good post gtrudeau88. In this particular case it shows that following a hard and fast rule to sell is not necessarily a good thing.
NO.....they will never be satisfied till the well is dry. $1,806,838,000,000: Federal Tax Collections Set Record Through February https://www.cnsnews.com/article/was...00-federal-tax-collections-set-record-through (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "CNSNews.com) - The federal government collected a record $1,806,838,000,000 in total taxes through the first five months of fiscal 2022 (October through February), according to the Monthly Treasury Statement released today. The record $1,806,838,000,000 in federal tax collections included $973,913,000,000 in individual income taxes; $577,666,000,000 in social insurance and retirement taxes; $117,072,000,000 in corporation income taxes; $40,408,000,000 in customs duties; $31,286,000,000 in excise taxes; $10,661,000,000 in estate and gift taxes; and $55,832,000,000 in what the Treasury statement calls “miscellaneous receipts.” While it was collecting its record $1,806,838,000,000 in total taxes in the first five months of fiscal 2022, the federal government was spending $2,282,422,000,000. That resulted in a deficit of $475,584,000,000. The highest federal tax collections in the first five months of any fiscal year before this fiscal year was in fiscal 2021, when the Treasury collected $1,549,388,770,000 in total taxes in constant February 2022 dollars. The $2,282,422,000,000 that the federal government spent in the first five months of this fiscal year was the second-most it has ever spent in that period. The most spending the federal government ever did in the first five months of the fiscal year was in fiscal 2021, when it spent $2,723,321,750,000 in constant February 2022 dollars. The Department of Health and Human Services led all federal departments and agencies in spending the first five months of this fiscal year. It spent $654,601,000,000 in that period, according to the Monthly Treasury Statement. The Social Security Administration was second. It spent $515,534,000,000. The Department of Defense-Military Programs was third. It spent $296,730,000,000. In the first five months of this fiscal year, the Treasury also spent $237,516,000,000 in interest on Treasury securities. (Historical dollar figures in this story were converted into February 2022 dollars using the Bureau of Labor Statistics inflation calculator.)" MY COMMENT Government in all forms........with their power to tax and charge fees......and the bureaucracy as an entity that serves them.....is a MONSTER. Never satisfied with what they take in and never satisfied with what they spend.
Thank you. Yeah, one needs to weigh everything before selling. Trouble is like I had with Novavax, not wanting to admit defeat and that you made a mistake and therefor holding a crap position too long and facing a much steeper loss than you should have. Part of making gains is knowing when to jump ship. I would think even a long term holder like yourself has to occasionally think in those terms.
Actually I think my recent purchase of ALK illustrates your point real well. I think ALK will stay down and maybe drop further due to the Russian invasion driving the cost of oil and therefor fuel. I think for imagined safety sakes due to the invasion, some Americans are probably skittish about traveling anyway. When/if oil comes down to earth again, we start entering peak travel season, and Covid becomes less of a concern, I think ALK will rise. My point is that I will have to tolerate poor (> 10% drop) or at best even performance, maybe for a while, before I see gains. I can live with that. But I won't put too much of the portfolio into ALK, just in case I'm wrong.
I'm fully invested for the long term. Every week I just keep on adding more to my stocks. I am not seeing prices or checking every day to see if I'm in the red since it don't matter to me. Long term for me is 3-5 years.
Does everyone here really thinks that the market today is a market you can compare to in the past? I personally don’t think so, but then again, I don’t have the history of investing to back that sentiment. The reason why I say this is because people keep bringing bear market retraction comparisons with what we’re experiencing now. i.e. dot com bubble and 2008 comparisons. I personally can’t see the comparisons no matter how hard I try. Both examples involved MAJOR events which led to a crash. One was relying on predominately non existent start up companies which were heavily speculated on with real capital. The other was a near complete death of the housing market. But what we’re experiencing today is market correction which is largely attributed to inflation, which alarming as it is, doesn’t compare to those two big events mentioned above. At least not with these reported numbers of inflation/rate hikes. I think that the market now is a different animal than from years past. It’s much much larger and has MANY more components. All of which will make it almost impossible to retract or grow in unison. So to give an example, those who think that a great deal of the market didn’t suffer even last year in certain investing trends/market components probably hasn’t realized that it did. Meme stocks, crypto affiliates, biotech, spacs.. those are all sectors of the market that dropped near bottom at some point, some never to recover. So that leads me to believe that the fundamental, more secure components of the market has endured through those volatile declining trends, and, also “miraculously” expanded. So that got me to wonder, maybe now that the market is larger than ever before and not tied to one/very few MAJOR leading/declining sectors, it will also behave differently during downturns.
