The Long Term Investor

Here is one more bit of economic data.......although I dont give this sort of stuff much relevance.

US consumers still confident, but outlook not as rosy

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-consumers-still-confident-outlook-141420541.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"SILVER SPRING, Md. (AP) — U.S. consumer confidence bounced back in March and remains high, though consumers' short-term outlook is not quite as rosy.

The Conference Board, a business research group, said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index — which takes into account consumers’ assessment of current conditions and their outlook for the future — rose to 107.2 in March from 105.7 in February.

The board's present situation index, which measures consumers’ assessment of current business and labor conditions, also rose this month to 153 from 143 in February.

However, the expectations index, based on consumers’ six-month outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, declined to 76.6 from 80.8 in February. Respondents cited higher prices — particularly gas prices — and the war in Ukraine as the biggest factors.

The proportion of people planning to purchase homes, automobiles, and major appliances over the next six months all fell as interest rates have risen, the Conference Board said.

The Federal Reserve raised its main borrowing rate by a quarter point earlier this month, the main mechanism for combatting inflation. But many economists say the Fed’s first rate hike in three years came too late.

Two weeks ago, the government reported that inflation at the consumer level soared over the past year at its highest rate in four decades. The 7.5% price surge ranged across the economy, from food and furniture to apartment rents, airline fares and electricity.

There are signs that American consumers are curtailing their spending. After beginning the year in a buying mood, Americans slowed their spending in February on gadgets, home furnishings and other discretionary items as higher prices for necessities — food, gasoline, and shelter — are helping erase any pay increases.

Retail sales increased just 0.3% last month after registering a revised 4.9% jump from December to January, fueled by wage gains, solid hiring and more money in banking accounts, according to the Commerce Department.

Some economists believe the healthy U.S. labor market is a major factor driving consumer confidence.

“Consumer confidence rose because it is heavily weighted toward job prospects, and not only are job postings plentiful, many workers are job hopping to land better pay and better benefits, especially working from home," said economist Robert Frick with Navy Federal Credit Union.

The Labor Department reported Tuesday that there were 11.3 million available jobs last month, matching January’s figure and just below December’s record of 11.4 million. The number of Americans quitting their jobs was also historically high, at 4.4 million.

The unemployment rate is at a historically low 3.8% and some analysts expect that number to come down further when the government releases its March jobs report on Friday."

MY COMMENT

This sort of poll is useless. Pure hindsight analysis and not really relevant to anything that I do as an investor. BUT.....people love this sort of data. SO.....it is reported as headline news. As an investor I read it out of interest but it is NOT something that I take into account in what I am doing. Even if it was meaningful or accurate as a predictor.....it is just short term stuff.

 

For those that think the little rally we are in right now is a SUCKERS RALLY.

Our Perspective on the Nascent Rebound
In an actual ‘sucker’s rally,’ that term rarely gets used.

https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/marketminder/our-perspective-on-the-nascent-rebound

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"After another week, US and global stocks have pared about half of their peak-to-trough declines during this correction, give or take. Or, what we think is a correction—a sharp, sentiment-fueled drop of -10% to -20%. Some have a different opinion and warn the past few days could be a mere sucker’s rally—a temporary positive burst that fools people into buying during a bear market, which is typically a much longer, deeper decline of -20% or worse with a fundamental cause. In all fairness, this is possible. Yet investing isn’t about possibilities—in our view, it is about probabilities. To avoid getting faked out, we think it is helpful to bear in mind some of bear markets’ typical traits.

Corrections are usually short and steep from start to finish. They tend to start and end without warning, and they fall on feelings—sometimes tied to a big story, sometimes for no apparent reason. Sentiment usually deteriorates throughout, generating a barrage of this time is different arguments that the decline will get worse. But then they end, usually as suddenly as they began, and a steep recovery typically follows. In our view, the best thing for someone seeking long-term growth to do during corrections is grit their teeth and hang on, lest they sell after a decline and miss the rebound—and miss returns that could compound over time.

Bear markets, by contrast, tend to last several months or more, usually rolling over gradually, with the worst declines coming late. In 2020, this wasn’t the case, as the bear market lasted just five weeks for the S&P 500 and six for the MSCI World Index—as we have written, it was more like a correction than a bear market, despite the fact it technically was a bear market (the magnitude exceeded -20% and, in the lockdowns, it had a fundamental cause). But that instance aside, bear markets are usually long grinds, and we think their slow start is what makes it possible to carve out a chunk of them.

