The Long Term Investor

I imagine that anyone on here knows what I think about the IRS as one of the people whose 2020 tax return is caught up in the NIGHTMARE BACKLOG at the IRS. We have been hearing for many months how there was a backlog of about 8MILLION paper returns and a backlog of about 5MILLION pieces of correspondence from taxpayers.

WELL......now the TRUTH is coming out.

IRS backlog hits nearly 24 million returns, further imperiling the 2022 tax filing season

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/tax...eriling-the-2022-tax-filing-season/ar-AATKL3A

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Nearly 24 million taxpayers are still waiting for the Internal Revenue Service to process their tax returns from last year — a number far larger than previously reported by the agency — with many refunds being held up for ten months or more.

The inventory of unprocessed returns and related correspondence was provided by the IRS’s taxpayer advocate service to the tax-writing committees in Congress. The backlog will probably further slow service in the 2022 filing season; the Treasury Department, the IRS’s parent agency, warned in January that it expected its response to be subpar this year.

The pileup of work that remains from last year, according to three people who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not approved to speak publicly, comes as the tax agency struggles to hire and train new staff, and respond to growing bipartisan pressure from lawmakers and tax preparers to clear the logjam and provide relief to taxpayers. Among the considerations are suspending tax collections and excusing some penalty enforcement.

“This situation is untenable,” A group of 30 Senate Republicans wrote in a Thursday letter to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and IRS Commissioner Charles Rettig. They pointed to a raft of delayed returns, some dating back to the 2019 filing season, along with millions of missed calls and other correspondence that had threatened “our constituents’ ability to have their returns processed accurately and efficiently.” But some Republicans simultaneously are working to block any new federal aid that might help the agency, and the letter did not endorse any spending.

The IRS’s productivity plummeted during the coronavirus pandemic as thousands of employees worked from home for months without access to returns, audits and other business — difficulties that followed years of budget cuts. The federal stimulus measures also added to the agency’s workload, as it emphasized getting relief money to millions of Americans. Paper returns took the greatest hit, as mail piled up on trucks outside closed offices for months.

The Republican senators’ letter came just days after a report from the IRS inspector general found that the agency continues to suffer from severe hiring shortages, inefficient practices and old equipment. That includes mail processing woes, since its systems have “outdated dust collectors” that cause paper jams. Poor scanners, meanwhile, meant the IRS last year missed out on $56 million because of “untimely check deposits,” since the agency could not tell if envelopes it received contained checks.

As of Jan. 28, the tally of outstanding individual and business returns requiring what the IRS calls “manual processing” — an operation where an employee must take at least one action rather than relying on an automated system to move the case — came to 23.7 million, the taxpayer advocate data shows. The number includes 9.7 million paper returns awaiting processing; another 4.1 million that were suspended because of errors with stimulus payments, pandemic relief or other issues; 4.1 million amended returns and 5.8 million pieces of correspondence awaiting action between the agency and taxpayers to resolve issues before the returns are completed.

In January, National Taxpayer Advocate Erin Collins had reported a backlog of at least 10 million returns based on IRS data. An IRS official, meantime, said the agency counts the inventory from last year’s filing season at about 6 million paper returns for individual taxpayers. Both numbers are far higher than the unprocessed returns the IRS faced before the pandemic — in the past, the agency typically carried over 1 million or fewer returns into the next tax season.

But the new data takes into account broader categories of work that have stalled since the pandemic and some returns that have come in this year. Taxpayer advocates, lawmakers and others say the expansive count is more realistic.

“This entire ecosystem of pending cases gives the public a fuller picture of what the IRS is up against,” said Chad Hooper, executive director of the nonprofit Professional Managers Association, which represents hundreds of IRS managers. “And it’s a crazy number before most people have filed their taxes for this year.”

The stockpile does not include audits lingering because of pandemic slowdowns, enforcement and collection actions, appeals of audits, notices of tax liens, penalties or other business in the pipeline, Hooper said.

The vast majority of taxpayers now file their tax returns electronically, and those can generally be processed quickly unless they are flagged for errors, identity theft or other issues. Roughly 10 percent — about 17 million people — still file Form 1040, the traditional individual income tax return, on paper.

The IRS is taking at least ten months to process paper returns filed for the 2020 tax year, and has only caught up to April 2021 for returns without errors, according to the most recent data on its website. Last year the vast majority of taxpayers — about 77 percent — received refunds.

Since returns are processed in the order in which they were received, “It does mean the 2022 filings made this year are at the end of the line,” Hooper said.

The backlog was formed in part by the mandates placed on the IRS over the course of the roughly two-year pandemic.

Beginning in 2020, lawmakers deputized the agency to send direct pandemic relief checks to millions of Americans, adding immense pressure to act swiftly to help cash-strapped families newly out of work. Multiple stimulus packages approved rounds of such payments, and Democrats last March made an even more work-intensive request: to stand up a system that would distribute monthly tax payments to families with young children.