I have something interesting to share. I took over control of my IRA after 3/31/21 and I decided to see how my all of my picks fared since then. I've been a lot more cautious with my IRA than I had been with my old stock account (where I lost mucho $ on NVAX for example) and I think I'm up about 18% since I took it over (hard to say with precision since I had a small withdraw mid-summer). A word about the list below. the * indicate the relative size of the position in the portfolio. * indicates a very small %, sometimes it was only a small handful of shares. 1.8K worth of AAPL is the biggest of the "*". ** indicates up to say 10% of the portfolio, *** is 10% on up. VOO and EQT get **** because of a 55% and 45% chunk of portfolio respectively. Also, anything with a "down" or "up" is currently in the portfolio. Lastly I have included dividends when calculating the % gain or loss. I'm pretty happy. For one thing I've kept losses from being deep. I've also managed to pick more winners than losers and I've had some really good wins. One thing I've learned is that keeping $ in index based ETFs is unwise when we're in a correction. I think I could have had a bigger gain out of VOO had I pulled out say end of Jan when it was fairly clear we were in a correction. I should have then done research into stocks that were still doing OK and put something into those. Losers ** TRTN – lost 5.1% * AAPL – lost 7.5% ** GLO – lost 0.17% *** GM – lost 8.1% * MU – lost 10.1% * SABR – lost 5.9% *** NOC – lost 7.7% *** GD – lost 7.2% *** ALK – down 0.84% Winners ** KLIC – gain 20.7% *** LOW – gain 22% ** GOF – gain 1.3% ** RIO – gain 6.1% *** AMZN – gain 3.8% *** IVV – gain 2.49% **** VOO – gain 2.4% *** DE – gain 3.2% * ENB – gain 1.8% ** CR – gain 0.7% ** SHW ‘- gain 0.35% **** EQT – up 27.9% *** MOS – up 1.24% *** OXY – up 1.79%
The world is an utterly different place, being so global and technology driven as it is. No event is going to generate the exact same result as a similar event from years ago. It can't. It doesn't mean we can't learn from the past but we can't ever assume x from years ago = x today.
Well to contribute to the above discussion of bear markets. Every bear market has a different cause. In 2020 we had a bear market caused by a world wide panic over Covid and the steps implemented by governments to deal with it. In 2008/2009 it was the.....barely averted......collapse of the banking system and the entire economy. In the dot-com crash.....it was a confluence of events........the out of control fraud and rampant speculating in internet companies......the antitrust suit against Microsoft......the collapse of Enron and all that surrounded it.......out of control mass buying of stocks by day traders and speculators.....etc, etc. We had a bear market in 1987 due to the collapse of a hedging strategy called "Portfolio Insurance".....and....margin calls.....computer trading confusion, etc, etc. In the 1970's and early 1980's it was a combination of inflation....the oil crisis.....the political events like Watergate......stagflation......the policies and incompetence of Jimmy Carter....etc, etc. these events contributed to numerous bear markets between the early 1970's and early 1980's......or if you wish.......a bear market environment for that entire length of time. I am also sure that the Nixon disconnect of the dollar from gold had a big impact in there. The point is there is no cookie cutter reason or formula for why bear markets happen. Usually they are a result of numerous world event type factors along with various economic factors. They often include irrational and speculative trading......but.....that is not a necessary component. They are often caused or contributed to by government policies and/or the actions of the FED. In short there is NO common cause......other than in general.....world events, economic events, speculation, and government actions or lack of action. Because there is no common cause there is no common cure. I would say that the most SIMILAR bear market in the past to today....was the Jimmy Carter era with stagflation....but again.....no two are the same. My view is that in reality........it is always a minority of stocks that are the market leaders. In my view the markets and investor behaviors remain.......generally...... the same. Of course.....I dont believe in NEW NORMALS. What counts for me as a long term investor is the long term gains that are inherent in the averages and the leading BIG CAP GROWTH stocks that I invest in. I dont care when or if we have corrections or bear markets and I dont try to anticipate or identify or trade them. In my view the tried and true traits of successful investing remain the same. AND.....unfortunately for the majority of people that LAG the averages in their returns.......the traits of UNSUCCESSFUL investors remain the same.
