The Long Term Investor

Speaking of BUFFETT above.

The Warren Buffett phrase that defines the market right now: Adam Dell

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-...the-market-right-now-adam-dell-144826420.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A, BRK-B) CEO Warren Buffett, the 91-year-old Oracle of Investing, has seen just about every type of market.

In 1999, at the height of the internet bubble, Buffett warned that investors expected unrealistic returns. In October 2008, the immediate aftermath of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, Buffett dismissed concerns about "the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies."

In turn, Buffett has a phrase that captures exactly what the market is experiencing right now, says venture capitalist Adam Dell, the founder and CEO of a new investing platform called Domain Money. Despite ups and downs in the market, its prospects remain bullish in the long run, especially for tech and cryptocurrencies, Dell said.

"Market volatility is one of the things that is inherent in our market," says Dell, who spoke to Yahoo Finance on Jan. 25, well before the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate on Wednesday. "Whenever you have such a large inflow of capital into a discrete number of assets, you're going to have significant swings."

"As Warren Buffett likes to say, 'The market is a voting machine in the short term and a weighing machine in the long term," adds Dell, the brother of Dell (DELL) CEO Michael Dell.

The three major indexes have climbed in recent days since the Federal Reserve announced a 0.25% hike of its benchmark interest rate. But each has fallen at least 5% since the outset of this year, a rocky start to 2020 that has seen volatility befall markets amid persistent inflation and lingering COVID-19 disruptions.

In early trading on Friday morning, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) and S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell slightly while the Nasdaq (^IXIC) ticked up.

Since 1965, Buffett has built textile company Berkshire Hathaway into a giant holding company, along the way popularizing the strategy of “value investing,” which identifies stocks trading at a price lower than their book value, and patiently waits for them to rise.

Late last month, Berkshire Hathaway reported almost $90 billion in profit over the course of 2021. In his annual letter to shareholders, Buffett pointed to "four giants" that have driven the company's success: its insurance operations, BNSF, Berkshire Hathaway Energy and its stake in Apple.

Dell, who departed Goldman Sachs last year after leading its online-only bank Marcus, echoed Buffett's signature long-term focus as he highlighted promising trends in tech and cryptocurrency.

"As I look at the long term trends, some of the free cash flow sources that are being spit out of some of the larger tech names, I'm quite bullish on their prospects going forward," he says.

"As it relates to cryptocurrencies, where we're focused, I look at the fundamental underlying components of blockchain technologies and their contribution to our financial markets," he adds."

MY COMMENT

The key factor for investors is......are you long term or are you short term. Virtually ALL the iconic investors that people look up to are LONG TERM INVESTORS. Can you think of a short term trader that is an iconic name around the country with investors? I cant. ALL the successful investors of the past 100 years have been people with two things......an ability to invest for the long term......and....an ability to buy REASONABLE, ICONIC companies and hold them for as long as possible.

As I like to say and similar to what BUFFETT says.......the long term market direction is always positive. of course that assumes.....that you are investing in great companies not taking a flyer on speculative and unproven "bets".

 

As usual your instincts as an investor are correct Zukodany. I attribute that to the fact that you are a long time successful businessman. Running a business successfully is a skill and a talent that translates well to investing.

The number one reason for investors to be UNSUCCESSFUL in general and NOT meet the gains of the averages is......human behavior.

 

This is one reason that inflation is not going to change any time soon.

‘Legendary’ consumer resilience in the face of inflation: Lands’ End CEO

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lege...ace-of-inflation-lands-end-ceo-154936842.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"With inflation setting a new 40-year high for the month of February, the Federal Reserve looks to pump the brakes on surging prices with the first rate increases since 2018. In light of these inflationary pressures, Lands' End (LE) CEO Jerome Griffith believes that the outlook for American consumers is optimistic.

“I think people are generally concerned about inflation out there. But at the same time, you know, people are still out spending,” he told Yahoo Finance Live. “The resiliency of the American consumer is, I think, sort of legendary. And depending on what's going on in the world, yes — things, from a demand standpoint, could change slightly. But I think overall, consumers want to still see positivity.”