President Biden and top Democrats proposed boosting the IRS budget, arguing that the agency had been severely underfunded and understaffed for decades before the added responsibilities. But the effort has so far failed to gain enough support in Congress, while talks continue around a new spending deal to fund the government and prevent a looming shutdown.

Democrats and Republicans alike each express confidence they can strike a bargain that funds federal agencies through the remainder of the 2022 fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30. But GOP lawmakers repeatedly have warned Democrats about including “poison pills,” offering a list of nonstarters in October that included proposed increases in funding at the IRS.

Rather than support new funding, Republicans this week called on the IRS to “consider exercising its existing authority” to ease the burden on taxpayers. That would include halting automated liens and other collections processes, particularly until the staff can sort through piles of unopened mail, while better prioritizing the kinds of returns in its possession.

“When our constituents cannot get help from those tasked to administer our tax laws, it diminishes the integrity of our voluntary tax system,” the senators wrote in their letter.

IRS spokeswoman Jodie Reynolds referred questions on the lingering inventory to a letter Rettig sent this week to all 535 members of Congress. Rettig, an appointee of former president Trump, acknowledged an “unprecedented amount of unprocessed tax returns and correspondence remaining in the IRS inventory during 2021.”

But he said the problem has been compounded by a lack of funding to hire new staff and modernize its aging computer software systems, some of which date to the 1960s.

Rettig said he is considering penalty relief for taxpayers. “We will rapidly adapt to changing circumstances, when appropriate to do so,” he said. “We are doing everything we can with all of the resources available to us.”

The agency has already suspended mailing some automated collection notices that are triggered when records show a taxpayer owes tax and has not filed a tax return. Many of these letters have been sent after returns have been filed but have not been processed.

The commissioner announced last week that he was temporarily reassigning 1,200 employees as part of a “surge team” to help. But Collins told the oversight panel of the House Ways and Means Committee this week that the staffing problems are far broader, compounded by recruiting challenges and low pay.

The agency sought to fill 5,000 positions for several campuses across the country in time for this tax season, but was able to hire less than 200, she said. The situation is so dire that for the first time, officials are offering $500 referral bonuses to employees if a new hire stays in the job for a year.

The agency has one of the government’s oldest workforces. Its submission processing unit — responsible for opening the mail — lost 20 percent of its staff last year to retirements, departures and transfers to other IRS departments, officials said. The Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration reported this week that as of August 2021, IRS faced a total staff shortfall in the submission processing unit of about 2,598 employees. The surge Rettig announced last week is not going to submission processing, however, but to a department known as accounts management, which is responsible for answering taxpayers’ phone calls and responding to general correspondence.

The watchdog said that although the IRS has several initiatives underway to help address its hiring shortages, “to date these approaches have not been successful.” It urged the agency to delay a planned closure of its processing center in Austin — part of a long-term consolidation as more business is done electronically — “until hiring and backlog shortages are addressed.”

“Just like many industries across the country, jobs are available, but people are not applying,” Reynolds, the IRS spokeswoman, said in an email. “In [our case,] applicants may not like the shifts or pay — many of these are lower graded positions that were below the $15.00 minimum hourly rate.”

The backlog and looming troubles with this filing season led tax preparer groups to form a coalition in recent weeks to pressure the agency for relief.

“The service says, 'stay patient’,” said Nina Tross, executive director of the National Society of Tax Professionals, which has joined with ten groups to form the Tax Professionals United for Taxpayer Relief Coalition, representing up to 100,000 preparers. “But there is nobody to help the taxpayer. What is it going to take to get this outstanding inventory through the system?”

Tross said that while some automated notices have stopped, many of her clients are still inundated with penalties saying they failed to file or failed to pay, when in fact they have or have sent letters back contesting the charges. Preparers seeking to file power of attorney forms for clients also have gotten nowhere, she said.

“They’re sitting on somebody’s desk who cannot come into the office,” she said. “We’re hitting all of these roadblocks and it’s just not good enough.”"

MY COMMENT

What a DISASTER and what HORRIBLE agency. What in the world were all these employees doing while working from home if they can not access any of the returns or correspondence? They were being paid to sit and do nothing.

I have news for them....it is NEVER going to work to try to hire people for less than $15 per hour to handle their BIG MESS.

This EPIDEMIC of incompetence is going to put the entire Federal Government at risk eventually.

Now that I have my Social Security payments straightened out........by submitting my own 2020 return to Social Security in an Appeal process.......I dont care if it takes them ten years to process my tax return.

 

Well if that is your plan.....at least stick around and keep posting.

 

Here is a little weekend housing story.

Housing: Homebuyers confront 'an abnormal' market for yet another year

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hous...al-market-for-yet-another-year-210950460.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)
Less than a month before the traditional home-selling season begins, buyers again face a brutal housing market.

Too little inventory for sale, lofty price, and now rising mortgage rates have created a trifecta of obstacles for homebuyers.

“We’re in an abnormal housing market,” David Berson, chief economist and senior vice president at Nationwide Mutual, told Yahoo Money. “The issue is the low supply of available existing and new homes feeding high demand that continues to drive home prices up. The real question is whether mortgage rates will choke out the market due to excess demand.”