In general, bear markets typically behave similarly. Their monthly decline usually averages around -2%, give or take—sometimes a bit more, sometimes a bit less. Additionally, two-thirds of their decline by magnitude tends to come during the final one-third lifespan. Therefore, we think it is wise not to consider exiting stocks until you are at least three months from the most recent peak. That gives you a good window to assess the decline’s pace as well as the fundamental backdrop. If it is a steep drop, then you are probably in a correction. If it is gentle and the financial news world is full of articles preaching buy the dips, there is a higher likelihood you are in a bear market.

As we write, stocks are only a month and a half or so from the most recent peak. This is helpful because it means you don’t need to make a snap decision about the past week’s rally. If it is indeed the rebound from the correction, that will become apparent soon enough. If it is a bear market rally, eventually it and the surrounding declines will likely even out into that roughly -2% or so monthly decline. Said differently, the rally will become part of that slow rolling top. Patience is difficult at times like this, but we think it is vital to seeing things clearly and reducing the risk of a portfolio error.

The three-month window isn’t just for watching market movement—it is also for assessing fundamental conditions and sentiment to determine realistic probabilities about what likely lies ahead. As we write, based on our ongoing research and analysis, we think this is quite likely a correction, not a bear market. Maybe we are already in the recovery, or maybe this is a correction with a W-shaped trough instead of a V. But we don’t see the general conditions that usually bring a bear market.

When analyzing the long arc of market history, we find bear markets usually begin one of two ways, which we call “the wall” and “the wallop.” The wall happens when stocks finish climbing the bull market’s proverbial “wall of worry,” and euphoric sentiment gets far ahead of reality. The euphoria itself isn’t bearish, but it blinds investors to approaching risks and deteriorating fundamentals, eventually driving stocks lower. The dot-com crash and bear market in 2000 – 2002 is a classic example. The wallop, as the name suggests, is a huge, shocking negative with the power and high probability of deleting several trillion dollars from global GDP, which is what it takes to cause a global recession. Early 2020’s global lockdowns were a wallop, as was the US mark-to-market accounting rule’s impact on bank balance sheets in 2007 – 2009.

When stocks started declining early this year, investors weren’t euphoric—far from it. Sentiment had deteriorated throughout 2021, resulting in a messy mix of skepticism and optimism when this year began. Inflation, geopolitics and pending Fed rate hikes were all sending investors’ expectations lower. As for a wallop, we have addressed all three in detail in recent months and, in short, we don’t think they qualify. We aren’t saying they are good, but at this juncture, we don’t think they have the size or surprise power necessary to send stocks far lower for far longer. Rather, all three are classic correction stories, much like China’s “devaluation” in 2015 and the eurozone’s debt crisis in 2011 and 2012.

The “sucker’s rally” warnings we are seeing now are also quite typical of a correction—they are emblematic of the fearful sentiment that reigns. Early bear markets, by contrast, aren’t that fearful. The early declines seem so gentle that few extrapolate them. They more often dismiss the declines, prompting the aforementioned chorus of buy the dips chatter. If bull markets climb a wall of worry, then bear markets roll down a slope of hope.

One of the most frustrating things about stocks is that inflection points are clear only in hindsight. But investing has always been an endeavor of probabilities, not certainty—and not possibilities. In our view, while we can’t (ever) be certain, the overwhelming probability today is that this year’s early volatility is (perhaps was) a correction, with still-brighter days likely to come sooner than many think.

MY COMMENT

One nice thing about being a long term investor is the fact that I dont care if a rally is a suckers rally. I am simply going to hold through it all anyway. In my opinion it is impossible to predict if a market drop is a bear market or correction.....and again.....why would I care. The bottom line....no one can predict if the current rally has legs or is a suckers rally.

Trying to predict the future and jumping in and out of the markets is simply the perfect way to miss out on gains as they randomly happen over the short term. It is also the perfect way to drive yourself crazy and severely underperform the market averages over the long term.

 

I had a clean sweep today.....everything green. AND....a small beat on the SP500 today by 0.16%.

