What, u mean we don’t ALWAYS make money every year in the stock market?? Why do I always get the memo LAST??? Nice to see all sectors being punished equally of late… it’s usually just me and I feel left out… how’s that for equality?? But I digress, we’re still only in February so although it seems that the end is near by the analysts we’re actually not really even paying attention
my wife would agree with you. we have a lowe's within walking distance of our house but need to drive to home depot. she says don't bother with lowe's because they won't have what we need. she's been correct lately.
I keep looking at this whole 'correction' and being very tempted to load up on stocks (to be clear, stocks on WXYZ's list, not just any stock.) To me this just seems like a good opportunity to buy at a discount. Do you guys agree or am I being crazy? I know WXYZ in particular has said multiple times that he doesn't do market timing... would this be considered market timing?
nobody can predict the future; if you are buying considering "tech analysis" terms maybe you're buying now on a suport zone (i'm talking not individual stocks but indexes such as nasdac p.e.) so the risk/reward may be decent, because you know when to bail out if things get nasty if you're buying on fundamental terms, considering the future value of each stock (like the ones in wxyz list) it is irrelevant buying today, tomorow or next week just my 2c
Mizugori Buying stocks and funds.......NOW..... at a big discount is what I would be doing if I had money that was not invested. BUT...it would have to be LONG TERM money....money that was going to stay in the stock markets for at the minimum 7 or more years. With what is going to happen over the next couple of months I would probably dollar cost average in about 1/2 now and the rest in about a month. Remember......what I post on here is NOT intended to be investing advice for anyone else. It is simply what I would do.
The markets are UP today....but backing off some from the open. It is nice to see some green in all the averages even if it does not stick for the whole day. Since I am IGNORING the markets and their IRRATIONAL short term behavior lately......for some reason......I got thinking about my MOM's stock portfolio this morning. She was my first investing mentor while growing up.....later on I took over the management of her portfolio when she could not do it herself due to old age. I have mentioned her many times in this thread. So......I got out my old file......here is an example of her BIG CAP portfolio. STOCKS ALTRIA CHEVRON APPLE COLGATE CONOCO COKE COSTCO GENERAL MILLS EXXON FORTUNE BRANDS HARRIS CORP INTEL IBM JOHNSON &JOHNSON KRAFT FOODS MONDELEZ NESTLE NIKE MERCK PEPSI PHILLIP MORRIS PROCTOR & GAMBLE 3M FUNDS DODGE AND COX STOCK FUND VANGUARD WELLINGTON FUND SP500 INDEX FUND FIDELITY CONTRA FUND The above is a snapshot of her portfolio in her later years. I tried to stay true to her investments in managing her portfolio and also keep things fairly conservative. She owned many of the stocks and funds above for a very long time. She also owned Fidelity Magellan fund during their glory days. As I managed her portfolio I eventually got rid of the oil companies except for Chevron.......I also eventually got rid of Merck. Other than those changes her portfolio remained like the above. At one time she did also own Microsoft....but it was all sold about 2002. So this is what a BIG CAP portfolio might have looked like in the......."OLD DAYS".
The markets have now gone flat and probably will turn red soon.....how we end the day....who knows. I am off to deal with my plumbers, shower glass man, and later my handy-man again.
At this pace with an imminent cyber attack hovering over our heads, u may not even have to think long enough before these stocks will magically appear or disappear in your trading account. And I’m not just writing this because I’m Emmett Kelly posting on Reddit
say what? they say imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. but, for the record, it ain't me. this is the only place is post.