Buyers need to be ready to pounce as soon as they find "the one" or one that's good enough or risk getting shut out of the market altogether as affordability wanes.

Here’s what they’re up against and what a buyer can do.

Inventory for homes is at historic lows

This year, more than 45 million millennials will be in their prime first-time home buying ages of 26 to 35. What they face is a scarce number of homes to buy, a persistent trend made worse by the pandemic.

Total housing inventory dropped 18% in December from the month before to 910,000 units, the lowest level since 1999 when the National Association of Realtors started tracking the data. That’s a deficit of between 500,000 to 750,000 active listings compared to December 2017-2019 inventory levels, according to Black Knight, a mortgage analytic firm.

Last year, a lack of workers and building materials and supply chain issues kept builders from developing enough new homes for sale. Many buyers — with not much to buy — scooped up new homes that were still under construction, driving up prices, Berson said.

On the existing home-sale market, the rise in remote work and hybrid work from home arrangements does not bode well for homebuyers. Those who can work anywhere also can move anywhere, creating new demand in more markets. Others simply don’t need to move for new jobs and are staying put.

Refinancing to lower mortgage rates and lingering COVID concerns also are deterring current homeowners from selling their homes.

“Owners of existing homes haven’t put their homes on market as in the past,” Berson said.

Homes prices continue to rise

Even though a widely watched index showed home values slowing in November — albeit at elevated levels — prices again accelerated in late 2021 into early 2022, according to Black Knight. Home values jumped by 0.84% last month – the largest single-month growth of any December on record.

“Demand is high, but supply chain issues with building new homes creates pricing demands and inflation in home values, [it’s making it] more expensive to buy homes,” Jeff Ruben, president of WSFS Mortgage, told Yahoo Money.


Black Knight's Home Price Index
How much more expensive? About $350 more per month, or 32% higher than a year ago, according to Black Knight. It now takes 25.8% of the median household income to make the average payment on a 30-year mortgage, up from the 22.4% at the end of the third quarter.

Price growth may not be as steep this year, though.

“As mortgage rates rise, we do expect some moderation in housing demand, causing house price growth to temper,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, in a statement.

That, of course, brings other problems for buyers.

Mortgage rates are expected to reach 4% by year’s end

The rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage — the most common home loan for buyers — has been steady around 3.55% for the past three weeks, according to Freddie Mac, after increasing more than a half-point in January.


(Credit: Freddie Mac)
A surprisingly good jobs report for January released last week could mean rates will climb even higher in the near term, but uncertainty over Russia and Ukraine could temper an increase. Overall, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) expects mortgage rates to continue to rise throughout the year and reach 4% by December 2022.

“There's a race right now to lock in those rates and know exactly what your payment is going to be for the next 30 years,” Jessica Lautz, vice president of demographics and behavioral insights at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), recently told Yahoo Finance. “When we look towards 2022 and rates rising even more, it's going to cut out folks who are really stretching, who are saving and trying to enter home ownership.”

How to play in today’s market

Despite the headwinds, it’s “still an attractive time to be a borrower or buyer,” Ruben said, “because if you continue to delay your home purchase, it will be more expensive for the same home.”

Tackle the basics, Ruben said, to set yourself up for success in today’s competitive market:

• Make sure payments are current and timely on other debts.
  
• Have a good credit score and don’t borrow against credit cards. Credit (FICO) scores range from 300 (poor) to 850 (excellent). Although some lenders will give a loan with a 620 credit score, conventional lenders prefer a credit score of 700 or higher.
  
• Save as much money toward the down payment as you can. A higher down payment makes it easier to qualify for a home loan and puts you in a better position with the seller if there are multiple bidders.
  
• Get pre-approved, so the seller has confidence you can close.
  

Experian's FICO credit score range
If you’re selling your home, keep in mind that the number of days a home is on the market is historically low with sellers able to sell quickly and at a relatively good price. If you are selling your home in hopes of purchasing another one, chances are your house may sell before you find a new home. That may require you to find temporary housing."

MY COMMENT

YES.....yes.....and yes........to everything in this article. I also think the article is simply way low on the prediction of a 4% mortgage rate by the END of 2022. I would guess that the rates will hit 4% within 3-6 months. A week ago I saw rates at 4% in some parts of the country. My prediction would be rates between 4.5% and 5% by year end.

I would hate to be one of those 45MILLION home buying age Millennials. Us Baby Boomers lived our lives the same way.....as part of a HUGE POPULATION GROUP that tended to go through all the same phases in life at the same time......it can create real issues.

 

Speaking of housing....here in my little local area of 4200 homes there are now.......NINE homes for sale. Four are in the lower end of the market that range from $646,000 to $899,000. Five are in the upper range of the market and range from $1.295MILLION to $1.995MILLION.

