Top of the morning Stockaholics! Happy Tuesday to all of you! And welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrresh start! Here is a quick check on those futures as we are under 3 hours from the cash market open. GLTA on this Tuesday, March the 8th, 2022.
looks like yellow knockin' on the door to ATHs here meanwhile, black gold lookin' like it wants a retest of sunday's globex ONH oh and speaking of ATHs, we now officially have one here in the national average pump price as it has now taken out the pre-Lehman highs here.
looks like a pretty widespread outage across amzn web services this afternoon. also things like discord, and some other sites i regular all went offline simultaneously. not sure what's up, and pretty sure this outage had nothing to do with it, but spuz reversed kinda hard off hod. crude also looked like it was headed for sub 120s then ripped a new one back up to 128 basically in a flash. never thought i'd see the day that oil moved like a friggin' bitcoin lmao.
Yeah as long as oil prices stay elevated I can see these renewables to outperform the market in the near term
I know lol crazy move for commodities lately. Nickel went crazy last night Russia: Nickel trading suspended in London after prices hit $100,000 (cnbc.com)
BYND still near 52 week lows Thought it would be doing better than it is doing right now since food shortage is a hot trade now
Top of the morning Stockaholics! Happy Hump Day to all of you! And welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrresh start! Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little over 4 hours from the cash market open. GLTA on this Wednesday, March the 9th, 2022.
Morning Lineup - 3/9/22 - Rally Day Wed, Mar 9, 2022 Equities are experiencing a monster rally this morning with S&P 500 futures up over 1.5% and the Nasdaq indicated to open higher by more than 2%. European stocks have rallied even more with Germany's DAX up nearly 5%! As we have pointed out several times over the last several weeks, though, futures are only telling us where the market is now, and where we finish the day can easily look a lot different than it does now. Take the current level of futures, for example. At the open today, the S&P 500 will still be trading below yesterday's afternoon high. We'll take what we can get, though. There's seemingly not much in the way of a catalyst that can be cited for this morning's move, but comments from a Russian spokesperson saying that Russia isn't looking to overthrow the Ukrainian government have been cited by some as contributing to the move. These types of comments have been common over the last two weeks, though, and they differ from what has actually been taking place on the ground in Ukraine. The only economic report on the calendar this morning is the JOLTS report, but it's a January report, so it won't be telling us anything we don't already know. Lastly, today marks the 13-year anniversary of the Financial Crisis low in March 2009, ending what was one of the worst bear markets in US history, and if you remember that day, there wasn't a lot of hope for investors as it looked like there was no way out for the market. The thing to remember regarding bear markets and market corrections, though, is that at the lows, the way out is never obvious. Energy stocks have had a rally this year that can only be described as insane. Over the last 50 trading days, the Energy sector ETF (XLE) is up over 40% while the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is down more than 11%. That works out to a spread of nearly 53 percentage points! Since XLE started trading in 1999, there has never been a 50-trading day period where the XLE outperformed SPY by as wide or wider of a margin. Looking at the above chart, it's hard not to argue that the Energy sector has massively gotten ahead of itself. 50 percentage points of outperformance in 50 days? Changing perspective a bit, though, shows just how depressed the Energy sector was relative to the rest of the market. The chart below shows the long-term relative strength of XLE versus SPY since the start of 1999. What a ride it's been! Basically from the time XLE started trading to mid-2008, it handily outperformed SPY, but in the 12 years that followed, XLE gave up all of its outperformance and more, only just recently getting back to even. Since the start of 1999, both ETFs have essentially experienced the same returns (+232% for XLE and +238% for SPY). So even after the recent surge in XLE, it is still slightly underperforming SPY over the last 23 years, and if you measure performance since the lows of the Financial crisis, SPY's performance is more than five times the return of XLE!
