cetera Investment Management LLC is an SEC-registered investment adviser owned by Cetera Financial Group based in El Segundo, Calif.

Indeed, the global supply-chain crunch has been showing signs of easing since the beginning of January. According to Barrons, container shipping costs from China to the U.S. West Coast have fallen around 30% from autumn 2021 peaks, and the number of containers sitting idly at the Port of Los Angeles is down 40% since early November.

'Growth is slowing, but nowhere near pre-pandemic levels'

These indicators still remain preliminary, however, and the outlook differs by country and industry sector. The threat of lockdowns and stricter government mandates pertaining to the pandemic may present an obstacle to further supply chain easing. Canada, for instance, is facing empty shelves in grocery stores across the country due to new regulations requiring American truckers to be vaccinated against COVID-19 in order to cross the border.

According to Goldman, action on the part of the Fed in the coming months may impact supply chains through an overall slowdown in consumption and commerce.

“The Fed is trying to tackle this inflation via supply chain issues,” he said. “We just believe that, yes, raising rates will help it to an extent, but just [in the form of] a slowdown in terms of the economy. And this goes into our first theme: economy. The growth is slowing, but nowhere near pre-pandemic levels.”

Looking abroad, Goldman also pointed to Chinese consumer behavior as presenting an opportunity for the supply chain crunch to be alleviated, with Chinese New Year on Feb. 1 fast approaching.

“Historically speaking, their purchases of goods start to slow down right after that time period,” he said. “So this is good news because then Chinese companies can help manufacture and help to open our supply chains. And if you look at the data, we're seeing improvements there.”"

MY COMMENT

YES....it takes time. We totally screwed up the economy for about two years and have just recently gotten away from all the free money and much of the restrictions. I still believe it is going to take another 12-18 months to get back to NORMAL again. I put supply chain in that same category.......12-18 months to normal.

We are slowly getting there and it......WILL.....happen. Patience....patience.

 

Keep us going....Emmett.

Today was about as perfect of a market day as possible. I had EVERY position in the green today. I beat the SP500 by 0.73%. And....I made a good chunk of money.

for the year I am now (-8.17%).....versus.....the SP500 which as of the close today is (-5.26%). I have made a significant dent in my year to date loss over the past few market days.

LOVING IT....at the moment. We should be set up for a nice week since we dont have to deal with much from the FED or the government this week. Even the WAR MONGERS in the press have backed off........or......got tired of the Ukraine war story.

 

WOW......the SP500 just had the worst month since......GASP.....March of 2020.

Stock market news live updates: S&P 500 rallies to close out January, but still logs worst month since March 2020

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-january-31-2022-124739343.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Stocks gained Monday as traders shook off a months' worth of equity market volatility and looked ahead to another packed week of corporate earnings results and economic data.

The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq each extended gains into the close. The S&P 500 added nearly 2%, building on Friday's advances. The Nasdaq also jumped by more than 3% a back-to-back session, and posted its best single-day gain of 2022 yet. Treasury yields edged slightly higher on the long end of the curve, with the benchmark 10-year yield hovering 1.8%. U.S. crude oil prices also added to recent gains after rising for a sixth straight week.

January marked a volatile month of trading for U.S. stocks, as investors in risk assets considered the implications of the Federal Reserve's signals to unleash more aggressive policies to help bring down soaring inflation. Goldman Sachs economists said over the weekend they now expect the Fed will raise rates by a quarter-point five times this year, versus the four hikes the firm saw previously. The prediction echoes the path seen by other major banks including Bank of America, which now sees seven rate hikes, and JPMorgan, which expects five.

Whether the Fed is able to raise interest rates and otherwise adjust its policies to bring down inflation without negatively impacting economic growth and corporate profits remains a key question, however. .........

4:03 p.m. ET: Stocks rally to close out final day of Jan.: S&P 500 jumps 1.9%, but still posts worst monthly performance since March 2020

Here were the main moves in markets as of 4:03 p.m. ET:

• S&P 500 (^GSPC): +83.68 (+1.89%) to 4,515.53
  
  
• Dow (^DJI): +406.39 (+1.17%) to 35,131.86
  
  
• Nasdaq (^IXIC): +469.31 (+3.41%) to 14,239.88
  
  
• Crude (CL=F): +$1.46 (+1.68%) to $88.28 a barrel
  
  
• Gold (GC=F): +$12.50 (+0.70%) to $1,799.10 per ounce
  
  
• 10-year Treasury (^TNX): 0 bps to yield 1.7820%
  

12:37 p.m. ET: Stocks turn sharply positive

The three major stock indexes traded in positive territory on Monday and looked to close out a volatile month on a high note.

The Nasdaq Composite gained more than 2% intraday. The S&P 500 added more than 1%, as the consumer discretionary, information technology and communication services sectors outperformed. All 11 major sectors in the index were also higher during the session.


11:54 a.m. ET: Moderna shares jump after company receives full FDA approval for COVID-19 vaccine

Shares of pharmaceutical company Moderna (MRNA) jumped intraday on Monday after the company received full approval for its COVID-19 vaccine from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.

The stock rose more than 3% just before noon in New York. Previously, Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine was available in the U.S. under Emergency Use Authorization since December 2020. The COVID-19 vaccine produced by Pfizer and BioNTech had been the first to receive full FDA approval in the U.S. in August 2021.

"This is a momentous milestone in Moderna's history as it is our first product to achieve licensure in the U.S.," Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel said in a press statement. "The full licensure of Spikevax in the U.S. now joins that in Canada, Japan, the European Union, the UK, Israel, and other countries, where the adolescent indication is also approved. We are grateful to the U.S. FDA for their thorough review of our application. We are humbled by the role that Spikevax is playing to help end this pandemic.""

MY COMMENT

A great way to close out January. The SP500 result for the month is the same as the SP500 year to date.......(-5.26%). The worst month in a little over a year and a half. NOT....much of a big deal. Now if it was the worst month for the SP500 in perhaps ten years....or twenty years.....or fifty years.....it might mean something. As it is.......it is not meaningful at all. Over a longer term chart this month will be INVISIBLE.

We are building on last Friday and added some momentum today. If we can knock out a +2% to +3% gain for this week we will be well on our way to a re-set for the year. I have yet to hear......anyone.......that is a normal retail investor voice any sort of fear or panic.

 

Being actively and fully invested in the markets, in order to capture the BIG GAINS like we had today and Friday....is critical. This is why I am a fully invested....all the time....investor. You can never anticipate the explosive UP days and if you miss them your returns will suck compared to the averages like the SP500.

I continue to be fully invested for the long term as usual.

 

I am on a roll with one of my paintings right now. It is accepted into a museum exhibition and will be included in an article in a national magazine. The only bad thing.....I miss seeing it on my wall. I am going to miss it over the next.....SIX MONTHS.

I really actively try to work the PR on my art. The more I can build up the provenance of my paintings the more they are likely to increase in value. I own them because I love to look at them.....but.....if I can make money at the same time....great. This is the benefit of collecting. You get to enjoy your collection and at the same time.......if you choose carefully.....you will probably not lose any money.

Most of the art that I buy is anywhere from 135 to 70 years old. It has been around long enough that there is an established auction market for the type of paintings that I collect. This makes it much less of a crap shoot than collecting "new" artists. I know the artists and I know their established values in the auction world. Since they are mostly all dead.......they are not being promoted by a gallery.....so the market value of their work is a true market value.