Two of the homes in the lower end of the market have been for sale for many months. Something is wrong with them. I think one is overpriced......both were lease homes for a long time. I cant see much wrong with them in the photos.....but there has to be something wrong for buyers to leave them siting on the market for month after month in this extremely HOT market. There is nothing wrong with the neighborhoods they are each in.

 

Continuing with the real estate posts......of course.....what we have been told by the media for years.......how people do not want large homes and want to be in the city.......is EXACTLY......WRONG, as usual.

Which US Cities Have the Largest Houses?

https://www.hireahelper.com/lifestyle/us-cities-with-the-largest-houses/

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, Americans are rethinking whether their monthly mortgage payments should go towards obtaining bigger living spaces or securing the ease of nearby work and school proximity. Today, according to a recent Pew survey, more potential and existing homeowners prefer larger houses with more rooms to accommodate specialized family tasks, rather than smaller houses with shorter commutes to work, school, and consumer conveniences.

That survey conducted in the summer of 2021 is comparable to a similar survey conducted in 2019 before the pandemic hit. The latest survey found that people are now more likely to prefer owning a home in a community where "houses are larger and farther apart, but schools, stores and restaurants are several miles away." Further, fewer people are willing to own smaller homes that are "closer to each other, but schools, stores and restaurants are within walking distance."

The average size of newly constructed, single-family homes has steadily increased from around 1,700 square feet in the mid-1970s to around 2,500 square feet toda.

Responses to additional questions suggest that people's preference for homes with greater elbow room is due to an increasing number of families adapting to lifestyle changes imposed by pandemic-related restrictions. This includes more employees working from home, parents managing online schooling for their children, and more family dinners prepared from the kitchen.

While pandemic life has undoubtedly impacted home buyer preferences, data from the U.S. Census Bureau suggests that America's appetite for larger homes had been growing for decades. The average size of newly constructed, single-family homes has steadily increased from around 1,700 square feet in the mid-1970s to around 2,500 square feet today. This increase in house size corresponds with an increase in the average number of rooms per house, which also increased markedly during this period. Indeed, the percentage of newly constructed, single-family homes with at least four bedrooms climbed from 23% to 44% over the same time period.



The continuing trend towards "bigger is better" in residential home construction has gradually changed the composition of the nation's housing stock, but size varies widely by state. For example, less than 17% of all existing homes in Florida, Arkansas, and Rhode Island have four or more bedrooms. This compares to over 42% of homes in Utah. In general, homes in the North Central and Mountain West regions skew larger than those in coastal states or in the South. Interestingly, the share of houses with four or more bedrooms in each state is not highly correlated with either median home price or median household income.



At the city level, there is even more variability. While many cities in the aforementioned states stand out as having large homes, notable additions include younger cities in California and Texas, such as Sugar Land and Elk Grove. When compared to older, more established cities, those that have experienced rapid growth in recent years tend to boast larger homes.

The data used in this analysis is from the U.S. Census Bureau and Zillow. To identify the U.S. cities with the largest homes, researchers at HireAHelper calculated the percentage of existing homes with four or more bedrooms. Researchers also included the percentage of homes with five or more bedrooms as well as the median home price. To improve relevance, only cities with at least 100,000 residents were included.

Here are the U.S. cities with the largest houses.



Large U.S. Cities With the Biggest Homes

15. Louisville/Jefferson County, KY

• Share of homes with 4+ bedrooms: 19.4%
• Share of home with 5+ bedrooms: 4.2%
• Median home price: $215,675
• Median household income: $54,853

14. Raleigh, NC

• Share of homes with 4+ bedrooms: 20.1%
• Share of home with 5+ bedrooms: 4.5%
• Median home price: $396,232
• Median household income: $69,333

13. El Paso, TX

• Share of homes with 4+ bedrooms: 21.2%
• Share of home with 5+ bedrooms: 2.7%
• Median home price: $177,832
• Median household income: $48,542

12. Fort Worth, TX

• Share of homes with 4+ bedrooms: 21.4%
• Share of home with 5+ bedrooms: 3.1%
• Median home price: $281,054
• Median household income: $65,356

11. Phoenix, AZ

• Share of homes with 4+ bedrooms: 21.4%
• Share of home with 5+ bedrooms: 3.5%
• Median home price: $386,883
• Median household income: $60,931

10. Charlotte, NC

• Share of homes with 4+ bedrooms: 22.0%
• Share of home with 5+ bedrooms: 5.1%
• Median home price: $343,760
• Median household income: $63,483

9. Omaha, NE

• Share of homes with 4+ bedrooms: 22.0%
• Share of home with 5+ bedrooms: 5.3%
• Median home price: $245,009
• Median household income: $61,305

8. Arlington, TX

• Share of homes with 4+ bedrooms: 22.4%
• Share of home with 5+ bedrooms: 3.0%
• Median home price: $289,787
• Median household income: $61,716

7. Las Vegas, NV

• Share of homes with 4+ bedrooms: 23.2%
• Share of home with 5+ bedrooms: 5.0%
• Median home price: $384,931
• Median household income: $58,713

