btw, just a quickie full disclosure in here but ended up pulling the trigger pre-cpi report on spuzzy at 4582. felt like the R/R (risk/reward) was p doggone good up here to just pass up as we're retesting the bounce high from last week (which is the bounce high off of this correction thus far). maybe a double bounce high of sorts we shall see. have my targets set and stops in to lock in profits on this down move. gl to y'all's today and rest of this week!
Wow a hot CPI numbers Growth names aren’t selling off like they did on rising bonds yields though, some of those names have gotten beaten down like 50 to 60% from their highs so I guess a lot of bad news have priced into those names
Fed St Louis President James Bullard is unnerving the markets by saying the Fed should raise rates by 100bp by July 1, including a 50bp hike in March. On the dove-to-hawk spectrum, Bullard is the most hawkish member of the FOMC. 10yrTY 2.04% (+10.4 bp) https://twitter.com/garyblack00/sta...2?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet Looks like the hawkish comments from Bullard tanking the market a little bit here, he is a voting FED member this year I think
So as mentioned earlier this AM before the CPI print hit, I had entered 7 contract short on the ES futures at 4582 (which oddly enough was just 3 handles shy of the short entry I had on the prior dip just before this one that turned into a pretty healthy winner for me.). Think I had mentioned here that I was maybe done on the trading front for the rest of this month, unless I had those "conviction" levels back up there for me, where I felt very confident on the R/R (risk/reward) on the trade. Admittedly, I didn't feel any conviction for the first 3 trading days this week thus I did nothing, and hardly even looked at the markets much at all (been kinda busy with the IRL too tbh lol). Well, it wasn't until yesterday around mid-morning when I had found out that we had this inflation report hitting this morning. Was super happy to have discovered that when I did (and oddly enough it happened while I was on my indoor stationary bike of all places getting a workout in lol. ). Anyway, I'll try not to make this post too much of a wall of text, even though I have such tendencies to do that in here haha. But, I had felt really good that if the market closed up at or near HOD yesterday that this was likely going to be a great STFR (sell/short the fucking rip) kinda rally (or aka, a "sucker's rally" as I sometimes like to call them lol). Because, for me, I felt really good about the odds of today's inflation print coming in hotter than expected could be very possible, despite so many of the talking head idiots on the media saying otherwise (I mean truthfully, I feel like they've all been downplaying this as "transitory", and have been trying to push that narrative for so long now... like seriously? shut the *bleep* up already! lol.). Truth be told here, I for one was NEVER in that "transitory" narrative. Thus, had a good sneaky suspicion that today's print would surprise on the upside. And sure enough it did (of course not a surprise to me, but maybe for those goober heads over at CNBC and the like. ). Anyway, I felt really good about this re-entry on le side in the Spuz. Cause, even though the market did bounce back up to last week's highs (which I'll be the first to admit I did not think that was in the cards! lol), but felt really good that the prospects of this bounce actually being anything "sustainable", and moving even higher from here were very slim to none for me. So anyway, I bit the bullet and pulled the trigger. I'm normally not "aggressive" like this like ever. But, truthfully I won't shy away to pull the trigger if a said trade does meet my convictions, which this trade admittedly did for me. We'll see how it goes. I wasn't really even on today to babysit this trade so I was willing to give it a lot of wiggle room if you will, because at the end of the day I did feel pretty confident that eventually it will go in my direction, which it sure did after that morning bounce attempt fizzled out pretty quickly haha. This is not realized so not rejoicing quite yet lol, still holding. And still very confident that we'll see a new correction low on this move at some point before we ever make a new ATH print in the Spuz. Just my 2c here that is all. Hope y'all's are having an incredible day thus far today!
Got in some DXJ at $63.91 to play the yen weakness. The Japanese market probably will be down too if the US market performs poorly but I think they have a chance to outperform if the yen weakness continues
Now they are talking about the possibility of an emergency rate hike before the March meeting I doubt it will happen but this kind of rumor would keep the market pretty nervous.
So why do these reports have to be after hours? It's like market makers like having gaps -- is that a good thing? Do the reports when liquidity is the lowest, really? Like you said, they were able to report during regular market hours. (Guy probably wanted to go home at a regular time)
Top of the morning Stockaholics! Happy Friday to all of you! And welcome to the final trading day of this week and a frrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrresh start! Here is a quick check on those futures as we are just under 4 hours from the cash market open. GLTA on this Friday, February the 11th, 2022.
padding on a bit more to yesterday move here, not too shabby. could potentially be one of my bigger trades in a long long while we shall see. for those wondering if i'll look to do a little trade/risk management down here as that's always a great question that comes up whenever one of these pretty decisive winners like this one appears to be shaping up for me thus far. have trailing stops put in place but giving it a bit of wiggle room for now, as i'm actually not looking to exist these contracts yet only because i honestly just do not have the time to babysit this and monitor the markets much at all anymore sadly. the IRL (in real life) has been so far doggone demanding for me as of late, and it just doesn't allow me to look at the market much at all anymore which quite frankly really sucks donkey balls if i can be super honest there. also, not looking to add onto here either btw, even though yes, as mentioned before my conviction for the short is about as sky high as it has ever been for me. meaning, i haven't felt as good about the prospects of further downside in the broad US market than i do now, solely due to the FED for me (not even geopolitics tbh, even though i fully understand and realize that could play a factor as well no doubt). at the end of the day it really all comes down to the FED for me... so we'll see how this plays out. thx again for your awesome words here guys. hope y'all's are all having a glorious day on this friday! cheers!
I hope you took profits on that huge volatile downside! I mean could definitely go down a lot further but I'm sure that IV spike was huge.
Well this is a nice bounce, if that sets the low then no serious damage has been done. Still, not liking tech stocks. Steel has been strong, and Gold is breaking out today--GLD needs to hold 172.
Yeah I think some people joking about the guy who released the earnings misread Eastern Time as Pacific Time lol I think their excuse is that they don't want the volatility during the market hours but I feel like retail traders/investors like us missing out a lot with these gap ups/downs on earnings or news over the weekend
Gold and yen spiking on the Russian war fears Fertilizer stocks like CF and MOS are having a good day on the war fears and defense stocks like LMT and GD did well too. Gonna be a busy weekend on Sunday evening to watch the Super Bowl and also try to monitor the futures