I see that Zukodany is now back to ZERO for the year. I am still lingering at a LOSS of (4.50%) year to date. The SP500.....for reference......is at a year to date LOSS of (2.82%) as of the close today. I suspect that I will go positive about the same time as the SP500....since I am tending to gain a little bit on it here and there lately. With some LUCK the SP500 and I might be back to ZERO by the end of this week or perhaps next week.

 

Peter Lynch......now there was a man that could beat the pants off the SP500 over many years in a row.

Legendary stock picker Peter Lynch made a remarkably prescient market observation in 1994

https://www.tker.co/p/peter-lynch-1994-stock-market-earnings?s=r

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Peter Lynch, the legendary stock picker who ran Fidelity’s market-beating Magellan Fund for 13 years, made a prescient observation in a speech he gave to the National Press Club back in October 7, 1994.

It comes from the 38-minute mark of this video (via @DividendGrowth):

Some event will come out of left field, and the market will go down, or the market will go up. Volatility will occur. Markets will continue to have these ups and downs. … Basic corporate profits have grown about 8% a year historically. So, corporate profits double about every nine years. The stock market ought to double about every nine years. So I think — the market is about 3,800 today, or 3,700 — I'm pretty convinced the next 3,800 points will be up; it won't be down. The next 500 points, the next 600 points — I don’t know which way they’ll go. So, the market ought to double in the next eight or nine years. They’ll double again in eight or nine years after that. Because profits go up 8% a year, and stocks will follow. That's all there is to it.

When he says “the market,” Lynch is referring the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which closed at 3,797 on the day he gave the talk.

If you compound that by an 8% growth rate over 27.5 years, which would get you to present day, then you get 31,520.

The Dow closed Friday at 34,861, which is pretty darn close. For context, a 7% growth rate would’ve gotten you to 24,405 and a 9% rate would’ve gotten you to 40,613.

If you did this exercise with the S&P 500, which closed at 455 on the day of Lynch’s talk, then you’d get 3,778 assuming an 8% compound annual growth rate. The S&P closed Friday at 4,543. (A 9% rate would’ve gotten you to 4,867.)

According to S&P Dow Jones Indices, S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) were $30.11 for the 12 months ending Q3 1994, around the time Lynch gave that speech. If you compounded that by 8% over 27.5 years, you’d get $250. S&P Dow Jones Indices estimates EPS for the 12 months ending March 2022 was actually $211, which is close. (They estimate S&P EPS will be $246 in 2023.)

Lynch was not predicting the precise point of the market in March 2022. He was talking about how markets trend over longer-term periods while acknowledging short-term volatility. If you allow him some margin of error to account for unpredictable short-term swings, then you may be able to better appreciate how his thoughts speak to some fundamental market truths we often talk about here at TKer.

I think three elements of what Lynch said are critical for investors to understand.

1: ‘Some event will come out of left field and the market will go down or the market will go up. Volatility will occur.‘

This relates to TKer stock market truth No. 8: “The most destabilizing risks are the ones people aren’t talking about.“

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a good example. For investors, a conflict between Russia and Ukraine had not been a concern, so markets weren’t prepared for it. This would explain why stocks went into a deep correction amid the initial news and buildup.

With these types of unforeseen events, prices will swing wildly as markets digest every positive and negative development as the situation unfolds.

This stands in contrast to the risks everyone has been talking about, like inflation and tighter monetary policy. These risks had investors concerned for months before those fears were confirmed, and the actual news eventually had a limited effect on market volatility.

2: ‘I’m pretty convinced the next 3,800 points will be up; it won't be down. The next 500 points, the next 600 points — I don’t know which way they’ll go.‘

Over time, the stock market’s biggest moves will be to the upside (which relates to TKer stock market truth No. 4), and the long game is undefeated (which is TKer stock market truth No. 1.) But you can certainly get smoked in the short term (TKer stock market truth No. 2).

As we discuss frequently here on TKer, big sell-offs are actually pretty normal. The S&P 500 experiences an average max drawdown (i.e., the biggest intra-year sell-off) of 14% a year.


For what it’s worth, the current market correction has seen the S&P 500 fall 12% from its high of 2022, which is less bad than average.

Lynch’s comment speaks to the advantage of a long-term investment horizon, which is a valuable edge most investors have.

3: ‘Profits go up 8% a year, and stocks will follow. That's all there is to it.’

The stock market has historically usually gone up because earnings have usually gone up. That’s because earnings are the most important driver of stock prices, which is TKer stock market truth No. 5.

