Relatively quiet day here...both in terms of my trading as well as the market writ large. I closed my NKE swing trade +15.58% after its pop on earnings. Markets continue drifting higher on very light volume. This gave me a degree of confidence in QID, so I added another tranche to this position which brings my cost basis to $18.40, and I also added another tranche to ADSK which brings my cost basis to $11.05. I wanted to add to SCO, but the pullback in oil didn't allow me to get another tranche where I wanted. Lastly, I am liking the doji on VRSK and topping tail on ADSK -- tried to add to these positions as well, but did not get filled where I wanted...will see what happens at the open & potentially try again. Thanks for stopping by, V
Another day of light volume, but with a pullback this time; unlike yesterday's floating up on light volume. Personally, I am looking for continued pullback tomorrow....but we'll see. I closed 3x long positions (circa 2014-2015 entries) which I have not tracked here because they are in another non-Robinhood account/portfolio. The goal here is just consolidation; I want to beef up this portfolio and since these are all up nicely, I had an opportunity to do so. VALE +193.33% PBR +28.93% URA +15.06% I took some option-risk off the table by closing my ADSK pullback play +9.05%. I used the profits to add to my SCO play vs. oil & to my WELL options; my cost basis on the options is now $4.97. I also kept my VRSK options on the table because I like how it traded today; again, I'd like to see continued pullback tomorrow, at which point I'll set a stop here. I closed my KWEB +19.13% and BABA +15.38% swing trades as BABA came into a major resistance TL. I'll definitely look for an opportunity to enter BABA again on a pullback. Lastly, I tried messing around with a gap trade this morning at the opening bell on OKTA -2.82%, but it quickly went against me so I need to go back to the drawing board on the strategy I was trying out. Thanks for stopping by, V
3rd day out of 3 days with of low volume; 2nd day out of 3 days where we floated up on low volume...today we closed right at the same level we did the 1st day of floating up. What tomorrow will bring...who knows?! Very quiet day for me. I sold some $90 BABA puts for next week; I'll continue this rolling weekly trade until I either get put the shares...or...price rises to the point the premiums aren't there any more. I also added to my WELL pullback options play...steadily accumulating puts & bringing down my basis so I'm postured for when the true pullback comes. And that's it...thanks for stopping by, V
Another quiet day here overall. I rolled NOK covered calls to next week, am partially filled on F as well, but not filled on CCL yet. I did enter into a swing trade on TLT as it returned to 2x major support levels on its monthly chart. The first support level is the pivot area prior to the major break out candle; this level led to its surge to the upside, so I expect it will be defended. The second support level is the 75% Fib retrace from the pivot low to pivot high. If we do see a continued pierce through these support TLs, I'll continue to accumulate; there is a 3rd major support level down at its 200 SMA in the $115 - $116 range. On the daily chart, you'll see multiple gap areas; these could be near term targets...we'll see...but my ultimate goal is its return to those 20 & 50 SMAs between $140 - $147. My basis here is $128.21 Thanks for stopping by, V
Weekly Rollup: March 21 - 25, 2022 Trades: 13 Winners: 11 Losers: 2 Summary: This week my trading volume was back to normal compared to last week, where I pulled the triiger on 2X my normal trading volume. I failed to mention a couple trades in my daily / Friday post: my weekly IWM expired OTM +2.04% and my FB puts expired OTM as well for a complete loss at -100% -- can't win the all...FB fell like an absolute rock, so that options play didn't stand a chance. It didn't help that I accidentally bought the 3/25 chain when I meant to buy the 5/20 chain...so I stupidly took 2x months off th clock thanks to my fat fingers & trying to get the trade in too fast. I'll have to set a reminder to check where FB is on May 20th...but I digress... Next Week: I am not buying in at all to the bullish-ness which seems to be creeping back into the market. I say creeping because the true bullish market makers are definitely not roaring back into the market. The volume for the past 4x days has been 50%(ish) normal...we've basically been limping along. But listening to the talking heads, you'd think the market makers were in fact roaring back. Yes, the broader market made a tremendous move over the last 2x weeks, but they did that the 1st week...this week, they've been on the sidelines in my opinion. And so the SPY & QQQ floated higher...but oddly not the IWM to the same extent. A sign? Maybe. It is only a matter of time. So with that said, here is where my trades currently stand. I'm sitting on a lot of cash at the moment, my portfolio is only about 36% invested at the moment. I hope everyone had a good week -- has a good weekend -- and thanks for stopping by, V