Griffith joined Yahoo Finance Live to discuss fourth-quarter earnings for the company, pandemic shopping trends, inflation, and the road ahead in 2022 for consumer discretionary growth. Lands’ End reported financial results for Q4 2021 and the full 2021 fiscal year on Wednesday. The American clothing and home decor retailer saw net annual revenue increase 14.7% to $1.64 billion compared to $1.43 billion in the prior year.

Even in the face of 7.9% inflation, consumer demand remains strong, bolstered by record levels of e-commerce spending according to a report by Adobe (ADBE) Analytics. American consumers are expected to spend $1 trillion online this year, with this forecast representing an increase of 13% from 2021 and following a total spend of $1.7 trillion since March 2020.

Griffith said that demand for services like vacations have bounced back from pandemic lows as well. He noted the growth Lands’ End has been seeing in its product lines that are associated with travel.

“There's a lot of pent-up demand out there for people to go out and do things,” he said. “I can tell you that in our business-to-business portion of our firm, we're seeing — in the travel sector — big increases over where we were a year ago. Also, in our swimwear business and our athletic business, we're seeing big increases as well. We're still seeing big demand for products that people are going to go on vacation with.”

Some experts argue that consumers are positioned strongly amid inflation, geopolitical risks, and overall market turbulence. The personal savings rate dropped to 6.4% in January — lower than pre-pandemic levels — suggesting that Americans are tapping into the savings they accumulated throughout the pandemic.

Increasingly concurrently alongside the Consumer Price Index, however, is the Producer Price Index. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Tuesday that final demand prices moved up 10% on an unadjusted basis for the last 12 months ended in February, rising 0.8% over the previous month.

Griffith commented on the implications of rising producer costs on the consumer.

“We're seeing increased costs in raw materials, absolutely,” he said. “We're also seeing increased costs in transportation, though we think that that's transitory — yet, we don't believe that that's going to go back to 2019 levels. So obviously, there is going to be increases out there for the consumer in prices of products and energy. But we're concerned, but hopeful that that starts to slow down soon.”"

MY COMMENT

I see this strength here in my local area. Mainly as an indirect indicator seen through the booming housing market. It is simply AMAZING the money that is out there right now and how many people have money......big money. It is amazing to me the amount of income and money younger people seem to have to be able to afford very expensive homes. Over my earlier lifetime I have never seen an environment like this where so many people seem to have significant money and income.

Of course....consumer behavior can turn on a dime......but at the moment demand is super strong and shows no sign of abating. The supply/demand disruptions show no sign of abating.

 

This might be one thing that puts a CRIMP on some of the spending and demand.

Now's the time to pay off credit card debt before Fed hikes add up

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/credit-card-debt-before-fed-hikes-add-up-160247947.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"As Americans return to their old spending habits and ramp up credit card debt, they’re also amplifying their risk as interest rates rise.

Credit card bills grew at the fastest pace in 22 years in the last three months of 2021, with cardholders owing a collective $856 billion. Experts expect that to expand even more, with total debt to surpass pre-pandemic levels as Americans rely more on credit to compensate for higher consumer prices.

Those ballooning balances come as the Federal Reserve starts its rate-hiking campaign to combat rampant inflation, with the central bank this week raising a benchmark short-term interest rate by a quarter-point. That hike directly affects your credit card rate.

“For most people with debt, [the first rate hike] may end up adding $10 to $15 in interest over the life of the balance,” Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst for LendingTree, told Yahoo Money. “The bigger danger comes if the Fed starts raising rates several more times and by bigger amounts. That’s when things can start adding up for folks with credit card debt.”

Fed officials said “ongoing increases'' should be expected in the near future, with the central bank planning as many as six more rate hikes this year to pull inflation down to its 2% target.

So what does that mean dollar-wise for debtors?

Someone with the average credit card debt of $6,569 with a 15% APR making the minimum payment (based on 2% of the balance) would end up paying $10,129.70 in interest over the life of the loan. If that rate is 16.75% — rising after the potential six Fed rate increases — the interest over the life of the loan totals $13,484.15, or more than $3,000 more, according to the debt calculator from the nonprofit GreenPath.

You still have time. The first hike won't be reflected in your credit card rate until after 30 to 45 days. In the meantime, here’s how you can avoid getting caught in the interest rate increases to come.

Consider a 0% balance transfer card

One good tool for those struggling with debt is opting for a 0% balance transfer credit card, according to Schulz. These cards are widely available and many allow you to avoid paying interest on the transferred balances for up to 21 months.