Check out this chart of S&P 500 earnings since 1986, courtesy of Yardeni Research. It’s on a logarithmic scale, which smooths out the curve you get when growth is compounding at a steady rate over time.


There’s some short term noise. But over time, earnings have been going up and to the right.

Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments, recently shared a chart showing the tight relationship between earnings and stock prices.


Stock prices are on the y-axis, accompanied by earnings on the x-axis. The data goes back all the way to 1871. The r-squared of 0.9686 in this linear regression is very close to 1, which means earnings do an extremely good job of explaining how stock prices behave.

In other words, stocks go where profits go.

“That's all there is to it,” Lynch said."

MY COMMENT

YEP.....over the long term the market direction is ALWAYS positive. So..........that is what I rely on. I also count on buying stocks that have the greatest potential to THRIVE by being PROVEN names with a great growth path ahead of them.

 

This could be a real......short term...... bump in the road for Amazon......but.....if necessary they will just learn to live with it.

Amazon faces high-stakes Alabama union vote after 'radically different' campaign

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vote...zon-union-election-in-bessemer-190938619.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Vote tallying began on Monday in a historic union election at an Amazon (AMZN) warehouse in Bessemer, Alabama, where a labor victory among more than 5,000 workers could upend the business model at the e-commerce giant and intensify a surge of organizing underway at major companies like Starbucks (SBUX) and Disney (DIS).

The election arrives roughly one year after the overwhelming defeat of an initial union drive led by the Retail, Wholesale and Department Store Union (RWDSU) at the Bessemer facility — a result that was later nullified by a ruling that Amazon had illegally interfered with the labor campaign.

Alongside the revote in Bessemer, warehouse workers at a 6,000-person facility on Staten Island are casting their ballots in a union election that ends on Wednesday.

Both elections could deliver results by the end of the week, with victories dealing a sudden and significant blow to Amazon, which has opposed the labor campaigns at both facilities. But twin union defeats could tarnish the perception of organizing at the company nationwide, discouraging workers beyond Amazon and affirming the company's previous contention that criticism of the work environment at its warehouses is overblown.

RWDSU President Stuart Appelbaum, as well as pro-union Amazon workers, told Yahoo Finance that a different strategy and a new set of grievances have energized the campaign, feeding optimism that the union will prevail in the second election at the plant.

Labor experts acknowledged the significance of a potential victory at the nation’s second-largest employer, especially among a predominantly Black segment of its workforce at a facility in the labor-unfriendly South.

Moreover, the election at Amazon coincides with a nationwide wave of organizing as emboldened workers draw leverage from a tight labor market. Starbucks workers in recent months have unionized eight stores, with more likely to come as over 100 stores across more than 25 states have filed for union elections; and employees at Disney captured attention last week with a walkout to protest the company's posture toward a controversial Florida law.

But the experts cautioned that the bottomless resources and anti-union messaging of a corporate giant like Amazon make the organizing drive a difficult feat.

The election is “symbolic because Amazon is sort of looked at as the wave of the future in terms of the business world, the globalized economy, and the high-tech economy,” says Paul Clark, a labor relations professor at Pennsylvania State University. “There was a great disappointment when the first vote was not even close, so this would be a big deal.”

In a statement to Yahoo Finance, Amazon said it eagerly awaits the results of the union election in Bessemer. “We look forward to having our employees’ voices heard,” spokesperson Kelly Nantel said. “Our focus remains on working directly with our team to continue making Amazon a great place to work.”

Dale Wyatt, a warehouse worker at the Bessemer facility since August, said he voted “yes” for the union because it would bring job security, a potential pay raise, and bolstered workplace safety protections.

“Amazon has 100% of the power right now,” says Wyatt, who makes $16.05 per hour. “They can fire us at any time. With a union, that’s not how it works. We have a representative to protect us.”

The criticism echoes grievances voiced by Amazon workers for years, including during the previous organizing drive at the Bessemer facility, when workers said they endured grueling and dangerous conditions enforced by digital devices that track them every minute. Some workers also say these devices fuel high turnover as the company fires employees who fail to keep up with performance quotas.