I like this little article. The Likely Market Implications of Putin’s Latest Ukraine Gambit War is tragic, but regional conflicts have never been a bear market’s proximate cause. https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...-implications-of-putins-latest-ukraine-gambit (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Is the dam finally breaking? Over the long weekend, Russia disavowed Ukrainian sovereignty, formally recognized the country’s breakaway provinces—Luhansk and Donetsk—as independent states and sent troops into them. In response, the UK announced some sanctions, Germany officially abandoned its pursuit of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, and the US is reportedly prepping new sanctions of its own. Oil prices jumped closer to $100 a barrel, and as we write, the S&P 500 is down about -1.7% on the day—in correction territory from early January’s high. If markets close at present levels or lower, it will be this bull market’s first official correction—the first drop below -10% from the prior closing high. Stay cool. In our view, stocks are behaving as they normally do amid escalating geopolitical tensions. Regional conflict can hit sentiment and cause short-term declines, as it has this year. But there is a long history of regional conflicts, and none have been the proximate cause of a bear market. We don’t think this time is likely to prove different. Not that any of the present situation is good—it isn’t. War is tragic. Our hearts go out to the many Ukrainian people whose lives and property are at risk, and we hope conflict doesn’t escalate from here. Yet markets are cold-hearted and rational, so when assessing conflict’s impact on stocks, we think it is vital to be more detached and assess the facts. One tough fact Western pundits seem to broadly overlook: Russian presence in Luhansk and Donetsk—the two eastern Ukrainian provinces “President” Vladimir Putin recognized Monday—isn’t new. Russian soldiers reportedly entered these areas back in 2014, in unmarked combat fatigues, earning the moniker of “Putin’s little green men.” As many in the region reported at the time, they were offering support to “pro-Russian” separatist forces in these provinces as Russia executed its annexation of Crimea. As with Crimea, Putin argued these areas were much more ethnically Russian than western Ukraine, seemingly attempting to justify his actions on cultural grounds. Many observers in the US and Europe were surprised when Putin didn’t annex Donetsk and Luhansk as well as Crimea, instead settling for fomenting chaos and severing them from Kyiv’s oversight. Diplomatic recognition of Luhansk and Donetsk is noteworthy, but it—and the official statement Russian troops are headed into these regions—is tantamount to Russia formally admitting to its stance from the last eight years. Obviously, there are a lot of US political considerations to the above, as the current White House has a lot of overlap with the administration that dealt with this in 2014. We aren’t going to wade into any of that, and please understand that our analysis of this situation is nonpartisan—rather, we bring up the events of eight years ago to make a critical point for stocks: Markets move most on surprises, and nothing happening in Ukraine today is all that new or surprising. Stocks have known and dealt with the possibility of Putin carving up the country for many years now. Once official Russian troops amassed along the border, many started seeing formal activity in Luhansk and Donetsk as a foregone conclusion. The chief question was how much the West would stomach before applying economic pressure, and we are now getting some clarity on that. Where this goes precisely is unknowable. Maybe Russian troops will advance on Kyiv, maybe not. Some geopolitical analysts think Putin’s goal is to win a firm commitment to keep Ukraine out of NATO and the EU—perhaps that is true, and maybe that is the outcome. Yet we have also seen speculation that he wants more control of the supply chains for strategic gases and minerals that run through Ukraine, in order to have more leverage over Western militaries and the Tech industry. Some think any fighting would stay in Ukraine. Others think it would quickly ripple through Moldova to Eastern Europe. Some think