While 0% balance transfer cards may look attractive for those carrying high interest rate debt, you must be disciplined in paying it off — or else you could end up compounding your debt problem.

“Balance transfers and introductory rates may help, but they can also get people into more trouble,” Rod Griffin, senior director of public education advocacy for Experian, told Yahoo Money. “I’m an example of that. When I was younger, I did a balance transfer from one account to max it out on an account with zero balance and low interest. Then, I had two accounts and maxed them both out.”

According to Griffin, before you opt for a balance transfer it’s critical that you understand the terms and conditions of your credit card. Most credit card issuers will impose a credit limit on the amount you can transfer and if you surpass that limit, it could negatively affect your credit score as it may increase the amount of available credit you use.

You could also be at greater risk to take on more debt and not be able to pay it off within your introductory timeframe, which could result in a higher interest rate than your original account.

“You have to know yourself,” Griffin said, “and if you’re tempted to use a card because now you have an available card and can’t resist temptation it may not be the right thing for you.”

Still, if you can at least minimize one high-balance credit card and you can be responsible for managing your debt – a 0% balance transfer could be a relief on your wallet.

“The best thing you can do is knock down that card debt as soon as possible,” Schulz said. “The possibility of going those 2 years without accruing interest on your balance is a really big deal. It can reduce the amount of interest that you pay over the life of that balance but it can also shorten the amount of time it takes to pay that balance down so that’s worth looking into.”

Ask for a lower interest rate

Another option that many credit card holders don’t think about is picking up the phone and asking their credit card issuer for a lower interest rate. According to a LendingTree report, only 27% of cardholders requested a lower APR rate last year, up from 25% in 2020.

“Around 83% of cardholders who asked for a lower APR rate last year were successful, but far too few people asked," Schulz said. “You don’t have to have perfect credit to get your way, so it’s definitely worth asking especially if you do have good credit."

Let your credit report be your guide

If you’re not sure where to get started as you manage your credit card debt, you can start by checking out your credit report.

“Take a look at your credit report, see the accounts you have and where your balances are,” Griffin said. “You need to know where you stand before you can do something about it.”

For example, Experian offers a free tool where you can view your credit score and keep track of your monthly credit report. According to Griffin, this can help credit card holders easily keep track of their spending and manage their debts.

No matter how you plan to tackle the debt, sooner is better than later, experts said.

“The fact that the Fed said it expects to raise rates another six times in 2022 adds even more urgency for cardholders,” said Schulz. “That would mean that credit card APRs would be nearly two percentage points higher at the end of the year than they were when the year began, and they were already really high to begin with. Factor in rapidly-growing inflation and that puts folks with debt in a really tough spot.”"

MY COMMENT

Credit card debt is now UBIQUITOUS. Most people have and use multiple credit cards. Back in the old days.....the 1970's.....I had a few gas company credit cards to use to buy gas but that was it.

Even though I was a business person in that era....I never had a credit card till I was 28 years old. I finally got one because I had to travel at times and needed one to rent a car. Till than I never had a card and many people I knew did not.

NOW....of course I have multiple cards......six or seven. I actually use two of them.....an AM EX card that gives me 6% cash back on groceries and 3% back on gas.....that is all I use that card for. AND I have a....... CITIBANK card that gives me 2% cash back. The rest of my cards sit locked up. All together I probably have about $150,000 of credit card limit that I do not use. One of the cards I have is so I can get a $100 companion fare on an air flight each year......my wife and I both have one of these cards.......one in each of our names.....so we can get 2 companion fares per year.

Of course I pay off the balance every month.......on the two cards that we use monthly.....so I never have interest charges on those cards. Between the two cards we usually get about $2500 cash back per year.

 

Killer day for me and the markets today. I was TOTALLY in the green with all stocks today. AND.....i got in a big beat on the SP500 by 1.40%. It was a very nice day and a very nice way to end the week. With the past four days of big gains my year to date has now improved to......MINUS 8.9%. The SP500 is now at MINUS 6.36%.......SUPER compared to where we were a week or two ago.

 

I found out a few days ago that a friend of mine had died in Houston a few weeks ago. I doubt that anyone on here will have heard of him.....but.....I am going to remember him on here anyway. What a true GENTLEMAN.

