Top of the morning Stockaholics! Happy Friday to all of you! And welcome to the final trading day of this week and a frrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrresh start! Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little over 2 hours from the cash market open. GLTA on this Friday, February the 18th, 2022.
REMINDER: U.S. CASH MARKET IS CLOSED THIS COMING MONDAY, FEBRUARY 21ST, 2022 IN OBSERVANCE OF PRESIDENT'S DAY. (Globex futures will operate on an abbreviated session on Monday. Opening at the normal 6pm eastern time on Sunday evening, then halting at 1pm eastern time on Monday afternoon, before resuming at 6pm eastern time that evening). Enjoy the long 3-day weekend everyone!
Bond yields down again. Although most stocks are in the red this year, many of them at least have held above January's low. As for this week, it has been sideways. But if that holds then today shouldn't go down much. And in fact if we get more than +0.50% up then 3-out-of-4 weeks will be green in SPX and NDX. Granted, not very green. See if this week's low SPX~4360 can hold.
wish i could monitor the market a lot more like the "heydays" back in the 2010s but sadly going through a bit of a rough patch in the IRL atm. won't get into too much details of that as it's entirely off-topic in here anyway. but will just say that it has nothing to do with anything market/trading related, but everything to with an uncle i have that is barely holding on to dear life due to a collapse he suffered in his home last friday. while knock on wood his situation a bit better today, but still in a world of hurt if you will. would send a picture in here, but his knee is completely fucked up. not even sure if he'll ever be able to walk again. he's a bit of a heavy set so not too optimistic there. needless to say, it has def. taken my attention and interest away from the market action of lately tbh which just really sucks hard as i've been waiting for this kind of market volatility for such a long while now, especially after last year's largely mundane market year we had which i honestly thought was one of the most boring years i've ever witnessed lol... :/ is sad too cause i feel like i've had maybe my best trade in years here, but feel like with the IRL situation going through such shit lately kinda cancels out my big short futures trade, what honestly normally should be a very joyous time for me right now, but not with the crap i've had to deal with in the IRL of late.. anyway, just real quickly here as i hate to discuss things that isn't even market related (my suuuuuper apologies for that in advance here btw!). looks like /ESH22 still shy of its contract low from last month. Missed it about around 20 handles or so it looks like. not too sure if that could be deemed as a "successful retest of the lows" if you will. but could be close enough for some. but i'm still thinking a run for that correction low, and even taking it out some will be had here eventually. but, it could be a process to get there. as i don't feel like it'll just happen in a one fell swooping kinda move if you will. though yes, it got a bit closer today fo 'sho. thinking i might just take the profits around there and run with it. while my hunch still thinks far lower prices ahead this year. but, may re-enter on a good ded cat bounce and just ride the next leg down to the new low of the move. this is def. rare territory for me for sure as i hardly hold futures contracts for longer than a day or so. but, sadly just no time to watch the action of late anymore. hope y'all's had a terrific week here and will enjoy your long weekend ahead!
here's a quick sneak peek at next week's anticipated ERs (remember markets closed on monday for presidents day).
thx as always @Value543 re: taking profits. nah, shamefully i did not cause truthfully my convictions for further downside remains in tact and still as pretty sky high conviction levels if you will. truthfully i haven't had these conviction feelings quite this strong since dating back pre-GFC (great financial crisis of 2008) tbh lol. though the closer we get to retesting this spuz contract low (which actually is in about another 100 handles lower from current levels here) then i think i'll be looking for a full exit and will just maybe take the rest of my year off from trading entirely, as admittedly that'll make my year tbh. not looking to be overly greedy here lol, as we all know well how that can go sometimes when we don't take advantage of seizing on the opportunity when it presents itself. which i feel we're getting pretty doggone close for me here at least. but i'm being super duper patient with this. (well i really have no other choice but to since my "IRL" situation is pretty dogshit right now tbh ) anyway, hope y'all's are enjoying your extended weekends here! should be another interesting one in market land this holiday-shortened trading week ahead haha. remember that cash markets are closed today, but globex remains open until 1pm eastern time where it will halt trading for 5 hours, until 6pm eastern time for the reopen.