Lets talk about RECESSIONS along with the above discussion on bear markets. Here are some current views. Recession: Here's what some top minds are saying https://finance.yahoo.com/news/recession-heres-what-some-top-minds-are-saying-173445888.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Queue the long-dormant U.S. recession chatter, with good reason. Brent crude oil prices traded around $112 a barrel Friday as traders continued to digest the Biden administration's ban of imports of Russian oil, liquefied natural gas, and coal in response to the country's war on Ukraine. Some on the Street have warned oil prices could surge to $200 a barrel. Prices are off their highs of nearly $139 a barrel on optimism U.S. oil majors such as Exxon and Chevron will produce more to make up for any lost Russian output. Oil prices have surged roughly 23% since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Meanwhile, prices at U.S. gas pumps have skyrocketed above $4 a gallon on average, notes AAA. Prices have climbed north of $5 a gallon in California. In Los Angeles, one gas station was charging almost $8 a gallon for premium unleaded reports The Daily Mail. And last but not least, the Fed is likely to start raising interest rates this month to cool inflation. With all of that in mind, here's what some top minds in business have said about the odds for a U.S. recession. Jan Hatzius, Chief Economist at Goldman Sachs "We now see the risk that the U.S. enters a recession during the next year as broadly in line with the 20-35% odds currently implied by models based on the slope of the yield curve," said Hatzius in a new note to clients. The top Wall Street strategist cut his 2022 U.S. GDP forecast to a growth of 1.75% from 2% previously. Consensus estimates are looking for a 2.7% increase. Brad Jacobs, CEO of XPO Logistics "I have seen a few recessions over my career and they aren't fun," Jacobs said on Yahoo Finance Live. "I don't know that we are close to a recession. Right now the consumer is very, very strong and the industrial economy is in its early beginnings of growth. We do have to watch the effect of the European war and how that affects the world economy. We do have to look at how oil prices affect the world. And we do have to see how the Fed lands the plane in terms of raising interest rates in a careful way. But we are not close to a recession, absent some big geopolitical jolt. There is too much strength in the economy right now." Ethan Harris, Bank of America Global Economist "We will get a lot more worried if we see two kinds of developments. First, under our 'pessimistic' scenario with a major cut-off of Russian energy, we could see oil market prices spiking to $175/bbl and averaging $130/bbl for the year. Second, if inflation stays too high for too long central banks could get serious about fighting inflation. At this stage it looks like both the Fed and the ECB will hike rates closer to neutral but will not move significantly into tight territory. Combining a major oil shock with serious policy tightening implies a serious risk of recession," Harris penned in a new client note. Joanne Feeney, Advisors Capital Management Portfolio Manager "We are moving into a year which is further in the time from the worst of the pandemic. So we know growth is going to slow down just because of that. On the other hand, we have high inflation, we have the fiscal stimulus coming off and so consumers are facing a bit of a doubleheader of headwinds. So that is going to tamp down consumer demand into this year. And then we have the Fed raising interest rates. So we have three things conspiring to reduce production this year and weaken economic growth. As an economist, I can tell you we are seeing certainly slowing growth this year. But we don't see a recession. The reason for that is because on the supply side, we have a lot still coming back online after the pandemic and we have a new stock of semiconductors ready to come out in the second half of the year," Feeney said on Yahoo Finance Live." MY COMMENT Recessions to me are like corrections and bear markets. They are normal and are going to happen once in a while. Just part of the reality of being an investor. Will we slip into recession? I dont think so...but if we do the FED will be a big part of the reason. If they raise rates too aggressively to fight inflation that is supply/demand caused they will kill the economy and do little to stop the inflation. In other words.....stagflation. I still see the dominant underlying economic condition as DEFLATION.
#10031 - Super post! I guess the point I was trying to make is how many components of the market have collapsed in the past 1-2 yrs (memes/retail, bio, spacs etc) WITHOUT taking down the entire market with them. Which would suggest a stronger than ever market. Curious if there was any time/times in the past where many sectors FAILED and didn’t take the market with them as well
And let’s not forget crypto/bit coin dropping more than 50% and NOT affecting the market. And we know how many traders nowadays are investing in that sector.