Happy Anniversary! Wed, Mar 9, 2022 Today marks the 13-year anniversary of the day when things got as bad as they can get for financial markets. After more than a year-long bear market which cut the value of the US stock market by over half, on 3/9/09, the S&P 500 closed at its lowest level since September 1996. A peak to trough haircut of more than 50% is enough, but bear markets are crueler than that, and this one was especially so. A case in point- on its way to zero in 2008, Lehman Brothers saw separate rallies of 24%, 53%, 26%, 70%, 34%, etc. and with each one, investors kept getting sucked back in thinking the worst was over. Now, replay that scenario with every other stock in the Financials sector and you start to get the picture. On a market-wide basis; in the two weeks after the 2008 Election, the S&P 500 dropped more than 20%. Then, as President-Elect Obama started to announce his cabinet, markets breathed a sigh of relief. The naming of Tim Geithner as Treasury Secretary elicited an especially strong response, and from late November through year-end 2008, stocks recovered and rallied more than 20%. It was a new bull market! But at the start of 2009, any hopes of an enduring rally quickly faded as the S&P 500 resumed its downward slide. As catastrophic as the stock market declines were, most Americans couldn’t be bothered with it, not because they weren't busy losing their shirts or retirement saving, but instead because they were too busy wondering if the ATMs would still be working tomorrow or where they would stay when their homes were foreclosed. We hear a lot of market people who consider making it through the COVID Crash as a badge of honor, but for the markets, COVID was just a bad month. The phrase gets tossed around a lot, but the period spanning the late 1990s through 2009 really was a lost decade for the US equity market and marked the first time since 1941 that the rolling 10-year return for the S&P 500 was negative. In the 1990s, we were all told that stocks only go higher over the long-term, but ten years later we had all just experienced the harsh reality first hand. If you lived through it, late 2008/early 2009 was as bad or close to as bad as it gets. Financial blood was in the streets and the bodies of failed banks and brokerages were piled up. By March 2009, no one even wanted to hear the word stock, and the mere mention of the stock market was enough to leave you by yourself at a party. As these things often work, March 2009 ended what was a nearly 13-year period of no gains in the stock market and the beginning of a nearly 13-year massive rally. There were bumps along the way, but they were mostly short-lived, and even after this year’s brutal start, the S&P 500 is still up over 500% from those lows. As much as sentiment has worsened and as painful as the declines from the January highs feel now, they are a blip when viewed in the context of the last 13 years. Just to put things in perspective, on Monday, the S&P 500 fell more than 2.95% for its worst one-day decline since October 2020. From September 2008 through March 2009, though, there were more than 30 one-day declines of 2.95%! For another example, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) closed above 30 for the 7th straight day on Tuesday, which is one of just 17 streaks where it has closed over 30 for seven or more days. On 3/9/09, though, the VIX closed at just under 50 in what was the 121st straight day of closes above 30 and ultimately the longest ever streak of closes above 30 (170). In other words, as bad as it feels now, things could get a lot worse. Conversely, whenever you hear someone say there’s no way out from here for equities, remember March 2009, March 2020 at the COVID lows, and every other bear market or correction low. The way out for the market was never obvious. It never is.
The pre-market thread is now up on Reddit for anyone looking for a quick read before today's cash market open. GL to y'all's trading on this Wednesday, March 9th! https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/ta84k8/39_wednesdays_premarket_stock_movers_news/
Happy 13-year anniversary to the GFC bear market bottom (on a closing basis) today. Here's a quick trip down memory lane. Had posted this vid over this past weekend but this was the cnbc vid i had recorded and uploaded to YT on that very day. Happy anniv.
Cool to see. I was trying to look up a stock chart for this, and found this instead: "the mainstream analysis continued to promote the narrative of a “Goldilocks Economy.” It wasn’t until December of 2008, when the economic data was negatively revised, the recession was revealed." So it seems there was a data revision done a whole year later.
Ok. Yesterday on that rally, I didn't exit for profit taking. But, this morning [Wednesday] with basically the same level of rally, I exited fully at SPX 4260 for profit taking and risk management. Hopefully, another good collapse and a re-entry for a few long positions. In and out. The name of the game in the current market, it seems. My account is at an all-time high. But, I want to focus on securing deeper profits. But, I've learned, you have to be careful with that--otherwise, you're spending a lot of time just trying to break even from a craziness in the market. But, trading skillfully is also a learning process.
SPX 4300 seems too high in this environment--I want something like 4100 or 4000, ideally, now for some long entries--but whatever the case, anything above 4200 seems non-appealiing to me