Busy little Monday here, especially considering how last week was such a mild one. The drop in oil did continue through the overnight & today; I closed my SCO +9.58% I missed the boat on STLD and TXN; oh well, cannot catch them all and I'm not going to chase trades. I did, however, get into pullback option plays on AAPL, CNI, and ALL. I remain unconvinced of the bullishness, so I added to my QID (basis is now $17.78) and entered SDS (basis is $37.06). Lastly, I got my covered calls from Friday filled, so I continue to chip away at the cost basis on all my long investments. Here are my thoughts on those 3x big trades I entered today: AAPL -- I went with $170 puts on its 8/19 chain. My cost basis is $10.50; but if it breaks above its channel, I may add to the position up to that $180 - $182.50 area. My ideal target is a strong pullback to $157; however, if price only chops lower I may exit at its daily 50 & 100 SMA around $165...we'll have to see. I did not see anything too concerned when looking at larger time frames. This surge came after AAPL hit it's 50 SMA on the weekly, so I could see it piercing through that channel temporarily, as I mentioned earlier. Even if it forming a bullish insider bar on its monthly chart, it still have downside potential to $140, which is more of a move to the downside than I am looking for. CNI -- I went with $135 puts on its 7/15 chain. I very well may have jumped into this a little early, but I pulled the triiger primarily off hitting that double top. My cost basis is $6.60 -- but I see upside potential to $137.50 -- and since these options are not as expensive compared to the others, I am more likely (and able!) to add to this position if it does climb into that range. My biggest concern with this trade comes on the larger timeframe. It's making this double top because on both the monthly & weekly charts, there is a possible breakout from an insider bar pattern. However, the major double top it's showing on its daily chart comes with a RSI divergence...hence why I pulled the trigger. ALL -- I went with $140 puts on its 10/21 chain. My cost basis is $10.00. I would love to see a strong pullback to the gap fill at $131, but we will just have to see how this trades over the next week. My biggest concern with this trade comes from the monthly chart, which shows a failed bullish inside bar; this could mean the trade is going to run to the upside, as it did already by surging to close above $140 (May 2021 ATM) off that failed pattern. However, the monthly chart also shows this $140 areas should have significant resistance, based on a TL from pivot highs dating back to 2005 through 2021. These 2x factors combined to give me a neutral read on the monthly, which allowed me to pull the trigger on this trade. Thanks for stopping by, V
I could not pay attention to the markets today as much as I normally can (which, for the record, is not as much as I'd like to anyway!) -- but I paid enough attention to catch the pop. I closed 3x swing trades: ZM +30.84%, FSLY +14.78%, and SOFI +2.55% I also paid enough attention to notice my most recent pullback option plays are struggling; this is exactly why I give myself so much time on the clock by buying options that are 4/5/6 months out from expiration...so we'll see. I remain unconvinced with this bullish move; the signs are there, as it's happened 1) on very light volume; 2) typically in the afternoon; 3) for so many consecutive days; 4) over such a significant move; and 5) over such a short timeframe. That said, my portfolio is not big enough to accumulate small tranches over a prolonged time...as I can when I swing trade bounces. Therefore, I need to be more surgical in my adds. Here is what I am thinking: VRSK -- it's down 28% right now -- not entirely uncommon on options trades...but not the way I wanted the trade to work out either. And yet again, I let a winner turn into a loser. This was up between 5% - 12.5% last week on (yellow arrow)...but I missed those moves...and worse, by missing the move I allowed a bullish inside bar pattern form...which as you can see has now played out with today's breakout candle. Regardless of what the broader market does, this pattern should see at least a couple days of continuation...so I'm going to hold off adding to this trade until it hits resistance at $220. Ideally, it will move directly to this level...kiss $220...and then make the move lower. WELL -- this position is down 61.5% -- but there may be light at the end of the tunnel. First of all, and as I've pointed out