tough Western sanctions won’t invite retaliation, as Russia’s government financing depends on selling oil and gas to Europe. Others disagree. In short, there are myriad possibilities, and the widespread discussion is helping markets deal with them. The more chatter there is now, the less surprise power there is if and when something worse occurs. Yet markets also move most on probabilities, not possibilities. Regional conflicts routinely drive localized economic problems in the areas around the fighting, and stocks are pricing that in accordingly. The MSCI Russia’s double-digit drop is evidence of that. But unless conflict goes global, the damage tends to be too small and localized to cause bear markets. Of all the conflicts since good S&P 500 data begin in 1925, only the advent of World War II caused a bear market. In 1938, we think stocks were recovering from the 1937 bear market, which erupted from misguided and harmful Fed policy. But when Nazi Germany annexed the Sudetenland (which was then part of Czechoslovakia), it forced markets to reckon with Hitler’s territorial ambitions and the mounting likelihood of war engulfing Continental Europe. Thus began a renewed bear market, which lasted until 1942. None of the many conflicts that marred the ensuing decades caused a bear market. Not the Korean War. Not the Cuban Missile Crisis. Not the Six Day War. Not the Iran/Iraq War. Not the first or second US wars in Iraq. Not the Balkan War. Not Israel’s conflict with Hezbollah. Not the Syrian Civil War. Not the US involvement in Libya or Afghanistan. And not Russia’s invasion and annexation of Crimea. In most of these instances, stocks tumbled as tensions escalated, but they began bouncing back as or shortly after fighting broke out. Not because armed combat is bullish, but because the fighting ended the uncertainty. When markets get clarity, even if what they see isn’t great, it lets them weigh the extent of the damage and move on. In this case, while this might sound cold to say, Ukraine’s investible market contains just two companies, and its GDP is just 0.2% of the world’s total. War ravaging the nation would be awful, but it takes trillions of dollars’ worth of damage to cause a global recession. Ukraine just isn’t big enough—nor are the surrounding former Soviet states that aren’t in NATO and therefore stand the highest likelihood of being drawn in. It won’t shock us if the announcement of US sanctions, possibility of escalating conflict and potential Russian economic retaliation draws out the volatility for a while longer. Brace yourself for that now—fearful headlines can trigger short-term reactions. But eventually that wears off and markets resume weighing fundamentals, coldly and rationally. As they do, we think they will see that the probability this spirals into a recession-inducing global conflict is exceedingly low. On the oil and gas front, we have already seen non-OPEC producers help mobilize a supply response, which should help take some of the sting out. Higher prices will likely bring even more US production back online. Commodity markets are fungible—when one supplier leaves a market, others take its place. That should keep Europe’s lights on, and spring’s approach should offer additional relief. We will continue watching things closely and will share updates and analysis as warranted. For now, take a deep breath, steel your nerves, and remember how markets work." MY COMMENT I dont see or hear any panic from anyone on here or anyone that I know in real life. If there are lurkers or readers on here that are starting to get nervous......consider your risk tolerance.....consider your portfolio and your goals......consider if you are really investing with long term money.
one big positive for using elipses is that is causes me to slow and read instead of blowing through a post. all i saw was emmett kelly posting on reddit.
Well I got my glass guy here and done. We had to change out the hardware on the frame-less glass shower enclosure.....to match our new hardware color in the master bath....matte black. The plumbers came just as they were leaving so it worked out well in terms of timing......otherwise we would have had five guys trying to work in there at the same time. I will be hanging out with the plumbers for the next 2-3 hours.