Milton Hopkins, guitar great from Houston’s golden age, dies at 88

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/li...kins-guitar-great-from-Houston-s-16951329.php

"For a guy who traveled the world playing gigs as the guitarist and bandleader for B.B. King, Milton Hopkins never gave the impression he was a man in a hurry. In conversation, he was always measured and exact. His guitar playing, too, was economical, stylish and distinctive.

He told the Chronicle his artistry was a product of his hometown. “Houston was a place where the blues were a different ballgame,” he said. “We made this real smooth, sophisticated blues. Where it was a raw, tree stump, corn whiskey party in Mississippi and Georgia and the rest of them, Houston found that really mellow, smooth blues. There was patience in it.”

Hopkins practiced that patience with scores of other musicians on countless stages over decades. The Houston blues legend died Saturday after a short illness. He was 88.

“He really was the last of the great old guitar players who had ties to the city’s rich history,” said Roger Wood, author of “Down in Houston: Bayou City Blues.” Wood cited Hopkins’ work as an instrumentalist and band leader as the top tier of accomplished. The guitarist was also a crucial figure in a revival in the city’s blues scene in the 1980s and 1990s.

“He never needed to be the frontman,” Wood said. “He didn’t do crazy guitar solos, playing behind his head. People loved playing with him because he brought this quiet dignity to the profession. He was a consummate professional who could work with anybody.”

‘One hot meal a day’
Hopkins spent so much of his life lending his gift to this city. He got his start here, playing sessions for the Duke and Peacock labels in the 1950s. His instrument took him far, too, playing gigs with Little Richard, Willie Mae “Big Mama Thornton, Jackie Wilson, Sam Cooke, Marvin Gaye and Johnny Ace. Hopkins was on stage at City Auditorium on Christmas Day 1954, which Ace turned into one of the most dubious days in Houston music history with an ill-fated game of Russian roulette.

The music came first for Hopkins, who expressed disinterest and sometimes disdain for the indulgences of the music industry.

Hopkins cut a different path from so many of his self-destructive peers, which left him on stage, guitar in hand, while so many peers’ careers ended early.

“My dad used to tell me, ‘No matter what, try to get one hot meal a day,’” he said. “I stuck with that.”

For much of the past four decades, Hopkins was a beloved figure at home, with standing club gigs at the Ready Room and Etta’s, and later at the Big Easy and McGonigel’s Mucky Duck. He was in demand for blues festivals and private bookings, where his guitar playing was always — as he put it — mellow and smooth.

Hopkins’ second act in Houston almost didn’t happen. After a decade with B.B. King, he left that blues icon’s service and also left San Francisco, where he’d worked a post office job, to return to Houston, where his mother was ailing. Here, he drove a truck, delivering propane and butane, work that proved hard on the hands he needed to properly play his guitars, which sat in a closet for three years.

“I asked him, ‘What is your plan for all this … stuff?’” his wife, Addie, told the Chronicle in 2018. “What’s it here for if you’re not going to use it?”

Hopkins said he reflected a moment. “I realized, ‘Hey, you play music, man.’ I went back to playing. I’ve played ever since.”

The years that followed were full of music, with Hopkins — cousin of blues great Sam “Lightnin’” Hopkins — a fixture on the scene in Houston. He would bring a six-to-eight-piece band with him to the Ready Room. And he coaxed Grady Gaines into taking Hopkins’ standing gig at Etta’s, which offered a stage to dozens of Houston musicians with long and storied pasts. Wood called it “a renaissance, with all these musicians coming back to the stage.”

Finding a soulful sound
Despite his standing in Houston, Hopkins found his way to the blues later than many guitar greats. He was 14 or 15 when he took notice of the Stella guitar hanging on the porch of his family’s home, a decoration more than an instrument. Hopkins said he had five siblings, so college was off the table. To that point, he hadn’t envisioned any future vocation for himself. So he took the guitar down, strung it, and taught himself to play.

He started playing with Otis Turner’s band around age 16. He later hooked up with Grady Gaines’ House Rockers. Word got around about his playing, thus Hopkins drew the notice of Don Robey, the Houston music magnate, who hired him at age 17.

Hopkins said he didn’t have a suitcase, so he filled a paper bag with his clothes and his shaving kit and grabbed his guitar and amplifier. “I learned on the job,” he said.