in a previous post, I completely failed to see all that consolidation in mid-to-late 2021...I mean, what a stupid miss. The breakout we're seeing, therefore, is a no-brainer. That said, Those pivot highs on the weekly suggest we're at major resistance. Additionally, on the daily chart the move we are seeing now is virtually the same exact move (in terms of price action) from May - July 2021. So as I said, there may still just be a ray of light here. But given how this market continues to float up, I am going to hold tight until to see if this hits $100 before I add again. My other pullbacks -- AAPL, ALL, & CNI -- are still 'too new' to really add to them yet. AAPL is perhaps the closest...and it did, in fact, break that channel resistance TL after all (of course it did, HaHa!). Still, for me it is a no touch until it hits its double top around $183...which it very well may do just in the next 24 hours with how ridiculous this market is acting. Who knows... Oh, and I totally missed the move in AA today -- ugh! It opened up 17%...and I missed it. Thanks for stopping by, V
Too soon to tell, obviously, if today's little pullback is the beginning of the broader pullback. Regardless, the move caused me to add another tranche to my QID (basis now $17.59), as well as enter UVXY (basis $12.35). It also allowed me to roll my NOK covered calls to next week, and push my DAL covered calls to 9/16 (the pop this week sent these too far ITM, so I had to roll out further to get them back OTM while still taking more premium). Otherwise, not much else to say; those levels I identified for my most 'at risk' pullback option plays did not trigger...so I did not add to any of those positions. Thanks for stopping by, V
Nice pullback continuation today. I wasn't sure how today would trade, honestly, the last day of the quarter can just get weird...and this was by no means an 'ordinary' quarter. Of note, we saw finally saw average volume today on the SPY. Maybe this move will have conviction to it; we've gone through 8x trading days of only seeing 50% - 75% average volume. As for my trades today, I finally got out of a long position I've had in AMC +2.52%. I (unintentionally) entered this last year, after getting put shares during the WallStreetBets mania. Didn't know how long it would take for this one to pan out, but the pop earlier in the week sent the shares back ITM, so I set a trailing stop & it triggered today on the fade. Speaking of pops, I also rolled my CCL covered calls to 4/14 -- my contracts went ITM a couple days ago, so I pushed the expiration out a little and picked up another round of premium, reducing my underlying long position's basis. Thanks for stopping by, V
YTD Rollup: March 2022 Return on Risk: +32.62% Net Gain/Loss: +1,713.37% Russell: -8.91% S&P 500: -5.55% NASDAQ: -10.18% Total Trades: 135 Winners: 132 Losers: 3 Scorecard: 97.78% *** Keep in mind, I mainly trade deep OTM plays to reduce cost basis *** Summary: Closing several long positions to consolidate my trading portfolio onto a single platform, and the epic reversal in the Chinese tech stock, helped surge the numbers this month. Those gains also completely offset the 2x losers I had this past month, one being a 100% loss in FB puts as I tried to catch a falling knife a little too early without any ability whatsoever to average down. On that note, my main concern this year is the fact I have not really executed any risk discipline in terms of closing losing positions early / ahead of them turning into 100% losses. I have not quite figured out how to handle risk when it comes to my pullback put options. It's hard to close down a position when I've given myself 4/5/6 months for the trade to play out. In addition, since my entries are far from 'exact,' it is hard to truly discern if the trade has gone against me...or...if I just had a shitty entry. For example, all of my current option plays...even the ones down 50% or more...still show signs of life. And since I have so much time on the clock, it feels silly to close them...because why give myself so much time on the clock if I'm not going to use it? That's the entire point of giving myself time in the first place! What I believe this means is I need to get much more disciplined when it comes to those pullack put options (e.g. my entry & exit plan before I pull the trigger). If I can do that, then it should (in theory at least!) be more apparent when the trade just isn't going my way...and at that point 'giving up' on the trade may not feel so counterintuitive with so much time still on the clock. Finally, I have about 28% of my trading portfolio wrapped up in options, whereas my stated goal is 10%. Part of this is the fact I cannot short through Robinhood...yet this is a shorting market right now in my opinion...so what choice do I have. Still... Here are my current long positions; of note, I reduced my cost basis by 2.16%, which is a full point more than last month. Thanks for stopping by -- and good luck next month everyone, V