I think the primary reason that the markets have been resilient is due to the FACT that earnings......fundamentals.....over the past year or even two have been good.
The short term is always a wild ride. Especially now....with the 24/7 obsessive and opinion based news coverage that has engulfed even the financial media. Twenty to twenty five years ago the financial media was.....The Wall Street Journal, Investors Business Daily and a few weekly and monthly business magazines. Now......there has been an EXPLOSION of National Inquirer style media......constantly in your face and constantly sensationalizing EVERYTHING.
WOW.......my little area of 4200 homes in Central Texas.....is NOW up to NINE homes for sale. Wee went to an open house at one of them yesterday. A nice 3800 sqft house with a view. It is listed at $1.7MILLION. the open house was insane......very busy. the realtor......who used to live in our immediate neighborhood.....said the market is EXTREMELY HOT. They will be accepting offers till 4:00 today. Unfortunately for first time and more moderate buyers......ALL.....of the homes for sale in our area are between $1.1MILLION and $3MILLION. I noticed yesterday at the open house that all of the people looking at the house were in the 50-65 age range. If the houses get too expensive here it will change the character of this area.......from one of young families 25-40 years old) with kids......to an older demographic with older kids. Nine homes for sale is WAY BELOW what would be normal this time of the year. One of my siblings bought a house in our same area in 2012 for $289,000. Now that house would sell for $650,000 to $700,000. That is how much and how quickly this area is changing.
Yup. Here's sample headlines for an average week lately: Mon - Dow futures dropping as investors worry about inflation and the bite of sanctions against Russia Tue - Dow futures flat while investors wait for jobs report Wed - Dow futures rise after encouraging jobs report Thu - Dow futures flat as investors wait for Powell's comments to Congress Fri - Dow futures plummet after Powell's comments to Congress. Sanctions against Russia weaken investor confidence Mon - we're worried about inflation and the effect of sanctions. Tues - we're less concerned about inflation, even though inflation didn't change from the day before, because we have a jobs report coming that might prove interesting. Russian sanctions in the background Wed - we could care less about inflation because we have a good jobs report and that's way more important than inflation or the Russian sanctions. Thu - neither the jobs report or inflation seem to matter because Powell is going to reaffirm what he always says: "we're raising rates slightly to combat inflation". What's a Russia? Fri - Powell said exactly what he is paid to say and we knew he would say. That combined with us remembering what a Russia is, saps our confidence to the core. What I go digging for is the following: Mon - U.S. imposes sanctions on Russia. What does Russia sell to everyone else? Tue - Inflation highest level in 40 years. Who gets hurt and who doesn't? Wed - U.S. sending weapons and ammo to Ukraine. Here's who makes the weapons and ammo. Thu - U.S. and Canada potash companies unable to increase production to offset Russian sanctions. Farmers going to take a hit Fri - Putin gets plastered on bad vodka and accidently resigns. Ukraine and Russia reach peace agreement. I want news that gives me insight as to what is going to happen due to the events of the world today. Right now you have to dig on your own and really read between the lines to get at what's good...
Good one Gtrudeau88. personally I want news....TV and print.....that is FACTUAL and as devoid of the reporter's or anyone's personal opinions as possible.....especially their social, political, and cultural opinions. I realize this is now impossible and it will only continue to get worse and worse over time.....as usual. I also dont want "fact checking" or any other BS in my news sources......and......I dont want someone deciding to censor content that they do not like or agree with. Again......not going to happen in the current environment......or in the future.....as usual it will continue to get worse and worse over time.