BUT......I do have time for one little post of an article that I think has good reasoning. We will know in the future if it was accurate or not. But....good food for thought. Although.....it does not really matter to me as a fully invested all the time investor.....why something is happening in the markets. it is......what it is. I dont have to now why. Weekly Market Pulse: Ukraine Isn’t The Problem https://alhambrapartners.com/2022/02/21/weekly-market-pulse-ukraine-isnt-the-problem/ (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "As I write this, the S&P 500 futures are down over 80 points, apparently in response to some rather harsh comments from Vladimir Putin concerning Ukraine. Russia recognized the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk, two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine that border Russia, and is apparently deploying troops in these regions. This is seen by the west as a precursor to a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. Given that Russia has been playing this game of cat and mouse in southern Ukraine for at least 20 years, I have my doubts but I suppose anything is possible. There is no doubt that anytime troops are deployed – and both Ukraine and Russia have had troops in these areas for a long time – there is the potential for an incident that leads to more than either side bargained for but absent that, I don’t see what Putin has to gain from a full-scale war. Taking and holding Kiev would be a very expensive proposition – in terms of casualties and treasure – and ultimately I doubt he could pull it off. But for now, everyone is on tenterhooks waiting to see what Putin will do next. I was asked by several people last week what I was doing with regard to Ukraine. I have to admit that I was more than a little baffled by this question. Is there something I’m supposed to be doing? What I wrote in that first paragraph is based on my own reading due to my personal interest in geopolitics. I find it interesting and read quite a lot on the topic. But I can’t predict what will happen there, what Putin will do, and what the consequences would be. Neither, I might add, can anyone in the Biden administration or the Trump administration before them. I can’t even say, with any conviction, how the Biden administration or our allies will react to this latest provocation. I know the US threatened economic sanctions in response to a full invasion but whether this qualifies or what impact those sanctions would have on the global economy I can’t say. I am aware, obviously, that Russia supplies a lot of natural gas to Europe and in the event of US sanctions this could impact Europe. I also know that there are so many LNG ships in the Atlantic right now that lease rates have collapsed (actually turned negative a couple of weeks back) so Russian threats to cut off Europe’s gas may not be much of a threat. The other big threat from a Russia/Ukraine war is, supposedly, a spike in crude oil prices. US sanctions would presumably include some ban on importing Russian oil but only about 11% of our energy imports come from Russia; 70% of Russia’s oil exports go to the Netherlands, Germany, Belarus, and Poland. If we stop importing Russian oil and oil products, someone else will surely step in to buy those barrels. And that will free up supply from some other region for the US. Oil is a global market and our sanctions would probably have little impact. That doesn’t mean that crude oil prices won’t continue to rise but if they do, I don’t think Russia will be the cause. Less than 1% of S&P 500 revenue comes from Ukraine/Russia so any direct impact on US companies – at least large US companies – is tiny. Higher oil prices could certainly impact the US and global economy but experience tells us that embargoes/sanctions are ineffective. Besides, high energy prices globally right now appear to have more to do with global environmental policies than anything going on with Ukraine. If high energy prices cause a recession in Europe or the US, there will be plenty of blame to go around although I’m sure Russia will be offered up as a very convenient scapegoat. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ are down in February (3.5% and 5.9% respectively) and for most of that time Ukraine has dominated the geopolitical news but that doesn’t mean the two are related. If stocks were selling off because of Ukraine, shouldn’t European shares be taking the brunt of the selling? Surely Germany and the rest of Europe would be more directly affected by a Russian invasion of Ukraine than the US. And yet, European stocks have outperformed US stocks since the end of January and YTD. Emerging market stocks, which would be severely impacted by a global economic slowdown, have outperformed both Europe and the US. There are plenty of reasons for US stocks to be selling off right now. Rising interest rates and the potential for a Fed policy error have been offered as reasons – excuses – for the selling but interest rates at current levels should not have much impact on valuations. Could the Fed hike rates so far they put us in a recession? Sure and that isn’t without precedent but if they do, I would expect the yield curve to invert first and while it has flattened quite a bit from its peak last year, it isn’t inverted. The volatility we’ve seen since the beginning of the year indicates that liquidity conditions have tightened somewhat but that is probably not a bad thing at this point. Volatility tends to reduce leverage in markets via Darwinian means, the weaker, more vulnerable players falling victim. The decimation