6. Wichita, KS

• Share of homes with 4+ bedrooms: 23.3%
• Share of home with 5+ bedrooms: 8.4%
• Median home price: $168,415
• Median household income: $55,056

5. San Jose, CA

• Share of homes with 4+ bedrooms: 25.8%
• Share of home with 5+ bedrooms: 4.8%
• Median home price: $1,332,518
• Median household income: $115,893

4. Bakersfield, CA

• Share of homes with 4+ bedrooms: 26.9%
• Share of home with 5+ bedrooms: 3.9%
• Median home price: $348,170
• Median household income: $62,402

3. Aurora, CO

• Share of homes with 4+ bedrooms: 27.1%
• Share of home with 5+ bedrooms: 7.5%
• Median home price: $470,720
• Median household income: $69,235

2. Virginia Beach, VA

• Share of homes with 4+ bedrooms: 30.3%
• Share of home with 5+ bedrooms: 6.8%
• Median home price: $346,059
• Median household income: $79,054

1. Colorado Springs, CO

• Share of homes with 4+ bedrooms: 32.7%
• Share of home with 5+ bedrooms: 11.2%
• Median home price: $451,498
• Median household income: $70,527

Detailed Findings & Methodology
The data used in this analysis is from the U.S. Census Bureau's 2019 American Community Survey and Zillow's Housing Data. To determine the locations with the largest homes, researchers calculated the share of homes with four or more bedrooms. In the event of a tie, the location with the greater share of homes with five or more bedrooms was ranked higher. As a final consideration, should the four and five bedroom shares be equivalent, the location with the greater median home price was ranked higher. To improve relevance, only cities with at least 100,000 residents were included. Additionally, cities were grouped into cohorts based on population size: small (100,000–149,999), midsize (150,000–349,999), and large (350,000 or more)."

MY COMMENT

It is amazing how consistently the media and others are flat out......WRONG.....when they tell us what we should want and why. Most of the BS they put out on what the Millennials......"should"....want is simply wrong. AND.......the above is NOT due to the pandemic. As the article states.......the survey before the pandemic in 2019 showed the same thing.

On a broader level the pandemic has been an eye-opener with everyone that is an......"expert".....on TV broadcasting from their homes. It is simply unbelievable how so many of these opinion makers.....that everyone assumed were very successful and powerful people.....have been shown to simply be the opposite. Many of them are living in dismal cracker-box housing with no decor and nothing on the walls. Now that we have been able to see how all the....."experts and opinion makers".....actually live, it is clear that many of them are not successful at all. The average person is living a better life than many of them.......which is great......the average hard working person deserves it.

 

I believe that NVIDIA reports earnings this week.....on Wednesday.

I dont know why earnings reporting day is jumping around so much this quarter for many companies. Last I looked they were going to report about a week later than this week. The earnings reporting dates seem to be changing more than usual this time around.

 

Here is a little article about the markets and what they......"might".....face this coming week (tomorrow). Short term NOISE. I do like one section in the middle of the article that discusses the medium to short term time period in the context of the FED and RUSSIA. So i have posted that portion of the article below. I happen to STRONGLY AGREE with the content in that section of the article and believe that when we look back in a year or two.....what is described will have been shown to be........REALITY and TRUTH.

Russia-Ukraine tensions, retail sales, Walmart earnings: What to know this week

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/doub...ukraine-what-to-know-this-week-200245001.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

(from the middle of the article)

"Some experts say the projections are greatly exaggerated.

“Even with elevated levels of inflation, we expect the Federal Reserve to tighten less than the market expects in 2022,” Treasury Partners Chief Investment Officer Richard Saperstein said in a note.

“We do not expect the Federal Reserve to announce rate hikes at every meeting and such extreme tightening scenarios suggest that we’re currently witnessing peak Fed mania,” he wrote, adding a moderate tightening process through a combination of rate hikes and the implementation of quantitative tightening starting this summer were likely.

On the geopolitical front, LPL Financial’s Ryan Detrick also appeared to temper the notion that a move by Russia into Ukraine would crash the stock market, pointing out that, historically, the great majority of geopolitical events going back to World War II did not put much of a dent in equities and losses were typically recovered quickly.

“You can’t minimize what today’s news could mean on that part of the world and the people impacted, but from an investment point of view we need to remember that major geopolitical events historically haven’t moved stocks much,” Detrick said.

As an example, Detrick cited one of the best six-month runs in U.S. stocks ever following the assassination of President John F. Kennedy in November 1963.

“The truth is a solid economy can make up for a lot of sins,” Detrick added.


The great majority of geopolitical events going back to World War II didn’t put much of a dent in stocks, with any losses made up quite quickly, according to Ryan Detrick, hief Market Strategist for LPL Financial."

MY COMMENT

This continuation of the......... RUSSIA, RUSSIA, RUSSIA........obsession is simply delusional when it comes to the markets. Either the invasion of Ukraine will NOT happen in which case all this drama will have been a complete waste of short term time and money. OR.....if it does happen.....the impact on the world and the USA will be minimal. Either way it is not a topic that is going to impact the markets for any significant time period beyond a few weeks to perhaps a month.