In Houston, he found himself around the studio playing with the brilliant arranger Joe Scott, making recordings with Robey’s artists on the Duke and Peacock labels. Hopkins was just 19 when Robey sent him to the Apollo Theater in New York, where he played guitar for Ace and “Big Mama” Thornton. The 1960s found Hopkins frequently touring with Gaines’ Fabulous Upsetters, which put him on stages with artists like Little Richard and Sam Cooke. In 1971, he got hired by B.B. King, whose ’70s recordings featured Hopkins, who also served as bandleader.

Wood says Hopkins once confided that he believed his approach to the guitar differed from that of his Texas peers because his early influence was Orange native Clarence “Gatemouth” Brown rather than Linden native T-Bone Walker, both of whom loom large over guitarists from this state. “Everything Gatemouth played was soulful,” Hopkins told the Chronicle. “He had patience. And some of those notes came right out of here.”

Hopkins tapped his heart.

Play from the heart
Wood said Hopkins’ comfort with space and tempo made him beloved among other musicians. “He wasn’t one of those guitarists who tried to make it sing,” Wood said. “It was always about making his guitar work with the band or the singer. T-99 (singer and keyboardist Jimmy Nelson) loved playing with him. He said, ‘His playing, he didn’t walk all over me.’”

He could play brassy blues, he could do R&B, and he could slide into a jazz gig, seemingly without effort.

Recordings with Hopkins as a session leader were a little scarce and hardly represent his standing in Houston. A standing gig at Danton’s yielded a bright live album. And Hopkins also showed the breadth of his ability to play, making an album with Jewel Brown that worked a seam between jazz and blues. The two headlined the Chicago Blues Festival in 2012.

Plenty of musicians discuss the difficulty of a life on the road. Hopkins said he simply made better decisions that left him less vulnerable to the ways touring can be corrosive to a musician. “What you hear about is the average musician on the road trying to make all the after-parties,” he said. “He’s going to have a woman in every town he plays. He’s going to do all the things that have nothing to do with playing music. That’s what they complain about. ‘The road is hard.’ No, the road is not hard. If you do what you’re supposed to be doing, when you’re supposed to be doing it, it’s easy, man.”

Off the road, Hopkins operated the same once he returned to Houston and served as a conduit to the city’s storied past. He became part of whatever ensemble was playing, putting the music first.

“I run into youngsters now, they play it so fast, you can’t hardly see the damn thing,” he said. “But what’s going to hit you here?” he asked.

Then, once again, he tapped his heart."

MY COMMENT

Rest in peace......Milton. All of the old guys that I knew are disappearing. Over one 10 year time span.....not too long ago...... I probably went to at least 15-20 funerals. The wheel turns......at age 72 I guess I am now one of them.

 

What a week for the averages. I will not say.....TGIF.....since it would be nice if this week just went on and on. Seems like we need the FED to raise rates any time they feel like it....if....this is what we get.

DOW year to date (-4.36%)
DOW for the week +5.50%

SP500 year to date (-6.36%)
SP500 for the week +6.16%

NASDAQ 100 year to date (-11.64%)
NASDAQ 100 for the week +8.41%

NASDAQ year to date (-11.19%)
NASDAQ for the week +8.18%

RUSSELL year to date (-7.09%)
RUSSELL for the week +5.38%

Look at those AMAZING one week gains for the broad indexes.....the SP500, NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100.....ranging from a low of +6.16% to a high of +8.41%......FOR JUST ONE WEEK. Talk about explosive gains that come out of nowhere. this is exactly why I stay fully invested all the time. You never know when this is going to happen.

Does this mean the correction is over? Perhaps....but there is no way to know. I am sure we will see out share of.....short term.....bad weeks in the future. BUT.....overall.....the market direction is always UP.

 

It is so nice to be into the weekend now. We can all.......BASK IN THE GLOW.....of all the money that we had the good fortune to make this week. It will be nice if the markets let us hold onto it for a while.

I have a nice show tomorrow......just a shot 200 or so mile road trip.....at one of my favorite venues. For once lately, the weather is going to cooperate.....so it should be packed.

Have a great weekend all....lets come back on Monday and....HIT IT HARD.