Emergency calls from the facility in recent months suggest incidents of acute difficulty. Individuals at the Bessemer warehouse called 911 a total of 32 times over the first two months of 2022, amounting to a rate of more than one call every two days, according to a 911 call log obtained by Yahoo Finance through a public records request. The reasons for the calls included heart attacks, psychiatric problems, and fainting, the 911 log said.

"The facility has thousands of workers there, but that's still a lot of calls," says Joshua Freeman, a professor emeritus of labor history at Queens College at the City University of New York. "It clearly reflects some challenging conditions."

Amazon did not respond to a request for comment about the 911 calls.

Wyatt said the second union drive in Bessemer has also focused on a newfound disillusionment at the warehouse: a belief that the company has fallen short of a commitment to improve employee relations made during the first union drive last spring.

"I've noticed a lot of people who were voting ‘no’ last time are voting ‘yes’ this time because Amazon didn’t follow through on its promises from the last round," Wyatt said.

In a previous statement to Yahoo Finance, Amazon defended its commitment to workers' wellbeing and safety. "Nothing is more important than the health and safety of our employees," the company said. "We are anything but complacent and continue to innovate, learn, and improve the measures we have in place to protect our teams.”

A number of workers at the facility in Bessemer oppose the union drive, in part because they fear the loss of what they consider strong pay and benefits, BuzzFeed News reported last month. Full-time entry-level employees for the company in Alabama make nearly $16 per hour — a pay rate over twice the federal minimum wage.

“I'm very worried about what would happen should the union be voted in," Kylee Rancour, an Amazon warehouse worker in Bessemer, told BuzzFeed News. "It could mean sacrificing benefits in exchange for things we don't want or need."

Meanwhile, in advocating for the union, Wyatt has spoken with colleagues about it in the break room, helped hand out union-provided "goodie bags," and even made a homemade T-shirt that says, in part, "Your boss lied."

It's all part of a revamped union strategy that favors person-to-person conversations with workers. That contrasts with the organizing drive last year, which appeared to focus on attracting big-name supporters like President Joe Biden and Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT).

“This is radically different from the first campaign," says Appelbaum, the RWDSU president.

He says the campaign has drawn support and in some cases personnel from 20 other unions, which allowed for up to 150 organizers on the ground in Bessemer at any given time. Among the partner unions are two of the nation's largest, the Service Employees International Union and the Teamsters, the latter of which launched its own nationwide campaign focused on Amazon last June.

But the second organizing drive at Bessemer has faced a staunch and well-resourced anti-union campaign from Amazon, Wyatt and Appelbaum said. For his part, Wyatt estimated that he had been forced to attend at least 12 meetings in recent months during which Amazon attempted to persuade workers to oppose the union. Over the days leading up to mail-in voting, which began on Feb. 4, Wyatt received "daily messages" from Amazon urging him to vote "no," he said.

To be sure, federal labor law permits employers wide latitude in dissuading workers from supporting a labor drive, including mandatory meetings with employees.

“One thing that has stayed the same is Amazon has been conducting a ferocious union busting campaign, just as they did during the first vote," Appelbaum said.

Amazon previously provided the following statement to Yahoo Finance regarding other union campaigns among its employees: "It’s our employees’ choice whether or not to join a union. It always has been. And it’s important that everyone understands the facts about joining a union and the election process itself."

"We host regular information sessions for all employees, which includes an opportunity for them to ask questions," the statement continues. "If the union vote passes, it will impact everyone at the site so it’s important all employees understand what that means for them and their day-to-day life working at Amazon.”

Maite Tapia, a labor expert at Michigan State University, noted that the anti-union tactics carried out by Amazon comprise the standard response to unionization from many large employers, including Starbucks, another major brand publicly opposing an organizing effort undertaken by its workers.

"I’m hopeful, but at the same time, they fight against corporations that have bottomless pockets when it comes to anti-union campaigning," she says.

In the Bessemer warehouse, workers' conditions are inextricably linked to issues of race, surveillance, and policing, as about 80% of the warehouse’s workforce is Black, said Tamara Lee, a labor expert at Rutgers University who often collaborates with Tapia.

Amazon says that the tracking devices allow the company to enhance the safety and efficiency of the workplace. “Like any business, we use technology to maintain a level of security within our operations to help keep our employees, buildings, and inventory safe — it would be irresponsible if we didn’t do so,” the company told the Washington Post in December.

“It’s also important to note that while the technology helps keep our employees safe, it also allows them to be more efficient in their jobs," the company added.