As to the FED.....I totally agree with the above. The media is in full on FED panic mode right now......all HYPE. Yes they are going to raise rates.....but....I expect they will do so in a very measured fashion and less than all the fear mongers are harping on right now. Again.........a meaningless story-line for most investors that have a horizan longer than 6-18 months.

My mantra as a long term investor right now is.......STAY STRONG......STAY INVESTED.

 

WELL.....we are seeing the usual flailing around....lingering.....in the markets today. No real confidence of direction to the markets now....other than slightly to the down side.

NOW....the pandemic. It is OVER.....done. I am not saying that Covid is gone....but it will simply be become an annual flu. Many investors bought hot name stocks that got a big kick UP as a result of the pandemic. NOW might be a good time for everyone to review their portfolio.....if you are a long term investor. Are your holdings really long term winners? OR....are they companies that got a BIG benefit from the pandemic and working at home and are now starting to FADE. Pelaton is a good example as are many other companies that were HOT during the pandemic. Did you chase after some of the HOT names?

Personally I simply held onto my normal Portfolio Model....long term holdings.....in the pandemic. BUT....many people bought and benefited from companies that were particularly suited for what was going on. Many of those companies have NOW had the wind taken out of their sails. In my view it will be a mistake to hold onto those stocks hoping they will come back to the great performance of the recent past.

It is a good time for any investor that is long term to review their portfolio and trim out the dead PANDEMIC wood. Waiting for those......pandemic benefit...... companies that have gone down to go back up so you can sell and break even is a mistake. It is a good time in history...for any long term investor....to make sure what they hold are really SUPREME BUSINESSES for the long term now that the pandemic is winding down.

 

To continue on the topic of HOT companies or businesses and long term potential.

Nuclear Breakthrough! And Other Bad Investment Theses
Just because something could revolutionize the world in the long run doesn’t mean it is a wise investment today.

https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...-breakthrough-and-other-bad-investment-theses

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Something truly unusual happened Wednesday: Headlines had good news! As you may have heard, scientists at a UK research facility made a major breakthrough in nuclear fusion power. They successfully generated 59 megajoules (MJ), more than double the previous record of 22 MJ, set in 1997. Now, that is only enough energy to power an electric kettle for 11 hours, and generating it consumed much more electricity than that. So this technology is nowhere near ready for primetime. Researchers estimate it could take 10 to 20 years to become commercially viable—if it ever comes to fruition. Yet even the mere prospect of a clean, reliable, powerful energy source was enough to make the world salivate. Some coverage even hyped the big returns potentially awaiting the investors seeding some of the startups pursuing this technology, including Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates. Seems to me like a perfect time for a friendly reminder: Chasing the technology of the far-flung future isn’t a viable strategy for normal people investing for retirement.

It is always exciting when a tiny spark has the potential to morph into interesting, world-changing technology. It is especially romantic to think about today’s small thing becoming the next decade’s big thing and enjoying that ride—reaping financial rewards—along the way. Problem is, there isn’t ever a clear path for scientific breakthroughs to become commercially huge. Some, like the internal combustion engine, computers and the Internet do. But others flame out. In the mid-to-late 2000s, the prospect of “clean coal” was all the rage. Coal, the thesis went, would be a cheap, plentiful and clean power source for decades—all power providers had to do was convert lignite coal to synthetic natural gas, then capture the emissions and store the carbon underground. Yet it never panned out. When natural gas stole coal’s “cheap power” crown, the financial incentives to push the gasification of coal forward largely faded. Meanwhile, the carbon capture and storage aspect didn’t develop as proponents hoped. The flagship project—a multibillion dollar plant in Kemper County, Mississippi—was never completed. What there was of it was finally demolished last year.

Nuclear fusion could be amazing. Transformative. Harnessing the same energy that powers our sun! But I am old enough to remember when people said the same thing about cold fusion in 1989, when two scientists claimed to have observed it. No one was ever able to replicate the experiment, and the efforts soon fizzled out. Now, today’s fusion breakthroughs seem more legitimate, and the European group isn’t the only source of progress. A Canadian outfit has already taken promising baby steps. But are those baby steps for sure headed toward large-scale electricity generation that makes wind, solar, natural gas and other forms of nuclear redundant in 10, 20 or 30 years? There is no way to know—and that, for investors, is the problem. Fusion could be the winner. But so could hydrogen. Or space-based solar power. Or something even science fiction writers haven’t dreamed up. It is all just too pie in the sky for now. I get the allure and romance of the big, game-changing idea. But those are often about emotions—a terrible rationale for investing.