 

Little Joe Washington.....another friend.....from a while back...... now. I miss him and many others. Now........ there was a very interesting character.

RIP, Little Joe Washington
When Little Joe died last month, Houston lost a link to its rich blues history.

https://www.texasmonthly.com/the-culture/rip-little-joe-washington/

Thanks for remembering him Andrew......not many know who he was.....since he rarely made it outside of Houston. He was very influential to many of the older Houston musicians. Although.....in his older years he was homeless and had some drug issues.

 

We saw MASSIVE gains in the markets this week.

Stock market news live updates: Stocks deliver best weekly performance since November 2020 as S&P 500 jumps 6% from last week

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-march-18-2022-221959470.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"U.S. stocks rallied into the close on Friday to post a fourth consecutive day of gains. The major equity indexes also delivered solid weekly advances as traders took favorably the Federal Reserve's measured first move on raising interest rates.

The S&P 500 closed higher by more than 1.1%. The index also posted its first weekly gain in three weeks, and its biggest since November 2020, rising more than 6% since last Friday. U.S. crude oil prices rose to hold above $104 per barrel, while the 10-year Treasury yield declined but held above 2.1%.

Meanwhile, shares of GameStop (GME) — the original darling of last year's Reddit-fueled investing frenzy — turned positive even after the retailer delivered a wider-than-expected fourth-quarter loss. FedEx's (FDX) stock dropped after the shipping giant posted quarterly earnings results Thursday afternoon. These reflected lower-than-expected profits, as rising labor and shipping costs more than offset FedEx's price increases to customers.

For U.S. equity investors broadly, news this week that the Fed opted for a 25 basis point rate hike and charted out a route toward six additional rate hikes later this year helped provide clarity on the future monetary policy path and removed an overhang of uncertainty. The size of the interest rate hike was taken as a carefully considered first move, beginning the process of addressing inflation while avoiding delivering a major shock to markets already weighing Russia's war in Ukraine.
"They took what I would consider the safe route, which was to do 25 basis points," Sonal Desai, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income chief investment officer, told Yahoo Finance Live on Thursday. "Absent what we are seeing on the geopolitical stage right now, they probably would have gone for 50. So I definitely would not rule out a faster, more front-loaded pace of rate hikes going forward."

And later, Fed officials may also upwardly revise its projections for where interest rates will end this year, in the event that inflation does not moderate quickly, Desai added. Based on the Fed's projections from Wednesday, short-term interest rates would likely end the year around 1.75%.

"I could see them going up to 2% this year — we could expect, by the end of next year, looking at something closer to 3%," she added. "So I'm looking at what the Fed has done. I think it was what as needed because it may come across as hawkish, but the Fed is enormously behind the curve at this point."

Technology stocks in particular got a boost following the Fed's decision, with some of the most badly beaten down growth names recovering some year-to-date losses. While some strategists suggested the bottom may have been put in for most tech stocks, others were less certain.

"We did get the hawkish statements out of the Fed [Wednesday], and even though they're going to be stiff headwinds for tech stocks and other aggressive growth companies, the data is now known. And when it's known, it's absorbed in the market," Paul Meeks, Independent Wealth Solutions Management portfolio manager, told Yahoo Finance. "The thing that I still worry about, and it keeps me away from go all-in in tech, is what's going on in Eastern Europe, because if we still have geopolitical risks, we still have risks to these stocks."

10:03 a.m. ET: Existing home sales drop more-than-expected in February
Sales of previously owned homes in the U.S. sank in February by the most since May 2020, as rising mortgage rates and still-climbing prices weighed on affordability and overall housing market activity.

Existing home sales dropped 7.2% in February compared to January, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) said Friday. This was bigger than the 6.2% drop expected, according to Bloomberg consensus data. It also came following a 6.6% rise in existing home sales in January.

With February's declines, existing home sales in the U.S. were at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 6.02 million. The median price for an existing home rose 15% over February last year to reach $357,300."

MY COMMENT

It ia amazing what a bit of clarity will do for stocks and funds. ESPECIALLY.....in a constant fear mongering speculative environment on the part of the media. There are two distinct markets.....the short term.....and....the long term. This week was one in which the long term people took over and did what they had to do.

I have also noticed a distinct drop in the comments and commentary about Ukraine this week. We are becoming used to the war and its impact on the markets is evolving.