Lee pointed to the negative ramifications of rigorously tracking worker performance. “With this kind of nonstop surveillance, it’s a form of bodily control, inside and outside the workplace, especially Black bodies that make up the majority of the workforce in Bessemer,” she said.

"It's very significant that this is happening now, and that it’s happening in the South, but I don’t want to overplay this moment," she adds. "Workers have been frustrated at Amazon for years, and they’ve made other attempts to organize.”

For years, Amazon has withstood persistent criticism over the conditions at its warehouse network, which has grown to at least 110 fulfillment centers in North America. The company instituted a $15 wage floor four years ago, and last year backed legislation that would gradually raise the federal minimum wage from $7.25 to $15 per hour. Other companies like Ben & Jerry's and Patagonia are among the firms that support a $15 minimum wage.

But national interest in the first Bessemer union drive spurred more than 1,000 Amazon employees across the U.S. to contact RWDSU about potential labor organizing efforts, the union said last March.

Natalie Monarrez, a warehouse worker at a Staten Island facility that's in a union drive of its own, said she hopes the second election in Bessemer brings a sea change in worker relations at the company and other major firms.

"Jeff Bezos already had 27 years to figure it out and it was an afterthought for him," she says referring to the founder and former CEO who still chairs the board. "He should've considered his workers even a fraction as much as he’s been obsessed with his customers."

"We were inspired by them to unionize and hopefully other locations and workers at other companies will be inspired," she adds."

MY COMMENT

I would guess that both of these will fail. The one in New York probably has the best chance of success. Over the long run the company is going to make most of these jobs robotic. Union victories will probably speed up the process.

 

Got some good news out of the blue today. One of our paintings is going to be in an exhibition. That is great PR for the painting and for its reputation. I like to do anything I can to promote my paintings.

This exhibition will be a really good one at a very nice location. The only bad thing is the painting will be off my wall and gone for about 5 months. The other worry I always have is the shipping and handling and the potential for damage to the art. The institution will hire a professional art shipper to pick up, document, catalog, pack, and ship each painting.....so it should be good. But anytime you are shipping something there is some slight potential for damage.

 

Some good comments above oldmanram......the truth about how to successfully invest.

Well we are open today with a mixed market at best......actually right now.....all the averages are down. I dont see much confidence in the market direction right now. SO.....I think there is good potential that by the end of the day today we will be in the green again. However.....the markets do need to rest once in a while......they need to consolidate the gains. So....a down day is no big deal.

 

I see a few articles today talking about the new....."proposed".....BILLIONAIRE TAX. Obviously this tax has ZERO chance of becoming law. BUT.....there is a real danger to the economy and the country in this proposal. The tax on assets based on their value.......a tax on UNREALIZED CAPITAL GAINS of all assets......in a historic proposal.

This all sounds nice since we have to punish and make those billionaires pay. Yeah......cue the peasants with torches marching on the castle. BUT...YOU...had better watch out for what you think is a good idea if you support this insanity.

Once this sort of tax is established for any portion of the population......once there is a foot in the door.....sooner or later it WILL apply to YOU and everyone else. Just like the income tax which was sold to the public as only applying to the RICH.....the top 1%. How has that worked out for you now that the income tax has grown to apply to EVERYONE.

Any tax that the government can get in will GROW, and GROW, and GROW over the years. The definition of who it applies to will change.....going down the income scale. The definition of "RICH" will go lower and lower and lower. Once this sort of GARBAGE is allowed into law.....it is only a matter of......perhaps 15-30 years......till it will be applied to the majority of the population.

 

Some people are living in a fantasy world......well....perhaps they are living in the meta-verse.

Junior Goldman Sachs bankers threaten to leave office ‘5 days a week’

https://lovebylife.com/junior-goldman-sachs-bankers-threaten-to-leave-office-5-days-a-week/

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

'Goldman Sachs’ junior bankers are threatening to walk out of office five days a week as the epidemic deteriorates – and some hold that their bosses are quietly checking attendance.

As bonuses reach record highs across Wall Street, the underlings at Goldman – led by hard charging chief executive David Solomon – however infamously raise complaints of “hellhole” working conditions that include 100-hour weeks.

More recently, some junior goldmanites claim to be “threatened” to show themselves in a “5-0” person – that is, five days off from work, zero from home – and bullying is organized by top managers armed with spreadsheets. .