Even if you are right about which technology will ascend over time, that still doesn’t guarantee you make a mountain of money investing in it. Picking the tech isn’t the only requirement—you must also identify the winners within that space. The Wall Street Journal’s Jason Zweig highlighted this problem last week when discussing cryptocurrencies: Even if proponents are right that blockchain and digital coins will eventually dominate payment technology, there is no guarantee that bitcoin, ethereum, dogecoin (ha) or any of the other top cryptocurrencies today will be the winning token. It could be another of the thousands presently in existence, or one that hasn’t been digitally minted yet. Early leaders often don’t finish the race well. As Zweig wrote: “We don’t Excite or Infoseek or WebCrawler; we google. Those search engines were born before Google, but only the latecomer became so universal it turned into a verb. And we do our googling not on a device made by MITS or Imsai or Cromemco or Commodore, but on an iPhone or an Android, a Mac or a Windows machine.”

If early leaders always won, we would all have had Betamax players in the 1980s and Laserdiscs in the 1990s before moving on to HD DVDs. You would be reading this article on your PalmPilot, which you would also use to connect with old pals on Friendster and watch your Research In Motion[ii] and Nokia stock go through the roof. That PalmPilot’s user interface would be Visi On mobile. Tesla beating out later-arriving electric vehicle competitors is the exception, not the rule—and even that competition looks to be gaining steam as more and more companies enter the market.

Yes, whichever technology—and company (or companies)—ends up solving the Earth’s long-term clean energy needs, it will probably make a boodle for early investors. Perhaps Messrs. Bezos and Gates will add to their personal fortunes. Or perhaps they picked wrong and will take losses while someone else enjoys the ride. They have the bandwidth to take this level of risk because they have already made their bazillions. They are (presumably) not trying to fund retirements and ensure they have enough to cover late-life medical expenses. Their financial situation is not your financial situation. Their goals are not your goals. And their ability to take a big loss on a far-fetched technology is divorced from your personal considerations.

But this doesn’t mean retail investors lose out on technological advancements—far from it. Successful startups eventually go public and have a long history of continuing to generate returns for investors after that. Plus, already-public companies regularly adopt new technologies over time, using them to get more efficient and develop new business lines—all of which add to earnings. Simply owning stocks has always been a marvelous way for us normal folks to keep up with the technological times."

MY COMMENT

A very good lesson here in this little article. Trying to identify and invest in the NEXT GREAT THING is nearly impossible You will simple LOSE much more often than you will win. It is a form of gambling and trying to hit the jackpot. It RARELY works out.

This is one reason for how I invest in the types of companies that I hold in my Model Portfolio. I try to identify the BIG DOMINANT companies.....early enough in their life that they have a big future ahead of them. BUT.......I wait till the handwriting is on the wall. Till the PROBABILITY is very high that the company will be a long term dominant company. I dont have to get in at the very begining....there is plenty of money to be made if you can get in early.....but NOT too early. I prefer to moderate the risk and boost the potential for gain by waiting till the future is......"PROBABLY" CLEAR.....on any company that I buy. Of course this strategy variation on BIG CAP investing....requires a realistic, rational, and valid view of business and probability.

 

This is the perfect example of FED EGO MANIA. Members of the FED get fawned over by the media......hanging on every word.....asking for commentary.....and they can NOT resist the feeling of being a celebrity. NO....I am not going to post this article......the headline says it all.

These people are not helping anything other than their own EGO.....they need to STFU.

Bullard says high inflation warrants faster hiking: CNBC

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bullard-sequence-high-u-inflation-141415569.html

 

NOTHING.....to see in the markets today for me. They are overwhelmed by short term events and drama. The current short term environment is simply......a waste of time for long term investors. Typical of the short term.......a lot of which is simply a waiting game for longer term investors. BUT.....market timing being impossible and a sure way to NOT keep up with or beat the long term averages........I simply sit and wait.

I continue to be fully invested for the long term as usual.

 

I just left my portfolio on its own today and paid ZERO attention to the markets. I can do that as a long term investor.

In the end it turned out to be a good day for me.....I had a moderate gain today. All my stocks were in the green except for.....Microsoft, Honeywell, and Costco. I even managed to get in a pretty good beat on the SP500 by 0.88% today.

I consider today a nice VICTORY considering how the day was looking when I gave up to play Contractor on my home projects for the rest of the day.

 

HERE is how the general markets were impacted today by the TWIN story lines.......the FED......and....RUSSIA, RUSSIA, RUSSIA. Neither of which I care about in the slightest as an investor.

Stock market news live updates: Stocks drop as Russia-Ukraine conflict concerns rise

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-february-14-2022-123442242.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Stocks fell Monday as investors eyed the escalating threat of Russian invasion in Ukraine alongside ongoing concerns over inflation and an aggressive move toward policy tightening by the Federal Reserve.

The S&P 500 came off session lows but still ended in the red to extend losses after last week's roller-coaster sessions on Thursday and Friday. Treasury yields rose and the 10-year yield hovered back near 2%. The latest leg lower came after the Wall Street Journal reported the U.S. was closing its embassy in Kyiv and destroying networking and computer equipment, with concerns over a Russian military attack mounting.