 

LOL......can you still post here? Of course you can. The discussion here is for any type of investing style or strategy.

My only comment on your potential plan is.....it seems to be pretty active trading to me....or....will result in pretty active trading. It may result in getting whipsawed by having a hard and fast "sell" rule when a stock is down. You could find that you end up taking profits and or selling off losses much more actively than you think with how erratic and volatile the markets are. By taking profits so early you might leave a lot of money on the table with many GROWTH stocks. Strategies like this can sound good in theory but are often difficult to make work in real life. With a 12-13 year time span........can you afford to lose one or two or three years testing out a new strategy? Etc, etc, etc.

Of course I am not saying to not do it.......no one can give you that sort of advice.

Main thing I would say is....if it works and gives you the return you want....why not. BUT....if it tends to severely under-perform the SP500 in most years......why not just put most of your funds in the SP500 and only trade with a small percentage......like 5-10% of funds.

Bottom line......every investor has to invest in the way that is the best fit for THEMSELVES. Whatever you do......YES.....continue to post your strategy, results, opinions......you are a valuable member of this community.

 

Finally I am going to see earnings from my last company to report......NIKE. They report after the bell on Monday.

Nike earnings, consumer sentiment: What to know in markets this week

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nike...t-to-know-in-markets-this-week-162108808.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"After U.S. stocks staged a rebound last week in the wake of the Federal Reserve's much-anticipated monetary policy decision, investors this week will look ahead to a somewhat quieter slate of corporate earnings and economic data releases.

One of the most closely watched earnings reports will come after market close on Monday from Nike (NKE). As one of the few companies to report earnings that cover performance for this year, Nike's fiscal third-quarter results will provide an update as to how the multinational corporation performed in the first months of 2022 against a backdrop of an ongoing pandemic and war in Ukraine.

Nike shares have dropped by more than 20% for the year-to-date through Friday's close, underperforming the S&P 500's more than 6% decline over the same period. Investors have grown wary of the stock heavily exposed both to international headwinds and to ongoing supply chain issues. Nike joined a number of other U.S.-based companies earlier this month in announcing it would pare back its business in Russia, amid the country's war in Ukraine, saying it would no longer take online orders and would close stores in Russia.

"We expect the focus in 3QF22 to be on: 1) supply chain, including inventory on hand vs. in transit; 2) China, where political backlash and COVID-19 lock downs persist; 3) wholesale distribution, and plans to streamline it further; and 3) demand, which has stayed elevated in NA [North America] and EMEA [Europe, the Middle East, and Africa]," wrote Telsey Advisory Group analyst Cristina Fernandez in a note Friday.

"Although the near-term for Nike is choppy until inventory flow normalizes, Nike should continue to benefit from enhanced connections with consumers through its membership program, high full-price selling, greater use of data across the organization, and a more integrated strategic wholesale model through the One Nike Marketplace initiative," she added.

Back in December during Nike's last earnings day and call, the company said it expected to see third-quarter sales grow by a low-single digit percentage, and for full-year sales to grow by mid-single digits. Fernandez said she expects Nike to reiterate this guidance on Monday.

Overall, Nike is expected to deliver sales of $10.6 billion for its quarter ending in February, according to Bloomberg consensus data. This would represent growth of 3%, compared to the same period last year. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) are expected to reach 72 cents a share, compared to 90 cents per share last year.

Sales in Greater China, one of Nike's key markets, are anticipated to rise back above $2 billion after dipping below that threshold in the fiscal second quarter, as COVID-19 cases in China impacted consumer mobility and spending. Still, the country is grappling with a fresh outbreak of the coronavirus, which may present some downside risks to both sales and supplies for Nike's latest and future results.

In December, Nike Chief Financial Officer Matthew Friend said the company was growing "increasingly confident that supply will normalize heading into fiscal '23."

For many other major companies, however, supply chain concerns have remained top of mind. According to a report from FactSet, 358 S&P 500 companies cited "supply chain" during earnings calls for the fourth quarter, with that figure coming in well above the five-year average of 187.

"This is the second-highest number of S&P 500 companies citing 'supply chain' on earnings calls going back to at least 2010 (using current index constituents going back in time)," FactSet's John Butters said in a note. "The current record is 362, which occurred in the previous quarter (Q3 2021)."