hearing some rumors here of a possible lock limit down scenario in the futures overnight tonight. not sure if we'll see that but, thinking the moves in the spuz could be rather large. but i'm more curious what oil and gold will do. wondering if we'll see the triple digits on the /CL soon lol. meanwhile, thinking i may close this out off tonight possibly. here's where i'm at on the spuz short as of right now. thinking this could maybe double if a limit down scenario. we shall see. like i said, i'm not greedy though so could just take my profits and run with it and just be done with trading for this year at least haha. we'll let y'all's know if i do (probably will). should be an interesting overnight and day tomorrow haha.
Up until Putin's decision to send troops into eastern separatist areas of Ukraine, I would've said metered fear based on the chance (hope) of a Biden-Putin meeting. However, now that we're seeing follow-through in those troop movements, I suspect tomorrow will be a wild ride down. In addition, Bitcoin's fall signals tech is going to take another beating. Stay safe out there!
Top of the morning Stockaholics! Happy Tuesday to all of you! And welcome to the new trading week and a frrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrresh start! Here is a quick check on those futures as we are about 4 hours from the cash market open. GLTA on this Tuesday, February the 22nd, 2022.
Futures don't look too bleak. I think a lot of the downside has been "priced in". Remember, unfortunately war is extremely profitable. Less than an hour and a half since @bearmarketcrash's post and the market's recovering a bit already. Obviously there's more room to the downside, but I don't think it's gonna be a halt-type day.
The pre-market thread is now up on Reddit for anyone looking for a quick read before today's cash market open. GL to y'all's trading on this Tuesday, February the 22nd! https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/synkl5/222_tuesdays_premarket_stock_movers_news/ <- click there to open!
Morning Lineup - 2/22/22 - Geopolitics Takes Over Tue, Feb 22, 2022 Today marks the 42nd anniversary of the 'Miracle on Ice' when the US men's Olympic ice hockey team stunned the world with an upset over Russia and Al Michaels uttered the now-famous question "Do you believe in miracles?" The investment community is hoping for its own miracle in Ukraine this morning as geopolitical concerns regarding a potential Russian invasion roil markets. Futures have been lower ever since they opened for trading and Putin's speech yesterday that recognized separatist Ukrainian regions. Things could be worse, though, as futures currently trade well off their overnight lows as conditions remain fluid. It's a busy morning for data as we've already had a decent amount of earnings reports, including Home Depot (HD), which is trading down over 2.5%. On the economic calendar, later this morning we'll get flash readings on Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs from Markit along with Consumer Confidence and the Richmond Fed Taking a look at where the major indices stand heading into the week, the picture isn't pretty. Starting off with the Russell 2000 (IWM), which has been the weakest of the major indices, it is actually the least in danger of making an imminent lower low relative to January, even as it is down more than any of the other three. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) will likely open below its closing low from January this morning, and whether it takes out its intraday low remains to be seen. Lastly, the S&P 500 (SPY) will likely manage to open above its closing January low this morning, and we'll see how things play out from there. One question you may be asking yourself this morning is why the futures aren't trading even lower this morning. To help answer that question look no further than the charts below. As shown, stocks have already been selling off sharply heading into this weekend's events, and while we wouldn't go as far as to say that a Russian move into Ukraine is fully priced in, markets have been anticipating this for the last several weeks.
btw, just a quick fyi in here as i only have a very short time to look at the market here. am targeting a retest of the globex overnight low in the spuz H22 contract at 4250. that'll be the area i'll look to exit my short. not sure if we get there today though. while i still think a retest of the correction lows closer to 4200 is still forthcoming, ima just profit take while i can and call it a year on the trade front this year haha. hope everyone's having a pretty decent start to this holiday-shortened trading week here.
aaaaand i'm out. stop hit at 4265. kept it very tight on that move lower there but no worries haha. i might count that as a "successful" retest of the overnight low there. could still head lower but ima just take my profits and run with it while i can haha. not a bad short trade eh haha. #feelsgood although i think the lows are hardly in on the year in this market. i probably won't place another trade this year but we'll see.