WTF just happened?!?! This trading stuff was supposed to be fun...a sure way to make millions, they said!!!! I LOST IT ALL TODAY...OMG...MY ACCOUNT...MY LIFE...IS BANKRUPT!!!! APRIL FOOLS Good start to April & this 3rd quarter. I took some risk off that table by closing my CNI pullback options play +33.36%. Quite the little pop at the end of the day...but I don't take much stock in it. The market is still overextended in the short term, and with each piece of good economic news, the Fed is getting what they need to execute a more aggressive rate hike plan. Once the market wakes up to that fact, we'll see the real pullback I'm expecting. I entered a swing trade in INTC today. My basis is $47.39 with 0.8% of my portfolio; I wanted to give myself plenty of room to add. Based on the weekly chart, we're back to the 2017 pivot high that kicked off it's 5-year run/chop. However, this could easily go to $45, which is both the 50% Fib retrace & a major support level during those 5-years....and it could just as easily go to the 61.8% Fib retrace (which is also where pivots highs from 2015 and 2016 sit). So again, giving my portfolio plenty of room here to accumulate if this trends lower to $45 - $38. We'll see... Beyond that, I rolled my BABA puts to next week, staying at the $90 level. I'll continuing writing these puts as long as the premium is there below the $100 level. If the price comes ITM, then I'll have a decision to make. I'd be fine getting put the shares at $90, but based on the chart I might try to roll them out & lower...time will tell if we come to that point. Thanks for stopping by -- and good luck to everyone this quarter! V
Yet another float on very light volume. I still don't buy into this; small investors buying/selling to other small investors. What happened on the only day in recent history when we had average volume? A sell off. Just keep that in mind... I closed my ALL pulback options play +15% -- probably more downside here, but taking profits & not getting ready. My trade in INTC went up sooner than I expected (as you can read above, I thought we'd see more downside first), so I set a trailing stop & I'll just let that one play out. The next wave of surging Chinese tech allowed me to roll my BABA Friday puts from $90 to $100 while taking even more credit; if I'm put the shares, great -- I'll glad take them! I also managed to sell my weekly covered calls in F which I couldn't get filled on Friday. I opened 2x new pullback option plays today: JKHY & BMY JKHY -- I highlighted this name the past couple of weeks via the "what's on your radar?" threat. Today, it remained up in that double top area and put in a nice doji. I really like how the move it just made is similar to 2x moves its made before. My biggest concern with this trade is the fact the stock does not do a lot of daily volume. When I get a decent pullback, then I'll exit; I don't want to hang around in this name for too long. Light volume, to me, suggests any institution could come in here and manipulate the price pretty easily. BMY -- I'm back in this stock. Just like the above, making similar moves as it has before, coming into major resistance, hopefully put in a beautiful topping tail today, and quite simply looks way overextended on the shorter timeframe. My biggest concern here, learned from the last time I played this name, is the fact it just doesnt make big daily moves. So again, just like the above, when I get a decent kind of pullback here, I will exit. Thanks for stopping by, V
Busy little day today on this nice little pullback. Trading volume remained just shy of average, but more than yesterday, and sure enough we saw downside. With the Fed tomorrow, it's anyone's guess what'll happen... I decided to close my long USO position +273.70%, which I entered back in April 2020. I just cannot see oil making a higher high, but I see plenty of downside risk, so...I closed. I had 2x trailing stops trigger today: ABIO +32.57% and INTC +3.34%. The former was honestly a small cap gamble I took back on March 31st...but it certainly paid off...I'll look to re-enter once it makes its way back to the $1.75 range again. Speaking of gambles, I tried another opening bell gap trade. My last gap trade ended up a loser, but this one on STLA closed +0.27% -- not bad for 20 minutes. Finally, I decided to shut down my options play on CLSK +23.79%; this was a play where I bought a deep ITM LEAP call and then sold monthly covered calls against it. I decided to shut this down because this really only works when the stock price gradually moves up as you sell as many weekly covered calls as you can until the ITM LEAP expiration date. In this