of some of the former high flyers in the market is a healthy event; adding a dollop of sanity is not a bad thing and doesn’t necessarily bode ill for the market as a whole. Corrections like this reveal the weak links and allow you to upgrade your portfolio. The real reason for the selling, in my opinion, is that, if next year’s estimates are to be believed, earnings growth peaked in the 4th quarter. The blended earnings growth rate for Q4 is around 30% for the S&P 500 based on what’s been reported so far; revenue growth clocked in around 15.5%. For full year 2021, earnings growth looks to be around 47%. The problem is that earnings and revenue estimates for Q1, Q2, and calendar year 2022 are well below that rate. Earnings growth estimates for Q1, Q2, and calendar year are 5.2%, 4.7%, and 8.6% respectively. Revenue growth estimates are 10.3%, 8.6% and 8.1%. Those aren’t bad numbers but they are challenging for a market trading at 19 times those earnings estimates. With valuations high, the price for missing earnings estimates has been very high. Companies who have reported less than expected earnings have seen their stock prices fall precipitously, many times by 20% or more. I’ve been doing this a long time and I’ve never seen so many big moves based on earnings. According to Factset, the stock price move (up) for an earnings beat is just 1/4 of the 5-year average while the move for a miss (down) is nearly a quarter more. There have also been 55 companies – so far – in the S&P 500 that have lowered their future guidance. If you own one of those you know the impact; if you don’t count your blessings. High valuations are an indication of elevated risk and the evidence of that is written all over this market. One more interesting tidbit from earnings season; companies with greater than 50% of their revenue in the US saw average revenue growth of 13.2% while those with less than 50% of their revenue in the US saw revenue growth of 21.7%. I think that may explain why non-US shares are outperforming this year and may continue to do so. Because the US measures for containing COVID were less severe than the rest of the world, our economy recovered sooner. Now the rest of the world is finally coming fully out of their COVID protocols and allowing more economic activity. I think we may see some spike in services activity in the US post-omicron phase but I suspect it will pale in comparison to what the rest of the world enjoys. One more clue that Ukraine isn’t the problem it is being made out to be is the trading of the US dollar. The dollar has barely budged during this “crisis” and gold is up but whether that is due to Ukraine or slightly weakening US economic data is a tossup: Interest rates have pulled back some over the last two weeks but the trend is still up. With the dollar stable and rates rising around the world (it isn’t just a US phenomenon), the environment favors non-US stocks (slightly due to lower valuations) and general commodities. Bonds rose modestly last week and commodities squeaked out a gain but otherwise, it was red across the board. Emerging markets outperformed again last week and maintain their lead for the year, one of the few major assets up on the year. Value continues to outperform growth and that is true outside the US as well as inside. The only sector higher last week was consumer staples. Energy and financials remain the only sectors up on the year. Ukraine is not a good reason to make a change to your portfolio. You can’t predict it and even if you knew what Putin was going to do, you may not get the market reaction right. Geopolitics is interesting but it doesn’t generally have a long-lasting impact on markets (except for big long-term trends). The way to address geopolitics in your portfolio is through diversification. That’s why our portfolios always have a strategic allocation to gold and commodities. It’s one reason we always hold high quality bonds. I can’t predict when those assets will prove useful but history says they will. MY COMMENT I tend to agree with much of this little commentary. I do not agree with holding gold and commodities.....but that is an individual investor decision. We may be seeing some short term weakness due to Ukraine....but the next 2-4 months WILL be driven by the FED, rate increases, inflation, and the general reaction of the US economy to what the FED does.....especially any signs of recession. EARNINGS as this article says....will be a BIG FACTOR going forward....especially if we see them starting to slip in general. One good thing with Ukraine.....I doubt that there is much chance no for the FED to act aggressively. With this Ukraine situation I believe the FED will act very moderately and will only raise rates by 0.25% each time......and....will give themselves plenty of time between increases to evaluate what is going on in the world and in our economy. SO....basically....things will happen about the way I.....previously....... thought they would anyway.
Thank you as always for the responses (and all the content you post, which is extremely informative to me.) We have been looking into areas to try to buy a house, and Texas is definitely one of the top areas I would love to go but MAN, the property taxes and insurance are huge! At first I thought properties were actually quite affordable in TX compared to FL and other areas we have looked, because the base prices are 50-100k lower. But the taxes and insurance actually make them even higher. It's really hard right now. Looking for a basic 3/2 in a decent area (zoned to decent schools) and trying to keep the monthly payment 2k or less.
