Top of the morning Stockaholics! Happy Thursday to all of you! And welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrresh start! Here is a quick check on those futures as we are under 4 hours from the cash market open. GLTA on this Thursday, March the 17th, 2022.
BTW, Happy St. Paddy's Day to ya'll's today! Just a quick bit of market stat came across on twitter just now. This day historically speaking since 1950 has been one of the most positives for the full year for the SPX as seen in this chart here: Be kinda cool to see another green on this day at least.
Morning Lineup - 3/17/22 - Better Than Expected Economic Data Thu, Mar 17, 2022 After two strong days, equities are experiencing a bit of a hangover this morning with futures lower across the board. There's been a lot of discussion concerning the equity market's wild swings following the announcement, with a sharp sell-off initially followed by a rebound that erased all the original post-FOMC losses. While the Fed's new projections for rate hikes were more hawkish than its prior forecast, the new numbers were essentially in line with what the market was already pricing in. Crude, which dropped more than 20% from its recent peak is bouncing back as WTI trades near $100 per barrel, and treasury yields pull back a bit. The 2s10s yield curve continued to flatten overnight, dropping back below 20 bps to new post-COVID lows. While markets rallied partly on hopes yesterday of a potential ceasefire in Russia, that optimism dried up this morning as the Kremlin says any reports of progress are 'wrong'. There's another busy day of economic data with Housing Starts, Building Permits, Philly Fed, and Jobless Claims all at 8:30, while Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization will be released 15 minutes before the opening bell. The 8:30 reports all came in better than expected, so we'll see if the 9:15 data can make it a perfect day. US stocks have enjoyed quite a rally over the last two trading days. The Nasdaq has rallied more than 2.5% on back-to-back trading days. That's an impressive streak and isn't all that common, although we would note that the last back-to-back run of 2.5%+ gains was less than two months ago in late January. Going back to 1996, this week's streak is just the 27th time the Nasdaq has rallied more than 2.5% on back-to-back trading days, but more often than not, these kinds of rallies have occurred during bear markets. Of the 27 prior steaks, 11 occurred during the dot-com bust from March 2000 through October 2002, and another four occurred during the financial crisis. Of the remaining 12 occurrences, seven occurred leading up to the March 2000 peak, three occurred between October 2002 and March 2003, and the last two have occurred since the start of 2020.
The pre-market thread is now up on the r/StockMarket subreddit for anyone looking for a quick read before today's cash market open. GL to y'all's trading on this St. Patrick's Day, March the 17th! https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/tg95n9/317_thursdays_premarket_stock_movers_news/
BTW, just a quick and final reminder in here for any of you's who may have missed the thread yesterday, but I've setup an NCAA bracket group for us for the March Madness tournament that begins at noon today. Y'all's will have until noon eastern today to get those brackets in! Here's the thread for anyone of you lookin' 'round for it. Would be kinda neat if more participated. Got a pretty decent participation in there so far haha. https://www.stockaholics.net/threads/2022-ncaa-march-madness-tournament-bracket-challenge.12716/ <- click that link there
I missed out on the March Madness thread, I would have loved to get into that. So far on the day I am still 4 for 4. Making a good amount of money on DraftKings lately. They offered a bonus on the Gonzaga game where if they beat Georgia State, you get 2:1 odds, so I dropped 30$ on that (the max was 50$ but I didnt have it at the time). So lets pray Gonzaga isnt the first upset of the day! Ive been very pleased with my decision to drop money into the market on Monday, after 11% gains it has me wanting to cash out but I do see room for more of a rebound. I think if it clear 15% profits, ill cash it out. Do you think the markets are going to continue this rebound? how much higher do you see it going? ... I see room for about another 10% but I am also nervous about a coming recession. Thoughts?
Veeerrrryyyy tempted to get back into SCO -- I'd probably stick to just that vs. also playing options as I did recently...but yea...I'd really like to see oil get back to $110+
I think I am going to dip my toe into the SCO pool. Looks like there is some potential there. Do you guys think the "Green" Movement will continue to naturally phase out oil? Oil makes me a bit nervous.
Top of the morning Stockaholics! Happy Friday to all of you! And welcome to the final trading day of the week and a frrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrresh start! Here is a quick check on those futures as we are just over 3 hours from the cash market open. GLTA on this Friday, March the 18th, 2022.
Morning Lineup - 3/18/22 - Finishing Up on a Down Note Fri, Mar 18, 2022 Early weakness in the futures yesterday gave way to the luck of the Irish as the major averages all closed sharply higher bringing the string of 1%+ gains for the S&P 500 up to three. Futures are a bit weaker this morning than they were at this time yesterday, so it may prove more difficult to turn the tide again today. This morning's call between Biden and Xi at 9 AM could be an important catalyst regarding how the war in Ukraine plays out. China has been more favorable to the Russian side and has ramped up criticism of the US in recent days, with some officials in Washington worried that the country will start providing direct assistance to Russia. The economic calendar is relatively quiet today with Existing Home Sales and Leading Indicators (both at 10 AM) the only reports on the calendar. St. Louis President James Bullard has already been out this morning saying he advocates a 3% Fed Funds rate by year-end and a more rapid reduction in the balance sheet. Movements in the crude oil market have been pretty nuts both recently and over the last two years. For starters, think about this. Over the last two years, crude oil has traded at both its lowest level EVER and within 12% of its highest price ever. 88% of its entire historical range in less than two years! Over a shorter time window, prices have also been volatile. For just the sixth different period since the early 1980s, WTI crude oil has seen its average daily move exceed 4% over the last 50 trading days. As shown in the chart below, the last 50 trading days join 1986, 1990, 2008, 2016, and 2020 as one of the most volatile two-month periods for the commodity on record. Not only has crude oil traded erratically, but the equity market’s reaction to moves in the crude oil market have also been hard to decipher. Take the equity market’s reaction to the daily moves on March 1st and yesterday. On both days, WTI rallied more than 8% and broke above $100 in the process. Yet on 3/1, the S&P 500 fell 1.55% in reaction to the move, while yesterday it rallied 1.23%. It just goes to show you that even if you could predict the future, knowing the market’s reaction would be far from a layup.
The pre-market thread is now up on the r/StockMarket subreddit for anyone looking for a quick read before today's cash market open. GL to y'all's trading on this final trading day of the week, March the 18th! https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/th06xv/318_fridays_premarket_stock_movers_news/