“At GS, top management says it’s employee choice, but internally they track which team is most in office attendance,” one Goldman employee wrote in the corporate message board Blind, which tracks users’ workplace with the help of their company’s email accounts. .

“At the top of our team meeting, managers showed us Excel, where the MDs are finding out which department has not fulfilled in-office commitments,” the staff wrote to the top level managing director.

Another Goldman employee said: “Clearly they are tracking everyone’s attendance and managers are getting lists of people with low attendance so they can bully them into coming.”

Last year, Solomon called the work from home an epidemic “aberration” despite bitter comments about the practice of working out of the Hamptons and spending long weekends in the Caribbean.

But after asking all employees to return to office five days a week in June, Goldman Sachs was forced to return it after an Omicron outbreak in December. The bank called all employees back in February.

“David Solomon sucks,” one user griped on Blind. “Nobody wants to be in 5-0 and plenty of companies are willing to allow hybrid/remote.”

Indeed, some younger staffers say they are looking to “GTFO” of Wall Street as they interview with tech companies which offer better compensation and more flexibility. One said she was “negotiating with two FAANGs” — a comment referring to Facebook, Amazon, Alphabet, Netflix and Google that prompted other users to ask to connect offline in the hopes they might jump to tech companies themselves.

A Goldman spokesperson declined to comment for the record. A person close to the bank disputed there was widespread frustration. “Far from a scientific survey, The Post has chosen a handful of comments submitted to an online forum no one has heard of.”

JPMorgan, meanwhile, has taken a more relaxed approach than Goldman. The mega-bank headed by Jamie Dimon offers some hybrid options and many employees are allowed to work from home at least one day a week.

Nevertheless, employees continue to kvetch. One said he’s working remote until “I get fired.” Others asked whether they’d be punished if they simply refused to return to the office.

“I don’t feel like traveling to office and I want to continue WFH. Anyone facing any action from manager or HR for not returning to office?” one user asked.

Another JPMorgan employee said she doesn’t plan to go into the office even if it means getting cut: “Yeah… I’m working remote until I get fired.”

JPMorgan declined to comment.

During the pandemic, banks have ramped up efforts to keep junior employees happy, doling out the biggest bonuses on record — an average of $257,500, according to the state of New York — even as they have pledged to hire more staff to help with the workload.

Goldman and JPMorgan increased first-year pay by roughly 30 percent — to $110,000. Morgan Stanley said it would boost first-year pay to $110,000, while boutique investment bank Evercore raised first-year salaries to $120,000."

MY COMMENT

What a bunch of self absorbed and entitled asses. These guys are lucky I am not the head of the company....they would be fired.

It is not like they are some elite bunch of employees. If these jobs were open to graduates of......."regular"....colleges and not just the ELITE SCHOOL GRADUATES.......there would be a line ten miles long of people applying for these jobs. AND......I bet the "regular" school graduates would probably end up doing a better job than the elite school grads.

 

Yeah Zukodany. Human behavior......on display. I.......LOVE IT. It makes me look good as an investor.....when in reality......I am not doing anything. Just letting the markets do what they do naturally.

If anyone on here wants to see REAL ACADEMIC MARKET RESEARCH on investor behavior and returns.....I refer you to a company called Dalbar.

https://www.dalbar.com/

No need to buy any of their content or products. Their investing research about behavior of investors is all over the internet.
I discovered this company and their research on investor returns and behavior many decades ago. There research is the basis for much of what I do.........probability based investing.

Invest for the long term.
No trading.
Fully invested all the time.
All in all at once.
No market timing.
Focus on the big cap side of the markets like the SP500.

For example here is one of their more recent releases.....if you search you can find their actual detailed release at no charge.

DALBAR Study finds the Average Investor Return Gap Doubled in 2021
Investors Feel Latent Effects from their 2020 Behavior

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-rel...tor-return-gap-doubled-in-2021-301362112.html

"DALBAR, Inc. announces the release of the 2021 mid-year update to its QAIB report (Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior). The QAIB report has been the nation's leading study on investor behavior for the past 27 years and has now been updated for the period ending June 30, 2021."

I will leave it to YOU to read the rest of this and look on the internet for past releases of their.....QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF INVESTOR BEHAVIOR.