Here is what we are looking at this week......as potential NON-FUNDAMENTAL market divers. Fed rate hike, PPI inflation, retail sales: What to watch this week https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-...-sales-what-to-watch-this-week-165908855.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "A pivotal few days are underway for investors expectantly watching the Federal Reserve this week as it tees up for a long-anticipated liftoff on interest rates likely to come Wednesday, following the central bank’s two-day policy-setting meeting. Possible revisions to its forecast on rate hiking plans will be on the radar as war in Eastern Europe hangs over the global economy. The latest print on producer prices and February retail sales are also on traders' agenda this week, along with some lingering earnings results from companies including FedEx (FDX) and GameStop (GME). Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has tempered worries around a hefty 50-basis point bump in rates this month, but escalating geopolitical tensions complicate the Fed’s path forward on taming inflation as the conflict introduces a new set of uncertainties for the U.S. economy. After Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled with unusual clarity in recent Congressional testimony that he supports an increase of 0.25% on short-term interest rates, investors may be little surprised by the outcome of the bank’s March 15-16 meeting. Instead, attention will be directed to possible changes to the Fed’s outlook on hiking plans for the rest of the year as Russia-Ukraine turmoil and resulting sanctions against Moscow roil markets. “The bottom line is we will proceed, but we will proceed carefully as we learn more about the implications of the Ukraine war,” Powell told the House Financial Services Committee on March 2. “The Fed’s job is not getting any easier,” said Aberdeen Standard Investments' senior global economist James McCann in a note. “Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sparked market turmoil and sent commodity prices soaring, both of which present headwinds to the economy.” Indeed, oil prices have surged roughly 23% since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Brent crude oil prices traded around $112 a barrel Friday, off highs of nearly $139 a barrel earlier in the week as investors continued to weigh the Biden administration’s ban on Russian energy imports. Some Wall Street strategists have warned prices could surge to $200 a barrel. “Higher energy and food prices will also exacerbate an already deeply uncomfortable inflation backdrop, and the Fed is unlikely to tell markets that it can slow its plans for policy tightening in the face of the worsening outlook,” McCann added. Although geopolitical risk has likely derailed the Fed from an aggressive double-bump this week, pressure is still on for the central bank to mitigate price levels that appear to show no signs of slowing. In February, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 7.9% compared to last year, marking the fastest annual jump since 1982 and surpassing January's previous rate of 7.5%. “The Fed will most likely raise rates at several meetings and start quantitative tightening (QT) as planned, but more extreme scenarios (50bp, inter-meeting, sharp QT) are out of the picture as the oil impact is being assessed,” Bank of America said in a recent note. Rising energy prices contributed to the latest CPI print. Oil and gas prices were already pressured by supply and demand imbalances even before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The energy index soared 3.5% in February to mark the largest monthly jump since October, and was up 25.6% over the last year. Further impacts from the crisis are expected to show up in the March CPI data. “We were expecting there to be improvements in supply chains, probably starting later this year,” U.S. Bank Chief Economist Tendayi Kapfidze told Yahoo Finance Live. “[The Russia-Ukraine conflict] puts into question some of the supply chain improvements that were supposed to lower inflation.” On the economic data front, traders will get another snapshot of the U.S. inflation picture this week from the Producer Price Index (PPI) due out Tuesday. The latest print on PPI, which like CPI serves as a gauge of changes in prices of goods and services but from the viewpoint of product-makers rather than consumers, is expected to show another red-hot figure as inflationary pressures and supply-chain snafus persist. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect a PPI, excluding food and energy, read of 8.7% for February, up from the already higher-than-expected 8.3% last month. Meanwhile on Wednesday, consensus economists are expecting to see retail sales excluding autos, released by the U.S. Census Bureau, to rise in February by 0.9% compared to January’s increase of 1.0%, according to Bloomberg data. Bank of America attributes the gain to spending on gas and food services. The institution anticipates, however, core control sales, which excludes gas, autos, building materials and food services, to fall by 0.5% month-over-month. Earnings season is winding down with a few more reports trickling in this week from names including shipping giant FedEx and meme-stock darling GameStop. FedEx is expected to report adjusted earnings of $4.65 per share on revenue of $23.44 billion after the bell Thursday. GameStop earnings per share are projected to come in at $0.84 per share on revenue of $2.23 billion also after Thursday’s close." MY COMMENT I see that NIKE is now scheduled to report on March 21, 2022 after the close. This week has VERY BIG potential to the negative side and to the positive side. ALL....of the events and reports this week are items that can significantly move the markets....especially to the negative. BUT.....all of these reports and events also have the power to move the markets positively......if they help to provide CLARITY and FACT rather than the fear of the unknown and speculation preceding the event.....especially the rate increase. So....unless someone has insider information.....there is no way to know how and why the markets will react. One thing is sure....it will be a GOOD THING to have the first rate increase over with and a clear path set out for the future rate increases. Once the actual event starts to happen........that WILL tend to take much of the fear of the unknown and speculation out of the markets. I am pulling for the events this week to end up being.........WAY LESS SIGNIFICANT......than the anticipation of the event. That will be a good thing for the markets.