case, the price shot through my covered calls, causing me to have to roll them all the way out to Sept contracts. While this meant my deep ITM LEAP also shot up in value, it obviously made collecting any recurring premium impossible. So, as soon as the stock price came back to just slightly OTM, I bought back the Sept covered call (for a small loss) and sold back the deep ITM LEAP (for a big gain). As far as putting money back to work, and as I mentioned in the Daily Discussion thread, I did end up shorting UNG with 1% of my trading portfolio using $20 puts on 10/21 expiration (basis $3.10); additionally, I bought KOLD with another 1% of my portfolio (basis $13.59). Lastly, and perhaps in a way despite myself, I added to my VRSK pullback option play; my basis is now $8.15...I really need to think through my contrarian options strategy... Thanks for stopping by, V
Oops -- missed posting last night -- sorry! Busy couple days for me here, quite a few trades to cover: Closed my UVXY swing trade +18.70% as the VIX popped with yesterday's continued pullback Closed my AAPL pullback options play +16.67% on yesterday's complete reversal in the tech pop Entered a pullback options play in AEP (mentioned this set up in the "What's On Your Radar" thread) using 8/19 puts...then closed the position today +13.33% Entered a new pullback options play in SO (mentioned this set up in the "What's On Your Radar" thread as well) -- I used 8/19 Puts and my basis is $3.65 Closed my AA pullback options play +7.51% around mid-morning today -- potentially more downside here, but this one went against me for a while and commodities in general are volatile right now...so not going to let a winner turn into a loser (as I already did once already in this trade!) Added to my BMY pullback options play at the closing bell today -- basis is now $4.00 Added to my WELL pullback options play at the closing bell today -- basis is now $4.01 Rolled my BABA puts out a week, lowering the strike to $95 while picking up another week's worth of premium I'm very interested to see if retail investors are willing to hold onto risk going into the weekend, since in my opinion they've been the ones floating this market higher over the past couple weeks, evidenced by day-after-day of light volume. Guess we'll have our answer in less than 24 hours! Thanks for stopping by, V
Spent the day accumulating within my contrarian positions. Looks like SPY & IWM kinda-sorta held up today, but definitely not the QQQ...cannot say I'm surprised given how much tech got floated up the past month. Added to my BMY pulback options play -- basis is now $3.75 on about 2.6% of my trading portfolio. Such an extended move into so much technical resistance on the daily & weekly chart (used the weekly below just to show the larger timeframe at play here). Ridiculous RSI...almost 89 on the daily & 82 on the weekly....insane! Also added to KOLD position as natgas popped this morning -- basis is now $13.05 on about 1.25% of my trading portfolio. I tried to add to my UNG pullback option play (basis is $3.10 on roughly 0.7% of my portfolio), but could not get filled at a level I wanted. We'll see what happens over the weekend & if I can/want to try again. Given how oil went below $100 this week, I believe it is only a matter of time until natgas follows suit. Beyond that, quiet day here -- thanks for stopping by, V
Weekly Rollup: April 4 - 8, 2022 Trades: 20 Winners: 20 Losers: 0 Summary: Solid week across both my investment (coverd calls) & trading (swing trades & pullback options) portfolios. My entry points continue to be a little early, and my account is not big enough for me to dollar cost average into the option plays in the same way I can the swing trades. I may have to forgo the pullback plays on contracts over $10, until my account grows some more...or if I'm going to pull the trigger on a more expensive option chain, I need to wait until the stock price is better positions for the trade vs. getting in early so I "don't miss it." All of this I already know...but putting all my preaching into practice is the hard part, right? Still, I took profits, and in doing so a lot of risk, off the table this week when I could in AA, AAPL, AEP, ALL, & CNI. Next Week: I'm still looking for more downside in this market, but we'll have to see what the charts are showing as I go through my screens this weekend. I have a few big pullback plays still very much underwater, so those names should feel free to turnaround whenever they want...but hopefully sooner rather than later! I think the central/consistent theme here is the need to be more selective in my trades... A lot of movement in my trading portfolio over the past couple weeks, so here are my latest positions; this account is approximate 55% invested: Hope everyone had a great week -- thanks for stopping by, V