Consumer sentiment

On the economic data front, this week's consumer sentiment report due out from the University of Michigan on Friday will offer an updated snapshot on the state of the consumer amid soaring inflation and the geopolitical crisis in Ukraine.

The institution's revised Surveys of Consumers index is expected to come in unchanged from the preliminary March index at 59.7 — the lowest since 2011. Such a result would solidify the deterioration in consumers' assessments of current and future conditions amid surging prices and turmoil abroad. It would also suggest whether inflation expectations are getting reset and embedded at historically high rates: Earlier this month, consumers said they expected inflation to rise by 5.1% in the next year, marking the highest expected rate since 1981, according to the University of Michigan.

And more importantly, the consumer sentiment index will serve as an indicator of whether declining optimism may ultimately lead to a tangible drop in consumer spending, thereby putting the brakes on U.S. economic activity. U.S. consumer spending comprises more than two-thirds of overall economic activity, and already, early signs have suggested rising prices are curbing at least some demand. Retail sales rose just 0.3% in February, Commerce Department data showed last week, to miss Wall Street's expectations. And when stripping out gas and vehicle sales — which were primarily boosted by higher energy prices — retail sales actually declined for the month.

"Consumer sentiment, the Treasury yield curve, economists’ growth expectations and investor sentiment all show signs of fatigue and underscore the possibility of a recession looming on the horizon," Lindsey Bell, chief markets and money strategist for Ally, wrote in an email Friday. "According to the University of Michigan, consumer sentiment has been on the decline since August and in February it recorded its lowest reading since 2011 at 62.8. Readings at 65 or below often coincide with recessions."

"To be sure, we will need to keep an eye on the consumer as their confidence has been dinged," Bell added. "But I believe given their still strong financial position, and the strength of the job market, it’s possible this could be a temporary blip in confidence. As we can put some of these near-term concerns behind us, the hope is that the second half of 2022 features a steadier global economy and easing inflationary pressures."

Economic calendar

• Monday: Chicago Fed National Activity Index, February (0.69 in January)
  
  
• Tuesday: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, March (2 expected, 1 in February)
  
  
• Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended March 18 (-1.2% during prior week); New home sales, February (815,000 expected, 801,000 in January)
  
  
• Thursday: Initial jobless claims, week ended March 19 (211,000 expected, 214,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, week ended March 12 (1.481 million expected, 1.419 million during prior week); Durable goods orders, February preliminary (-0.5% expected, 1.6% in January); Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, February preliminary (0.5% expected, 1.0% in January) Non-defense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft, February preliminary (0.5% expected, 1.9% in January); S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI, March preliminary (54.2 expected, 55.9 in February); Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index, March (29 in February)
  
  
• Friday: Pending home sales, February (1.0% expected, -5.7% in January); University of Michigan Sentiment, March final (59.7 expected, 59.7 in February)
  

Earnings calendar
Monday

After market close: Nike (NKE)

Tuesday

Before market open: Carnival Corp. (CCL)

After market close: Adobe (ADBE)

Wednesday

Before market open: General Mills (GIS)

Thursday

After market close: Darden Restaurants (DRI)

Friday

No notable reports scheduled for release"

MY COMMENT

I rarely highlight analyst expectations of earnings in articles......like Nike tomorrow. I dont care what they expected.....all I care about is the real thing. I have no clue what or how they will do...I dont try to anticipate earnings "stuff".

Same with the various consumer sentiment and other surveys. They are the ultimate short term.....hindsight....snapshot. Not really relevant to anything in the real world since people do NOT answer this sort of question accurately and honestly.

Tomorrow is the first day of the rest of the year for investors. We start a new week rested up and ready to go. The question is......are the markets ready to go....up.

I am sure we will see some profit taking by short term traders and short term investors at some point this week and especially at some point Monday or Tuesday. Some people might take the gains of last week as an opportunity to BAIL OUT of the markets short term.

On the positive side of things.......there is little going on this coming week and little to no releases of economic data. Therefore.......the environment for the markets should........yeah right....."should"......continue in the same short term environment that got us the big gains next week.

 

I have been waiting all morning for the markets to show some real direction. BUT.....no.....it is a mildly mixed market that is just lingering so far. So....I will consider that a positive compared to the market moves we have been seeing lately.....before last week.