Markets have been whipsawed in recent sessions by conflicting signals over the immediacy of a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine. Earlier, Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said he was urging Russian President Vladimir Putin to continue diplomatic talks. This came less than a day after U.S. officials signaled Russia could be nearing the launch of an invasion of Ukraine as soon as this week. National Security adviser Jake Sullivan told CNN on Sunday that "a major military action could begin by Russia in Ukraine any day now," though the U.S. was still hoping for a diplomatic resolution. And these remarks in turn came after President Joe Biden held a phone call with Vladimir Putin on Saturday warning that the U.S. and its allies would "impose swift and severe costs" on Russia in the event of a military attack in Ukraine.

Oil prices rose to build on gains after a recent run-up as Russia-Ukraine tensions remained in focus. West Texas intermediate crude oil futures (CL=F) jumped above $95 per barrel for the first time since 2014. U.S. crude prices have already jumped more than 20% for the year-to-date. Brent crude (BZ=F), the international standard, drifted above $95 per barrel. With oil prices elevated, the S&P 500 energy sector has far outperformed the other major S&P 500 sectors for the year-to-date, climbing more than 26% versus the broader market's 7% drop.

Further upside in energy prices in response to the Russia and Ukraine conflict would depend on the timing of any attack and the contours of any U.S. response toward Russia, one of the world's key oil exporters, some analysts noted.

"It all comes down to how much of their supply is actually impacted by an invasion, and that's not entirely clear. There are estimates that are saying crude could go to $120 a barrel if we get an invasion," Rebecca Babin, CIBC Private Wealth U.S. senior energy trader, told Yahoo Finance Live about Brent crude prices. "I say we top out at probably just around $100 because I do think that there will not be as strict of sanctions as the market fears because ultimately, that hurts the US and our allies almost as much as it hurts Russia."

For equity markets, however, the geopolitical conflict may compound volatility already stirred up by investors jittery over the potential for the Fed to tighten monetary policy aggressively in the near-term. With inflation running at a 40-year high and the labor market on solid ground, investors are largely expecting the Fed to raise benchmark interest rates between five and seven times this year.

Conflict in Ukraine "could actually build the worst-case scenario for the Fed, in the sense that you could see energy prices move higher, [and] if you start to see gasoline prices go north of $4 per gallon, I think that could crimp consumer spending," Larry Adam, Raymond James chief investment officer, told Yahoo Finance Live. "And then obviously, if energy prices go higher, that could lead to further inflationary pressures. And that could be a double-edged sword that the Fed could be challenged by."

Later this week, investors are set to receive another batch of earnings results from companies including Airbnb (ABNB), DoorDash (DASH), Walmart (WMT) and Roku (ROKU). Economic data reports will include the Commerce Department's January retail sales report, which is likely to show sales rebounded in January after dipping in December.

12:02 p.m. ET: Peloton shares drop as new CEO says pushes back on near-term sale: Financial Times

Shares of Peloton (PTON) dropped Monday after newly installed CEO Barry McCarthy suggested to the Financial Times that a near-term sale of the company was unlikely to occur.

McCarthy, who is moving to New York from California for his new role leading the connected fitness company, told the media outlet, "If I thought it was likely that the business was going to be acquired in the foreseeable future, I can't imagine it would be a rational act to move across the country."

The remarks follow weeks of speculation and separate reports that companies including Amazon and Nike were considering purchasing the company. Peloton shares have fallen 5.4% for the year-to-date and 78% over the past year.

10:51 a.m. ET: 'We might have to get used to a protracted period of time where we have uncertainty around Russia': Strategist

Markets have been whipsawed by emerging headlines around the Russia and Ukraine conflict in the past week — and investors may need to prepare for a more extended period of uncertainty about the geopolitical situation, according to at least one strategist.

"I think it's a major concern. I don't think we're going to war any time soon. I think Russia is going to want to go ahead and essentially dance along with us," David Tawil, ProChain Capital President, told Yahoo Finance Live on Monday. "And I think there's the point where we might have to get used to a protracted period of time where we have uncertainty around Russia, around Ukraine, around a lot of commodities for those reasons. Much like COVID, we may have to go ahead and live with this for an extended period of time."

"That will not be taken well by the markets in the short-term, but I think over the long-term, we will go ahead and digest that and go ahead and move on," he added."

MY COMMENT

YEP.....nothing new today....again. Investors just have to get used to the FACT that we might have to sit through a lingering.....SAD.....market for a while with the averages in the negative. The key word is.....PATIENCE. Many investors have gotten spoiled by the continuous upward movement of stocks for years now. I suspect we will see some people get tired of just lingering in the negatives and BAIL on the markets. This is how it works for long term investors. Markets that are challenging and BORING are a TEST. You pass that test by siting and simply doing nothing.

 

RUSSIA, RUSSIA, RUSSIA..........never mind. If this story peters out it will be an EPIC example of media fear mongering. it will also be a nice little story of government in action......and I dont mean in a good way. Either way I will take it.

I will also take it if Ukraine happens to be invaded. This is a way overblown story either way.

I will take it for today....at least. The markets are UP nicely on the SLIM news of some Russian troops being pulled back. ALL the big averages are nicely positive so far today. Round and round we go......where we close nobody knows.